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Monday 4 September 2023

Is Putin's fracturing 'siloviki' willing to continue supporting him?

It was as inevitable as the sun rises in the East and sets in the West that the proliferation of 'armchair' military pundits in this internet age would be told to "shut up or put up" regarding Ukraine's counter-offensive against Putin's invading army on Ukrainian soil.

As reported by Steve Cannane and Riley Stuart,

"When Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba (left) last week told critics of his country's counteroffensive to "shut up", accusing them of "spitting in the faces" of frontline soldiers, it was obvious who his fury was directed at.
...
During a visit to Spain last week, Mr Kuleba dared those unnamed critics to "come to Ukraine and try to liberate one square centimetre by themselves".
(ABC News (AU) : 3 September 2023) (my emphasis)

Dmytro Kuleba's pointed remark that these 'amrchair military pundits', amongst whom can be counted many 'retired' generals, are "spitting in the faces" of Ukraine's frontline forces, comes against the backdrop of the critical advances that Ukraine's army is making as they head towards severing Putin's supply lines from feeding his shambolic army.


DW News : 3 September 2023 : YouTube
 

Dylan Donnelly : Express : 2 September 2023

As reported by Tom Watling (left),

"Ukrainian forces have breached a second Russian defensive position in almost as many weeks as part of one of their two main parts of the counter attack, geolocated footage has shown.

Ukrainian soldiers were spotted in the northern areas of Zavitne Bazhannya earlier this week but conclusive, geolocated footage appeared on Saturday (September 2).

The village is the next vertebrae along a spinal attack from Velyka Novosilka in the north down to Berdyansk on the Sea of Azov; the aim is to reach the coast and split the Russian land bridge from Crimea to far eastern Ukraine, isolating around 100,000 of Vladimir Putin’s troops."
(Express : 2 September 2023) (my emphasis)

Underscoring Ukraine's critical counter-offensive advances, James Callery informs us that,

"Vladimir Putin is scrambling to draft mercenaries from Armenia and Kazakhstan to plug the gaps in troop numbers fighting in Ukraine.


Mail Online : 4 September 2023

Moscow has suffered heavy troop losses since the war in Ukraine began 18 months ago and the total number of Russian and Ukrainian troops killed or wounded is nearing 500,000, US officials said.
...
The [UK] MoD said Uzbek migrant builders in Mariupol have reportedly had their passports confiscated upon arrival and been coerced to join the Russian military."
(Mail Online : 4 September 2023) (my emphasis) 

It is not only on the war front that Putin is failing, nor his frantic desperation to recruit more soldiers to replace those currently been lost in Ukraine, but also his desperation on the economic front that his war in Ukraine is having on the waning strength of the ruble.

As reported by the Washington Post (Analysis by Bloomberg News),

"The ruble has slumped so severely this year that Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a rare verbal intervention, telling the central bank and government to work together to halt outflows and ease volatility in financial markets. The currency, among the worst performers in emerging markets in 2023, has suffered from a deterioration in foreign trade amid a raft of international sanctions over its war in Ukraine. The plunge threatens to exacerbate inflation, eating into living standards ahead of what’s meant to be a showcase presidential election, and has already revived discussions about whether to reimpose some capital controls." (Washington Post : 1 September 2023) (my emphasis)

DW News : 21 August 2023 : YouTube

For how much longer Putin can keep aloft the increasing weight of his mounting  failures depends now on whether his fracturing 'siloviki' are willing to continue to support him.  

UPDATE 1 : 5 September 2023 

Mark Galleoti has just reported that,

"Yesterday morning, I received a revealing text message from an American general. ‘I think I spoke too soon and was too downbeat,’ he wrote.

He was referring to a conversation we’d had a fortnight ago, in which he gloomily told me there was little chance of a meaningful advance by Ukrainian troops against their Russian invaders before next spring.

[ ]....following three months of fierce fighting and weeks of painstaking mine clearance, Ukrainian forces have decisively breached Russia’s first defensive line near Zaporizhzhia in the south-east of the country.

This is not only a major military breakthrough that could, in time, split Russia’s occupied territory in two. It is also a sharp rebuttal to recent anonymous grumbles from some quarters of the international military and political community about Ukrainian fighting tactics being less than efficient."
(Mail Online : 5 September 2023) (my emphasis)

Mail Online : 5 September 2023

UPDATE 2 : 5 September 2023

And as the Ukrainian army continues to prove all those western 'armchair' generals wrong, Aljazeera reports that,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin has reiterated his stance on reinstating a United Nations-brokered deal to safely ship Ukrainian grain across the Black Sea only after the West meets Moscow’s demands on its agricultural exports.

The Russian president’s remarks on Monday came after a meeting with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the Black Sea city of Sochi in the hope of reviving the agreement seen as vital for global food supplies, especially in Africa, the Middle East and Asia." (Aljazeera : 4 September 2023) (my emphasis)

No doubt Putin's political rebuff of Turkey's President Erdogan regarding a resumption of supplying Africa, the Middle East, and Asia, with much needed grain will not 'politically' sit well with those countries seriously affected by Putin's blockade of Ukraine's critical grain supplies to the world.

Aljazeera : 4 September 2023

UPDATE 3 : 5 September 2023

Following on from the report of James Callery that, "Vladimir Putin is scrambling to draft mercenaries from Armenia and Kazakhstan to plug the gaps in troop numbers fighting in Ukraine.", Alarabiya News now informs us that,

"Cuba has identified an alleged human trafficking ring aimed at recruiting its citizens to fight in Russia’s war in Ukraine, the foreign ministry said Monday.

The government was working to dismantle a “trafficking network that operates from Russia to incorporate Cuban citizens living there, and even some from Cuba, into the military forces involved in military operations in Ukraine”, the ministry said in a statement.

The Cuban government had initiated criminal proceedings against those carrying out the trafficking, it added."
(Alarabiya News : 5 September 2023) (my emphasis) 

This serves to further underscore Putin's desperation as the Ukrainian army continues its inexorable advance towards the Sea of Azov.

 
 
 
(to be continued)

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