Is Putin tottering on the edge of the abyss of a "Black Swan" event?

 As was to be expected, German Chancellor Sholtz's visit to China, besides including a vast German business delegation, also included a joint 'peace' plan with Chinese president Xi Jinping to resolve Putin's war with Ukraine.

So what does this 'peace' plan envisage.

The Chinese Daily sets it out as follows :-

"Chinese President Xi Jinping on Tuesday proposed four principles to prevent the Ukraine crisis from spiraling out of control and to restore peace at an early date.
...

• "First, we should prioritize the upholding of peace and stability and refrain from seeking selfish gains.
  
• Second, we should cool down the situation and not add fuel to the fire. 
• Third, we need to create conditions for the restoration of peace and refrain from further exacerbating tensions. 
• Fourth, we should reduce the negative impact on the world economy and refrain from undermining the stability of global industrial and supply chains," Xi said." (China Daily : 16 April 2024) (my emphasis)

To whom does "refrain from seeking selfish gains." really refer?

Does it refer to Putin's illegal annexation of Crimea and the Donbas in 2014, and his currently invaded territory of Ukraine? 

Or does it refer to Ukraine's President Zelensky's demand that Putin's forces be removed forthwith from ALL illegally occupied Ukrainian territory, INCLUDING Crimea. 

To whom does the "not add fuel to the fire" refer? 

Putin's relentless and indiscriminate bombing of Ukraine?

OR to the support being given to Ukraine by the US, the EU, Britain, and other western countries?

To whom does, "refrain from further exacerbating tensions."? Putin or Ukraine or Ukraine's allies?

The fourth Xi Jinping principle is really about the critical state of the economies of BOTH Germany and China, rather than about "peace in Ukraine".

Agence France-Presse (AFP) on Microsoft Start: 16 April 2024: CGTN News Video

 DW News : 16 Aprril 2024 : YouTube

 Which brings into sharp focus, as reported by  Michelle Shen and Melanie Zanona (left),

"House Speaker Mike Johnson (right) said Sunday he will move forward with a vote on additional Israel aid but did not go into specifics about his plans as he walks a knife’s edge with conservatives over the potential inclusion of Ukraine funding.
...
 “Congress should be clear: no action by Iran or Israel merits a vote on the Ukraine omnibus the Senate seeks,” GOP Rep. Warren Davidson wrote on social media.

The pressure campaign from Johnson’s right flank comes amid bipartisan calls — including from GOP Leader Mitch McConnell — to take up the Senate-passed foreign package that includes money for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, arguing that is the fastest way to get aid to Israel." (CNN : 14 Apil 2024) (my emphasis)

As Putin continues to accellerate his continued indiscriminate and ruthless bombing of the Ukrainian people and Ukraine's critical infrastructure, Zelensky is urging immediate help from western allies citing the recent immediate and successful  military assistance given to Israel to defend itself against the missiles and Shaheed drones that Iran unleashed against Israel.  

 As reported by AFP on News 24,

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky urged allies on Monday to show the same "unity" toward Ukraine as Israel, which said it repelled an Iranian attack over the weekend with Western support.

Ukraine has in recent months grown increasingly frustrated at delays in Western aid, including air defences it says are urgently needed to repel deadly Russian attacks.

In a post on Telegram, Zelensky thanked allies who had responded to Ukraine's call for more air defences but said: "The intensity of Russian attacks requires greater unity." (AFP on News 24 : 16 April 2024) (my emphasis) 

(cf also: "Czech politicians say Ukraine should get same support as Israel after Iran strike" : Aneta Zachová : Euroactiv : 16 April 2024)

Metro : 16 April 2024

What lends even more urgency to Zelensky's call for immediate military aid is the fact that, as reported by Euronews,

"The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency said attacks against Europe’s largest nuclear power plant have put the world “dangerously close to a nuclear accident”.

Without attributing blame, IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said his agency has been able to confirm three attacks against the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant since 7 April." (Euronews :  16 April 2024) (my emphasis)

Chancellor Scholtz, having emboldened Xi Jinping regarding his sights on Taiwan, and having yet again drawn back from giving Ukraine the necessary critical missiles to defend itself against Putin's frantic and dangerous assault on Ukraine, is singing from the same 'pro Putin' hymn sheet as the many Republican members of Congress who are  currently witholding critical US support for Ukraine.

And Putin is now dangerously tottering on the precipice of falling into a "Black Swan Event" whose effects very few will be able to escape from.

UPDATE 1: 17 April 2024

Finally it is becoming glaringly and abundantly clear, as Barbara Moens, Jacopo Barigazzi and Nicholas Vinocur (left) report,

"Two conflicts will compete for the attention of EU leaders meeting for a summit this week. There is one — Ukraine — where they can make a difference, and another — Iran-Israel — where they can’t.

It seems paradoxical, then, that the Middle East — a theater of war where the U.S. is infinitely more influential than Europe — will probably consume more attention than Ukraine — an EU candidate country that is desperately pleading for more European assistance as the tide turns against it, and Russian forces pummel Kharkiv, its second city." (Politico : 17 April 2024) (my emphasis)

This should come as no surprise. 

As I wrote in the first entry of my blog on Tuesday 10 June 2014,

• "Angela Merkel, the scientist Chancellor of Germany, is coldly and dispassionately upholding the ghost of the Treaty of Rapallo, wringing her hands in anguish while Putin tramples over the rights of the Ukrainian people. Is it any wonder that Gerhard Schroeder, the Chancellor of Germany when that export deal was struck in 1992, fondly embraced Putin at his recent 70th birthday party bash?

• But what about the other members of the EU? Cyprus is like a cat on a hot tin roof, not knowing what it will do if all that stolen Russian money wings its way out of her banks.

• Can the young Matteo Renzi face up to the howling of Italian businessmen not to jeopardize their sucking on the teats of the corrupt Russian cow?" (blog entry 10 June 2014)

Is there anything new under the sun?

 

(to be continued)

Putin is now drinking at the last chance saloon

The critical situation facing Ukraine, brought about by its diminishing supplies of ammunition and air defences, lies firmly at the feet of certain EU members, but particularly Chancellor Scholtz and the German SPD party, together with the fascist German AFD party, refusing to give Ukraine the Taurus missile that would be a game changer against Putin's relentless onslaught against the people of Ukraine.

As Andrew Naughtie & Tamsin Paternoster (left) reported more than a month ago,

"Scholz's government has lately been resisting pressure to share one of its most powerful military assets with the Ukrainians just when they need it most.
...
According to Benjamin Tallis, Senior Fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations,"Following the Taurus leak, it seems that what Scholz is really afraid of is the weapon's effectiveness. This betrays his position of not wanting Ukraine to win – and it's an approach that lets down all Europeans by making us less safe." (Euronews : 6 March 2024) (my emphasis) 

What further betrays Scholz's position of not wanting Ukraine to win is the recent relocation of 5,000 German troops to Lithuania "amid mounting concerns about a potential attack from Moscow, whose Kaliningrad enclave borders Lithuania, along with its ally Belarus. (Euronews : 29 February 2024) (my emphasis)" (cf also: blog entry 6 March 2024)

Meanwhile, in the United States, the Republican Party, following the dogmatic decree of Donald Trump, continues to withold critical aid to Ukraine that will also serve as a game changer in Ukraine's defence against Putin's current frantic attemp to bomb Ukraine into total submission.

So much so that Putin's glove puppet, Dmitry Medvedev, also warns against the US supplying Ukraine with the necessary ammunition and military equipment that could halt Putin's near demented bombing campaign against the people of Ukraine.

As the Hindustan Times reports,

"Vladimir Putin's ally and ex-Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has lambasted Joe Biden. Medvedev warned the U.S. President of an apocalypse after his Ukraine remark. The claim that the conflict with Moscow could be ended with more American weapons is a call for slaughter, the former Russian president said. On April 10, Biden reiterated his call to the U.S. Congress to release $60 billion in aid for Ukraine. Biden said the Ukraine war could end if the house leader allows a vote." (Hindustan Times : 11 April 2024) (my emphasis)

Hindustan Times : 12 April 2024 : YouTube 

 As General Sir Richard Barrons (left) also points out,  

"Ukraine is not yet at that point [of conceding defeat].

But its forces are running critically low on ammunition, troops and air defences. Its much-heralded counter-offensive last year failed to dislodge the Russians from ground they had seized and now Moscow is gearing up for a summer offensive.

So what will that look like and what are its likely strategic objectives?

"The shape of the Russian offensive that's going to come is pretty clear," says Gen Barrons.

"We are seeing Russia batter away at the front line, employing a five-to-one advantage in artillery, ammunition, and a surplus of people reinforced by the use of newish weapons." (Frank Gardner : BBC News : 13 April 2024) (my emphasis)

Emboldened by his current onslaught against the people of Ukraine, Putin now views any international attempt to convene a peace conference to try and end his war with Ukraine with utter contempt.

As reported by the Associated Press (AP),

"Russia’s President Vladimir Putin on Thursday mocked a scheduled round of Ukraine peace talks in Switzerland, warning that Moscow will not accept any enforced plans that ignore its interests." (Associated Press (AP): 12 April 2024) (my emphasis)

The AP goes on to report,

"Russia has dismissed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s peace formula requiring Moscow to pull back its troops, pay compensation to Ukraine and face an international tribunal for its action.

Speaking during Thursday’s meeting with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in Moscow, Putin said that Russia is open for negotiations, but will never accept “any schemes that have nothing to do with reality.”" (ibid Associated Press (AP))

(Associated Press (AP): 12 April 2024)

Sam Ormiston also reports that,

"Vladimir Putin has claimed that Russia is open to peace talks, but only if they are held on Moscow's terms.
...
"He also denied that Russia was responsible for attacks on energy infrastructure in Ukraine, despite evidence to the contrary." " (13 April 2024) (my emphasis)

Indeed, Putin's current 'emboldment' is leading him to come perilously close to precipitating a confrontation with NATO.

As reported by Katie Boyden (left),

"NATO jets have been scrambled this morning over Russia’s latest missile and drone attack on Ukraine.

The NATO planes were scrambled to defend Poland’s airspace as Russia used long-range rocket strikes to attack Ukraine in a five-hour bombardment.

Late last month the Polish prime minister warned ‘we are in a pre-war era’ as Vladimir Putin’s missiles struck close to its border." (Metro : 11 April 2024) (my emphasis)

Katie Boyden goes on to further report that,

"[Putin's] latest attack [against Ukraine] comes amid concerns that Putin could be planning for a war with NATO ‘sooner than expected’ – before mocking the military alliance." (ibid Katie Boyden)

 It is this potential showdown between Putin and NATO that is, as Ian Casey and Jonathan Beale report,

"A UK high-power laser weapon could be sent to Ukraine to take down Russian drones, the defence secretary says.
...
The greatest advantage of lasers is cost and, in theory, an "unlimited magazine" of ammunition - as long as there is a reliable source of power. But the big drawback is that they can only fire at targets in the line of sight, unlike most missiles.
...
The MoD says firing the DragonFire system for 10 seconds is the cost equivalent of using a regular heater for an hour, with the operating expense typically less than £10 a shot." (BBC News : 12 April 2024) (my emphasis)

 Putin may be 'emboldened' to threaten NATO, but he is not 'emoldened' enough to actually cross NATO'S Article 5 red line viz. 

"The principle aims to deter potential adversaries from attacking NATO members. Article 5 guarantees that the resources of the whole alliance can be used to protect any single member nation. This is crucial for many of the smaller countries who would be defenseless without their allies." (CNN :  Paul LeBlanc : 7 March 2024) 

Putin's current indiscriminate and heavy bombardment against the people of Ukraine yet again indicates that he is 'Drinking at the last chance saloon'. 

 

Times Radio : 22 March 2024 : YouTube 

 

(to be continued) 

Putin is now dangerously tottering on the edge of the abyss into the unknown.

The ramping up of Putin's brutal onslaught against Ukraine through his continuous bombing of civilian targets in Ukraine has revealed a startling truth about some EU countries sitting on their hands in making good on their promises to supply Zelensky with much needed ammunition and air defence systems.

As reported by David Axe (left),

"Seven weeks after Czech defense policy chief Jan Jires announced his government had identified 800,000—later, a million—artillery shells that Ukraine’s allies could buy for Ukraine, Estonian defense minister Hanno Pevkur said his own government had found another million shells and rockets for Ukraine.
...
With 2.5 million additional shells and rockets through the end of the year, the Ukrainians could match Russia’s own ammo supply, Pevkur claimed. It would be the first time in a year that the Ukrainians could fire as many shells and rockets as the Russians could fire." (Forbes : 7 April 2024) (my emphasis)

David Axe goes on to report that,

"Exactly where Estonia might source the shells and rockets, Pevkur wouldn’t specify. “Mainly from non-European countries,” he said, “but there are also some in Europe." (ibid David Axe)

And as Al Jazeera reported in mid March of this year,

"Ukraine is running out of ammunitionammunition and NATO members are not doing enough to help Kyiv, the alliance’s secretary-general, Jens Stoltenberg (right), has said, in unusually blunt comments about the state of the war.

“Unprecedented aid from NATO allies has helped Ukraine survive as an independent nation. But Ukraine needs even more support and they need it now,” Stoltenberg told reporters at NATO headquarters in Brussels on Thursday." (Al Jazeera : 14 March 2024) (my emphasis) 

Adding to the urgency of supplying Ukraine with ammunition and air defence equipment to counter Putin's bombs raining down on the people of Ukraine, Dmitry Medvedev, Putin's glove-puppet, is further making  some EU members 'cower' before Putin as he once again threatens 'nuclear armageddon',

As the Hindustan Times reports,

 "The Russian Security Council's deputy chairman, Dmitry Medvedev, issued a chilling threat to the US-led NATO bloc if they deploy troops in Ukraine. Medvedev said that the deployment of foreign forces in Ukraine would lead to a dangerous escalation. He said all NATO soldiers would be treated as enemies, and "We should take no prisoners! .." (Hindustan Times : 5 April 2024) (my emhasis)

(Hindustan Times : 5 April 2024 ; YouTube)

Underlining the 'fear of Putin', the Hindustan Times reports that,

"The New York Times reported that the U.S. and Germany will oppose the NATO membership of Ukraine during the bloc's summit in Washington in July. It added that the two nations fear that the U.S.-led bloc will be dragged into the 'biggest land war since 1945' with Russia if Ukraine joins NATO." (Hindustan Times : 6 April 2024) (my emphasis)

(Hindustan Times : 6 April 2024 : YouTube)

And as I reported in my blog entry (6 March 2024) about German Chancellor Scholtz's 'fear of Putin' in particular,

"Scholz's government has lately been resisting pressure to share one of its most powerful military assets with the Ukrainians just when they need it most.
...

According to Benjamin Tallis, Senior Fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations,"Following the Taurus leak, it seems that what Scholz is really afraid of is the weapon's effectiveness. This betrays his position of not wanting Ukraine to win – and it's an approach that lets down all Europeans by making us less safe." (Andrew Naughtie & Tamsin Paternoster Euronews : 6 March 2024) (my emphasis)

This fear  rings rather hollow, and has more to do with Willy Brandt's 'Ostpolitik' of the 1970's that mirrored,

"The Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact of 1939 [that] defied ideological differences and established trade and geopolitical agreements between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union." (Wikipedia)

And whilst some of Zelensky's erstwhile 'supporters' in the EU continue to withold funding the purchase of the necessary ammunition and air defence sytems to protect the people of Ukraine from Putin's accelerrated rain of bombs against them, Tommaso Lecca  reports that,

"There will be "significant consequences" for China if its companies "support Russia's war against Ukraine," U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned Saturday.

Yellen's statement following talks in Guangzhou came after U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Thursday at NATO headquarters in Brussels that "China continues to provide materials to support Russia's defense industrial base." " (Politico : 6 April 2024) (my emphasis)

Bloomberg Television : 6 April 2024 : YouTube

 

But as David Morgan reports"Infighting among Republicans who control the U.S. House of Representatives, and a threat to oust Speaker Mike Johnson from his leadership role, have put him under pressure, to further delay action on a long-sought aid bill for Ukraine, Israel and other key allies. " (Reuters : 5 April 2024) (my emphasis) As John T Psaropoulos also reports,“If there is no US support, it means that we have no air defence, no Patriot missiles, no jammers for electronic warfare, no 155-millimetre artillery rounds,” he said. “It means we will go back, retreat, step by step, in small steps.”Some $60.1bn in United States military aid the administration of Joe Biden requested last December has been stalled by a small group of lawmakers loyal to former President Donald Trump, who hopes to return to power in the November election. [said Ukraine's President Zelensky]" (Al Jazeera : 4 Aptil 2024) (my emphasis)Putin and his 'inner-inner siloviki' (read Patruschev and Shoigu) know that Ukraine can fully scupper their current inch-by-inch military advancement PROVIDED critical ammunition and arms shipments to Ukraine does not falter.As NATO Chief Jens Stoltenberg urged in mid March of this year, "But Ukraine needs even more support and they need it now" (cf Al Jazeera 14 March 2024)Putin's desperation to bomb the people of Ukraine into total submision is a desperation brought about by his knowing that time is not on his side.Putin is now dangerously tottering on the edge of the abyss into the unknown.UPDATE : 8 March : 03.52 am Ian Aikman reports that,

"A new drone attack on Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia power plant has raised the risk of a "major nuclear accident", the UN's atomic watchdog has warned.
...
Mr Grossi specified there had been "at least three direct hits" against the plant's "main reactor containment structures".

"This cannot happen," he said. "No one can conceivably benefit or get any military or political advantage from attacks against nuclear facilities. This is a no go."" (BBC News : 8 April 2024) (my emphasis)

The ink has hardly dried on this blog entry when Putin's irrational and dangerous behaviour is on full view for the whole world to see.UPDATE 2: 9 April 2024Tom Watling, Arpan Rai, and Barney Davis report that,

"The US warned against Russia’s “dangerous game” after the reactor building at the occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in eastern Ukraine was damaged in a “kamikaze” drone attack.
...
 Mr Miller repeated America’s call on Russia to end the occupation of Europe’s largest nuclear facility which is facing heavy crossfiring amid the Russian invasion." (The Independent : 9 April 2024) (my emphasis)

They further report that,

"French foreign minister Stéphane Séjourné has said that it was no longer “in Paris’s interest” to hold discussions with the Russian government as Moscow manipulates the content and coverage of their bilateral talks.

This has now brought the “long tradition of cooperation with Russia in the fight against terrorism” to a grinding halt, the minister said." (ibid Tom Watling, Arpan Rai, and Barney Davis)

 

(to be continued)

Is Putin beginning to be eclipsed by his inner-inner circle emerging onto the international stage?

It should come as no surprise that both Putin and Donald Trump are flailing in their efforts to keep their heads above water as they continue to drown.

In the case of Putin it is obvious that, together with his health problems now forcing members of his 'inner-circle siloviki' to emerge from the shadows onto the international stage, Putin is having to employ the full force of his propaganda machine to stir up public hatred against Ukraine in the wake of the recent deadly ISIS assault on a concert venue in Moscow that left at least 137 people dead.

In the case of Donald Trump, his attempts to disguise his illegal paying off of a porn star to keep quiet about their affair during his first US presidential election campaign in 2016, a US presidential campaign aided and abbeted throughout by Putin himself, is now coming up for trial on April 15th.

As Marc Champion (left) explains,

"So it’s no surprise that conspiracy theories are multiplying just five days after terrorists murdered at least 139 people at a Moscow concert hall.

What’s different this time is the role of the state in spreading this nonsense, because the reality is so much more banal and .... so much harder to explain: A spectacular level of incompetence married, as I’ve written previously, to a destructive paranoia at the pinnacle of the Russian state." (Bloomberg UK : 28 March 2024) (my emphasis)

As Bloomberg UK reports,

"While Vladimir Putin continues to argue that Ukraine may have had a role in the Moscow attack that killed 139 people, some of the Russian president’s own inner circle disagree with him.
.....

Putin was present at discussions where officials agreed there’s no link to Kyiv, but remains determined to use the tragedy to try to rally Russians behind the war in Ukraine, according to one person with knowledge of the situation, asking not to be identified because the matter is sensitive." (Bloomberg UK : 26 March 2024) (my emphasis)

It is also no wonder that, as reported by Guy Faulconbridge,

"The North Atlantic Alliance is de-facto a party to the Ukrainian conflict and is actively  involved in organising the shelling of Russian territories," Patrushev (right) told the Argumenty I Fakty newspaper." (Reuters : 2 April 2024) (my emphasis)

whilst Associated Press (AP) reports that,

"Russia’s defense minister warned his French counterpart against deploying troops to Ukraine in a rare phone call Wednesday and noted that Moscow is ready to take part in talks to end the conflict.
Sergei Shoigu (left) told French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu that if Paris follows up on its statements about the possibility of sending a French military contingent to Ukraine, “it will create problems for France itself,” according to a statement from the Russian Defense Ministry. It didn’t elaborate." (Associated Press:3 April 2024) (my emphasis)

What is rather interesting is that Shoigu is stating that, "Moscow is ready to take part in talks to end the conflict.".

Could this inernationally public 'political boldness' of Shoigu have anything to do with the fact that, as reported by Charlie Bradley,

"A former MI6 boss said of Putin that "something [is] fundamentally wrong with him medically" as rumours of cancer and Parkinson's continue to spread.

Vladimir Putin's health has been the subject of speculation for years, with rumours suggesting he may have cancer, Parkinson's or some other health complication.

Independent Russian media outlets have even reported that Putin travels with a large group of health professionals, including oncologists." (Express : 31 March 2024) (my emphasis)And whilst Shoigu is stating that Moscow is ready to talk peace to end Putin's war with Ukraine, Maxim Rodionov reports that,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree setting out the routine spring conscription campaign, calling up 150,000 citizens for statutory military service, a document posted on the Kremlin's website showed on Sunday.
...
In July Russia's lower house of parliament voted to raise the maximum age at which men can be conscripted to 30 from 27. The new legislation came into effect on Jan. 1, 2024." (Reuters : 31 March 2024) (my emphasis)

Charlie Bradley (left) further reports that,

"Russia is on the verge of turning against Vladimir Putin as the country's economy is running out of ways to fend off crippling Western sanctions, experts have warned.
...
Putin has managed to minimise the damage to Russia's economy so far by burning through his cash reserves.

But Yales researchers and economists Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and Steven Tian warned the lives of Russian citizens will soon get a lot more difficult." (Daily Express : 1 April 2024) (my emphasis) 

Info Flow : 2 April 2024 : YouTube

 

WION : 29 March 2024 : YouTube

How the growing economic difficulties of the people of Russia, brought about by Putin's war with Ukraine, will affect the 2024 military call-up of Russian men now remains to be seen.

Let us remind ourselves that thousands of potential Russian conscripts fled the country during a previous military call-up and are now languishing in foreign countries, too afraid to return back to Putin's Russia.

The fact that the age limit of compulsory conscription has been raised by Putin from 27 to 30 signals that his supply of cannon fodder for his war with Ukraine is precarious.

Added to which, and as reported by Cameron Henderson,

"Kyiv will destroy the Kerch bridge connecting Russian to occupied Crimea “in the first half of 2024”, a senior official in Ukraine’s military intelligence service has said.

Razing the bridge is “inevitable”, the unnamed source told the Guardian, adding that Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the military intelligence, already had “most of the means to carry out this goal”.

Officials believe that permanently damaging the bridge would significantly impair the Kremlin’s ability to carry out a spring offensive as Moscow would be forced to transport military supplies by road through occupied southern Ukraine, or via a new 450-mile railway line that is under construction." (The Telegraph : 3 April 2024) (my emphasis)

 

CRUX : 4 April 2024 : YouTube

One can only begin to imagine what effect the destruction of the Kerch Bridge, Putin's legacy of physically joining Russia to Crimea, will have on Putin's state of mind.

Indeed, one should now consider what the destruction of the Kerch Bridge will have on Patruschev and Shoigu, members of Putin's inner-inner circle who already seem to be eyeing the reigns of power as Putin's health continues to deteriorate.

 

(to be continued)