Is Putin tottering on the edge of the abyss of a "Black Swan" event?

 As was to be expected, German Chancellor Sholtz's visit to China, besides including a vast German business delegation, also included a joint 'peace' plan with Chinese president Xi Jinping to resolve Putin's war with Ukraine.

So what does this 'peace' plan envisage.

The Chinese Daily sets it out as follows :-

"Chinese President Xi Jinping on Tuesday proposed four principles to prevent the Ukraine crisis from spiraling out of control and to restore peace at an early date.
...

• "First, we should prioritize the upholding of peace and stability and refrain from seeking selfish gains.
  
• Second, we should cool down the situation and not add fuel to the fire. 
• Third, we need to create conditions for the restoration of peace and refrain from further exacerbating tensions. 
• Fourth, we should reduce the negative impact on the world economy and refrain from undermining the stability of global industrial and supply chains," Xi said." (China Daily : 16 April 2024) (my emphasis)

To whom does "refrain from seeking selfish gains." really refer?

Does it refer to Putin's illegal annexation of Crimea and the Donbas in 2014, and his currently invaded territory of Ukraine? 

Or does it refer to Ukraine's President Zelensky's demand that Putin's forces be removed forthwith from ALL illegally occupied Ukrainian territory, INCLUDING Crimea. 

To whom does the "not add fuel to the fire" refer? 

Putin's relentless and indiscriminate bombing of Ukraine?

OR to the support being given to Ukraine by the US, the EU, Britain, and other western countries?

To whom does, "refrain from further exacerbating tensions."? Putin or Ukraine or Ukraine's allies?

The fourth Xi Jinping principle is really about the critical state of the economies of BOTH Germany and China, rather than about "peace in Ukraine".

Agence France-Presse (AFP) on Microsoft Start: 16 April 2024: CGTN News Video

 DW News : 16 Aprril 2024 : YouTube

 Which brings into sharp focus, as reported by  Michelle Shen and Melanie Zanona (left),

"House Speaker Mike Johnson (right) said Sunday he will move forward with a vote on additional Israel aid but did not go into specifics about his plans as he walks a knife’s edge with conservatives over the potential inclusion of Ukraine funding.
...
 “Congress should be clear: no action by Iran or Israel merits a vote on the Ukraine omnibus the Senate seeks,” GOP Rep. Warren Davidson wrote on social media.

The pressure campaign from Johnson’s right flank comes amid bipartisan calls — including from GOP Leader Mitch McConnell — to take up the Senate-passed foreign package that includes money for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, arguing that is the fastest way to get aid to Israel." (CNN : 14 Apil 2024) (my emphasis)

As Putin continues to accellerate his continued indiscriminate and ruthless bombing of the Ukrainian people and Ukraine's critical infrastructure, Zelensky is urging immediate help from western allies citing the recent immediate and successful  military assistance given to Israel to defend itself against the missiles and Shaheed drones that Iran unleashed against Israel.  

 As reported by AFP on News 24,

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky urged allies on Monday to show the same "unity" toward Ukraine as Israel, which said it repelled an Iranian attack over the weekend with Western support.

Ukraine has in recent months grown increasingly frustrated at delays in Western aid, including air defences it says are urgently needed to repel deadly Russian attacks.

In a post on Telegram, Zelensky thanked allies who had responded to Ukraine's call for more air defences but said: "The intensity of Russian attacks requires greater unity." (AFP on News 24 : 16 April 2024) (my emphasis) 

(cf also: "Czech politicians say Ukraine should get same support as Israel after Iran strike" : Aneta Zachová : Euroactiv : 16 April 2024)

Metro : 16 April 2024

What lends even more urgency to Zelensky's call for immediate military aid is the fact that, as reported by Euronews,

"The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency said attacks against Europe’s largest nuclear power plant have put the world “dangerously close to a nuclear accident”.

Without attributing blame, IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said his agency has been able to confirm three attacks against the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant since 7 April." (Euronews :  16 April 2024) (my emphasis)

Chancellor Scholtz, having emboldened Xi Jinping regarding his sights on Taiwan, and having yet again drawn back from giving Ukraine the necessary critical missiles to defend itself against Putin's frantic and dangerous assault on Ukraine, is singing from the same 'pro Putin' hymn sheet as the many Republican members of Congress who are  currently witholding critical US support for Ukraine.

And Putin is now dangerously tottering on the precipice of falling into a "Black Swan Event" whose effects very few will be able to escape from.

UPDATE 1: 17 April 2024

Finally it is becoming glaringly and abundantly clear, as Barbara Moens, Jacopo Barigazzi and Nicholas Vinocur (left) report,

"Two conflicts will compete for the attention of EU leaders meeting for a summit this week. There is one — Ukraine — where they can make a difference, and another — Iran-Israel — where they can’t.

It seems paradoxical, then, that the Middle East — a theater of war where the U.S. is infinitely more influential than Europe — will probably consume more attention than Ukraine — an EU candidate country that is desperately pleading for more European assistance as the tide turns against it, and Russian forces pummel Kharkiv, its second city." (Politico : 17 April 2024) (my emphasis)

This should come as no surprise. 

As I wrote in the first entry of my blog on Tuesday 10 June 2014,

• "Angela Merkel, the scientist Chancellor of Germany, is coldly and dispassionately upholding the ghost of the Treaty of Rapallo, wringing her hands in anguish while Putin tramples over the rights of the Ukrainian people. Is it any wonder that Gerhard Schroeder, the Chancellor of Germany when that export deal was struck in 1992, fondly embraced Putin at his recent 70th birthday party bash?

• But what about the other members of the EU? Cyprus is like a cat on a hot tin roof, not knowing what it will do if all that stolen Russian money wings its way out of her banks.

• Can the young Matteo Renzi face up to the howling of Italian businessmen not to jeopardize their sucking on the teats of the corrupt Russian cow?" (blog entry 10 June 2014)

Is there anything new under the sun?

 

(to be continued)

Putin is now drinking at the last chance saloon

The critical situation facing Ukraine, brought about by its diminishing supplies of ammunition and air defences, lies firmly at the feet of certain EU members, but particularly Chancellor Scholtz and the German SPD party, together with the fascist German AFD party, refusing to give Ukraine the Taurus missile that would be a game changer against Putin's relentless onslaught against the people of Ukraine.

As Andrew Naughtie & Tamsin Paternoster (left) reported more than a month ago,

"Scholz's government has lately been resisting pressure to share one of its most powerful military assets with the Ukrainians just when they need it most.
...
According to Benjamin Tallis, Senior Fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations,"Following the Taurus leak, it seems that what Scholz is really afraid of is the weapon's effectiveness. This betrays his position of not wanting Ukraine to win – and it's an approach that lets down all Europeans by making us less safe." (Euronews : 6 March 2024) (my emphasis) 

What further betrays Scholz's position of not wanting Ukraine to win is the recent relocation of 5,000 German troops to Lithuania "amid mounting concerns about a potential attack from Moscow, whose Kaliningrad enclave borders Lithuania, along with its ally Belarus. (Euronews : 29 February 2024) (my emphasis)" (cf also: blog entry 6 March 2024)

Meanwhile, in the United States, the Republican Party, following the dogmatic decree of Donald Trump, continues to withold critical aid to Ukraine that will also serve as a game changer in Ukraine's defence against Putin's current frantic attemp to bomb Ukraine into total submission.

So much so that Putin's glove puppet, Dmitry Medvedev, also warns against the US supplying Ukraine with the necessary ammunition and military equipment that could halt Putin's near demented bombing campaign against the people of Ukraine.

As the Hindustan Times reports,

"Vladimir Putin's ally and ex-Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has lambasted Joe Biden. Medvedev warned the U.S. President of an apocalypse after his Ukraine remark. The claim that the conflict with Moscow could be ended with more American weapons is a call for slaughter, the former Russian president said. On April 10, Biden reiterated his call to the U.S. Congress to release $60 billion in aid for Ukraine. Biden said the Ukraine war could end if the house leader allows a vote." (Hindustan Times : 11 April 2024) (my emphasis)

Hindustan Times : 12 April 2024 : YouTube 

 As General Sir Richard Barrons (left) also points out,  

"Ukraine is not yet at that point [of conceding defeat].

But its forces are running critically low on ammunition, troops and air defences. Its much-heralded counter-offensive last year failed to dislodge the Russians from ground they had seized and now Moscow is gearing up for a summer offensive.

So what will that look like and what are its likely strategic objectives?

"The shape of the Russian offensive that's going to come is pretty clear," says Gen Barrons.

"We are seeing Russia batter away at the front line, employing a five-to-one advantage in artillery, ammunition, and a surplus of people reinforced by the use of newish weapons." (Frank Gardner : BBC News : 13 April 2024) (my emphasis)

Emboldened by his current onslaught against the people of Ukraine, Putin now views any international attempt to convene a peace conference to try and end his war with Ukraine with utter contempt.

As reported by the Associated Press (AP),

"Russia’s President Vladimir Putin on Thursday mocked a scheduled round of Ukraine peace talks in Switzerland, warning that Moscow will not accept any enforced plans that ignore its interests." (Associated Press (AP): 12 April 2024) (my emphasis)

The AP goes on to report,

"Russia has dismissed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s peace formula requiring Moscow to pull back its troops, pay compensation to Ukraine and face an international tribunal for its action.

Speaking during Thursday’s meeting with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in Moscow, Putin said that Russia is open for negotiations, but will never accept “any schemes that have nothing to do with reality.”" (ibid Associated Press (AP))

(Associated Press (AP): 12 April 2024)

Sam Ormiston also reports that,

"Vladimir Putin has claimed that Russia is open to peace talks, but only if they are held on Moscow's terms.
...
"He also denied that Russia was responsible for attacks on energy infrastructure in Ukraine, despite evidence to the contrary." " (13 April 2024) (my emphasis)

Indeed, Putin's current 'emboldment' is leading him to come perilously close to precipitating a confrontation with NATO.

As reported by Katie Boyden (left),

"NATO jets have been scrambled this morning over Russia’s latest missile and drone attack on Ukraine.

The NATO planes were scrambled to defend Poland’s airspace as Russia used long-range rocket strikes to attack Ukraine in a five-hour bombardment.

Late last month the Polish prime minister warned ‘we are in a pre-war era’ as Vladimir Putin’s missiles struck close to its border." (Metro : 11 April 2024) (my emphasis)

Katie Boyden goes on to further report that,

"[Putin's] latest attack [against Ukraine] comes amid concerns that Putin could be planning for a war with NATO ‘sooner than expected’ – before mocking the military alliance." (ibid Katie Boyden)

 It is this potential showdown between Putin and NATO that is, as Ian Casey and Jonathan Beale report,

"A UK high-power laser weapon could be sent to Ukraine to take down Russian drones, the defence secretary says.
...
The greatest advantage of lasers is cost and, in theory, an "unlimited magazine" of ammunition - as long as there is a reliable source of power. But the big drawback is that they can only fire at targets in the line of sight, unlike most missiles.
...
The MoD says firing the DragonFire system for 10 seconds is the cost equivalent of using a regular heater for an hour, with the operating expense typically less than £10 a shot." (BBC News : 12 April 2024) (my emphasis)

 Putin may be 'emboldened' to threaten NATO, but he is not 'emoldened' enough to actually cross NATO'S Article 5 red line viz. 

"The principle aims to deter potential adversaries from attacking NATO members. Article 5 guarantees that the resources of the whole alliance can be used to protect any single member nation. This is crucial for many of the smaller countries who would be defenseless without their allies." (CNN :  Paul LeBlanc : 7 March 2024) 

Putin's current indiscriminate and heavy bombardment against the people of Ukraine yet again indicates that he is 'Drinking at the last chance saloon'. 

 

Times Radio : 22 March 2024 : YouTube 

 

(to be continued)