The suffering of Ukrainians and Russians being caused by Putin

Today is a sad day indeed. If, like myself, you have experienced the openess and kindness and hospitality of the Russian and Ukrainian people, then surely your heart must bleed at the suffering that they must now endure, thanks to Vladimir Putin's 'psychotic' dream of restoring the old Czarist Empire of Russia. The airwaves of the world are resounding with the falling price of the Russian currency, the rouble. Food is becoming more and more expensive. Russians are already beginning to hoard food.

A website has emerged that rather poignantly tells us, second by second, what is happening to the price of the rouble, as well as telling us what is happening to the price of a barrel of oil, the very foundation on which the Russian economy rests. Already interest rates have been hiked to more than 17%, making it more much expensive for ordinary Russians to even borrow money from their banks.

                  

The Russian economy is not simply faltering, it is rapidly slowing down. And with this slowing down will come unemployment and even more suffering for the Russian people. (BBC Business News: 16 December 2014)

Putin is not only making the Ukrainian people suffer, he is doing it to the Russian people as well. As reported by Pete Spence of the  Daily Telegraph,

"Russia’s rouble has slumped, hitting many Russian consumers by pushing up inflation at a time when any hopes for growth are distant." (14 Dec 2014)

"One Muscovite resident told Business Insider that ATMs in the city are being routinely emptied by people eager to withdraw as much cash as they can either to change into dollars or purchase goods with before the value falls even further. He said the mood there is unlike anything he had ever seen "including during the crash of 2008-9". (Tomas Hirst : Business Insider : Dec. 11, 2014)

Putin's criminal acts against Ukraine has precipitated the same types of problems in Ukraine. In the rebel-held territories of eastern Ukraine such problems are even more intense.

"...with the coming of winter it has become evident that the separatist leadership is incapable of providing any kind of normal life for the inhabitants in the occupied territories without external financial support. Bitterly cold Donetsk and Luhansk find themselves on the verge of a humanitarian catastrophe. Smaller towns have already crossed the line: if we are to name things what they are, there is famine in the towns. Old people in particular are suffering. With the absence of functioning social and medical agencies the old people are slowly dying in their freezing homes with no food or medicines. (Ivan Iakovyna of EuroMaidan Press (2014/12/12)

So what real options does Putin now have?

According to Ivan Iakovyna, 

"By the beginning of December, the overall status of the separatists deteriorated. The hope that after the Battle of Ilovaisk Ukraine would agree to recognize the separatists and would agree to provide an official plan to federalize eastern Ukraine has been dashed. The isolation of the occupied territories from any financial means has led to the crash of the local economy. Moscow has ended up with a bunch of armed people, a destabilized region, and a famished and freezing population.

 

The Russian leadership is left with four options:

• To escalate the conflict and to force the Ukrainian side to declare federalization and to take on the responsibility for Donbas and its people
• To drop the Novorossia project, let the people fend for themselves, close off the border to Russia and  admit and declare defeat
• To freeze the conflict by absorbing Donbas and its resources
• To try to achieve the original objectives through negotiation

The first option has been rejected by the hawks in the Kremlin [for the following reasons] (collapse of the economy, social upheaval and popular unrest).
The second option is unacceptable for ideological reasons. The Russian people who for over a year have been told that “those are our people” will be unable to comprehend or to accept such a decision. Today already men like Strelkov-Girkin are explicitly blaming the Kremlin for betraying “Novorossia” and are gaining popularity among the most conservative segment of Russian society. Besides, in Moscow everyone understands that abandoning Donbas will not lift the international sanctions that are in place. Crimea is next in line. For the Kremlin it is essential to keep stoking instability in eastern Ukraine for as long as possible. Capitulation is not an option." (my emphasis)

If  Ivan Iakovyna is right in his assessment that "Capitulation is not an option" for Putin, what will the 'fragrant' Mogherini, who must also be aware that capitulation is not an option for Putin; what will she be able to 'suggest' at her meeting today with Poroshenko that will alleviate the suffering of the Ukrainian and Russian people? Can she cast from her mind her past (?) communist mind-set when having her discussion with Poroshenko about how to get Putin to leave eastern Ukraine and return Ukrainian Crimea to Ukraine?  

         

(to be continued)

Mogherini ... Putin's 'favourite' EU representative ..

The 'fragrant' Federica Mogherini, former member of the Italian Communist party and currently a member of the Italian Democrats of the Left, now holds the critical position as the EU's Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. Her election to this top EU post was not without critics, especially from former east European countries who are now members of the EU. They argued that she is too soft on Putin. (right: The young Mogherini with Yasser Arafat)
 

There was further consternation when she choose as her  spokeswoman Catherine Ray (left) , the wife of  

Gazprom lobbyist, Tomas Barros-Tastets. 

This coming week will test severly the 'fragrant' Mogherini's political allegiance towards the EU's fractured political stance towards Putin's invasion of eastern Ukraine, and his annexation of Ukraine's Crimea and its absorbtion into  Russia.

Like Merkel's Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the 'fragrant' Mogherini is also chanting the 'mantra' of Putin's Minsk agreement. In her first bi-lateral meeting with Secretary of State John Kerry, this is the 'mantra' that she chanted during their meeting with the press. (U.S. Department of State: 03 December 2014)

Events have somewhat moved on since then. Mogherini now has huge challenges before her as the issue of Ukraine becomes top of her agenda for the coming week.

As reported by Reuters,

"With Moscow showing no sign of reversing its decisiosn [about its annexation of Ukrainian Crimea], Mogherini must tread a fine line between EU governments such as the Baltics, Poland, and Britain which backs tough sanctions on Russia and those such as Italy, Cyprus and Bulgaria that are sceptical about them." (Daily Mail :14 December 2014)     

Mogherini herself does not see sanctions as an end in themself  but, like Frank-Walter Steinmeier, wants to start a dialogue suggested by Putin and that would be between Russia, the EU, and members of  his own Eurasian Economic Union, to discuss Russian concerns about Ukraine's  Free Trade Agreement with the EU. (ibid Daily Mail)

It really beggars belief that both Mogherini and Steinmeir are even willing to consider this suggestion by Putin, whose very criminal acts in Ukraine have led not only to the resumption of the Cold War between Russia, the US, and the EU, but is also fast heading us all towards a Hot War.

  

What is even more galling is that they are both willing to EXCLUDE Ukraine from a discussion ABOUT Ukraine that is being suggested by Putin himself. Do they not realise that Putin would later simply ignore these discussions just as he has done with his Trojan Minsk Proposals?

Is it any wonder that,

"EU governments in eastern Europe particulalrly are suspicious of any attempt to "re-set" relations with  Moscow"? (ibid Daily Mail) (my emphasis)

To-morrow (Tues 16 Dec) the 'fragrant' Mogherini will be visiting Kiev "to have discusions with Poroshenko about eastern Ukraine to help resolve the crisis over Moscow's annexation of Ukraine's Crimea region and its support for militants in eastern Ukraine, which led the EU and United States to impose economic sanctions on Russia". (Ukraine Today : Dec. 15, 2014) (my emphasis)

She will also

" ..... raise economic, political and judicial reforms that the EU believes are urgently needed in Ukraine." (ibid Ukraine Today)

Given the fact that Steinmeister and herself are in lock-step together in 

"wanting to start a dialogue suggested by Putin and that would be between Russia, the EU, and members of  his own Eurasian Economic Union", (ibid Daily Mail),

what, exactly, will she be discussing with Poroshenko (left) when one can surmise that what he says will simply be ignored by herself? After all, if she is willing to EXCLUDE him from discussions about the country of which he is president, which Putin has criminally invaded, and who has annexed Ukrainian Crimea; what is she really going to discuss?

I shall hazard a guess and say that:

• she will try to convince him to agree to that suggestion of Putin that she and Steinmeister are in favour of,
• she will use the question of  "economic, political and judicial reforms that the EU believes are urgently needed in Ukraine." (ibid Ukraine Today) as a 'stick' to get him to at least 'partially' agree to Putin's new Trojan suggestion,
• she will also use EU monetary support for Ukraine as yet another 'stick' to swing him in the direction of Putin's Trojan suggestion, and finally,
• she may suggest that Putin's Trojan Minsk Protocols be amended, something which Kutchma is aware may be in the offing. (Interfax Ukraine : 03.12.2014)

What she WILL NOT discuss is;

• all those billions that Yanukovich stole from the coffers of Ukraine and that are now propping up Putin's banks
• all the money that Putin OWES Ukraine for water, gas, and electricity that Ukrainian Crimea is still getting from Ukraine, and
• all those billions that Yanukovich and his criminal cohorts have spirited out of Ukraine whilst he was president, and that even the United States is determined to help Ukraine find and recover billions of dollars of assets it says were stolen by its former president and his aides.

No-one in the EU wants to confront Putin about the billions of dollars that were stolen from Ukraine and that now props up his banks! And which Putin KNOWS ABOUT! Not even Merkel has raised this issue with Putin. 

Yet they all gloss over the fact that Putin is bankrolling right-wing EU fascist parties!

What does all of this tell us about the 'fragrant' ex-communist Mogherini? 

As was once said about Richard Nixon,

"Would you buy a second-hand car from this man"? 

One could equally say,

"Would you buy a second-hand Mercedes from Mogherini?"

(to be continued)

Is Putin heading the world towards a HOT WAR?

As winter begins to take hold, and the cold begins to descend upon the people of Ukraine during this time of hope for the coming new year,

"Deputy Foreign Secretary Sergei Ryabkov on Saturday blamed "anti-Russian moods" in Washington for the new bill authorizing lethal military aid to Kyiv and deeper sanctions against Russia."

"The bill, passed unanimously by the U.S. Senate, authorizes $350 million in military hardware and munitions to Ukraine, and new sanctions against high-profile Russian exporters.  The bill now heads to the House of Representatives." (VOA News: December 13, 2014)

But this bill still needs the signature of President Obama, a signature that he says depends on the EU coming 'on board' if he is to sanction more sanctions against Putin and his kleptocratic 'siloviki'. But will the EU come on board?

Already, in Merkel's Germany,

"At least 3,500 people took part in [a] protest, organized by the German Peace Movement in the capital Berlin on Saturday. Press TV reported.The demonstrators marched to the presidential Bellevue palace to condemn the West’s confrontation with Russia over the conflict in Ukraine." (Iran Daily : December 14, 2014)

whilst Merkel herself continues to

"...[call] for a diplomatic solution to the conflict in eastern Ukraine. She said that the first steps had been taken with the Minsk Agreement in September and they should be built on. (DW : 13.12.2014)

She continues to "reassure Russia about closer European trade ties with Ukraine." (ibid DW)

Meanwhile, in an interview with Euronews, the leader of the French fascist 'Front Nationale', Marine Le Pen, continues to heap praise upon Putin. (14/12/2014)

And in Italy,

"Forceful and plain-spoken, [Matteo] Salvini has emerged at the same time as the 39-year-old [Italian] prime minister, Matteo Renzi, highlighting the generational change shaking up Italian politics since the fall of Silvio Berlusconi in 2011.

He is a friend of Marine Le Pen, leader of France's far-right National Front, and well-disposed to a Russian president [ Putin] who has spurred anger, and economic sanctions, in Brussels over his policies towards pro-Russian rebellion in eastern Ukraine." (EurActiv : 11/12/2014) (my emphasis)

"Salvini has become Italy's second-most popular leader since taking over the party, founded in the early 1990s as a separatist, anti-immigrant movement in the prosperous north of Italy." (ibid EurActiv) (my emphasis)

What we have, therefore, is the triumvirate of Germany, France, and Italy, amongst other former Eastern European members of the EU such as Hungary, who can easily scupper any call for increased sanctions against Putin's Russia.

More importantly, both PUTIN and OBAMA know this!

It is against this backdrop that Russia's Deputy Foreign Minisister Ryabkov said on Saturday that,

"We will not be able to leave that [i.e. new US sanctions against Putin's Russia] without an answer," Russia's Interfax news agency quoted [him] as saying. He did not say what form of counter-measure Moscow might take." (Enca : Saturday 13 December 2014)

Mikhail Yemelyanov of the Fair Russia party told reporters on Friday (12 December 2014) that,

“The decision of the US Senate is extremely dangerous. If it is supported by the [US] House of  Representatives and signed by their president [Obama], Russia must reply with adequate measures,”
“It is quite possible that we should return to the decision by our Upper House and give the Russian president an opportunity to use military force on Ukrainian territory preemptively. We should not wait until Ukraine is armed and becomes really dangerous,” the lawmaker stated.(RT : December 12, 2014)

We are now beginning to enter the stage when the Cold War that Putin precipitated can become a Hot War. 

As Stephen Szabo says,

"Russia's annexation of Crimea and support for the continuing insurgency in Eastern Ukraine mean that peace in Europe can no longer be taken for granted. For several reasons, the West's current confrontation with Russia is arguably more serious and dangerous than the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962." (Real Clear World : December 11, 2014) 

 (to be continued)

Is Putin evil?

In July of this year I pointed out that Angela Merkel and Putin had secret talks at which Merkel conceded Ukraine Crimea to Putin in exchange for ending the war between Russia and Ukraine.

Merkel and Putin

It would now seem that two members of the Brookings Institution, Michael O'Hanlon and Jeremy Shapiro (Washington Post : December 7, 2014) have come to the same conclusion, amongst others, as did Angela Merkel viz. that

• "Russia can make its historically based claim on Crimea but would have to accept a binding referendum under outside monitoring that would determine the region’s future, with independence as one option." (ibid O'Hanlon and Shapiro) (my emphasis)

Apparently they argue that this is in keeping with some of the ideas of Henry Kissinger and Zbigniew Brzezinski regarding the current situation between Ukraine and Russia. 

Jeremy Shapiro

Besides succumbing to Putin's propaganda about Russia's historical claim to Ukrainian Crimea,  they also claim that Putin's invasion of Ukraine, his annexation of Crimea, and his support for the separatists in the rebel-held territories of eastern Ukraine does not involve making a moral judgement about his actions.  

Shapiro and O'Hanlon should be reminded of the words of Alexander Motyl. On July 25, 2014, Motyl stated that,

"Is Putin evil? His actions certainly are, if by evil we understand behavior that willfully, consciously and purposely destroys human life. Perhaps we can call his actions undeniably evil and Putin himself "evil enough." Evil enough for what? Evil enough for condemnation by people of good will."

He further stated that,

"Such countries as France and Germany, which have extensive economic relations with Russia, face a difficult moral choice. They must ask themselves whether Putin is evil or evil enough. If they decide his killing spree in eastern Ukraine is neither evil nor evil enough, they must explain -- to themselves and to the rest of the world -- just why they believe the destruction of Ukrainian, Russian, Malaysian, Dutch and other lives is not a form of evil behavior." (ibid Alexander Motyl) (my emphasis)

It really would seem that neither Shapiro or O'Hanlon would regard Putin's actions over Ukraine as evil. If so, would they regard Hitler as having being an 'evil' man?

If not so, then that famous comparison of Hilary Clinton, a former Secretary of State just like their idols Kissinger and Brzezinski, that 

" ...... Russian President Vladimir Putin's aggression in Ukraine [are akin] to actions taken by Nazi leader Adolf Hitler outside Germany in the run-up to World War II", is a false comparison since Putin's actions in Crimea are simply NOT evil.

But perhaps the most critical assessment of the recommendations of Shapiro and O'Hanlon regarding the war between Putin and Ukraine comes from Paul R. Gregory. He correctly states that,

Paul R. Gregory

 "They offer a “compromise” that concedes Crimea to Russia, deprives Ukraine of its sovereign choice of economic and security arrangements, refuses to arm Ukraine, and weakens NATO in return for Russian “promises” of good behavior. O’Hanlon and Shapiro admit that “many Western voices will view any such effort as rewarding Russia and Putin,” but their approach is “designed not as a reward but to protect Ukraine’s security—and our own.” I agree their proposal rewards Putin, but I contend it weakens both our security and Ukraine’s." (ibid Paul R. Gregory) ( Forbes : Dec. 11, 2014)  (my emphasis)

He concludes his article with a pertinent question to Shapiro and O'Hanlon viz.

"I would ask them: How could anyone be worse than Putin, who, among other things, turned Russia into a kleptocratic state (See Karen Dawisha’s Putin’s Kleptocracy), annexed territory by force, attacked sovereign neighbors, closed down opposition media, jailed ordinary protesters, and does not hesitate to lie to foreign leaders?" (ibid Paul R. Gregory)

In other words, how can you NOT make a MORAL judgement about Putin's invasion of Ukraine, and his subsequent actions in Crimean and eastern Ukraine?

(to be continued)

Are tiny cracks appearing amongst Putin's kleptocratic clique?

"On Tuesday, the Ukrainian army accused separatists in the east of Ukraine, where there are ongoing disputes over territory, of violating an agreed day-long ceasefire known as the "Day of Silence." A longer peace is still "a long way off," according to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. 
A sigh of relief was breathed when Russia resumed shipments of natural gas to its neighbour – albeit at a much higher cost -- in time to keep households and industry going. Yet it is still unclear how far Russia, where the economy is also in trouble after sanctions imposed by the West, is prepared to go to defend its interests across the Ukrainian border.
- By CNBC's Catherine Boyle."(3 Hours Ago: Dec 10, 2014) (my emphasis)

In my last blog-entry I mentioned that Putin was rather nervous when greeting Hollande last Sunday. And today Putin has decided to resume gas shipments to Ukraine, but at much higher cost. At the same time, that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister Lavrov states that," A longer peace is still "a long way off".

The question that we have to ask ourselves is, " Why is Lavrov now the 'hawk' to Putin's 'dove'?" What, exactly, made Putin nervous when greeting Hollande last Sunday? Why, given the parlous state of the Ukrainian economy, has Putin decided to keep the Ukrainians warm during this winter, albeit at a much higher cost?

There are three critical developments that may account for for this sudden mood-swing of both Putin and Lavrov.

Latvian troops preparing for live-fire exercises

• The 'ceasefire' that was supposed to commence on Tuesday 9 Dec, 2014, seems to be faltering. Yesterday 3 people were killed ,"while European nations raised new fears about Russia's "unprecedented" military build-up". ....More than 30 Russian aircraft were intercepted in international airspace "over the Baltic Sea and off the coast of Norway" on Monday, a NATO spokesman said, whilst Sweden [may be] recalling around 7,500 recent veterans to form a reserve voluntary force. "For a few days now, there has been unprecedented Russian activity, from its Baltic fleet to flights over the Baltic sea," Defence Minister Tomasz Siemoniak told Polish broadcaster TVN24. (Oleksander Stachevski and Dmitri Gorschkov : AFP : Dec 12, 2014) (my emphasis)
• Putin's propaganda machine in Russia may be faltering. " ..... [J]ust as with Soviet propaganda, which blamed outside enemies for the country’s failures, resentment is vulnerable to reality. When television pictures contradict people’s personal experience, they stop working. “You can’t really ‘sell’ anything to people, that they don’t wish to buy,” says one television boss. As the ratings show, Russians are tiring of news about Western aggression. (The Economist : Dec 13th 2014 | MOSCOW |)(my emphasis) Thus, "Over the past nine months opinion polls find that support for the presence of Russian troops in Ukraine have fallen from 74% to 23%." (ibid The Economist)
• What most Russians really need is news about the unfolding economic crisis that Mr Putin’s message from above largely ignored. The continuing fall in the rouble, eroding living standards and a sharp rise in food prices are worrying people far more than the fate of separatists in Ukraine. Now that sanctions are starting to bite, enthusiasm for war and isolation is diminishing fast. “Cognitive consonance between propaganda and people’s self-feel does not withstand external shocks,” says Mikhail Dmitriev, head of New Economic Growth, a think-tank. (ibid The Economist) (my emphasis)

Sunday, December 7th 2014  Buckwheat Panic grips Russians

Prices have gone up 30 to 40 percent for basic foods such as eggs, pork, chicken, frozen fish and sausage since the counter sanctions were imposed.  Putin simply cannot hide these facts from the Russian people. (Marina Lapenkova, AFP : Dec. 7, 2014)

Meanwhile Medvedev now enters the scene by on the one hand wishing to take Ukraine to court over alleged non-payment of gas bills, whilst on the other hand stressing that there is always room for compromise. ( RT : December 10, 2014)

Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev

This seems to 'mirror' the Lavrov - Putin  'carrot and stick' approach. But what, really, does this seeming confusion tell us? Are tiny cracks beginning to appear within Putin's "kleptocratic clan"? Is all that 'military muscle-flexing' of Putin really all for show? 

This whole brouhaha about non-payment of gas bills on the part of Ukraine has to be seen against the backdrop of :

• the billions of dollars that Yanukovich stole from the coffers of Ukraine, and that is now tucked away in Russian banks. This is estimated at $100 billion. U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder said  ..... that Washington was determined to help Kiev find billions of dollars it says were stolen by Yanukovych and his aides. “We are determined to hold accountable those who were responsible for the theft of these Ukrainian assets,” he said. Makhnitsky said that Yanukovych and his people had spirited $32 billion in cash across the border in trucks as his power crumbled early this year (The Japan Times ) Putin's kleptocratic clique knows about this stolen money (and gold!) . So what is Putin doing about this? Absolutely nothing! Stolen Ukrainian money is now propping up Russian banks! AND MEDVEDEV WANTS TO TALK ABOUT $3.1 billion ostensibly owed to Russia for non-payment of gas bills by Ukraine???
• The money that Russia OWES Ukraine for the supply of gas, electricity, and water to Ukrainian Crimea and that is now militarily occupied by Russia

What, therefore, is this 'taking to court of Ukraine' really all about? The money is there, in Russia, propping up Russian banks. Is it any wonder that Putin, in his speech last Thursday, stated that:

"I propose a full amnesty for capital returning to Russia. I stress, full amnesty. Of course, it is essential to explain to the people who will make these decisions what full amnesty means. It means that if a person legalises his holdings and property in Russia, he will receive firm legal guarantees that he will not be summoned to various agencies, including law enforcement agencies, that they will not “put the squeeze” on him, that he will not be asked about the sources of his capital and methods of its acquisition, that he will not be prosecuted or face administrative liability, and that he will not be questioned by the tax service or law enforcement agencies. Let’s do this now, but only once. Everyone who wants to come to Russia should be given this opportunity." (blog : Dec 5, 2014)

Of course, all of this also applies to Yanukovich!

The holiday season is now upon Ukraine and Russia. For Russians, in particular, the hard facts of their rapidly escalating prices in food, and the emptiness of the shelves of those imported foods that they have become used to, cannot be glossed over by Putin. Putin's "fine words will simply butter no parsnips" during this holiday season.

(to be continued)