Putin continuing to put the 'squeeze' on Ukraine

AFP (Agence France Press) reports this morning that,

"The US House of Representatives approved the resolution in a broadly bipartisan 348-48 vote, heaping further pressure on the Obama administration to end its delays in providing weapons and other heavy military equipment to Kiev forces." (AFP : 24 March, 2015) (my emphasis)

 However, as Amy Nordrum reports,

"Last year, Congress unanimously passed a bill (Summary: S.2828 — 113th Congress (2013-2014))
that authorized the president to send [lethal] weapons to Ukraine -- a power he has so far declined to use." (International Business Times : Tuesday, March 24, 2015) (my emphasis)

All of this may seem rather strange to an outside observer. A Bill is passed in Congress but, for it to become law, President Obama has to sign it.

Without his signature it simply gathers dust. Even if the whole of Congress, or the Senate, pass resolution after resolution urging him to act in a specific way, all that he simply has to do is to ignore them. His signature is encapsulated in the saying, "The buck stops here."

President Obama signed the Ukraine Freedom Support Act of 2014 into law. However, Section 6: (b) of this Act is a "get-out" clause for providing 'lethal' defensive weapons since it specifies that,

" ...Not later than 60 days after the date of the enactment of this Act, the President shall submit a report detailing the anticipated defense articles, defense services, and training to be provided pursuant to this section and a timeline for the provision of such defense articles, defense services, and training, to-- " (ibid Summary: S.2828) (my emphasis)

It is up to Obama to give details of what he will provide, rather than this bill specifying what he MUST provide. It is entirely up to him whether he provides 'lethal' defensive weaponry or not, and all that yesterday's vote in the House of Representatives (right) achieved was simply to increase the 'pressure' on him into 'including' lethal defensive weaponry into what he will provide to Ukraine.

But since he has given Angela Merkel his word that he WILL NOT provide Ukraine with 'lethal' defensive weaponry at this point in time, notwithstanding the calls coming from Ukraine, NATO generals, Congress, or even the Senate; no amount of 'shouting from the rafters' is going to make him suddenly change his mind on this issue.

Putin is well aware of the fact that Obama must sing from the same 'hymn-sheet' as Merkel regarding the non-provision of 'lethal' defensive weapons to Ukraine if he is not to be seen as deepening the rift between the EU and the US over how to help Ukraine militarily counter his proxies and Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine.

This 'bind' that Obama has placed himself in is emboldening both Putin and his 'siloviki' to not only stealthily trample over the 'ceasefire' agreements of Minsk2 but, more importantly, set the stage for a possible Spring assault on Mariupol.

          Fradkov             Shoigu                    Patruschev                   Kolokoltsev                Bortnikov

Added to which, as reported by Tomas Hirst,

"Ukraine could be set for yet another showdown with Russia over a $3 billion debt bill.
 .......
Back in January, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov (right) announced that Ukraine had breached the terms on the loan, which required the government in Kiev to cap national debt at 60% of GDP. This theoretically allows Moscow to recall the loan whenever it wants, meaning that it is currently acting as a sword of Damocles over president Petro Poroshenko's administration." .......
... while Kiev was able to get rid of Yanukovych, getting rid of his financial legacy is looking to be a bigger task.(Business Insider UK : Mar. 23, 2015) (my emphasis)

Given the growing precariousness of Putin's economy, will Moscow recall this loan now?

And to add to the squeeze that Putin  is putting on Ukraine, Darya Korsunskaya informs us that,

"Russia accused Kiev on Monday of violating parts of the Minsk peace deal for east Ukraine and urged Germany and France, which helped negotiate it, to do more to ensure Kiev sticks to the agreements that were reached." (Reuters : Mon Mar 23, 2015) (my emphasis)

This, notwithstanding that, as Lesley Wroughton reports,

"Russian tanks and heavy military equipment have crossed the Ukrainian border in the last few days in breach of a European-brokered ceasefire agreed on Feb. 12, a senior U.S. State Department official said on Tuesday." (Reuters : Tue Mar 10, 2015) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile the citizens of Mariupol continue to prepare themselves for what they see as an imminent invasion by Putin's proxies and his Russian soldiers. 

"When the first blast of the air raid siren sounds in a nearby street, the children and teachers of Mariupol's school Number 20 (right) know exactly what to do.
Within minutes of the first alert, 213 children and their 22 teachers sit huddled in a vast basement below the school and the roll call begins.
Class captains as young as six line up to report to the headmistress in a drill that has been practised dozens of times since a rocket attack on Mariupol's eastern district killed 30 people in January." (Nicholas Lazaredes : ABC News : March 24, 2015)

(to be continued)

Is the 'fragrant' Mogherini Putin's "Trojan Horse" in the EU?

Finally the 'fragrant' Mogherini (left, with the late Yasser Arafat) is publicly displaying exactly where her sympathies lay namely, with Putin.

As Josh Rogin reports,

"The European Union's high representative for foreign affairs, Federica Mogherini, refused to say whether she thought Russia was adhering to the Minsk pact. She said European leaders won’t make a judgment until July, when the next decision on EU sanctions is due, and that she was working to ease sanctions against Russia." (Bloomberg View : Mar 22, 2015) (my emphasis)

It is more than public knowledge that Putin is NOT adhering to the Minsk2 pact.

Protocol 10 of the Minsk2 agreement states that,

"10. Withdrawal of all foreign armed formations, military equipment, as well as mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine under monitoring of the OSCE. Disarmament of all illegal groups." (Financial Times : February 12, 2015)

Yet only yesterday,

"U.S. Air Force General Philip Breedlove (left) told an audience here at the German Marshall Fund Brussels Forum that Moscow continues to ramp up military and economic support to separatists in Eastern Ukraine. That conclusion was based on evidence gathered by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's joint intelligence unit in the U.K." (ibid Josh Rogin) (my emphasis)

Is the 'fragrant' Mogherini questioning the intelligence gathered by NATO that Putin is continuing to pour sophisticated arms into eastern Ukraine? Does she truly believe that Putin is a truthful person even though he has recently exposed himself as being a 'liar' over the invasion of Ukrainian Crimea? 

 

Secondly, as Andrew Rettman reports,

"EU leaders (right) have decided to maintain economic sanctions on Russia until the end of the year.
They said in a joint statement on Thursday (19 March) in Brussels the “restrictive measures against the Russian Federation … should be clearly linked to the complete implementation of the Minsk agreements, bearing in mind that this is only foreseen by 31 December 2015”. (EU Observer : 20. March, 2015) (my emphasis)

Is the 'fragrant' Mogherini working to ease sanctions against Russia, even in light of this latest decision taken by EU leaders?

Furthermore, prior to this EU decision, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, Ukrainian Prime Minister argued that he,

"strongly reject[s] any debates on easing of sanctions. What we can talk about, we can talk about the rollover and the way how to scale up sanctions in case if Russia is not eager to implement the Minsk deal. Because, look, what is the success of President Putin? What is the formula of Russian stability? This is instability in the EU and if Putin splits the unity among EU member states and among the leaders of the EU member countries, this will be the biggest success story of President Putin and this will be the disaster for the free world." (Ukraine Today : Mar. 19, 2015) (my emphasis)

 And meanwhile,

"Russia threatened to aim nuclear missiles at Danish warships if Denmark joins NATO's missile defense system, in comments Copenhagen (left: Denmark's Foreign Minister Martin Lidegaard) called unacceptable and NATO said would not contribute to peace." (Teis Jensen : Reuters :  Sun Mar 22, 2015) (my emphasis)

How will the 'fragrant' Mogherini cope with this threat of Putin, given that her brief includes not only being the chief co-ordinator and representative of the Common Foreign Policy of the EU, but also includes her co-ordinating the Security Policy within the (EU).

The serious question, "Who controls the 'fragrant' Mogherini?" has now to be asked. Putin or her employers, the EU. Who, exactly, does she really represent?

(to be continued)

Putin fails to split the EU

Yesterday that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov (left), apparently,

" ... appealed to Germany and France on Saturday to ensure Kiev does not try to incite violence in east Ukraine to encourage the United States to send Ukrainian forces lethal weapons. ........

......
In an interview with Russian television, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said he was concerned Kiev might stage "provocations" to try to persuade the United States that it should aid Kiev by sending it lethal weapons." (Katya Golubkova : Reuters : Sat Mar 21, 2015)
  
Since the beginning of Putin's invasion of eastern Ukraine, sophisticated lethal weapons from Russia have flowed like an unstoppable torrent into the hands of Putin's proxies, and have been operated by the flood of Russian soldiers that accompanied those weapons across the Ukrainian-Russian border. 

This TV interview of Lavrov, beamed into all the households in Russia, had  two central purposes viz.

The first is to  " .... to set the stage for 'legitimising in the minds of the Russian public in particular' the impending Russian invasion of Mariupol that is stealthily been set up by Putin's proxies and his Russian soldiers".

Already, as admitted by the OSCE observers trying to monitor the removal of heavy weaponry from the 'conflict' boundary between Ukraine and Russia, 

"International observers trying to monitor the ceasefire in the Ukraine are being led on an impossible game of 'hide and seek' that could shatter the peace deal.......Both pro-Russian rebels and government troops have been accused of concealing weapons from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) which could threaten the treaty." (Sam Mathew : MailOnline : 21 March 2015) 
 

The second, and possibly more important purpose, of Lavrov's TV interview for the Russian people is to somehow deflect their gaze from increasing unemployment, increasing inflation, and steadily emptying shelves in their supermarkets of the goods to which they have become accustomed.  

"Russia reels under depleting reserves, rising unemployment, and plummeting retail sales

Data released by the Central Bank of Russia and the Federal State Statistics Service on March 19 indicate that the country’s foreign exchange and gold reserves have depleted further. Retail sales have plummeted as consumer confidence is shaken by the sliding ruble and inflation runs rampant. 

........

The unemployment rate also increased to 5.8% in February from January’s 5.5%, adding to Russian households’ misery." (Stephanie Johnson : CNBC (Yahoo Finance) : Sun, Mar 22, 2015) (my emphasis)

Things have reached such a stage in Russia that even Putin is now urging,

".... Russian business leaders to bring money held abroad back to Russia sooner rather than later, warning that international sanctions could see foreign assets frozen.
"I would like to repeat that the situation is such that alarming information is coming from some countries and we are getting the impression that attempts may be made to prevent the return of capital to Russia," Putin told the business community at the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs congress in Moscow on Thursday, ... " (Holly Ellyatt : CNBC : Friday, 20 Mar 2015) (my emphasis)

Underlying this rather desperate call of Putin for money, 'stolen from the Russian people in the first place', to be brought back to Russia, is yet again a constant reinforcing of the extreme nationalist sentiments emanating from Putin's Russian TV propaganda machine that the Russian people are constantly being subjected to. 

The question is, "For how long can Putin's propaganda machine pull the wool over the eyes of the Russian people as the economic situation in Russia continues to deteriorate and more severly affects the living standards of the Russian people"?

Adding to Putin's woes is the fact that the EU leaders on Friday have decided that their sanctions against Russia will continue until the 'ceasefire' conditions outlined in Minsk2 have been fulfilled. This INCLUDES Ukraine regaining control over its border with Russia by the end of this year.

"The sanctions, imposed because of Russia's alleged military intervention in Ukraine, are now linked to "complete implementation" of a ceasefire deal." (BBC News : 20 March 2015) (my emphasis)

So, intstead of Putin being relieved of these sanctions in July, they will continue until the end of this year.

And looming on the horizon is the prospect of even more sanctions being imposed by the US administration against Putin and his kleptocratic cronies and 'siloviki'.

If this were not enough, as his proxies and Russian soldiers continue to try and conceal their heavy weaponry manouvres from the eyes of the OSCE, Obama will be finding himself more and more unable not to send lethal weapons of defence to Ukraine.

 

(to be continued)

 

Putin's aims for Ukraine spelt out

Yesterday Kenneth Rapoza reported that,

"Putin, "while addressing a commemoration ceremony for the annexation of Crimea", was,"... quick to blame Ukraine nationalists for the country’s problems today. Ukraine economic history has largely been plagued by corrupt regimes, and natural gas fights with Russia, [he said]." (Forbes : 18/3/2015) (my emphasis)

Yet, as Theodore P. Gerber has pointed out,

"Since the onset of the Putin era, Russian nationalism has seemed to play a prominent role in Russian politics. Putin himself has invoked a range of nationalist images, themes, and tropes over the years in his efforts to define his goals, justify his policies, and maintain public support. ..... Of course, the Russian government rationalized its recent incursion into Crimea as an effort to protect ethnic Russians residing there, an overtly nationalist argument. (The Washington Quaterly : November 01, 2014) (my emphasis)

The very act of him holding this obscene 'commemoration ceremony' about the invasion of, and annexing of, Ukrainian Crimea, on the very steps of the Kremlin, rather says it all. But let Putin speak for himself.

What he said is rather disconcerting viz. that,

"In Russia we have always thought that Russians and Ukrainians were of one nation ...."

Furthermore that,

"From our side we will do everything possible for Ukraine to pass this difficult period of development as soon as possible and we'll restore "normal" relations between our countries .."

Putin is telling the world that his war with Ukraine is NOT over. He is telling the world that his goal is to fully integrate Ukraine into Russia; to re-create his one nation.

And to this end, his proxies and Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine are hell bent on ensuring that the Minsk2 'ceasefire' fails. Every 'diplomatic' trick is being used by both themselves and that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, to scupper Minsk2.

As reported by the Associated Press,


"Separatist leaders in eastern Ukraine threatened Wednesday to abandon a cease-fire following changes to a law granting their regions self-rule.
Alexander Zakharchenko (left) and Igor Plotnitsky said in a statement that legislation giving areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions special status has been weakened by the amendments." (Associated Press : Fox News : March 18, 2015)

Similarly,

"Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (right) said the adoption of the legislation by Ukraine's parliament "in essence rewrites the agreements or, more simply put, grossly violates them" despite Kiev arguing it is in line with the February peace pact.

He objected to Kiev's requirement that before autonomy is granted, the separatists must hold local elections under Ukrainian law, with international monitoring." (Agence France Presse : March 18, 2015) (my emphasis)

Why would Lavrov object to the holding of elections on Ukrainian soil, under Ukrainian electoral rules, and under the full gaze of international monitoring? 

Because the rebel-held territories in eastern Ukraine is already seen by Putin as a new Abkhazia and Ossetia that can then be annexed into Russia.

One can only hope that this imminent and complete breakdown of the Minsk2 ceasefire focusses the minds of EU leaders at their summit today where the situation in Ukraine is to be discussed.    

Donald Tusk, current European Council President will be pressing,

" ... EU leaders to pledge [today] to keep sanctions on Russia until a Ukraine ceasefire deal is fully in place, effectively extending sanctions until at least the end of the year.
Europe must maintain pressure on Russia with sanctions until Ukraine has full control of its borders, Tusk (right)  said in an interview with several newspapers published on Monday." (Reuters : Mon Mar 16, 2015) (my emphasis)

Will the pro-Putin lobby in the EU acknowledge today that unless greater pressure is put upon Putin he will relentlessly pursue his goal of "doing everything possible to absorb Ukraine into Russia"?

Or will they simply close their mouth, eyes, and ears, to the reality of what Putin is doing in eastern Ukraine and in Ukrainian Crimea.

(to be continued)

Putin's sabre-rattling ...

The recent speculation about the 'missing' Putin may finally have been solved. Like the mysterious 10-day disappearance of Agatha Christie in 1926, there is still no explanation for President Putin's 10-day absence. Or so it would seem.

Putin suddenly re-appeared earlier on Monday, laughing off speculation about his health and,  as Commander In Chief of the Russian armed forces, "ordered the Russian navy's Northern Fleet on to a state of full combat readiness in the Arctic".(BBC News : 16 March 2015) (my emphasis)

As reported by Timothy Heritage and Darya Korsunskaya,

" .... the Northern Fleet was put on full alert on Monday and will range from the Arctic to the Black Sea, .... [appears] to be a show of force and defiance on the anniversary of the annexation of Crimea.

....[A] Defense Ministry official said nuclear-capable long-range bombers were being sent to the Black Sea peninsula as part of war games." (Reuters :  Tue Mar 17, 2015) (my emphasis)

And whilst Putin is sabre rattling from the Arctic to Crimea, the 'fragrant' Mogherini (left), stamping her feet, said,

"the 28-nation [EU] bloc would .... stick to its policy of not recognizing the annexation [of Ukrainian Crimea] and [continue] pursuing sanctions." (ibid Timothy Heritage and Darya Korsunskaya) (my emphasis)

Today the BBC reports that,

"Ukraine's MPs (right) have approved changes to the "special status" law for parts of rebel-held areas in eastern Ukraine [Tuesday 17 March].

The law will now come into force only after local elections monitored by international observers are held in the areas according to Ukrainian law.
The amendments also envisage the pullout of "all illegal armed groups" from the Donetsk and Luhansk regions." (BBC News : 18 March 2015)

These amendments to Minsk2 are, in fact, set out in Minsk1 viz.
 
"( 9) To ensure early local elections in accordance with the Ukrainian law "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts".

(10) To withdraw illegal armed groups and military equipment as well as fighters and mercenaries from Ukraine." (Wikipedia)

Why, therefore, is Putin's proxy in Donetsk threatening that,

".... the Minsk process is in fact interrupted" because Mr Poroshenko "does not respect the Donbas [Donetsk and Luhansk] people, he does not want peace"

whilst

" .... a Russian Foreign Ministry statement (in Russian) said the proposals put before Ukrainian MPs included "additional terms never previously discussed". (ibid BBC) (my emphasis)

"Additional terms never discussed"??? Really?

It beggars belief that the twelve-point protocol of Minsk1 is now totally ignored by the likes of that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov (above) when, in fact, Minsk2 was simply a "follow-up" memorandum that focussed on a 'ceasefire' viz.

• To pull heavy weaponry 15 kilometres (9.3 mi) back on each side of the line of contact, creating a 30-kilometre (19 mi) buffer zone
• To ban offensive operations
• To ban flights by combat aircraft over the security zone
• To withdraw all foreign mercenaries from the conflict zone
• To set up an OSCE mission to monitor implementation of Minsk Protocol (ibid Wikipedia)

Together with Putin's sabre rattling; what this 'hissy fit' of Putin's proxy in eastern Ukraine, and his Soviet side-kick Lavrov, indicates is that far from wanting a 'ceasefire', Putin and his 'siloviki' are, in fact, setting up the stage for the Russian invasion of Mariupol.

Basking in the 'glory' of having invaded and annexed Ukrainian Crimea, Putin simply cannot afford to give even the slightest hint of acquiescing to the Minsk2 'ceasefire' protocols.

Poroshenko (left) is well aware of this 'maskirovka' tactic of Putin. 

"Every day, there is shooting from the Russian side, often more than 60 times a day. In total, the ceasefire has been broken 1,100 times," he said. "The truth is that the agreement is not working." (Reuters: Sun Mar 15, 2015)

 It is possibly with this in mind that,

"[US] Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter (right) told lawmakers that he is “very much inclined” to arm Ukrainian fighters. “I think we need to support the Ukrainians in defending themselves.” (John O'Donnell : Reuters : Sun Mar 15, 2015) (my emphasis)

However, as in the case of pro-Putin EU leaders dithering over extending and/or increasing sanctions against Putin, so too is Obama about sending arms to Ukraine. This dithering of Obama is best summed up in the words of  Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges (left), the top US Army commander in Europe viz.

"“There are valid arguments to be made” for arming Ukraine, Hodges said, citing Frederick the Great’s maxim that diplomacy without weapons is like an orchestra without instruments. “But saying it’s a valid argument is different from saying this should be policy.” (ibid John O'Donnell) (my emphasis)

Yet what, more than anything else, these differences between Western leaders and Putin exemplifies is the difference between 'democratic' political systems and the 'totalitarian Fascistic' political system that Putin sits atop. 

Illustrative of these critical differences is a report by Michael Birnbaum who inform us that,

"As Washington debates whether to send lethal weaponry to the Ukrainian army, one of the Kremlin’s biggest critics, Alexei Navalny (right), says it would be a mistake.

His opposition to the U.S. proposal, expressed in a wide-ranging interview in his spartan Moscow office, highlights a dilemma for the small fraction of Russians who still sympathize with the United States after a wave of anti-Americanism. They face new dangers after the Feb. 27 assassination of Boris Nemtsov, who along with Navalny was one of the most charismatic leaders of the movement. " (Washington Post : March 17, 2015)

The Ukrainian people aspire to set up in their own country the freedoms and the politically independent Rule of Law that we in the West take so much for granted. The fears of Alexei Navalny is what Putin has set up in Ukrainian Crimea, and who wishes also to import these fears into eastern Ukraine.

(to be continued)