Has Putin's final push in eastern Ukraine begun?

From the 'Treaty of Brest Litovsk' (1918)  to the 'Treaty of Rapallo' (1922) to the 'Molotov Ribbentrop Pact' (1939); the common thread running through these treaties and this pact revolves around land grabs organized between Russia and Germany.

In the case of the 'Treaty of Brest Litovsk', the countries that were divided up between Russia and Germany included Poland, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Belarus, Ukraine and the future Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia.

In the 'Treaty of Rapallo',

" ..... [it was] suggested that Germany and the Soviet Union should conclude an alliance to jointly invade Poland, followed by a war on France. " (Wikipedia)

Then along came the 'Molotov-Ribbentrop' pact which, in its 'secret protocol',

" .... Romania, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Finland were divided into German and Soviet "spheres of influence".

In the north, Finland, Estonia and Latvia were assigned to the Soviet sphere. Poland was to be partitioned in the event of its "political rearrangement"...." (Wikipedia)

Is it any wonder today (2015), that the Baltic states, Finland, and particularly Poland, are adopting defensive military postures against Putin as he continues his military 'Novorossiya' drive in Ukraine? 

As reported by Anna Dolgov (left) of The Moscow Times,

"...amid Western sanctions against Moscow for its annexation of Crimea and support for pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, the Kremlin has shifted to an increasing glorification of Soviet dictator Josef Stalin and his regime's pact with Nazi Germany. Putin said last November that the pact was not so bad." (Moscow Times : May. 11 2015) (my emphasis)

Many have lately been assuming that since Putin no longer uses the word 'Novorossiya' that somehow this is no longer the pivot around which his true agenda in his war with Ukraine revolves.

Yet yesterday we learn that,

"The United States says Ukrainian rebels launched more attacks over the last three days than any similar time period since February, in what may be an escalating effort by Russian-backed militants to destabilize Ukraine's Western-backed government." (Bradley Klapper : Associated Press : Aug. 10, 2015)

Indeed,

"The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry called the situation “a dangerous indication” of imminent conflict, AFP said. The attacks are the latest in recent allegations that separatist forces have breached the truce signed in Minsk in February." (Nash Jenkins : Time : Aug. 11, 2015) (my emphasis)

This sudden escalation has led the UK Defence Secretary, Michael Fallon, to warn that,

"The Ukraine conflict is a “red hot” war that shows no sign of ending soon, the Defence Secretary warned as he announced Britain will step up training to Ukrainian forces fighting Russian-backed separatists.

Michael Fallon said the 18-month long crisis had not settled into a frozen war and Ukraine’s eastern border was still at risk from Vladimir Putin." (Ben Farmer and Roland Oliphant : The Telegraph : 11 Aug 2015) (my emphasis)

That Putin's war with Ukraine is a "red hot" war is also signified by the fact that,

"....Russian soldiers are deserting the army because of the conflict in Ukraine. Their stories contradict the Kremlin's assertion that no government soldiers have been sent there.", as reported by Rory Challands. (Aljazeera : 11 Aug 2015) (my emphasis)

Putin's militaristic build-up of the Russian armed forces, as the Russian economy continues to fall into recession, together with his constant stoking of a nationalistic and militaristic fervor amongst the Russian people, as evidenced by the public destruction of "banned imported food", signifies that far from forgetting about his 'Novorossiya' dreams, he now seems determined to realize them.
  

His determination to realize his 'Novorossiya' dreams is further underscored by the fact that,

"An obscure row between supporters of the Russian Orthodox Church and Russian archaeologists reached the Kremlin on Saturday when President Vladimir Putin declared Unesco-listed ruins in Crimea a national [Russian] heritage site.

The governor of Sevastopol last week appointed a priest as the director of a historical area that contains Chersonesus, an ancient Greek city on the Crimean coast." (Roland Oliphant : The Daily Telegraph : 02 Aug 2015) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, all that the 'fragrant' Federica Mogherini's (Head of the EU's External Action Service) (left with Putin) spokesperson can say in relation to Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel proxies in eastern Ukraine trampling all over the Minsk2 proposals is that,

"The renewed escalation of the conflict raising the number of casualties, as a result of attacks on several government controlled areas today and in the night of 10 August on Starohnativka, violates the spirit and the letter of the Minsk Agreements....

The Minsk Agreements must be implemented in good faith, starting with full observation of the ceasefire and genuine withdrawal of heavy weapons. Further impetus must be given to talks within the Trilateral Contact Group, allowing for complete implementation of the Minsk Agreements within the agreed timeframe by the end of the year." (European Union External Action : 11/08/2015)(my emphasis)

Dearest 'fragrant' Federica Mogherini, 

'Pigs will Simply Not Fly'!

(to be continued)

As Putin destroys food, he is finally exposing his true nature to the Russian people

Brian Whitmore says that,

"War may be politics by other means. But Vladimir Putin also understands that politics can be war by other means.

Having failed to achieve the destabilization of Ukraine on the battlefield, the Kremlin leader now appears to be trying to achieve that goal politically -- by forcing the separatist-held parts of Donbas back into Ukraine, with broad autonomy, as a Trojan horse." (RFERL : July 31, 2015) (my emphasis)

An inhuman indicator of Putin's failure to destabilize Ukraine on the battlefield is his recent signing of a decree to destroy all western food that has been smuggled into Russia.

As Sarah Rainsford reports,

"The sight of vast amounts of banned foreign food being bulldozed, buried or burned is causing controversy in Russia.

 .....

Tens of thousands of people have joined a protest petition to President Vladimir Putin. 

...

As the presidential decree came into effect on Thursday, state TV ran reports accompanied by vivid images of huge, round cheeses being dumped and crushed.

Reporters hailed a crackdown on contraband, but many Russians are deeply disturbed by the development." (BBC News : 7 August 2015) (my emphasis)

And whilst Putin is destroying food as the number of Russians falling below the poverty line rapidly increases (cf also: Moscow Times),

"A new batch of coal in the amount of 80,000 tonnes has been supplied to energy-starving Ukraine from South Africa, Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Valeriy Voschevsky said on Tuesday at a round table discussion on preparations for the 2015-2016 heating season." (UNIAN : 04.08.2015) (my emphasis)

Bear in mind that South Africa is a member of the BRICS group, an association of five major emerging national economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. 

 One would have thought that the BRICS countries would have somehow supported Putin in his war with Ukraine. Not so in the case of South Africa.

And as TASS reports,

"The purchase of additional coal volumes [from South Africa] is on the agenda" (TASS : August 4, 2015) (my emphasis)

Adding to Putin's current headaches over his war with Ukraine, 

"Poland together with Ukraine's other neighbors should be involved in resolving the crisis in eastern Ukraine, Poland's president-elect Andrzej Duda (right) said." (Wiktor Szary : Reuters : Wed Aug 5, 2015) (my emphasis) 

This would blow up the rather cozy relationship that Putin has so far enjoyed with Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande during the Minsk talks that have so far have taken place. 

If either Putin, Merkel, or Hollande, publicly baulk at this suggestion of Polish President elect Andrzej Duda, then this will particularly expose Merkel and Hollande as having being soft on Putin all along.

And yet again, the president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko (right), has once more stated that,

""When I met with [Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Oleksandr] Turchynov, I assured him that this would never ever happen. Nobody will attack Ukraine from our territory unless our interests have been infringed or Ukraine has been first to attack. But this will never happen," Lukashenko told non-governmental Belarusian media, euroradio.fm broadcasts." (UNIAN : 04.08.2015) (my emphasis)

Added to which, Pavel Aksenov reports that,

"Last month, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin told parliament that Ukrainian components were used in the production of 186 types of Russian military equipment.

That is a serious problem, he admitted, and Moscow could resolve it only by 2018." (BBC News : 8 August 2015) (my emphasis)

From frigates to helicopters to Antonov transport planes; Russia needs the critical Ukrainian components for all of these war machines of Putin's.

 It would now seem that Putin has created for himself the perfect storm.

No matter how much his propaganda machinery tries to gloss over the fact that he is destroying tons of food, the Russian people are not fools. This action of his is doing him no favours with the Russian people. Rather, it is slipping the mask from his face and exposing his true nature to the Russian people.  No amount of the beating of the drum of 'Russian Nationalism' will make the Russian people forgive him for destroying food.

The suggestion of  the president-elect of Poland, Andrzej Duda, that he, together with others, join in on resolving the crisis in eastern Ukraine, is a diplomatic move that neither Putin, Merkel, nor Hollande dare ignore.

The fact that key elements of Putin's war machine are no longer supplied by Ukraine should also give him pause for concern.

Ukraine is now stocking up coal for the winter months from sources other than Russia. It has also been stocking up gas from sources other than Gazprom.    

Perhaps, most critical of all,

"Ukrainian security officials have renewed their request for U.S. weapons while meeting with a visiting congressional delegation headed by House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi." (Fox News (Associated Press): August 05, 2015) (cf also: Nancy Pelosi)(my emphasis)

(to be continued)

Putin, lies, and the breakdown of recent talks in Minsk

"....villains simply cannot trust one another. ..... it seems to come undone because the bad guys are inherently treacherous and suspicious of one another" (TV Tropes)

And so it is that,

"The bitter feuding between the [rebel groups in eastern Ukraine] raises the prospect of greater factional fighting among the rebel forces, deepening an already grave humanitarian situation and possibly complicating matters for President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia" (Andrew E. Kramer: New York Times: Aug. 4, 2015) (my emphasis)

Kramer further goes on to report that,

“The Cossacks are facing reprisals” from the separatists, Lyubov A. Korsakova, the editor of a Cossack newspaper, the Front Bulletin, said in an interview here in the traditional Cossack capital. “They started to disarm the Cossacks, and not only to disarm them, but to kill them.” (my emphasis) (cf also: RFREL) (Pic:Rebels carried a coffin holding the body of Aleksei B. Mozgovoi, a separatist leader, in Alchevsk, Ukraine)

 Meanwhile,

"... former Ukrainian Prime Minister Mykola Azarov, who is ... on the wanted list by the Ukrainian law enforcement officers, has announced the establishment of a "Committee of Salvation of Ukraine." (UNIAN : 03.08.2015) (my emphasis)

Putin claims, however, non-involvement in Azarov’s Committee of Ukraine’s Salvation

"The Russian authorities have no relation to the initiative of creating the Committee of Salvation of Ukraine and the election of its leader Volodymyr Oliynyk, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists on Monday." (ibid UNIAN) (my emphasis)

 

Of course Dmitry Peskov! And 'Pigs will fly'! 

As a 'diplomatic' ploy, Putin needs to have a so-called 'government in exile' for Ukraine residing in Moscow simply to deflect the gaze of the world away from the feuding that is now taking place between his Russian Cossacks and those Russians in eastern Ukraine that he was ostensibly saving from the Ukrainians.

Recall his 'mantra' since the beginning of his invasion of eastern Ukraine now more than a year ago that he was simply 'saving the Russian population in eastern Ukraine' from the Ukrainians.

Not only is Putin setting up his 'puppet government in exile', it now transpires that his propaganda machine has decided to go into the 'book publishing' business.

As reported by Anna Dolgov (left) of the Moscow Times,

"Russia's Investigative Committee has released a book supposedly documenting the "crimes" of Ukrainian government forces illustrated by a cover photo of a burning city — an image of alleged devastation that was exposed as a doctored "fake" by online activists more than a year ago." (Moscow Times : Aug. 04 2015) (my emphasis)

She further goes on to state that,

"Scores of reports by Russian officials and state-run media have been exposed as fake since the start of the conflict in Ukraine." 

.....

The publication comes shortly after Russia vetoed a UN Security Council resolution that would have established a tribunal for prosecuting those responsible for the downing of Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 over rebel-controlled eastern Ukraine last summer." (ibid Anna Dolgov) (my emphasis)

Even further miring Putin in the mud of his lies over his war with Ukraine, Christopher Harress reports that,

"A soldier fighting for pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine has sparked yet another war of words between Kiev and Moscow by claiming he is from 16th Airborne Brigade of the Russian army, according to a report Monday from the Organization for Security and Co-Operation in Europe, the group charged with overseeing the conflict." (International Business Times : August 04 2015) (my emphasis)

                                        

More significantly, however,

"Another round of peace talks on Ukraine in Belarusian capital of Minsk involving envoys from Russia, Ukraine, the OSCE and militant forces ended without no agreements reached." (UNIAN : 04.08.2015) (my emphasis)

As reported by Ukraine Today,

"Four main themes were discussed - based around security, the economy, politics and humanitarian issues. In particular, the demilitarization of the Azov Sea coastal village of Shyrokyne and the extension of a buffer zone along other parts of the front line." (Ukraine Today : Aug. 4, 2015)

The people of Mariupol, quite rightly, are concerned about this demilitarized zone that would expose them to Putin's Russian soldiers and his proxies.

"Hundreds of people have gathered in the centre of the strategic Ukrainian port city of Mariupol to protest against plans to create a demilitarised buffer zone to separate government troops and Russian-backed militants nearby in the village of Shyrokyne." (Ukraine Today : Aug. 3, 2015) 

 

Bear in mind that Putin has not yet  fully divested himself of his 'Novorossiya' dream, with a land link between Crimea and Russia being one of his primary aims.

As I stated in my blog entry on Monday,

"And as if to underline that Putin and Kirill are walking together in lockstep, Roland Oliphant informs us that,

"An obscure row between supporters of the Russian Orthodox Church and Russian archaeologists reached the Kremlin on Saturday when President Vladimir Putin declared Unesco-listed ruins in Crimea a [Russian] national heritage site."

With this in mind, one can understand the anxiety of the people of Mariupol over the creation of a possible demilitarized zone between themselves and Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel proxies holing themselves up in the village of Shyrokyne.

And as the price of oil and the value of the Rouble continues to fall, as it has done over recent days, and Putin's economy slips into even deeper recession, his placing of Russia on a war-footing will continue to accelerate.

(to be continued)

Putin has his sights on more than just Ukraine, whilst walking in the shadow of Patriarch Kirill

Lest we forget,

"A court in southwestern Russia has adjourned a preliminary hearing against captured Ukrainian pilot Nadezhda Savchenko to decide on her lawyers' request to move the trial to Moscow." (Daniel Schearf : VOA : July 31, 2015)

"Savchenko’s lawyers and critics say Russian authorities are staging a political trial against the pilot, who became a symbol of Ukrainian unity and resistance to the Russia-backed rebels.

The pilot says she was abducted inside Ukraine in June of last year by pro-Russia rebels and forcibly taken to Russia. She denies any involvement in the journalists' deaths, and her lawyers say they have telephone records proving Savchenko was already in custody at the time the two journalists were killed." (ibid Daniel Schearf) (my emphasis)

And whilst Putin's cruel saga over the fate of Savchenko continues, James Dunn informs us that,

"The French have reportedly struck a compensation deal with Russia after refusing to give them two warships because of their aggressive role in the Ukraine.
.......
"Russia's business daily Kommersant reported that the compensation could amount to as much as 1.16 billion euros (£820million) and a deal definitively inked in the first ten days of August. (Daily Mail : 31 July 2015) (my emphasis)

In many ways, Putin's cruel saga over the fate of Savchenko, and his receiving of compensation from French president Francois Hollande, rather neatly sums up both Putin's contempt for the Rule of Law, his contempt for the life of others, as well as the 'fear' that he has engendered amongst many western politicians (including President Obama) because of his 'nuclear sabre rattling'. 

Indeed, the public revealing that his Russian soldiers and proxies in eastern Ukraine are attempting to construct a 'dirty nuclear bomb' illustrates his contempt for the lives of others.

Recall that when Putin was Prime minister of Russia during the Yeltsin era, the culprits behind the Russian apartment bombings in Moscow in September of 1999, together with the failed attempt to blow up Russian apartments in Ryazan, have still not being brought to justice. The evidence, however, strongly points to Putin and his FSB as being responsible for these heinous crimes.

With Putin's Russian soldiers and proxies in eastern Ukraine attempting to construct a 'dirty nuclear bomb' on his mind, Poroshenko (right) is also having to deal with President Obama and some EU leaders, especially Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande, who are forcing him to cave in to the demands of Putin that the area controlled by his Russian soldiers and proxy rebels in eastern Ukraine be given special status.

Consequently, just recently,

"Ukraine's highest court has approved constitutional changes that would allow limited self-rule to the rebel-held eastern areas of Donetsk and Luhansk.

The changes are part of a peace deal aimed at ending fighting between Ukrainian forces and pro-Russia rebels." (BBC News :31 July 2015) (my emphasis)

These developments have precipitated Dmytro Yarosh (right), Right Sector’s leader, to rally those behind him to try and confront Poroshenko.

As Jessica Menton (left) reports,

"Fears are growing among troops in Ukraine that members of the Right Sector, the far-right group that grew from the militant protesters who toppled former President Viktor Yanukovych, could turn on the new government. " (International Business Times : August 02 2015) (my emphasis)

More disconcerting, however, is the fact that, in a joint telephone briefing in which ERR News participated in, the top US and EU diplomats in Ukraine emphasized that the Western aim is to help Ukraine overcome the systemic weaknesses from its past and give a boost to reforms while,

“Russian drones are operating over Ukrainian territory every single day. Russian cruise surface-to-air missile systems are operating on Ukrainian territory.

And as we were reminded by the capture of a Russian soldier and Russian origin ammunition last weekend, Russia continues to fuel the conflict here with the military equipment that it is sending across Ukraine’s sovereign international border,” [US Ambassador to Ukraine] Pyatt (right)  said, adding that Kremlin and its proxies are maintaining the capability to continue seeking to grab territory at a time and place of the Kremlin’s choosing." (Estonian Public Broadcasting : 31/7/2015)

As a consequence,

"Ukraine's Ministry of Foreign Affairs (left: Ukraine Foreign Minister Klimkin) says in its statement on the occasion of the 40th anniversary of the Helsinki Final Act that Russian aggression against Ukraine has violated most of the fundamental principles and obligations of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE)." (UNIAN : 01.08.2015)

It is therefore no wonder that,

"Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko on Monday (3 August, 2015) accused his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin of wanting to take over the "whole of Europe" and potentially aiming his sights next at Finland and the Baltics.

"Putin wants to go as far as we allow him -- not only Ukraine, but the whole of Europe," Poroshenko said in an interview with French radio station RFI." ([Agence France Press] AhramOnline :  Monday 3 Aug 2015)

And marching alongside Putin we have none other than Partiarch Kirill. (right), the former 'tobacco oligarch' of the mid 1990's.

"On the eve of the 1000th anniversary of death of Vladimir the Great, Patriarch Kirill (of the Russian Orthodox Church) sent “letters of similar content” to the presidents of Russia and Ukraine urging them to “use all efforts to stop the bloodshed in east Ukraine. Drawing attention to the plight of civilians in the conflict, the patriarch urges: “a full cessation of hostilities, the strict observance of the Minsk accords, and the establishment of direct dialogue between all parties to the conflict…”

On the one hand, the language used in this letter places Kirill in the “moderate” pro-Russian position, that direct talks between the “rebels” (read, Russian stooges) and the Ukrainian government are necessary to terminate the conflict..." (Alex L. Leonor : EuroMaidan Press : 29/7/2015)

And as if to underline that Putin and Kirill are walking together in lockstep, Roland Oliphant informs us that,

"An obscure row between supporters of the Russian Orthodox Church and Russian archaeologists reached the Kremlin on Saturday when President Vladimir Putin declared Unesco-listed ruins in Crimea a national heritage site.

The governor of Sevastopol last week appointed a priest as the director of a historical area that contains Chersonesus, an ancient Greek city on the Crimean coast.
.....
Sergei Menyailo, the governor of Sevastopol, appointed Father Sergei Khalyuta, the archpriest of the city’s diocese, to run the site, saying it should be “a place of pilgrimage, not just tourism.” (The Telegraph : 02 Aug 2015)

Is it any wonder that Patriarch Kirill is on record as saying in 2012 that,

"...the 12 years of Vladimir Putin's rule [was] a "miracle of God" and criticised his opponents, at a gathering where religious leaders heaped praise on the prime minister." (Gleb Bryanski : Reuters : Wed Feb 8, 2012)

(to be continued) 
 

Putin and the 'dirty nuclear bomb'!

In my last blog entry I said that,

"And, as I have said before, Putin becomes very dangerous when he discovers that he has painted himself into a 'diplomatic' corner."

In April of this year Putin threatened to use 'nuclear' weapons if anyone should try to reclaim Ukrainian Crimea.

As John Hall reported on 2 April 2015,

"Vladimir Putin is planning to exploit the threat of nuclear war to force Nato out of countries bordering Russia, it has been claimed.

A secret meeting between intelligence figures in Moscow and Washington reportedly revealed Putin will consider any attempt to return the Crimean peninsula to Ukraine as declaration of war and will take any necessary step - including using nuclear weapons - to retain control of the region." (MailOnline : 2 April, 2015) (my emphasis)

This is now coming true in the case of eastern Ukraine. As Taku Dzimwasha (right), International Business Times journalist, informs us,

"Pro-Moscow rebels in Ukraine building 'dirty' bomb with help of Russian scientists" published on August 1 that pro-Russian rebels in Ukraine are "building a dirty bomb" with the assistance of Russian nuclear scientists, according to a Ukrainian security service report seen by The Times." (UNIAN : 01.08.2015) (my emphasis)

Taku Dzimwasha further reports that,

"When the accusations were put to an unnamed DPR official, he initially denied that the factory stored radioactive waste, but eventually admitted to its existence, The Times reported.

"Everyone knows that there is a small repository with [radioactive] waste," he said. "But the story that we signed an agreement with Russia is fake."

Russia's state-owned nuclear agency Rosatom denied that its staff had travelled to Donetsk and challenged the idea that radioactive material was being stored in the area.

However, a spokesman did acknowledge that there were private companies and individuals in Russia capable of removing the material from the bunker, IBTimes wrote." (ibid UNIAN) (my emphasis)

The OSCE is currently being denied access to a large part of the eastern Ukrainian area controlled by Putin's Russian soldiers and his rebel proxies.

"The SMM is restrained in fulfilling its monitoring functions by restrictions imposed by third parties and security considerations, including the presence – and lack of information on the whereabouts – of mines, and damaged infrastructure. The security situation in Donbas is fluid and unpredictable and the ceasefire does not hold everywhere. (OSCE : 29 July 2015)
 
Is this because Putin's proxies and Russian soldiers are secretly building a 'dirty nuclear bomb'?

That they would do so is fully in line with Putin's own threats to use 'nuclear force' to retain annexed Ukrainian Crimea.   

In a recent address in Aspen, Colorado, Bill Browder (right) ended by saying that,

"We have a man [Putin] who is a mafia boss, whose stolen a lot of money, whose terrified of losing power, whose ready to do anything to stay in power, including using the nuclear arsenal [of Russia] if that's what it takes. And that's terrifying."

In light of this terrifying news, for just how long will the EU and President Obama continue to appease Putin?

As Vladimir Socor (right) explains,

"Berlin, Paris, Brussels and even Washington lack the means or the will to deal with that situation on the ground. Instead, they have taken to urging Kyiv to implement political clauses first, irrespective of Russia’s noncompliance on the military side; thus reversing the Minsk sequence and canceling even the pretense of reciprocity. Their policy can be described as “Minsk revisionism.” 

This generates concentric pressures on Ukraine, essentially to legitimize the Donetsk-Luhansk authorities through direct negotiations on political and constitutional issues. " (The Jamestown Foundation: July 20, 2015) (my emphasis)

Did they have the news about this 'dirty nuclear' bomb that Putin's Russian soldiers and his proxies are developing before it became public?

Was it this that has propelled them into putting pressure on Poroshenko to implement the political clauses of Putin's Minsk2 proposals BEFORE his Russian soldiers and their military equipment are removed from eastern Ukraine?

Indeed, was it the news about this 'dirty nuclear bomb' that forced Angela Merkel to give the green light to,

"The German military plans to spend an additional 20 million euros, or $21 million, on its military budget this year in preparation for NATO military exercises in September, the German Defense Ministry announced  Thursday. The NATO exercises are set to take place in Ukraine amid criticism that they are a thinly veiled warning to Russia about its involvement in the violent civil conflict in Ukraine." ? (International Business Times : July 30 2015)

(to be continued)

Putin's economy, and Germany's increasing military expenditure

A little over a month ago (June 18, 2015 ), Mikhail Khodorkovsky stated that,

"The Russia-Ukraine conflict has no short-term solution and is part of a fabricated conflict with the West to distract everyday Russians from corruption and incompetence .... " (RFERL : June 18, 2015) (my emphasis)

And in yesterday's blog entry I mentioned that Delphine d'Amora  (right) succintly pointed out that,

"Three years ago, President Vladimir Putin promised the Russian people a kind of utopia: salaries would grow by up to 50 percent, average life expectancy would rise to 74 and waiting lists at kindergartens would disappear.
.....
Russia's regional governments have fallen deeply into debt under the weight of these pledges. And with a drop in aid from the federal budget, which is increasingly tied up in such expensive projects as military rearmament and the integration of Crimea, relief is nowhere in sight." (Moscow Times : Jul. 15 2015) (my emphasis)

More pertinent, however, Vitaliy Portnikov (below: left) wrote on 5 July, 2015, that,

"As paradoxical as it may sound, despite its 4 percent decline, Ukraine’s GDP is rising. It is rising–despite the war, the populist politicians, the sabotaging officials, the still paternalistic society, the lack of a professional approach to reform." (Euromaidan Press :5 July, 2015) (my emphasis)

At the same time he pointed out that:

(1) Both countries have almost the same decline in GDP: Ukraine – 4 percent as compared with the fourth quarter of last year. In Russia it’s 3.5 percent

(2) And this despite the fact that Ukraine has lost territory, while Russia has acquired territory.

(3) This despite the fact that there is a war in Ukraine, while in Russia there is peace.

(4) This despite the fact that Ukraine has no energy to export, while Russia has both oil and gas.  
      (ibid Vitaly Portnikov) (my emphasis)

More recently (23 Jul 2015), David Lidington and Konrad Pawlik (right) have informed us that,

"Recently a senior figure from the IMF – an organization not usually given to hyperbole – said that the new Ukrainian Government is the ‘most reform-oriented government’ that he had encountered in 20-plus years of dealing with Ukraine." (EurActiv : 23 Jul 2015) (my emphasis)

They also point out that it has taken a peaceful Poland, together with its accession to the EU, and without having to suffer a war with Putin's Russia, 25 years to achieve its current position as an independent and thriving democratic state.

They further point out that,

".....  Ukraine’s democratic transformation will take time. We all know from our own experience, the road to reform is a long one. It will require patience and determination on the part of the Ukrainian people and their elected officials." (ibid Lidington and Pawlik) (my emphasis)

Yet the western press in particular has recently focused its attention on reporting the conflict between Poroshenko and Dmytro Korchynsky, the commander of the right-wing "Saint Mary", a volunteer battalion, even though, as the 2014 election results show,

"Six or seven parties look likely enter the new parliament, with a mixture of nationalists and a pro-Russian bloc scraping past the 5% threshold to fill out the bottom tier. The results are a bitter defeat for both the far right and the far left, and a signal in favour of moderation from voters seeking calm after a long storm." (The Economist : Oct 27th 2014)

How disturbing that the current conflict between the Ukrainian right-winger Dmytro Korchynsky and Poroshenko rather eclipses the significant move to the right of the Hungarian Prime Minister, Victor Orban (right), who recently stated that,

"...black African immigrants come here and rape European women and that the Hungarian Left does not like Hungarians...”. ( Richard Field : The Budapest Beacon: July 26, 2015)

Even more pertinent, as Anton Shekhovtsov informs us,

"As I have argued previously in this blog, the overwhelming majority of Ukrainian far right organizations are criminal gangs that exploit a radical right-wing ideology for mobilization purposes. The incident in Mukacheve seems to be an example of a criminal (far right) group trying to hijack an illegal business operated by another (non-political) criminal gang." (Anton Shekhovtsov's Blog : 13 July,2015) (my emphasis)

No doubt Putin is receiving comfort from this conflict between Poroshenko and  Dmytro Korchynsky, whilst he bankrolls France's Marine Le Pen's right-wing Front Nationale, and invites Sarkozy's members of the French parliament to visit annexed Crimea. (right: Marine Le Pen and Nicolas Sarkozy)

Russia's puppet government in Crimea greets the French MPs.

But whilst all of this is giving Putin some comfort, Jess McHugh informs us that,

 

"The German military plans to spend an additional 20 million euros, or $21 million, on its military budget this year in preparation for NATO military exercises in September, the German Defense Ministry (Ursula von der Leyen : left) announced  Thursday. The NATO exercises are set to take place in Ukraine amid criticism that they are a thinly veiled warning to Russia about its involvement in the violent civil conflict in Ukraine." (International Business Times : July 30 2015)

Putin must, indeed, be spitting nails at this German development, just as Reuters informs us that,

"Ukraine's state security service on Wednesday named a Russian army major who was detained by Ukrainian servicemen at the weekend with a cargo of military equipment in eastern Ukraine and said he had been charged with terrorism." (Reuters : Wed Jul 29, 2015) (my emphasis)

Mo Ahmad, of Press Examiner, also informs us that,

"Vladimir Starkov – an army major who got lost while driving a truck filled with explosives to a guerrilla outpost. But he admitted that he was a chief of an RAO (rocket-artillery weapons unit)." (Press Examiner : July 30, 2015)

Will Putin now also disown this Russian soldier, as he has done so many times to other Russian soldiers captured by the Ukrainian forces?

Putin's lies, not only directed towards the west but, more importantly, towards the Russian people itself, must be beginning to give him sleepless nights.

And, as I have said before, Putin becomes very dangerous when he discovers that he has painted himself into a 'diplomatic' corner.

(to be continued)

Putin and President Obama. The selling out of Ukraine.

Eight hours ago,

"Russia has used its veto at the UN to block a draft resolution to set up an international tribunal into the MH17 air disaster in July 2014.

It was the only nation at the 15-member UN Security Council to oppose the move, triggering widespread condemnation." (BBC News : 30 July,2015) (my emphasis)

Putin himself stated that,

"a tribunal would be "counter productive"". (ibid BBC)

And whilst Putin is exposing to the world his 'fear' of the truth emerging about the downing of MH17 by his proxies in eastern Ukraine who used Russian military equipment,  we learn that US political journalist Brian Whitmore speculates that,

"there have long been suspicions that the United States and Europe might give Ukraine up in exchange for Russia's support in securing a deal to curb Iran's nuclear program.
.....
"Moscow's endgame is to embed Russian territories back into Ukraine as a Trojan horse. And it is desperate to cut a deal to secure this result."  (Ukraine Today : Jul. 29, 2015) (my emphasis)

This endgame of Putin's is, in fact, being imposed upon Poroshenko by BOTH President Obama AND the EU's Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande.

As Vladimir Socor (right) explains,

"Berlin, Paris, Brussels and even Washington lack the means or the will to deal with that situation on the ground. Instead, they have taken to urging Kyiv to implement political clauses first, irrespective of Russia’s noncompliance on the military side; thus reversing the Minsk sequence and canceling even the pretense of reciprocity. Their policy can be described as “Minsk revisionism.” 

This generates concentric pressures on Ukraine, essentially to legitimize the Donetsk-Luhansk authorities through direct negotiations on political and constitutional issues. " (The Jamestown Foundation: July 20, 2015) (my emphasis)

Recall that on my June 24, 2015 blog entry I suggested that,

"The question that now needs to be asked is whether Merkel, Putin, and Hollande, who had a private Skype meeting about Ukraine without Poroshenko,

also discussed over the phone on Monday (Associated Press:22/06/2015) whether Ukraine should be,

"[carrying] out the “last” points of the Minsk agreement and not wait for Russia and the Russian-controlled militants to carry out their portion of the agreement." ( EuroMaidan Press)

It would now seem that this was, indeed, the case.

The Iran negotiations, together with dealing with ISIS and Bashar Al Assad, seems to be the endgame of President Obama. 

The United States presidential election of 2016 is expected to be held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016.

That is 16 months away. 

President Obama has entered the last stretch of his Presidency. From here on in his endgame requires him now to make deals with Putin.   

 President Obama has his legacy firmly in sight, and it does not include ruffling Putin's feathers over Ukraine.

As Vladimir Socor explains,

"The other context of Nuland’s (right) intervention [for Ukraine to implement political clauses first, irrespective of Russia’s noncompliance on the military side] is the diplomatic rapprochement between the United States and Russia over the Middle East. This has spawned the bilateral channel of Nuland and Russian Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister Grigory Karasin, to deal with the problem of Ukraine.  
...........
While Ukraine is directly represented in the Normandy Quartet, it is unrepresented in the Nuland-Karasin channel." (ibid Vladimir Socor) (my emphasis)

And whilst President Obama now quietly slips into becoming an ex-president NATO, on the other hand, is beefing up its training of Ukrainian soldiers. (BBC News : 26 July 2015)

 

Furthermore, Ukraine is beefing up the protection of its border with Transnistria.

As Christopher Harress reports,

"Ukraine on Friday placed up to 7,000 troops on its southern border with the breakaway Moldovan state of Transnistria fearing pro-Russian hostility in the region ..." (International Business Times : July 24 2015)

 And whilst Ukraine is protecting its borders and is at war with Russia, Lauren Davidson (right) informs us that,

"Shoplifting in Russia surged last year as the economic fallout from crippling sanctions and plunging oil prices increased the number of people living in poverty.

Some 930m rubles (£10.4m) of goods were stolen from Russian stories in 2014, an increase of 44pc on the 648m rubles-worth swiped the previous year." (Daily Telegraph : 23 Jul 2015) (my emphasis)

And as if this were not enough,

"This is what belt-tightening looks like in Russia: Vladimir Putin has fired 110,000 government officials at a stroke.

The Russian president signed a decree last week limiting the number of staff employed by the Interior Ministry to just over one million. That requires massive layoffs that will bring total headcount down by 10%." (Ivana Kottasova : CNN Money : July 24, 2015) (my emphasis)

Added to which,

"Three years ago, President Vladimir Putin promised the Russian people a kind of utopia: salaries would grow by up to 50 percent, average life expectancy would rise to 74 and waiting lists at kindergartens would disappear.
.....
Russia's regional governments have fallen deeply into debt under the weight of these pledges. And with a drop in aid from the federal budget, which is increasingly tied up in such expensive projects as military rearmament and the integration of Crimea, relief is nowhere in sight. 
......
In the first quarter of this year, 26 regions slashed spending on education, 21 cut health care spending and 16 curtailed spending on social security, she said.

"In this situation, it's the people who suffer. Especially vulnerable people, low-income people — for whom a rise in the cost of utilities is very serious — and people who receive social subsidies," [Natalya Zubarevich] said." (Delphine d'Amora : Moscow Times : Jul. 15 2015) (my emphasis)

Is it any wonder that 'shoplifting is now becoming a Russian pastime?
 
Yet, without so much as batting an eyelid, Putin simply,

"....[uses his veto] at the UN to block a draft resolution to set up an international tribunal into the MH17 air disaster in July 2014." (ibid BBC News)

 (to be continued)