Putin's economy, and Germany's increasing military expenditure

A little over a month ago (June 18, 2015 ), Mikhail Khodorkovsky stated that,

"The Russia-Ukraine conflict has no short-term solution and is part of a fabricated conflict with the West to distract everyday Russians from corruption and incompetence .... " (RFERL : June 18, 2015) (my emphasis)

And in yesterday's blog entry I mentioned that Delphine d'Amora  (right) succintly pointed out that,

"Three years ago, President Vladimir Putin promised the Russian people a kind of utopia: salaries would grow by up to 50 percent, average life expectancy would rise to 74 and waiting lists at kindergartens would disappear.
.....
Russia's regional governments have fallen deeply into debt under the weight of these pledges. And with a drop in aid from the federal budget, which is increasingly tied up in such expensive projects as military rearmament and the integration of Crimea, relief is nowhere in sight." (Moscow Times : Jul. 15 2015) (my emphasis)

More pertinent, however, Vitaliy Portnikov (below: left) wrote on 5 July, 2015, that,

"As paradoxical as it may sound, despite its 4 percent decline, Ukraine’s GDP is rising. It is rising–despite the war, the populist politicians, the sabotaging officials, the still paternalistic society, the lack of a professional approach to reform." (Euromaidan Press :5 July, 2015) (my emphasis)

At the same time he pointed out that:

(1) Both countries have almost the same decline in GDP: Ukraine – 4 percent as compared with the fourth quarter of last year. In Russia it’s 3.5 percent

(2) And this despite the fact that Ukraine has lost territory, while Russia has acquired territory.

(3) This despite the fact that there is a war in Ukraine, while in Russia there is peace.

(4) This despite the fact that Ukraine has no energy to export, while Russia has both oil and gas.  
      (ibid Vitaly Portnikov) (my emphasis)

More recently (23 Jul 2015), David Lidington and Konrad Pawlik (right) have informed us that,

"Recently a senior figure from the IMF – an organization not usually given to hyperbole – said that the new Ukrainian Government is the ‘most reform-oriented government’ that he had encountered in 20-plus years of dealing with Ukraine." (EurActiv : 23 Jul 2015) (my emphasis)

They also point out that it has taken a peaceful Poland, together with its accession to the EU, and without having to suffer a war with Putin's Russia, 25 years to achieve its current position as an independent and thriving democratic state.

They further point out that,

".....  Ukraine’s democratic transformation will take time. We all know from our own experience, the road to reform is a long one. It will require patience and determination on the part of the Ukrainian people and their elected officials." (ibid Lidington and Pawlik) (my emphasis)

Yet the western press in particular has recently focused its attention on reporting the conflict between Poroshenko and Dmytro Korchynsky, the commander of the right-wing "Saint Mary", a volunteer battalion, even though, as the 2014 election results show,

"Six or seven parties look likely enter the new parliament, with a mixture of nationalists and a pro-Russian bloc scraping past the 5% threshold to fill out the bottom tier. The results are a bitter defeat for both the far right and the far left, and a signal in favour of moderation from voters seeking calm after a long storm." (The Economist : Oct 27th 2014)

How disturbing that the current conflict between the Ukrainian right-winger Dmytro Korchynsky and Poroshenko rather eclipses the significant move to the right of the Hungarian Prime Minister, Victor Orban (right), who recently stated that,

"...black African immigrants come here and rape European women and that the Hungarian Left does not like Hungarians...”. ( Richard Field : The Budapest Beacon: July 26, 2015)

Even more pertinent, as Anton Shekhovtsov informs us,

"As I have argued previously in this blog, the overwhelming majority of Ukrainian far right organizations are criminal gangs that exploit a radical right-wing ideology for mobilization purposes. The incident in Mukacheve seems to be an example of a criminal (far right) group trying to hijack an illegal business operated by another (non-political) criminal gang." (Anton Shekhovtsov's Blog : 13 July,2015) (my emphasis)

No doubt Putin is receiving comfort from this conflict between Poroshenko and  Dmytro Korchynsky, whilst he bankrolls France's Marine Le Pen's right-wing Front Nationale, and invites Sarkozy's members of the French parliament to visit annexed Crimea. (right: Marine Le Pen and Nicolas Sarkozy)

Russia's puppet government in Crimea greets the French MPs.

But whilst all of this is giving Putin some comfort, Jess McHugh informs us that,

 

"The German military plans to spend an additional 20 million euros, or $21 million, on its military budget this year in preparation for NATO military exercises in September, the German Defense Ministry (Ursula von der Leyen : left) announced  Thursday. The NATO exercises are set to take place in Ukraine amid criticism that they are a thinly veiled warning to Russia about its involvement in the violent civil conflict in Ukraine." (International Business Times : July 30 2015)

Putin must, indeed, be spitting nails at this German development, just as Reuters informs us that,

"Ukraine's state security service on Wednesday named a Russian army major who was detained by Ukrainian servicemen at the weekend with a cargo of military equipment in eastern Ukraine and said he had been charged with terrorism." (Reuters : Wed Jul 29, 2015) (my emphasis)

Mo Ahmad, of Press Examiner, also informs us that,

"Vladimir Starkov – an army major who got lost while driving a truck filled with explosives to a guerrilla outpost. But he admitted that he was a chief of an RAO (rocket-artillery weapons unit)." (Press Examiner : July 30, 2015)

Will Putin now also disown this Russian soldier, as he has done so many times to other Russian soldiers captured by the Ukrainian forces?

Putin's lies, not only directed towards the west but, more importantly, towards the Russian people itself, must be beginning to give him sleepless nights.

And, as I have said before, Putin becomes very dangerous when he discovers that he has painted himself into a 'diplomatic' corner.

(to be continued)