Putin, Tsipras, and Putin's changing 'offensive' strategy against Ukraine.

Last month (19 June, 2015), Neil MacFarquhar reported  that,

"... [Putin] and [Alexis Tsipras] produced a grand pageant of solidarity, friendship and supposed economic cooperation at Russia’s annual gathering for global business executives Friday, but the embrace seemed mostly about thumbing their noses at Europe." (New York Times : June 19, 2015) (my emphasis) (cf: also blog entry (20 June, 2015))

Furthermore, Sandy MacIntyre and Nataliya Vasilyeva also reported that,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin said after Friday's talks with Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras that a prospective Russian natural gas pipeline should help Greece service its debt, but the Kremlin said the question of direct Russian financial aid to Greece was not discussed.

..."We are starting a new era in Greek-Russian relations and we consider you who live here [in Russia] to be playing a very important part in this effort," Tsipras said. " (AP : 20 June, 2015) (my emphasis)

This grandstanding between Putin and Tsipras has, however, fallen flat on its face.

A few hours ago (July 1, 2015), Tsipras has finally cut Greece adrift in a sea of debt; a sea of debt that simply cannot be serviced by the proposed Russian natural gas pipeline to be developed in Greece.

Will Putin now come to the rescue of his newfound EU bosom buddy Tsipras who may, pending the result of the Greek referendum this coming Saturday (4 July, 2015), have to resign his post as prime minister of Greece?

Putin cannot afford the billions that is required to make his annexed Ukrainian Crimea a viable economic entity.

Neither can he, as Mary Chastain reports, live up to his,

".... promise “to spend 22 trillion rubles (over $400 billion) through 2020 to give the armed forces dozens of navy ships, hundreds of new planes and missiles and thousands of tanks and other weapons.” But his nuclear-armed intercontinental missile program has been delayed, which means the first missile will not be available for several months. There are no specific details regarding why it is taking so long. (Breitbart : 28 June, 2015) (my emphasis)

Added to which, as reported by Daryna Krasnolutska, Elena Mazneva, and Alexander Weber,

"Ukraine halted purchases of Russian natural gas after its bigger neighbor took away most of a price discount and declined to sign a three-way accord with the European Union through the winter heating season.

Ukraine’s gas company NAK Naftogaz Ukrainy won’t buy gas from Russia as of Wednesday and will continue purchases from the EU, Energy Minister Volodymyr Demchyshyn (left) said." (Bloomberg Business : July 1, 2015) (my emphasis) (Cf: also Putin's propaganda mouthpiece, RT)

Putin's Russian economy, that is falling into an even deeper recession than previously predicted, cannot afford to loose ANY customers for its gas exports. 

As reported by Boby Michael,

"The Russian economy contracted more than expected in May, increasing the likelihood of further rate cuts by the world's ninth largest economy, while the rouble fell to a 11-day low against the dollar.

The Russian Federation's economy shrank 4.9% from a year earlier in May, registering its fifth straight month of contraction, and deeper than April's 4.2% decline." (International Business Times: June 26, 2015) (my emphasis)

Yet Putin continues to accelerate the movement of arms and Russian soldiers into eastern Ukraine.

As the top NATO commander, Air Force Gen. Philip M. Breedlove (left), said last week that,

" .... the border between Ukraine and Russia is “wide open,” and Moscow’s military action in the region is carefully orchestrated to keep pressure on Ukraine from aligning too closely with the West. There is a “constant flow” of troops and equipment across the border, he added." (Dan Lamothe : Washington Post : 30 June, 2015) (my emphasis)

Lamothe further informs us that,

"A Ukrainian group that backs the government in Kiev on Tuesday published video captured by drone aircraft and said it shows a Russian military encampment in eastern Ukraine, bolstering claims that Moscow has expanded its military actions there." (ibid Dan Lamothe) (my emphasis) 

Meanwhile the OSCE continues to report on an increase in the breaking of the Minsk2 'ceasefire'. 

Yesterday (30 June, 2015) it reported that,

"The SMM monitored the implementation of the “Package of measures for the implementation of the Minsk agreements”. Its monitoring was restricted by third parties and security considerations*. The fighting at and around Donetsk airport continued with increased intensity compared to the previous few days. The SMM conducted crater analysis. The overall situation in Luhansk remained tense..." (OSCE : 30 June, 2015) (my emphasis)   

Bearing in mind the current Greek economic disaster, the yet-again exposing of Russian troops and armaments in eastern Ukraine, and the continuing contracting of Putin's Russian economy; 

Paul Goble (left) informs us that Andrey Piontkovsky (right), Russian political writer and analyst, is of the opinion that,

"Vladimir Putin’s “peace offensive,” marked by his call to US President Barack Obama, means that the situation [in Ukraine] is becoming “really dangerous,” Andrey Piontkovsky says, because the Kremlin leader has not changed his goal of destroying Ukraine as a state but only the means he is prepared to use to get there.

            And those means, including his oft-repeated commitment to maintaining the territorial integrity of Ukraine “minus Crimea of course,” include the insertion of a cancerous tumor within the boundaries of that country and the election of pro-Russian candidates to the Verkhovna Rada, may be even more dangerous than a direct military attack." (Window on Eurasia : Monday, June 29, 2015) (cf also: EuroMaidan Press) (my emphasis)
 
At this point in time Putin is more unpredictable and more dangerous than ever, as  Andrey Piontkovsky says, now that his 'maskirovka' diplomatic strategy to sow the seeds of dissent within the EU has taken a body blow because of the EU not bowing to the Greek demands of his buddy Tsipras.

(to be continued)