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Saturday 11 July 2015

Putin and Hollande ... The new duo rising above the Ukrainian horizon?

Finally the mask behind which Merkel and Hollande were hiding their true 'sympathies' with Putin has finally slipped down.

AFP (Agence France Press) now informs us that,

German Chancellor Angela Merkel addresses journalists during press conference in Sarajevo, Bosnia, Thursday, July 9, 2015"German chancellor Angela Merkel and French president Francois Hollande took the rare step on Friday of pressing Ukraine's Western-backed leader to ensure partial self-rule for the pro-Russian separatist east." (The Telegraph : 10 Jul 2015) (my emphasis)

On my 24th June blog entry I wrote that,

"The question that now needs to be asked is whether Merkel, Putin, and Hollande, who had a private Skype meeting about Ukraine without Poroshenko, (AP : June 22, 2015)

also discussed over the phone on Monday whether Ukraine should be,

"[carrying] out the “last” points of the Minsk agreement and not wait for Russia and the Russian-controlled militants to carry out their portion of the agreement." (EuroMaidan Press :24/06/2015)

After all,

"French President Francois Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel lamented the "insufficient" progress in resolving the Ukraine crisis after a telephone conversation Monday with Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to a source close to the French president." (AFP :

Putin seems to have answered this question when he,

"...emphasized the need for Ukraine to conduct political settlement and provide social and economic assistance to the eastern region, according to the Kremlin." (ibid AP) (my emphasis)

Needless to say, following on from Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande announcing that Poroshenko should "ensure partial self-rule for the pro-Russian separatist east Ukraine", Reuters informs us that a 'cheering',

"Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday that there were more chances for Ukraine crisis to be successfully resolved rather than for it to fail.

He also said efforts to resolve the crisis have been hindered by Kiev's reluctance to directly negotiate with the rebels in east Ukraine." (Reuters : Friday Jul 10, 2015)

The fact that the Minsk2 protocols were practically written by Putin himself, and that Putinversteher Angela Merkel, and Francois Hollande, are finally caving in to Putin's demands, also signals that Francois Hollande is now taking over from Merkel as the key EU negotiator with Putin over his war with Ukraine.

As Gordon Rayner (right) reports,

Gordon RaynerFrench Education Minister Benoît Hamon"Merkel has lost. Germany has lost.” Not the reaction from a rabidly left-wing Greek tabloid to the country’s referendum vote, but from Benoit Hamon (left), the former French education minister and ally of Francois Hollande.

For Mr Hamon, the resounding “no” vote was “an opportunity for Francois Hollande to resume leadership” in Europe. Old divisions run deep across the continent, and the Greek crisis brought them right back to the surface as Europe’s financial superpowers squabbled like children at playtime. (The Telegraph : 06 Jul 2015)

And as Angela Merkel is now being eclipsed by Francoise Hollande as the 'EU leader' in Europe,

Marine Corps General Joseph Dunford testifies during the Senate Armed Services committee nomination hearing to be chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff on Capitol Hill in Washington, July 9, 2015"The nominee to be the next chairman of the [US] Joint Chiefs of Staff said Thursday that Russia poses the greatest national security threat to the United States and that it would be "reasonable" to supply lethal arms to Ukrainians fighting against rebels backed by Moscow.

"Russia presents the greatest threat to our national security. ... If you look at their behavior, it's nothing short of alarming," Marine Gen. Joseph Dunford (above) said during his confirmation hearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee." (Fox News (AP) : July 09, 2015)

If, as suggested by Benoit Hamon, Francoise Hollande now takes over the 'leadership' role in Europe, and given the underlying antipathy of the French towards the US since the time of De Gaulle (not to mention the historical 'love affair' between the French intellectuals and Russia), we can then expect a swift call by Hollande that:
  • EU sanctions against Russia be re-negotiated (especially in light of the current Mistral affair between Putin and Hollande)
  • greater pressure to be brought upon Poroshenko to give in to Putin's demands
  • US support for Poroshenko, especially military support, to be 'diplomatically' undermined
  • decisions about EU economic support for Ukraine to be dragged out ....
to name but a few 'Hollande inspired' political developments if he takes over the leadership role in Europe.

More intrestingly, the time has now come to ponder just how long Angela Merkel can maintain her position as Chancellor of Germany.

As



Germany chancellor Angela Merkel“This is the toughest time in her chancellorship so far. Can she resist the voices of opposition within her own party to push through a third bailout in the Bundestag that most of them are against?” said Artur Fischer.

“She is facing huge internal difficulties that have the potential to end her chancellorship." (The Guardian : Friday 10 July 2015) (my emphasis)

And as Hollande's star seems to be rising over Europe, whilst Merkel's is beginning to wane (even in her own country), the OSCE informs us that,

"The situation at and around the Donetsk airport was volatile. Between 08:00 and 18:00hrs, at the Joint Centre for Control and Co-ordination (JCCC) observation point at Donetsk central railway station (“Donetsk People’s Republic” (“DPR”)-controlled, 8km north-west of Donetsk city centre), the SMM heard nearly 500 explosions, consistent with incoming and outgoing mortar fire, as well as bursts consistent with small-arms, automatic grenade launcher, heavy machine-gun (HMG) and anti-aircraft gun fire." (OSCE : 8 July 2015) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, Natalia Zinets informs us that,

"The level of guerrilla and terrorist threats in the regions outside the zone (of conflict) has significantly risen," Poroshenko (left) said.

He said weapons were being trafficked from the conflict zone. With police resources focused on the east, "there will be an increase in grievous and especially life-threatening crimes" in other parts of Ukraine, he said." (Reuters : Fri Jul 10, 2015) (my emphasis)

Confirming Poroshenko's anxieties,

"An armed assault has left three postal service employees dead in the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, local police reported Friday, July 10, acccording to Ukrainian news agency TSN." (Ukraine Today : Jul. 10, 2015)

The Greek economic crisis has deepened the fissure between those EU members in support of Poroshenko, and those who support Putin.

Angela Merkel has tried to straddle that fissure, but to no avail. In the end, the legacy of the German 'Ostpolitic' of Willy Brandt has begun to overwhelm her.

How Hollande will cope with the pro-Ukraine and ptro-Putin camps in the EU remains to be seen. Thus far he has leaned strongly towards the pro-Putin camp.

Like his predecessor, Nikolas Sarkozy, will Hollande, too, enjoy a 'liquid' lunch of vodka with Putin, as once did Sarkozy, that rather exemplifies that historical 'French-Russian love affair'?


(to be continued)

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