Putin and Obama. The Ukrainian war begins to unravel.

Yesterday the Ukrainian Rada (parliament) took the first steps towards giving the rebels in eastern Ukraine temporary self-rule. As Dmitry Zaks (left) informs us,

"Ukraine's parliament took the first step Thursday toward granting temporary self-rule to pro-Russian rebels under a change to the constitution the West hopes can end one of Europe's deadliest wars in recent years." (AFP : 17 July, 2015) (my emphasis)

It should not go un-noticed that the Minsk2 proposals, with Putin's fingerprints all over them, amongst other conditions stipulates that BEFORE temporary self-rule should be implemented that :

• there should be an IMMEDIATE AND FULL ceasefire
• withdrawal of heavy weaponry
• On the first day after the pullout a dialogue is to start on modalities of conducting local elections in accordance with the Ukrainian legislation and the Law of Ukraine "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts," and also about the future of these districts based on the above-mentioned law. 
• Pullout of all foreign armed formations, military equipment, and also mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine under OSCE supervision. Disarmament of all illegal groups.

Yet three days ago (15 July, 2015) AP reports that,

"Eight Ukrainian troops were killed and 16 wounded in war-torn eastern Ukraine in a 24-hour period from Tuesday morning until Wednesday morning, officials in Kiev said.

The death toll released by the National Security and Defense Council is the highest in weeks, pointing to intensifying fighting in the area." (Mail Online : 15 July 2015) (my emphasis) (cf also Reuters : July 15, 2015)

Why, therefore, has Victoria Nuland applauded the first steps in the granting of "temporary self-rule" to the Putin and rebel-held territories in eastern Ukraine?

Are we all to naively assume, as Washington and its allies believe that,

"....partial self-rule could satisfy the insurgents and remove any arguments Russia may have for arming and funding their campaign -- support Moscow firmly denies ever giving."? (ibid Dmitry Zaks) (my emphasis)

Throughout his war with Ukraine, Putin has simple ignored BOTH the Minsk1 and the Minsk2 protocols. 

Putin has constantly lied through his teeth about there not being any Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine, even in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

Instead of granting temporary self-rule in eastern Ukraine as a  prelude   to 'diplomatically wrong-footing' (which is purely imaginary) Putin, we should be focusing on the fact that Putin has recently

• accelerated the volume of military equipment and Russian soldiers flooding into the rebel-held areas in eastern Ukraine,
• and only "last month defence minister Stepan Poltorak estimated that there were 55,000" Russian troops on Ukraine's border. (Damien Sharkov : Newsweek : 13 July, 2015)

Damien Sharkov further reports that,

"Poroshenko recently visited some of the easternmost positions held by pro-Kiev forces in Donetsk region, including the port city Mariupol (right), the outskirts of which have sustained some of the most persistent attacks from pro-Russian separatists since February.

"We have information about possible key targets of attacks and we regularly perform staff exercises," Poroshenko said." (my emphasis)

Why, then, should we believe that giving the rebel-held territories in eastern Ukraine "temporary self-rule" will force Putin to withdraw his troops and military equipment from Ukraine, whilst at the same time removing his army encamped on the border with Ukraine?

Ukraine is being none other than 'blackmailed' by Washington and its EU allies to give in to Putin because Putin has helped President Obama from having 'egg all over his face' on the Iran issue.

Perhaps, even more significantly,

"Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk is grappling with an effort to restructure his country's upcoming debt payments and keeping one eye on the other country caught in a similar—but far more clamorous—process elsewhere on the fringes of Europe: Greece." (Eamon Javers : CNBC : Wednesday, 15 Jul 2015) (my emphasis)

There is, furthermore, another factor that has to be taken into account.

Today the German Bundestag, like all parliaments in the Eurozone, vote on the Greek bailout.

 Peter Spence and Julia Bradshaw report that right now, in the German Bundestag,

"Sahra Wagenknecht (left), of Germany's socialist Die Linke party, has said that Germany's politicians will be right back to negotiating Greece again in another year.

Mr Schaeuble has admitted that he doesn't have confidence in another bail-out, she said, and the package will be just a drop in the ocean.

Speaking in the Bundestag, Ms Wagenknecht noted the IMF's projection that Greek debt to GDP will soon hit 200pc. She has called the German Government's handling of taxpayer money "shocking". (The Telegraph : 17 Jul 2015)

As I write, the German Bundestag has not yet come to a definitive decision.

But what Sahra Wagenknecht has so far said should give Angela Merkel serious cause for concern.

Merkels Chancellorship of Germany is under serious threat. And if she falls then President Obama will be left without his staunchest supporter in the EU, especially concerning the arming of Ukraine with lethal defensive weaponry.

In the next few days the ball concerning aiding Ukraine both financially AND militarily will be firmly in the court of President Obama.

Ukraine will be to President Obama what Greece is now to Angela Merkel. 

President Obama's presidential legacy is here at stake. 

Will he go down as the US President who sold out Ukraine to Putin?

(to be continued)