Is Putin beginning to loose his grip?

In the very first entry of this blog I wrote that,

"It is always easy to start a story with, “It happened when” …. or “It was a sunny day” … or any of the myriad opening lines that authors are so fond of using. But how do you begin a story that is simply a part of your life. If you believe in coincidences you simply hang the beginning of your story on a coincidence. But that is cheating. There are really no coincidences in life. Life is not simply a series of random coincidences." (blog entry : Tuesday, 10 June 2014)

The same can be said of political events.

So can it be a coincidence that,

"Geoffrey Pyatt (left), who currently heads the American Embassy in Ukraine, will become the next US ambassador in Greece, the US Senate confirmed Friday.

Pyatt is to replace David D. Pearce who is to depart from Athens in September.

The US Embassy in Athens confirmed the appointment on Twitter on Friday. " (Ekathimerini : 15.07.2016) (my emphasis) 

and that within two weeks of Ambassador Pyatt preparing to leave the American Embassy in Kiev,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree releasing Mikhail Zubarov (right) from his post as Russian ambassador to Ukraine on Thursday, according to a statement on the Kremlin's website.

Zubarov has been Russia's ambassador to Ukraine since 2009, having previously served as a presidential advisor. His firing was part of a significant governmental reshuffle on Thursday." (Moscow Times : Jul 29, 2016) (my emphasis)

 And on the war front in Donbas between Putin's Russian soldiers, together with his rebel proxies, and the Ukrainian army,

"According to Ukraine's military intelligence, the leaders of the so-called “DPR-LPR” terrorist organizations urgently recalled all militants from holidays and vacations and banned them from leaving their bases, TSN news service reported." (Unian : 22 July 2016) (my emphasis)

whilst, in his last few days as US Ambassador to Ukraine,

"Pyatt noted that the United States had pledged to provide more than $600 million dollars in aid to Ukraine in the field of security.

According to him, another batch of equipment is to be delivered to Ukraine this week, mentioning a big delivery of UAVs and more night vision devices expected to follow in the coming days." (Unian : 26 July 2016) (my emphasis)

This escalation of events on the Ukrainian war front precipipitated a call between President Obama and Angela Merkel.

As reported by Ukraine-Interfax,


"The president and the chancellor discussed the situation in Ukraine and reiterated the urgent importance of durably ending the violence in eastern Ukraine and of full and rapid implementation of the Minsk agreements," reads a posting on the website of the White House." (Ukraine-Interfax : 28.07.2016) (my emphasis)

 A further call took place between Ukrainian President Poroshenko and Angela Merkel.

"President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko had phone conversation with Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel.

[Poroshenko] expressed deep concern over the drastic escalation of the situation in Donbas and the increased number of casualties caused by the intensification of artillery shelling by Russian militants and continuation of armament supply from Russia." (1492News : Wednesday, July 27 2016) (my emphasis)

In line with the discussion that Merkel had with President Obama, Merkel and Poroshenko also,

"... discussed the elaboration of the clear roadmap of the Minsk agreements implementation, which should include the fulfillment of the security component by Russia." (ibid 1492News) (my emphasis)

The change of US and Russian ambassadors in Kiev, an escalation of the war between Russia and Ukraine in the Donbas, and those calls between Merkel and President Obama and Merkel and Poroshenko, all seem to indicate that a sea-change is taking place.

This sea-change is coming just prior to the September Duma elections in Russia, as well as the November presidential elections in the US.

No doubt Putin already has a 'blueprint' of what the Duma election results should be.

As we already know, to protect himself from any backlash against his 'blueprint' results of the Duma elections, Putin has readied his Praetorian Guard, whose duty it will be to ruthlessly deal with any popular Russian sentiment against his Duma results spreading onto the streets of Moscow, or anywhere else in Russia.  

Now, more than ever, Putin is praying for a Trump victory in the US Presidential race in November. 

Unlike his "blueprinted" Duma elections, all that he can do is to surreptitiously aid Trump in his battle with Hilary Clinton.

Maybe, just maybe, Trump inadvertently spilled the beans about Putin helping him in his presidential race when he called upon Putin to,

"..... if you’re listening, I hope you’re able to find the 30,000 emails that are missing,” Mr. Trump said during a news conference here in an apparent reference to Mrs. Clinton’s deleted emails. “I think you will probably be rewarded mightily by our press.” (Ashley Parker and David Sanger : Washington Post : July 27, 2016) (my emphasis)

(to be continued)

Putin staring into the abyss ....

UAwire reported on Saturday that,

"In a letter to the President of the United Nations Security Council, Koro Bessho, Russia’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Vitaly Churkin (left), addressed the UN, demanding that they “influence Kiev to prevent the disastrous development of events,” referring to the situation in Ukraine." (UAwire : Saturday, July 23, 2016) (my emphasis)

And on Sunday, Amy La Porte (right) reported that,

"A slow simmer of conflict between pro-Russian rebels and Ukrainian forces has mushroomed into a deadly 24 hours in Ukraine's war-torn east.

Six Ukrainian soldiers have been killed during fierce fighting with separatist rebels over the past day, according to a spokesperson from Ukraine's military operation." (CNN : July 24, 2016) (my emphasis) (cf. also: OSCE reports)

Vitali Churkin's Saturday demand at the UN, and this sudden and rapid escalation of Putin's Russian soldiers and  rebel proxies attacking Ukrainian forces on the following day, cannot be mere co-incidence.

Neither can it be a co-incidence, as reported by Jill Dougherty (left), that,

"... At the office I ask a Russian employee about the mood in his working-class Moscow neighborhood. The old people are buying salt, matches and “gretchka,” (buckwheat) he tells me - the time-worn refuge for Russians stocking up on essentials in case of war. In the past two months, I’ve traveled to the Baltic region, to Georgia, and to Russia. Talk of war is everywhere." (Wilson Centre : Jul 18, 2016) (my emphasis)

Nor can it be a co-incidence, as reported by Jamie Seidel, that,

"Putin has taken a page out of Joseph Stalin’s book — and sacked every commander in his Baltic fleet.

As many as 50 senior officers including a Vice Admiral have been purged by Vladimir Putin amid reports they refused to confront Western ships." (The Sun : 12th July 2016) (my emphasis)

 

These developments indicate, as Gen. Sir Richard Shirreff and Maciej Olex-Szczytowski argue,

"[Putin's] strategic  aim  is  to  restore [Russia's] status as a great power, allowing it to dominate what it sees as its sphere of privileged interest. Military strength and a willingness to use force is instrumental to the achievement of this ambition. Furthermore, military adventures  abroad  also  serve to deflect attention from Russia’s ongoing economic meltdown and the regime’s  growing  repressiveness,  and to raise its domestic popularity." (Atlantic Council : July 19, 2016) (my emphasis)

As Jill Dougherty also writes,

"The Kremlin is frightened about its grip on the political situation at home - and the geopolitical situation abroad. Russia is trying to deter the West in a very aggressive way because it realizes it is weaker - economically, militarily, and in terms of soft power." (ibid Wilson Centre) (my emphasis)

Let us also remind ourselves that Putin has now surrounded himself with a Praetorian Guard of more than 400,000 men.

As reported by Tom Balmforth,

"The Kremlin has cast its new National Guard force as a timely move to combat terrorism and organized crime, but wary observers liken the agency to a "Praetorian Guard on steroids" to protect President Vladimir Putin and his hold on power, particularly as elections loom." (RFERL : Monday, July 25, 2016) (my emphasis)

Which brings us back to that chilling demand of Vitaly Churkin that the UN should,

“influence Kiev to prevent the disastrous development of events..”

Let us remind ourselves that in April 2015, John Hall reported that,

"Vladimir Putin is planning to exploit the threat of nuclear war to force Nato out of countries bordering Russia, it has been claimed.

A secret meeting between intelligence figures in Moscow and Washington reportedly revealed Putin will consider any attempt to return the Crimean peninsula to Ukraine as declaration of war and will take any necessary step - including using nuclear weapons - to retain control of the region." (Mail Online : 2 April 2015) (my emphasis)

Foreward to July 2016 and Patrick Christys reports that,

"Russian defence minister Sergey Shoigu (right) said NATO forces on Russia’s doorstep had “more than doubled” in recent weeks.

He said: “Such moves of our Western colleagues lead to erosion of the strategic stability in Europe and force us to take counter measures, primarily in the Western theatre of operations.”

He warned Russia would take action to “neutralise potential threats”. (Express : Fri, Jul 1, 2016) (my emphasis)

Is the dangerous escalation of the war between Putin's Russian soldiers, together with his rebel proxies, and the Ukrainian forces in the Donbas, the firing of his first warning shots against NATO forces?

Is this really what Vitaly Churkin was referring to?

(to be continued)

Putin and Trump .... Joined at the hip?

In my blog entry of Wednesday, 25 May 2016 I wrote that,

"It is therefore no wonder that Putin's most fervent and wishful hope of a Trump success in the US presidential elections also stems from the fact that Trump's current main political advisor, Paul Manafort, was also political advisor to none other than Victor Yanukovich  himself, as revealed by Prof. Timothy Snyder. (left to right: Manafort, Trump, Yanukovich)

Furthermore,

"As Timothy Snyder points out,

"... Trump has indicated, in his selection last month of Carter Page (right) as a foreign policy adviser, that American policy to Europe will be guided by Russian interests. 

Page, heretofore known as an adviser to Russia’s state gas company, has been among the prominent Americans spreading Russian propaganda about Ukraine’s revolution in 2014 and the Russian invasion that followed. In his writings he has questioned Ukraine’s status as an independent state, which is precisely the line that Moscow took to justify its invasion. (New York Review : April 19, 2016) (my emphasis)

And at last week’s Republican National Security Committee platform meeting in Cleveland, Josh Rogin (left) reports that,

"The Trump campaign worked behind the scenes last week to make sure the new Republican platform won’t call for giving weapons to Ukraine to fight Russian and rebel forces, contradicting the view of almost all Republican foreign policy leaders in Washington." (Washington Post : July 18, 2016) (my emphasis)

He further reports that,

"Trump’s view of Russia has always been friendlier than most Republicans. He’s said he would “get along very well” with Vladimir Putin and called it a “great honor” when Putin praised him. Trump has done a lot of business in Russia and has been traveling there since 1987. Last August, he said of Ukraine joining NATO, “I wouldn’t care.” He traveled there in September, and he told Ukrainians their war is “really a problem that affects Europe a lot more than it affects us.” (ibid Josh Rogan) (my emphasis)

"Since the 1980s, Trump and his family members have made numerous trips to Moscow in search of business opportunities, and they have relied on Russian investors to buy their properties around the world."  (Niraj Chokshi : Washington Post : December 17, 2015) (my emphasis)

Diana Denman (right), a platform committee member from Texas, had proposed at the Republican National Security Committee platform meeting in Cleveland,

".... a platform amendment that would call for maintaining or increasing sanctions against Russia, increasing aid for Ukraine and “providing lethal defensive weapons” to the Ukrainian military.

“Today, the post-Cold War ideal of a ‘Europe whole and free’ is being severely tested by Russia’s ongoing military aggression in Ukraine,” the amendment read. “The Ukrainian people deserve our admiration and support in their struggle.” (ibid Josh Rogan) ( my emphasis)

Is Trump's dramatic change in the Republican position on Ukraine a payback to Putin?

This foreign policy development within the Trump camp comes close on the heels of Putin's Russia who will,

"... deploy its most advanced S-400 air defence systems to the annexed Crimea peninsula in August, a military official said Friday.
...
"In August 2016 the (S-400) systems are expected to be unloaded in Feodosia where they will be permanently located," Yevgeny Oleinikov, deputy commander of the Russian army's 18th surface-to-air missile regiment, told RIA Novosti state news agency, referring to an eastern Crimean town." (NDTV (AFP) : July 15, 2016) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, that,

"On July 16-17, the jack-up-rig 'Sivash' was towed off the port Chornomorske (the temporarily occupied territory of Crimea) to the Holitsyno gas field, which is located in Ukraine's exclusive (maritime) economic zone.

Ukraine's State Border Service reported, it is the jack-up-rig (belonging to Ukrane's company Chornomornaftogaz) that was illegally seized by Russia during its annexation of Crimea in 2014.

"This is related to Russia's illegal offshore drilling operations in Ukraine, which grossly violates the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea and Ukraine's Law "On the exclusive (maritime) economic zone of Ukraine", said the statement. (UT : Jul. 17, 2016) (my emphasis)

These are the criminal actions of Putin in Ukrainian Crimea that Paul Manafort and Carter Page, Trump's Foreign Policy advisors, together with Trump himself, seem to be fully at home with.

As Trump himself has said,

" ... he would “get along very well” with Vladimir Putin and called it a “great honor” when Putin praised him." (ibid Josh Rogan)


No doubt they have also turned a blind eye to the breaking news that,

"Calls are growing for Russia to be banned from the 2016 Rio Olympics after a damning report found state-sponsored involvement in a widespread doping program that began in 2011." (ABC Aus (AFP, Reuters) : 19 July, 2016) (my emphasis)

(to be continued)

Putin diplomatically duping Obama, Kerry, Merkel, and Hollande. Will they fall for it?

Since the Brexit result on the 23 June, Putin has had a flurry of calls to President Obama, Angela Merkel, and Franscoise Hollande.

The first of these calls was on the 6th July, when Putin,

"... discussed Syria, Ukraine and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with U.S. President Barack Obama" (ABC News (AP) : Jul 6, 2016)

Putin argued with President Obama that,

"[the Ukrainian] government needs to follow the 2015 Minsk peace deal by launching a dialogue with rebels, granting a special status to rebel regions and preparing local elections there." (ABC News (The Associated Press MOSCOW): Jul 6, 2016)

Then on July 7th we have US Vice-President John Kerry and Victoria Nuland rushing to Kiev to pressure Poroshenko, and urging him to,

"... [comply] with Ukraine’s political “obligations” under the Minsk “agreement.” (Vladimir Socor : Jamestown Foundation :July 8, 2016) (my emphasis)

As Vladimir Socor explains,

""Ukraine [is being pressured to] make pre-emptive, irreversible sacrifices of sovereignty, without any assurance that Russian forces would withdraw or that the two armed “people’s republics” would abdicate. Almost certainly they would not. The West may help Russia enforce those political provisions on Ukraine, but the same Western powers cannot help Ukraine enforce those military provisions on Russia." (ibid Vladimir Socor) (my emphasis)

Rather disconcertingly, Socor also writes that,

"Kerry and Nuland’s joint visit on July 7, however, has added urgency and even impatience to Kerry’s tone, reflecting the Barack Obama administration’s rush to show results before the November presidential election in the United States." (ibid Vladismir Socor) (my emphasis

Then, hot on the heels of the Kerry and Nuland visit to Kiev, on the 13th July Putin had a rather cosy Skype tête-à-tête with Angela Merkel and Francoise Hollande, MINUS Petro Poroshenko, President of Ukraine.

During this cosy threesome Skype tête-à-tête, Putin,

"... asked German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande to use their influence to help prevent any escalation of the conflict in eastern Ukraine, the Kremlin said in a statement." (Polina Devitt : Yahoo (Reuters) : 13 July 2016)

Central to Putin's call for Merkel and Hollande to 'influence Poroshenko' was the same argument that he used with President Obama viz. that Poroshenko should "launch a dialogue with rebels, granting a special status to rebel regions and preparing local elections there".

This diplomatic flurry between the 6th and 13th of July between Putin and President Obama, Putin and John Kerry and Victoria Nuland, and Putin and Merkel and Hollande, raises the critical question whether Ukraine is being sold down the river simply because,

• President Barack Obama has less than three months in office as the President of the United States and is now focussed on his legacy, and because
• Brexit has thrown the EU into a state of turmoil. In the words of Hollande, "The British vote poses a grave test for Europe, which must show solidity and strength in its response to the economic and financial risks," Hollande said. (The Local (AFP) :  24 Jun 2016) (my emphasis)

And if it were not enough that Poroshenko now has to contend with the pressure being put on him by this diplomatic flurry, Boris Johnson (left) has become the newly appointed Foreign Secretary of the UK who, on May 9th of this year, proclaimed that,

  

"... during questions and answers after a speech on Europe, it transpired that for Johnson it was not Russia's invasion and annexation of Crimea and its military aggression in Eastern Ukraine that had caused "real trouble", but the EU's actions.

 "If you want an example of EU foreign policymaking on the hoof and the EU's pretensions to running a defence policy that have caused real trouble, then look at what has happened in Ukraine, " he told reporters." (UT : Jul. 14, 2016) (my emphasis)
The delight of Putin at Boris Johnson becoming the UK foreign Secretary is best illustrated by,

"The head of the Russian State Duma's foreign affairs committee, Aleksey Pushkov (right), [tweeting] that Mr Johnson's predecessor, Philip Hammond, has "painful anti-Russian complexes" that he hopes Mr Johnson does not share." (BBC News : 14 July, 2016)

Also recall that,

"Boris Johnson has praised Vladimir Putin's "ruthless clarity" in backing President Assad to remove "maniac" Isis jihadists from Palmyra." (Joe Churcher: The Independent :Monday 28 March 2016) (cf also Blog Entry : Friday, 24 June 2016)

Even more disconcertingly, Boris Johnson stated in 2015 that,

"This is the time to set aside our Cold War mindset. It is just not true that whatever is good for Putin must automatically be bad for the West." (Daily Telegraph :  06 Dec 2015)

Before the UK referendum on the 23rd June,

"Pavel Polityuk wrote about the concerns of Kiev should Britain vote to leave the EU.

"Politicians in Kiev worry that a vote by Britain to leave the European Union would weaken the EU's support for Ukraine and undermine its resolve to stand up to Russia.
.....
Britain has pushed for the EU to renew sanctions on Russia imposed after the Crimea annexation, but other EU countries want them lifted, so if the country leaves the bloc, that could soften the EU stance, Ukrainian politicians say.
 
"Brexit will seriously compromise the unity of the EU on the issue of sanctions," [Serhiy] Leshchenko (right) said. "The EU will lose one of the main lobbyists for sanctions against Russia." (Reuters : Fri Jun 17, 2016) (my emphasis)

These concerns of Serhiy Leshchenko are further amplified by the fact that Putinversteher Walter Steinmeir, and Italian PM Matteo Renzi, have recently increased the call for sanctions against Putin's Russia to be, if not completely rescinded, then alleviated. (Blog Entry : Friday, 24 June 2016) 

Poroshenko is thus been squeezed on both the diplomatic and the EU sanctions front.

The only relief that Poroshenko is receiving from these pressures now being exterted upon him is coming from Canada.

“Canada will always stand by Ukraine,” [Canadian Prime Minister] Trudeau told Ukrainian President Pyotr Poroshenko after the two leaders signed a free-trade agreement in an opulent, Soviet-era hall in the presidential palace.
...
Trudeau complimented the Ukrainian government for “extremely important and difficult steps” it had made in meeting its obligations under last year’s Minsk II peace agreement before condemning Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its failure to abide by the Minsk accord, which was meant to bring peace to Ukraine’s Donbass region." (Edmonton Journal : July 12, 2016) (my emphasis)
 
Prime Minister Trudeau seems the only one to recognise, as Poroshenko stated on July 11th, that,

"..Kiev has fully implemented the Minsk agreements, the RBC news agency reported.

The Ukrainian side has fulfilled 95 percent of the political obligations and 100 percent of the security requirements in the agreements, Poroshenko was quoted as saying by Interfax Ukraine during a news conference which followed his talks with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau." (Maria Evdokimova : Moscow Times : Jul. 11 2016) (my emphasis)

 Which really begs the question,

"Why is President Obama, Vice-President John Kerry, Victoria Nuland, Chancellor Angela Merkel, and President Franscoise Hollande, suddenly batting for Putin against Poroshenko?"

(to be continued)

Putin's war with Ukraine, and the 2016 NATO summit in Warsaw.

On Saturday, 7th May, I wrote that,

"Putin,  thanks to his invasion and annexation of Ukrainian Crimea, and his war with Ukraine in the Donbas, has woken the sleeping giant of NATO, against which he is now railing." (Blog :Saturday, 7 May 2016)

 This is best illustrated at the current EU-NATO Signing Ceremony in Warsaw (08 JUL 2016), between the the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, the President of the European Commission, Jean Claude Junker, and the Secretary General of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Jens Stoltenberg.

It is further illustrated by the Introductory remarks of NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, who, towards the end of his opening speech at the NATO Summit in Warsaw (July 7-9, 2016), specifically singled out the war between Putin's Russia and Ukraine as a prime example of the 'hybrid' warfare that NATO now has to defend itself against.

Added to which, as reported by Putin's global propaganda TV network, RT,

"British instructors will complete the training of 4,000 Ukrainian military personnel by March 2017, UK Secretary of State for Foreign & Commonwealth Affairs Philip Hammond (left) told journalists on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Warsaw.

"We have a very active cooperation with Ukraine. The UK will train 4,000 Ukrainian servicemen until March 2017," Hammond said.
...
"This underlines the commitment of the UK to the issue of sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of Ukraine and our other Eastern European partners. This is another clear sign thet we strongly support Ukraine in times of aggression," he said at that time, as quoted by the Ukrainian news agency Ukrinform." (RT : 8 July, 2016) (my emphasis).

As also reported by Brian Bonner (right),

" ... Russia's war against Ukraine - in its third year - and its illegal military invasion and annexation of the Crimean peninsula - are driving the political-military alliance's priorities ...( KyivPost : Jul. 9, 2016) (my emphasis)

We therefore have to ask ourselves why, a day before this NATO Summit in Warsaw, Putin suddenly decides to call US President Obama, ostensibly to discuss the conflicts in Ukraine, Syria, and Nagorno Karabakh.

Whilst President Obama emphasised that the Minsk2 protocols have to be FULLY implemented Putin, on the other hand, trotted out his usual demand that,

"Regarding Ukraine, Putin argued that [the Ukrainian] government needs to follow the 2015 Minsk peace deal by launching a dialogue with rebels, granting a special status to rebel regions and preparing local elections there." (ABC News (The Associated Press MOSCOW): Jul 6, 2016)

Yet NOWHERE in the Minsk2 protocols does it specify that Ukrainian President Poroshenko should first launch a dialogue with Putin's rebel proxies in the Donbas BEFORE the withdrawal of Putin's near 10,000 Russian soldiers, removal of all Russian military armaments from the Donbas, the restoring of Ukrainian control over the border between Russia and Ukraine, and effective OSCE monitoring of the pullout of Putin's soldiers.  (Wikipedia)

As reported in an interview of Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, Deputy PM of Ukraine, by CNBC, the border situation is escalating, with an increase in deaths of Ukrainian soldiers, thanks to Putin continuing to supply his Russian soldiers and rebel proxies in the Donbas with lethal armaments.

There could, however, be another reason for Putin's sudden call to Obama. And it may have to do with the fact that,

"In an effort to reassure Georgia and Ukraine the United States is committed to their security, America's top diplomat is visiting the European nations as Russia continues to assert itself in the region.

...

Kerry will discuss security matters with Ukrainian officials in Kyiv before joining U.S. President Barack Obama in Poland Friday for a summit of NATO leaders." (VoA : July 06, 2016) (my emphasis) (cf. also: Reuters : 7 July, 2016)

The fact that NATO's eye has not been taken off the Ukrainian war with Putin's Russia has led to the usual diatribe against NATO emanating from Putin's mouthpiece, Dmitry Peskov (left).

"The Kremlin has hit back at a decision by NATO to station several thousand troops in Baltic countries and Eastern Europe, amid rising tensions between Europe and Russia, as "anti-Russian hysteria."

...

"If one needs badly to look for an enemy image so that [one can] promote anti-Russian, so to say, hysteria, and then, with this emotional background, to deploy more and more air force units, ground troop units, getting them closer to Russian borders, then one can hardly find any common ground for cooperation," he was quoted by Russia's Itar Tass news agency as saying. " (Holly Ellyatt : CNBC : 8 July, 2016) (my emphasis)

Peskov's blind spot about the deaths that Putin and his Russian soldiers and rebel proxies have caused in Ukraine signifies the contempt with which Putin and his Kremlin siloviki regard such tragedies. 

Let us also recall the contempt of Putin for Russian citizens when his FSB orchestrated the Moscow apartment bombings in 1999 that led to to the deaths of 293 Russian citizens. (Wikipedia)

Putin should now not complain if the NATO giant that he has awoken because of his invasion of, and annexation of, Crimea, and his continued military support for his rebel proxies and Russian soldiers in the Donbas, is now beginning to stir.

(to be continued)

Is Walter Steinmeier Putin's "Manchurian Candidate" against the EU sanctions?

Is it a co-incidence that, shortly before the Brexit result, it is announced by Walter Steinmeier that,

"We in Europe bear a joint responsibility for ensuring that we do not fall back into a nationalism of single states," Steinmeier said. (Michael Nienaber : Reuters : Sun Jun 19, 2016) (my emphasis)

Then, shortly after the Brexit result, Nick Gutteridge reports that,

"EUROPEAN political chiefs are to take advantage of Brexit by unveiling their long-held plan to morph the continent’s countries into one GIANT SUPERSTATE, it has emerged.

....
The foreign ministers of France and Germany are due to reveal a blueprint to effectively do away with individual member states in what is being described as an “ultimatum”.
 

Under the radical proposals EU countries will lose the right to have their own army, criminal law, taxation system or central bank, with all those powers being transferred to Brussels." (Expess :Tue, Jun 28, 2016) (my emphasis)

 

As also reported by Alex Christoforou (left),

"The public broadcaster reports that the bombshell proposal will be presented to a meeting of the Visegrad group of countries – made up of Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia – by German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier later today." (The Duran : 29 June, 2016) (my emphasis)

Let us cast our minds back a few weeks, and recall that,

 

"I hope that by the end of June there will be progress and then we can see if we can reduce the [EU]sanctions [against Russia] step by step, or if we stay with the measures we have right now," Steinmeier told reporters on a visit to Tallinn on May 27." (Turkish Weekly : June 19, 2016) (my emphasis)

 

Also bear in mind that,

 

"Walter Steinmeier was, under former Chancellor of Germany Gerhard Schröder, responsible for co-ordinating Germany's intelligence services, (Wikipedia), (right: Steinmeier and Schröder) the very same Gerhard Schröder who now works for Putin's Gazprom , and who also,

".. embarrassed the government of his successor Angela Merkel by staunchly defending the Kremlin’s actions in the Ukraine and claiming that Russia wanted to stay “big and strong” and an equal to the United States." (Tony Paterson : The Telegraph : 14 Mar 2014) (my emphasis) (left: Schröder and Putin in 2014)

 

In the light of, "EUROPEAN political chiefs [taking] advantage of Brexit by unveiling their long-held plan to morph the continent’s countries into one GIANT SUPERSTATE", the question that arises is,

 

"How long will the EU sanctions against Russia last, even though they have been renewed for another 6 months, as reported by RFE/RL"?

"The European Union has officially decided to extend its economic sanctions against Russia to January 31, 2017. " (RFE/RL : Sunday, July 03, 2016) 

 

Surely Steinmeier, as Foreign Secretary of the country now dominating the EU viz. Germany, will ensure that his "step-by-step reduction" of sanctions against Putin's Russia will soon be implemented, notwithstanding the 6 month renewal thereof decided upon on July 1st.

 

As a possible indicator of this happening in the not-too-distant future lies in the fact that Russia and Turkey have renewed their friendly relationship after the Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, apologised for the downing of the Russian plane.

 

As reported by the BBC,

 

"A spokesman for Mr Erdogan said on Wednesday that "necessary steps" would now be taken to mend the damaged ties between the two countries, and to drop restrictive measures on Russians visiting Turkey." (BBC News : 29 June 2016) (my emphasis)

 

 

This rapprochement comes shortly on the heels of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan,

 

"Angrily lashing out at the bloc's treatment of Ankara, Erdogan said Turkey could hold a referendum along the lines of the plebescite in Britain, where voters are deciding Thursday whether to stay in the European Union or leave.

 

"We can stand up and ask the people just like the British are doing," Erdogan said late Wednesday at a speech in Istanbul, quoted by the state-run Anadolu news agency.

 

"We would ask 'Do we continue the negotiations with the European Union or do we end it?' If the people say 'continue', then we would carry on," Erdogan said. 

...

"You are not keeping your promise. This is your (Europe's) ugly face. When Erdogan exposes your ugly face, you go crazy," he said.(Stuart Williams: AFP (Yahoo News) : June 23, 2016) (my emphasis)

Such a referendum in Turkey would remove the bargaining chip of EU membership and visa-free travel that the EU now holds in relations with Turkey, especially in light of the refugee crisis that the EU is now experiencing.

This new attitude of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan towards the EU, and his rapprochement with Putin, adds ammunition to the call of Walter Steinmeier that, "we can see if we can reduce the [EU]sanctions [against Russia] step by step".

(to be continued)

Brexit is a phyrric victory for Putin.

As the Brexit referendum results continue to reverberate around the world, UNIAN reports that,

"Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop (left) said Australia was concerned that a weakened EU would not have any impact on how the Middle East and Ukraine situations are being handled, according to News.com.au." (UNIAN : 26 June 2016) (my emphasis)

At the same time, as reported by Laurence Norman and Zeke Turner,
 
"German Chancellor Angela Merkel confirmed Tuesday night that the European Union would extend economic sanctions against Russia.
...
 Citing an agreed cease-fire in Ukraine that has never gotten off the ground, Ms. Merkel said that she and French President Francois Hollande made clear to EU leaders in Brussels "that the extension of the sanctions...is sadly necessary," (Wall Street Journal : June 28, 2016) (my emphasis)

Whilst Poroshenko must be sighing with relief that sanctions against Putin's Russia will continue for another 6 months, nonetheless "the knives are out for Merkel".

As reported by Ben Nimmo (left),

"The U.K. has consistently been one of the Kremlin's most vocal critics and a vital ally for Merkel in her efforts to maintain the EU's wavering unity on sanctions against Russia.

In the short term, last Thursday's vote [in Britain] does not change that, since the U.K. will remain a member until its departure negotiations are concluded over the next two years.

However, in the long term its decision to quit robs Merkel of her largest supporter, rendering her more vulnerable toward Russia." (Newsweek : 28/6/2016) (my emphasis)

And whilst Merkel is rather sad that the EU sanctions against Putin's Russia have to be renewed,

"Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte (right) asked European Union leaders on Tuesday for "legally binding" assurances to address his country's concerns over a trade and association deal with Ukraine and said 

The Hague would block it otherwise." (Gabriela Baczynska and Robert-Jan Bartunek : Reuters : Tue Jun 28, 2016) (my emphasis) 

Let us for a moment cast our minds back to 6 April 2016, when the Dutch held a referendum on "the approval of the Association Agreement between the European Union and Ukraine" by the Dutch government.

As reported by Reuters,

"Dutch voters have overwhelmingly rejected a Ukraine-European Union treaty on closer political and economic ties, in a rebuke to their government and to the EU establishment.

The broad political, trade and defence treaty – which had already been signed by the Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte’s government and approved by all other EU nations, and Ukraine – provisionally took effect in January." (The Guardian : Thursday 7 April 2016) (my emphasis)

Yet less that two weeks after the results of the Dutch referendum, Dutch M.P.'s,

" .... voted not to ditch the EU-Ukraine association agreement Tuesday, despite a referendum earlier this month at which more than 60 percent of voters opposed the deal.
...
On Tuesday, Dutch opposition MPs wanted to overturn an earlier parliamentary vote to back the association agreement, but were outvoted 75-71." (Meg Hilling (left) and Hanne Cokelaere : Politico : 19/4/2016) (my emphasis) 

Has the sudden panic about Brexit forced Dutch Prime Minister, Mark Rutte, to now threaten that unless the EU takes into account the result of the April 6 Dutch referendum, his government would block the Association Agreement between the EU and Ukraine AFTER his government simply over-ruled this referendum result by voting NOT to ditch the EU-Ukraine association agreement?

And whilst Mark Rutte suddenly does this political U-turn, Pierre Vaux informs us that,

"The Ukrainian military reports a dramatic escalation in fighting yesterday, claiming 71 attacks were conducted by Russian-backed forces in the Donbass. For comparison, the highest daily figures in recent days have been around 50, with 36 reported over Sunday." (The Interpreter : 28 June, 2016) 

At the same time,

"Nearly 2,000 troops from the United States and allies launched a massive military exercise in Ukraine Monday, the latest in a series of war games that NATO officials say would simulate counterattacks against "Russian aggression." (Fox News : June 27, 2016) (my emphasis)

And behind the scenes,

"Last week, Ukrainian Vice-Prime Minister on European Integration Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze said that the next meeting of the Normandy Four countries, comprising Russia, Germany, Ukraine and France, is likely to happen after the July 8-9 NATO summit in Warsaw" (Sputnik International : 29 June, 2016)

has now proven to be 'wishful thinking'.

 
As also reported by Sputnik International,

"A new Normandy Four leaders meeting to discuss the Ukrainian peace settlement is not expected to be held in the near future, a source in the Kremlin told RIA Novosti."

Could this be due to the fact that the US wished to be included in these talks?

"The United States could join Russia, France, Germany and Ukraine at the next high-level meeting, the spokesman told reporters following the French Cabinet session." (Sputnik International : 22.06.2016) (my emphasis)

What the the fallout of Brexit and the scrapping of a Normany Four talks to include the US seem to indicate is that Putin and his Kremlin siloviki have been caught off guard.

They simply do not know just how to handle the political tsunami in the EU that has been caused by Brexit.

Putin may be viewed as a Brexit winner, as argued by Ben Nimmo. 

Brexit has, however, thrown uncertainty into the economic recovery of the Eurozone, a Eurozone that includes Putin's biggest EU customers of Germany, France, and Italy,

whilst Britain does a significantly small amount of trade with Russia.

For another 6 months, as sad as it may seem for Angela Merkel, (cf above), Putin will not be able to easily extricate Russia from the turmoil of the economic recession that is affecting every single Russian family.

(to be continued)

26 June 2016

Read more on UNIAN: http://www.unian.info/politics/1387737-australian-fm-brexit-could-weaken-eus-impact-on-situation-in-ukraine.html

Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop said Australia was concerned that a weakened EU would not have any impact on how the Middle East and Ukraine situations are being handled, according to News.com.au.

Read more on UNIAN: http://www.unian.info/politics/1387737-australian-fm-brexit-could-weaken-eus-impact-on-situation-in-ukraine.html

Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop said Australia was concerned that a weakened EU would not have any impact on how the Middle East and Ukraine situations are being handled, according to News.com.au.

Read more on UNIAN: http://www.unian.info/politics/1387737-australian-fm-brexit-could-weaken-eus-impact-on-situation-in-ukraine.html

Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop said Australia was concerned that a weakened EU would not have any impact on how the Middle East and Ukraine situations are being handled, according to News.com.au.

Read more on UNIAN: http://www.unian.info/politics/1387737-australian-fm-brexit-could-weaken-eus-impact-on-situation-in-ukraine.html