Is Putin's fracturing 'siloviki' willing to continue supporting him?

It was as inevitable as the sun rises in the East and sets in the West that the proliferation of 'armchair' military pundits in this internet age would be told to "shut up or put up" regarding Ukraine's counter-offensive against Putin's invading army on Ukrainian soil.

As reported by Steve Cannane and Riley Stuart,

"When Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba (left) last week told critics of his country's counteroffensive to "shut up", accusing them of "spitting in the faces" of frontline soldiers, it was obvious who his fury was directed at.
...
During a visit to Spain last week, Mr Kuleba dared those unnamed critics to "come to Ukraine and try to liberate one square centimetre by themselves". (ABC News (AU) : 3 September 2023) (my emphasis)

Dmytro Kuleba's pointed remark that these 'amrchair military pundits', amongst whom can be counted many 'retired' generals, are "spitting in the faces" of Ukraine's frontline forces, comes against the backdrop of the critical advances that Ukraine's army is making as they head towards severing Putin's supply lines from feeding his shambolic army.

DW News : 3 September 2023 : YouTube

 

Dylan Donnelly : Express : 2 September 2023

As reported by Tom Watling (left),

"Ukrainian forces have breached a second Russian defensive position in almost as many weeks as part of one of their two main parts of the counter attack, geolocated footage has shown.

Ukrainian soldiers were spotted in the northern areas of Zavitne Bazhannya earlier this week but conclusive, geolocated footage appeared on Saturday (September 2).

The village is the next vertebrae along a spinal attack from Velyka Novosilka in the north down to Berdyansk on the Sea of Azov; the aim is to reach the coast and split the Russian land bridge from Crimea to far eastern Ukraine, isolating around 100,000 of Vladimir Putin’s troops." (Express : 2 September 2023) (my emphasis)

Underscoring Ukraine's critical counter-offensive advances, James Callery informs us that,

"Vladimir Putin is scrambling to draft mercenaries from Armenia and Kazakhstan to plug the gaps in troop numbers fighting in Ukraine.

Mail Online : 4 September 2023

Moscow has suffered heavy troop losses since the war in Ukraine began 18 months ago and the total number of Russian and Ukrainian troops killed or wounded is nearing 500,000, US officials said.
...
The [UK] MoD said Uzbek migrant builders in Mariupol have reportedly had their passports confiscated upon arrival and been coerced to join the Russian military." (Mail Online : 4 September 2023) (my emphasis) 

It is not only on the war front that Putin is failing, nor his frantic desperation to recruit more soldiers to replace those currently been lost in Ukraine, but also his desperation on the economic front that his war in Ukraine is having on the waning strength of the ruble.

As reported by the Washington Post (Analysis by Bloomberg News),

"The ruble has slumped so severely this year that Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a rare verbal intervention, telling the central bank and government to work together to halt outflows and ease volatility in financial markets. The currency, among the worst performers in emerging markets in 2023, has suffered from a deterioration in foreign trade amid a raft of international sanctions over its war in Ukraine. The plunge threatens to exacerbate inflation, eating into living standards ahead of what’s meant to be a showcase presidential election, and has already revived discussions about whether to reimpose some capital controls." (Washington Post : 1 September 2023) (my emphasis)

DW News : 21 August 2023 : YouTube

For how much longer Putin can keep aloft the increasing weight of his mounting  failures depends now on whether his fracturing 'siloviki' are willing to continue to support him.  

UPDATE 1 : 5 September 2023 

Mark Galleoti has just reported that,

"Yesterday morning, I received a revealing text message from an American general. ‘I think I spoke too soon and was too downbeat,’ he wrote.

He was referring to a conversation we’d had a fortnight ago, in which he gloomily told me there was little chance of a meaningful advance by Ukrainian troops against their Russian invaders before next spring.

[ ]....following three months of fierce fighting and weeks of painstaking mine clearance, Ukrainian forces have decisively breached Russia’s first defensive line near Zaporizhzhia in the south-east of the country.

This is not only a major military breakthrough that could, in time, split Russia’s occupied territory in two. It is also a sharp rebuttal to recent anonymous grumbles from some quarters of the international military and political community about Ukrainian fighting tactics being less than efficient." (Mail Online : 5 September 2023) (my emphasis)

Mail Online : 5 September 2023

UPDATE 2 : 5 September 2023

And as the Ukrainian army continues to prove all those western 'armchair' generals wrong, Aljazeera reports that,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin has reiterated his stance on reinstating a United Nations-brokered deal to safely ship Ukrainian grain across the Black Sea only after the West meets Moscow’s demands on its agricultural exports.

The Russian president’s remarks on Monday came after a meeting with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the Black Sea city of Sochi in the hope of reviving the agreement seen as vital for global food supplies, especially in Africa, the Middle East and Asia." (Aljazeera : 4 September 2023) (my emphasis)

No doubt Putin's political rebuff of Turkey's President Erdogan regarding a resumption of supplying Africa, the Middle East, and Asia, with much needed grain will not 'politically' sit well with those countries seriously affected by Putin's blockade of Ukraine's critical grain supplies to the world.

Aljazeera : 4 September 2023

UPDATE 3 : 5 September 2023

Following on from the report of James Callery that, "Vladimir Putin is scrambling to draft mercenaries from Armenia and Kazakhstan to plug the gaps in troop numbers fighting in Ukraine.", Alarabiya News now informs us that,

"Cuba has identified an alleged human trafficking ring aimed at recruiting its citizens to fight in Russia’s war in Ukraine, the foreign ministry said Monday.

The government was working to dismantle a “trafficking network that operates from Russia to incorporate Cuban citizens living there, and even some from Cuba, into the military forces involved in military operations in Ukraine”, the ministry said in a statement.

The Cuban government had initiated criminal proceedings against those carrying out the trafficking, it added." (Alarabiya News : 5 September 2023) (my emphasis) 

This serves to further underscore Putin's desperation as the Ukrainian army continues its inexorable advance towards the Sea of Azov.

 

 

 

(to be continued)

Will Putin now press the red nuclear button to save himself?

 In my last blog entry (27 Aug 2023) I wrote that,

"Not only does Putin now have to reinforce protecting his back against 'revenge seeking' Wagner soldiers, but he also now has to contend with Ukrainian soldiers penetrating into Ukraine's Crimea and breaking through his strongest line of defence on Ukrainian soil.

Putin's fear of defeat in Ukraine is about to overwhelm him." (blog entry : 27 Aug 2023)

Euronews now reports that,

"Ukraine sent waves of drones deep into western Russia in more than four hours of nighttime attacks that struck military assets, Russian officials and media reports said Wednesday." (Yahoo News (Euronews article) : 31 August 2023) (my emphasis)

Euronews : 31 August 2023

As also reported by CNN staff,

"Six Russian regions, including Moscow, came under attack early Wednesday in the biggest drone assault on its territory since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began last February. Russian officials haven’t reported any casualties and claimed to have thwarted almost all of the strikes.

 A Kremlin spokesman has attributed the assault to the “continued terrorist activity of the Kyiv regime.”

 Mykhailo Podolyak (left), adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, said the attacks are an indication the "war is increasingly moving to Russia’s territory." But he stopped short of claiming responsibility." (CNN : 31 August 2023) (my emphasis)

 CNN : 31 August 2023

Putin's fear is now, indeed, overwhelming him.

As reported by Paul Withers (left),

"A Russian warmonger general has chillingly called on Vladimir Putin to use the "perfect" opportunity to fire nuclear weapons on Ukraine.

Andrey Gurulev (right), a pro-Kremlin MP and former general, suggested the president use the nukes to retaliate in response to a wave of Ukrainian drone strikes inside Russia territory.

Ukrainian troops have successfully recaptured the village of Robotyne following a brutal 11-week battle.

This is seen as a major milestone in their continued battle to sever the land link between the annexed Crimea peninsula and Donesk - a move many military experts believe would swing the war firmly in Ukraine's favour." (Express : 30 August 2023) (my emphasis)

And Putin himself is now preparing the Russian people for his use of 'nuclear weapons'.

 Express : 30 August 2023

Putin's desperation is underlined by, as reported by Euronews,

"Negotiations on future arms deliveries from North Korea to Russia are "actively progressing", a US official said on Wednesday.

The deals could see Moscow receive "significant quantities" of weapons, especially ammunition and raw materials, claimed White House spokesman John Kirby.

North Korean regime was urged to "cease" its talks with Russia.

"Such an arms deal would be a serious violation of [UN] Security Council resolutions" on North Korea, said US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield.

Calling Russia's attitude "unacceptable", she indicated the United States would sanction "individuals and entities" facilitating this agreement between Moscow and Pyongyang." (Euronews : 31 August 2023) (my emphasis) 

Hindustan Times : 31 August 2023 : YouTube

 Further underlining Putin's desperation, Max Channon (left) reports that,

"Russia has been weakened and is running out of the elite airborne infantry units it once relied on to carry out large-scale offensives in Ukraine, analysts in the United States have said.
.....
The ISW [Institute for the Study of War] notes that, on August 27, an elite Russian air unit was transferred to Robotyne, likely from Luhansk Oblast. Ukrainian forces went on to liberate Robotyne the following day, August 28." (Express : 29 August 2023) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, Joel Day (right) reports that,

"Vladimir Putin's time is running out and Russia's security service is already eyeing up candidates to take the top job, Express.co.uk has been told.
...

[Dr Felshtinsky (left), Russian historian], believes that the FSB will soon pick a new Prime Minister of Russia who will be the next President.

"They did it with Putin in 1999," he said. "When [Boris] Yeltsin resigned, by law, the Prime Minister became President of Russia. He has technically been in that position ever since.

"If we see suddenly that the Prime Minister is changed to somebody else, let's say Nikolai Patrushev (the secretary of the Security Council of Russia), this will be an indication that they're making Patrushev the President." (Express : 30 August 2023) (my emphasis)

Putin now teeters on the edge of the abyss, tearing open his 'nuclear' briefcase and poising his finger over the red button that he now sees as his only chance of survival.

Will he now press the red nuclear button to save himself?  

UPDATE 1 : 31 August 2023 : 19.59

Matthew Dooley (left) has just reported that,

"A pro-Vladimir Putin pundit has admitted that the war is lost for Russia unless Moscow uses a nuclear weapon.

Speaking on Russian State TV, hardliner Vladimir Solovyov slammed Russian officials after the news of a massive Ukrainian drone strike on the airfield in Pskov which damaged or destroyed several Russian aircraft.
...
“If we are going to wage war, we should wage war,” he said before claiming that a small Ukrainian breakthrough at the city of Robotyne was “the perfect case for a tactical nuclear strike”. (Express : 31 August : 2023) (my emphasis)

Admitting that Putin's war in Ukraine is being lost, his propaganda TV mouthpiece seems to be preparing the people of Russia for Putin's possible impending use of a 'nuclear' bomb in Ukraine.

Putin is now more than teetering on the brink of an abyss that could spark a war with NATO's EU members.

                                             Russia Media Monitor : 30 August 2023 : YouTube

                                         

 

 

(to be continued)

Putin's fear of defeat in Ukraine is about to overwhelm him.

 In the wake of the murky circumstances surrounding the death of Prigozhin, the CBS News chief foreign affairs correspondent, Margaret Brennan (left), critically reviews the underlying reasons why, in the words of  US President Biden, 

""I don't know for a fact what happened [to Prigozhin]... but I am not surprised" (blog entry  ....)

Margaret Brennan : CBS News : 26 August 2023

As Margaret Brennan says,

"... the murky way he [Putin] sort of described it [the death of Prigozhin], not taking credit for an assasination, rather saying that, "Prigozhin was a man who made some mistakes", and he said that in a TV broadcast." (Margaret Brennan : CBS News : 26 August 2023) (my emphasis)

Is it therefore any coincidence that, so soon after Prigiozhin's death, as reported by Mattha Busby, Clea Skopeliti and Adam Fulton,

"The crash that killed militia leader Yevgeny Prigozhin has raised serious questions about the future of the mercenary Wagner Group of which he was the leader, especially following Putin’s demand for fighters to sign an oath of allegiance. 

Yesterday, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov (left) refused to comment on Wagner’s future. However, according to the Moscow Times, he said that “legally the Wagner private military group does not exist”." (The Guardian : 26 August 2023) (my emphasis)

The Wagner private military group may not exist legally but, as reported by Luke Whelan (right),

"Fully masked Wagner Group mercenaries have been spotted crying over the death of their beloved leader – the warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin – at a makeshift shrine in Russia.
...
Similar memorials have been posted up at the group’s offices in Yekaterinburg and St Petersburg, according to the local media outlet Fontanka" (Express : 24 August 2023) (my emphasis)

More significantly, as reported by Alessandra Scotto di Santolo (left),

"Prigozhin's security services have allegedly conducted a swift operation to collect all electronics and documents from their offices before vanishing without a trace, in what sources say it's Prigozhin's 'Plan B' in case he was killed. ...

This contingency plan is rumored to involve the release of compromising materials, or "kompromat", targeting none other than Russian President ladimir Putin himself.

Putin remained silent as speculation swirled, addressing the BRICS summit in Johannesburg via videolink without mentioning the crash. Russian state media also has not covered it extensively" (Express : 24 August 2023) (my emphasis) 

 BBC News : 25 August 2023 : YouTube

 However, Nick Mordowanec (left) raises some interesting points viz.,

"The rumored death of Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin in a plane crash Wednesday has led to speculation about whether he was even on the plane.
...
"It's difficult to imagine that Prigozhin and Utkin would place themselves in such a position to be killed by Putin, after their demonstration of incredible competence and meticulous preparation for the coup against Putin," Sushko said." (Newsweek : 23 August 2023) (my emphasis)

Nonetheless, the fallout from the news of  Progozhin's death has had significant effects on Putin's war with Ukraine.

Nick Mordowanec further reports that,

"A Russian military volunteer corps that has fought for Ukraine's sovereignty has a new message to Wagner Group fighters in the wake of Yevgeny Prigozhin's presumed death: Join our forces and fight the Kremlin.
...
"Therefore, now you are faced with a serious choice: Either stand in the stall of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation and serve as watchdogs for the executioners of your commanders, or take revenge. To take revenge, you need to go over to the side of Ukraine. If you have not committed war crimes, we invite you to join our ranks." (Microsoft Start : Newsweek article : 26 August 2023) (my emphasis)

And against the backdrop of the fallout from Prigozhin's death, Ellie Cook (left) reports that,

"Ukrainian military intelligence (GUR) forces landed on the shores of the Russian-annexed territory overnight on Thursday, the GUR said in a statement. GUR soldiers and Ukrainian navy forces approached the settlements of Olenivka and Mayak in western Crimea on waterborne vessels, the agency added.
...
"[T]he GUR said it had destroyed a Russian S-400 air defense system at Cape Tarkhankut, killing a number of Russian soldiers.

"Crimea will be de-occupied like all other parts of Ukraine that are unfortunately still under the occupier," Zelensky said in an address on Wednesday." (Newsweek: 24 August 2023) (my emphasis)

James Kilner (right) also reports that,

"Ukraine’s forces believe they have broken through Russia’s strongest line of defence and will now be able to advance more quickly, a commander fighting in the south has said.

Kyiv’s troops are poised to capture the village of Robotyne in the southern sector of the frontline, a victory that commanders say could unlock Russia’s formidable defences." (Microsoft Start : Telegraph article: 26 August 2023) (my emphasis)

Not only does Putin now have to reinforce protecting his back against 'revenge seeking' Wagner soldiers, but he also now has to contend with Ukrainian soldiers penetrating into Ukraine's Crimea and breaking through his strongest line of defence on Ukrainian soil.

Putin's fear of defeat in Ukraine is about to overwhelm him. 

 

 

 

(to be continued)

Putin's fear of defeat is escalating.

 It is now flooding the internet ether that the "Privileged Apartheid Reared South African (PARSA)", Elon Musk, 

" ... considered [last year] pulling Starlink satellite internet from Ukraine after having a “great conversation with Putin,” according to a former Pentagon official" (Josh Salisbury: Evening Standard: 22 August 2023) (my emphasis) (cf also: Kate Nicholson: Huffington Post : 22 August 2023).

And, as now reported by John Bacon and Jorge L. Ortiz,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin won't be shaking hands at a major international summit in South Africa, discouraged from attending in person because of criminal charges linked to his invasion of Ukraine.
...
But host South Africa is a member of the International Criminal Court, which in March issued an arrest warrant for Putin and Russian official Maria Lvova-Belova for an alleged scheme to steal Ukrainian children and bring them to Russia for adoption. South Africa would be obliged to arrest the Russian leader if he traveled to the meeting in Johannesburg." (USA Today : 22 August 2023) (my emphasis) 

WION : 21 August 2023 : YouTube

 As Dylan Robertson  reported in April 2023,

"South African authorities (left: President Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa) will have to grapple with whether to enforce an International Criminal Court warrant against Russian President Vladimir Putin if he follows through on plans to attend the BRICS Summit -- which also includes Brazil, India and China -- this August in Johannesburg." (CTV News : 23 April 2023) (my emphasis) (cf also : Blog Entry : 24 April 2023)

Let us recall that in October of 2022 PARSA Musk tweeted how to achieve “Ukraine-Russia peace”.

Furthermore, as reported last year by Kate Nicholson (right), PARSA Musk suggested that :-

• “Redo elections of annexed regions under UN supervision. Russia leaves if that is will of the people.”
• “Crimea formally part of Russia, as it has been since 1783 (until Khrushchev’s mistake).
• “Water supply to Crimea assured.” (Huffington Post : 4 October 2022) (my emphasis)

Evening Standard: 22 August 2023

 In other words, PARSA Musk then believed that Ukraine should fully capitulate to Putin and allow him to keep his illegally annexed land of Ukraine, as well as simply 'gifting' Crimea to him.

It is interesting to note that China, South Africa, India, and Brazil, of the current BRICS  group, are all donning the same political mantle of wanting peace between Putin and Zelensky whilst studiously refusing to point to Putin as the instigator of this war in the first place.

PARSA Musk falls into the same category of wanting peace whilst refusing to lay the blame for Putin's war with Ukraine at Putin's feet.

And against the background of this 'political' sanctimonious stand of China, South Africa, Brazil, India, and PARSA Musk, Matthew Dooley (left) informs us that,

"Vladimir Putin’s right-hand man Dmitri Medvedev has vowed that Russia will conquer Ukraine even if it takes decades.

In what appeared to be a thinly veiled threat against the West, Russia’s former president painted Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine as an existential crisis for Moscow.

“We must not stop [the war] until the current, inherently terrorist Ukrainian state is completely dismantled. It must be destroyed to the ground…so that even the ashes from it do not remain,” Medvedev wrote on Telegram." (Daily Express (US) : 21 August 2023) (my emphasis)

Medvedev is not alone in wishing to completely destroy Ukraine.

Putin's propaganda mouthieces on Russian TV are similarly pushing the same "nuclear Armageddon" into the minds of Russian people.

Russia Media Monitor : 22 August 2023 : YouTube 

They seem to be mirroring, as reported by Alex Shipman,

"Vladimir Putin showed signs of fear while visiting top military brass over the weekend, a body language expert has told Daily Express US.
...
Putin, seen exiting a black SUV before meeting military personnel, “looks wary and lacking in status signals” and has an expression “that might normally suggest fear”, body language expert Judi James said. " (Daily Express (US) : 20 August 2023) (my emphasis)

Daily Express (US) : 20 August 2023

As I wrote in my previous blog entry (19 August 2023),

"This [constant] threat of 'nuclear Armageddon' may be due to the fact that, as reported by the Economist,

"“During the past two weeks we have seen things gradually tipping in Ukraine’s favour,” says Nico Lange, a Ukraine expert at the Munich Security Conference. The evidence from both satellite imagery and (mainly Russian) military bloggers is that slow progress is being made. Sir Lawrence Freedman, a British military strategist, agrees: “They’re [the Ukrainian army are] doing [their] stuff and they’re stretching the Russians.” (The Economist : 16 August 2023) (my emphasis)

The ramping up of 'nuclear Armageddon' by Putin's "glove puppet" Medvedev, and by his ardent propagandists on Russian TV, seem to underscore what Alex Shipman refers to as 'Putin's fear'.

Is it the counter-offensive successes of Ukraine's army that is causing Putin's fear of defeat to escalate?    

UPDATE 1 : 24 August 2023

Underscoring Putin's fear we now learn, as reported by Will Vernon,

"[...] today, as the news broke that Yevgeny Prigozhin's plane had fallen out of the sky, crashing in a fireball in Russia's Tver Region, most people were far from shocked. In fact, most Russians were probably surprised it hadn't happened sooner.

Speculation had been swirling for weeks in Russia about exactly what fate awaited Yevgeny Prigozhin. Exactly two months ago, the Wagner boss launched his brief mutiny." (BBC News : 24 August 2023) (my emphasis) 

As US President Biden commented on this news,

"I don't know for a fact what happened ... but I am not surprised"

MSNBC : 24 August 2023

UPDATE 2 : 24 August 2023

Furthermore, and as if to underscore the fact that the actions and pronouncements of PARSA Musk is now being more closely scrutinised, Zeeshan Aleem reports that,

 "The New York Times reported last week that [PARSA] Musk had been sporadically slowing access to rival social media sites, and even some media outlets, in yet another demonstration of how he’s able to use his platform to selectively boost and punish content-makers based on his personal preferences. Musk’s declared devotion to free speech continues to be proved false." (MSNBC : 23 August 2023) (my emphasis)

 MSNBC : 23 August 2023

 

 

 

 

(to be continued)

Putin is living on borrowed time.

Notwithstanding Putin's 'glove puppet'  constantly threatening to unleash 'nuclear Armageddon' if, as reported by David Brennan ,

"Dmitry Medvedev—Russia's former prime minister and president who has become one of Moscow's most prominent hawks—has asserted that Ukrainian "capitulation" is the only path to peace, as Kyiv's forces continue a slow counteroffensive." (Newsweek : 11 August 2023) (my emphasis),

Newsweek : 11 August 2023

we now have, as reported by Tim McNulty and Will Stewart, 

"Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu (left) issued a warning today about the possibility of a "nuclear disaster" in the Ukraine conflict, as he blamed Kyiv for bombing a nuclear power station.
...
This comment comes as Western concerns rise about Russia staging a phony incident to blame a nuclear disaster on Ukraine, triggering radioactive pollution across Europe. (Express : 15 August 2023) (my emphasis) 

As also reported by Jacob Paul,

"Russia could be plotting a horrific string of false flag attacks on two nuclear facilities, including one on its own turf, according to reports.

Russian President Vladimir Putin could be devising a terrifying plan to target its own nuclear plant in the Kursk region of Russia in a false flag attack, a spokesperson of the Ukrainian Armed Forces said on Tuesday. (Express :16 August 2023) (my emphasis)

Express :16 August 2023

That Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has now also climbed onto Medvedev's bandwagon of  'threatening nuclear Armageddon' should give us serious pause for concern.

Shoigu, together with Putin, also has his finger poised above the nuclear button.   

This threat of 'nuclear Armageddon' by Shoigu may be due to the fact that, as reported by the Economist,

"“During the past two weeks we have seen things gradually tipping in Ukraine’s favour,” says Nico Lange, a Ukraine expert at the Munich Security Conference. The evidence from both satellite imagery and (mainly Russian) military bloggers is that slow progress is being made. Sir Lawrence Freedman, a British military strategist, agrees: “They’re [the Ukrainian army are] doing [their] stuff and they’re stretching the Russians.” (The Economist : 16 August 2023) (my emphasis)

 Added to which, as reported by Oren Liebermann and Natasha Barrett (left),

"The US has committed to approving the transfer of F-16 fighter jets for Ukraine as soon as pilot training is complete, according to a US official.
...
Denmark and the Netherlands have taken the lead in preparing a program to train Ukrainian pilots on the American jet, but the US is still working with other countries to see who may provide F-16s to the Ukrainian Air Force.
...
Secretary of State Antony Blinken sent letters to his counterparts in Denmark and the Netherlands assuring them that the transfer of the jets would have the “full support” of the Biden administration and would move quickly when training on the advanced aircraft is complete. (CNN : 17 August 2023) (my emphasis)

Sky News : 18 August 2023 : YouTube

 Adding to Putin's panic on hearing that F-16 fighter jets will be transferred to Ukraine, Michael Race (left) reports that,

"Russia has hiked interest rates to 12% after the rouble fell to its lowest value in 16 months.

The currency fell past 100 per dollar on Monday, prompting Russia's central bank to hold an emergency meeting.
...
Pressure has been mounting on the Russian economy due to imports rising faster than exports and military spending growing for the Ukraine war." (BBC News : 16 August 2023) (my emphasis)

Reuters : 16 August 2023 : YouTube

If this were not enough to increase Putin's furious pacing around in his bunker, Tom Watling (left) reports that,

"Russian forces defending a major flashpoint on the frontline have admitted a rare defeat as Ukrainian officials claimed their soldiers had “entrenched” themselves in the village [of Urozhaine].

Urozhaine, near the Zaporizhzhia/Donetsk border, has been the site of heavy tank battles for weeks as Ukrainian forces looked to accelerate their counter offensive.

The liberation of Urozhaine amounts to a major breakthrough for Ukraine as they look to proceed down the spine of the Russian fortifications to the Sea of Azov." (Express : 16 August 2023) (my emphasis)

And on the home front in Russia, Jacob Paul informs us that,

"A state television presenter dubbed the "Iron Doll of Putin TV" appeared to deny the Russian president's argument that Moscow has a historic claim to the Black Sea territory of Crimea.
...
A Russian presenter appeared to admit live on state TV that the illegally annexed Crimean Peninsula is not part of Russia in a major blow to Vladimir Putin.
...
Olga Skabeyeva (right), who has been dubbed the "Iron Doll of Putin TV", made the comments during a broadcast on Russia-1, which was later shared on X (formerly Twitter) by Anton Gerashchenko, adviser to Ukraine's minister of internal affairs." (Express : 16 August 2023) (my emphasis)  (cf also: Isabel van Brugen:Newsweek:16 August 2023)

Newsweek:16 August 2023

Ukraine's advancing counter offensive, coupled with a hike in interest rates as the rouble continues to plunge in value, and Skabeyeva's 'slip of the tongue' about Crimea not being part of Russia, must be driving Putin apoplectic with fear and rage.

Putin now knows that he is living on borrowed time as power continues to slip through his fingers. 

 

 

 

(to be continued)

Putin is now beginning to sink.

As reported by Veronika Melkozerova (left),

"Representatives of some 40 countries that took part in Saudi-hosted Ukraine peace talks this weekend agreed that any peace treaty to end Russia’s war against Ukraine must be based on respect for the territorial integrity of Ukraine and the U.N. Charter, the Ukrainian government said on Sunday.

Russia did not take part in the talks. But China, a longtime ally of Russia, attended the gathering in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. (Politico : 6 August 2023) (my emphasis) (cf also: Laura Kelly : The Hill : 7 August 2023)

DW News : 7 August 2023 : YouYube

 A rather critical outcome from this conference is the fact that,

“China did not object, as it has never objected that Ukraine’s territorial integrity should be respected,” Igor Zhovkva, deputy head of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s office, told POLITICO." (ibid Veronika Melkozerova) (my emphasis)

As further reported by Aurora Bosotti (left),

"Cracks have started to show in the partnership between China and Russia, and the war in Ukraine appears to be the leading point of contention.

While Beijing has maintained what it claimed to be a neutral position since the start of the invasion, refusing to condemn Moscow and claiming NATO expansion had contributed to igniting the war, the People's Republic has also called for an end to the conflict." (Express : 10 August 2023) (my emphasis)

Further adding to Putin's woes, Clive Hammond reports that,

"Vladimir Putin's top military aide, Sergei Shoigu (right), was left red-faced after he admitted the Ukraine war had backfired on Russia.
...
He used his opening remarks to the meeting to describe how there was a "manifold increase in the threats to Russia's military security in the western and northwestern strategic directions"." (Express : 10 August 2023) (my emphasis)

And if this was not enough to increase Putin's desperate treading of 'political' water, the Associated Press reports that,

"The ruble dropped against the United States dollar in trading Friday in Moscow to its lowest level since the first month of the war in Ukraine.
...
Friday’s value was the lowest point since March 28, 2022, state news agency Tass reported." (Associated Press : 4 August 2023) (my emphasis) (cf also: Yahoo Finance (Bloomberg News) : 9 August 2023)

Putin's desperation is further exemplified by the fact that,

"Alexander Lukashenko (left) is believed to have kicked out from Belarus members of the Wagner Group .

The close ally of Vladimir Putin had agreed to have the mercenaries set up camp in his country after their attempted coup against the Russian leader in July.
...
But reports have now emerged suggesting Lukashenko refused to finance their stay in the country and the mercenaries are being "bussed" back to Russia.

According to the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel, operations to remove all Wagner Group men began earlier in the month, with a second phase scheduled to take place on August 13." (Aurora Bosotti : Express : 9 August 2023) (my emphasis) 

This volte-face .... this total change of position .... of Alexander Lukashenko just may have something to do with the fact that,

"The Polish government announced Wednesday that it is planning to deploy an additional 2,000 troops to its border with Belarus, twice the number the Border Guard agency had requested, as fears of illegal migration rise." (ABC News (Associated Press report) : 9 August 2023 : (my emphasis)

Like the "cracks [that] have started to show in the partnership between China and Russia" (ibid Aurora Bosotti) , are cracks now beginning to appear between Putin and Lukashenko?

Putin's continuing failures on the political and the economic fronts is being mirrored by his failures on the battlefront in his war with Ukraine.

As reported by Ellie Cook (right),

"Ukrainian forces have again damaged a key bridge linking Russian-controlled Crimea to mainland Ukraine using Western-supplied Storm Shadow missiles, according to a Russian-backed official in southern Ukraine.
...
Experts say Ukrainian strikes hone in on crucial Russian military bases and infrastructure. The Chonhar Bridge passes through northern Crimea, linking the Russian military logistics hub at Dzhankoi to Melitopol, a city in Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia region, which is occupied by Russian forces." (Newsweek : 6 August 2023) (my emphasis)

Newsweek : 6 August 2023

 

As further reported by Aurora Bosotti,

"Vladimir Putin could soon be forced to say farewell to what has long been considered to be the top achievement of his decade-long Ukrainian campaign.

Russian forces unilaterally annexed Crimea in 2014 following a fake referendum, after which Moscow deployed a large contingent of troops to the area.
...
But with Ukraine now slowly pushing forward with its counteroffensive in the wider context of the ongoing war with Russia, Putin's men have grown increasingly aware their stay in the [Crimea] ...  is now temporary." (Express : 9 August 2023) (my emphasis) 

Connor Surmonte : Radar Online : 7 August 2023

 

And as Mia Jankowicz (left) reports,

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Russia may find itself without ships by the end of the war if it continues to attack Ukrainian ports.
...
While Russia's conventional naval power dwarfs Ukraine's, Ukraine has been needling Russia's fleet with maritime drones. At the end of July, Ukraine demonstrated the capabilities of a fast and powerful new sea drone when it launched a strike on the Kerch Bridge in Crimea, Ukraine." (Business Insider : 8 August 2023) (my emphasis)

 

Putin is no longer furiously treading water.

 

Putin is now beginning to sink. 

 

UPDATE 1: 12 Augsust 2023

Putin's 'siloviki' continues to implode upon itself.

As Darya Tarasova, Tim Lister and Radina Gigova now inform us,,

" The founder and former CEO of Russia’s largest internet company, Arkady Volozh (right), has slammed Vladimir Putin’s “barbaric” war in Ukraine, becoming one of the most prominent Russian businessmen to express criticism of what Russia still calls euphemistically its “special military operation.”
....
“I am totally against Russia’s barbaric invasion of Ukraine, where I, like many, have friends and relatives. I am horrified by the fact that every day bombs fly into the homes of Ukrainians,” said Volozh, describing himself “as a “Kazakhstan-born, Israeli tech entrepreneur, computer scientist, investor, and philanthropist.”" (CNN Business : 10 August 2023) (my emphasis)

 

Added to which, the Associated Press reports that,

 

"The U.S. Treasury Department on Friday imposed financial sanctions against four Russians on the board of Alfa Group, one of Russia’s largest conglomerates with interests in oil, natural gas and banking.

The sanctions are part of continuing efforts to place restrictions on the economy of Russia and its wealthiest powerbrokers, a response to its invasion last year of Ukraine and the ensuing war." (AP : 11 August 2023) (my emphasis)

 

But perhaps most disconcerting for Putin, as reported by Sky News,

 

"The deal which stopped Wagner's march to topple military leaders in Moscow is likely falling apart, according to a US think tank.
...
Vladimir Putin has "failed to decisively resolve" the fallout of Wagner's June rebellion, it said.

"Wagner-affiliated sources claimed that the main Wagner forces will 'activate' at the end of August but did not elaborate," said the ISW.

It added speculations about defence minister Sergei Shoigu taking over Russian military operations in Africa from Wagner are "angering Wagner personnel".

Wagner forces may be withdrawing because Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko refused to finance the group after Russia declined funding, said the ISW, citing a Russian insider." (Sky News : 11 August 2023) (my emphasis)  (cf also: Aurora Bosotti )

 

UPDATE 2 : 13 August 2023

 

Sky News now reports that,

 

"Prof Michael Clarke says Vladimir Putin's credibility is "draining away" following reports he met with Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin five days after the mutiny he led." (Sky News : 13 August 2023) (my emphasis)

 

Sky News : 13 August 2023

Sky News further reports that,

"Vladimir Putin's inner circle is trying to oust the despot so they can bring an end to Russia's disastrous war in Ukraine." (Sky News : 13 August 2023) (my emphasis)

 

Sky News : 13 August 2023

 

Putin now has nowhere to run to.

 

(to be continued)