Panicked Putin must now choose between 'peace' and 'nuclear armageddon'.

In 1964, in the lead up to the British election, Harold Wilson (left) is supposed to have coined the famous phrase, ‘A week is a long time in politics.’

The current diplomatic actions and political statements from international politicians, as Putin fails to turn Ukraine into a vassal state of Russia, now changes Harold Wilson's famous phrase into, "An hour is a long time in politics".

From Putin's ongoing and dangerous war in Ukraine, to the dangerous escalation of the war in the Middle East, Putin's redrawing of his lines for the use of Russia's nuclear capability in  Ukraine is leading the world to face global armageddon.

 As reported by Vladimir Soldatkin (left) and Guy Faulconbridge  (right),

"President Vladimir Putin warned the West on Wednesday that Russia could use nuclear weapons if it was struck with conventional missiles, and that Moscow would consider any assault on it supported by a nuclear power to be a joint attack.

The decision to change Russia's official nuclear doctrine is the Kremlin's answer to deliberations in the United States and Britain about whether or not to give Ukraine permission to fire conventional Western missiles into Russia." (Reuters: 25 September 2024) (my emphasis)

 DW News: 26 September 2024: YouTube

Disconcertingly, Putin's TV propaganda pundits now includes their TV weatherman, Evgeny Tishkovets (left).

As he states on his TV program,

"Russia reserves the right to respond by nuclear means to any critical threat, even with conventional weapons. 

If this happens, it will be hell to pay for everyone."

Russian Media Monitor: 28 September 2024: YouTube

Like a 'cat on a hot tin roof ', Brazilian, Chinese, and Swiss international politicians are now 'frantically' scrambling around calling for 'peace' by trying to appease Putin by embracing his terms for a ceasefire in his war with Ukraine.

And against the background of all this frantic 'Putin peace terms' diplomacy, AlJazeera reports that,

"Biden announced [a] “surge in security assistance” for Ukraine on Thursday, saying that the aid would be provided in two tranches of $5.5bn and $2.4bn, the package including the provision of Joint Standoff Weapon (JSOW) munitions to “enhance Ukraine’s long-range strike capabilities”. (Aljazeera: 26 September 2024) (my emphasis)

 whilst Zelensky urges the world at the UN to accept his peace formula.

"We have to withdraw the Russian occupiers, which will bring an end to hostilities in Ukraine ....... and uphold the UN  Charter" (ibid AlJazeera)

 Aljazeera: 26 September 2024

Putin and his 'siloviki' have painted themselves into a 'nuclear' corner whilst continuosly, and indiscriminately, bombing Ukrainian civilians and Ukraine's infrastructure.

As reported by Pavel Polityuk (left),

" Russia attacked a hospital in Sumy in northeastern Ukraine early on Saturday, killing 10 people and injuring at least 22 others, Ukrainian officials said.

Danielle Bell, head of the U.N. Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine, said "loitering munitions" - or suicide drones - hit the Saint Panteleimon Clinical Hospital in two attacks 45 minutes apart.

"Most of the fatalities occurred during the second strike, which hit as first responders arrived at the site and patients attempted to evacuate," she said." (Reuters: 28 September 2024) (my emphasis)

This sheer inhumanity of Putin will not prevent the Russian war economy from imploding.

As reported by Oli Smith,

"Russia's war machine could soon grind to a halt due to the country's crumbling economy. Vladimir Putin has poured hundreds of billions from the federal budget into the country's defence and security as Russia continues to wage a brutal war in Ukraine.

However, his plans to drag the war on could be scuppered after Russia's crude oil income dramatically dropped this month. Income from crude oil shipments, which provided 16 percent of Russia's GDP last year, has dropped to its lowest level in eight months." (Express: 25 September 2024) (my emphasis)

 Joe Blogs: 30 September: YouTube

Panicked Putin and his 'siloviki' must now choose between 'peace' and 'nuclear armageddon'.

UPDATE : 1 October 2024:

CNN reports that,

"The Russian government wants to earmark 32.5% of its spending for defense in 2025, a record amount and up from a reported 28.3% this year, as Moscow seeks to prevail in the war in Ukraine.
...
Russian President Vladimir Putin is also looking at how to sustain his war effort as military spending has placed a huge strain on the Russian economy." (AP on CNN: 30 September 2024) (my emphasis)

CNN goes on to report that,

"Meanwhile, on Monday Putin signed a call-up order for 133,000 conscripts in the autumn military draft, which is a routine number for seasonal conscription campaigns.

In September, he ordered the military to increase the number of troops by 180,000 to a total of 1.5 million. Overall military personnel would be about 2.4 million." (ibid  CNN)

[Note that : Putin's nuclear warning came as Ukraine presses the United States to provide long-range weapons that would allow it to strike deep within Russia.] (cf Vladimir Soldatkin  and Guy Faulconbridge above)

It should be borne in mind that Putin's conscipts being called up are "not allowed to join Russian forces in Ukraine", but  will be eligible for confronting Ukraines' forces in Russia's Kursk.

And as Arne Delfs and Annmarie Hordern now  report,

"German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (left) expressed support for Ukraine’s request for long-range Taurus cruise missiles, putting herself at odds with Chancellor Olaf Scholz who has ruled out sending the weapons over fears it could trigger direct conflict with Russia.
...
Baerbock blamed Russia’s war on Ukraine in part for Germany’s current budget constraints, which have forced the government to broadly rein in outlays while maintaining its pledge to meet NATO’s goal of spending 2% of gross domestic product on the military." (Bloomberg on Yahoo News: 30 Sept 2024) (my emphasis)

All this merely serves to underscore that a panicked Putin and his 'siloviki' must now choose between 'peace' and 'nuclear armageddon'. 

UPDATE: 3 October 2024

Rebecca Robinson now reports that,

"He [Putin] plans to increase defence spending by 25 percent next year, pushing the total defence budget to a staggering 13.5 trillion rubles (£109bn).

Draft budget documents released on Monday on the parliament’s website detailed these plans, revealing that spending on defence and security will make up 40 percent of Russia's total budget.

Russian pensioner Irina, 70, expressed her "outrage" to AFP at the news, calling the increased spending a "crime" and telling the outlet that "we need to end this war".

Another pensioner quoted by the outlet called the budget hike a "shame and a disgrace", as Russia cannot afford to give money to help its poor children so should not be spending such large amounts on prolonging the war." (Express: 2 October 2024) (my emphasis)

How much longer Putin, with his full control over Russia's TV propaganda machine, can prevent the people of Russia from rising up against him now remains to be seen. 

UPDATE: 5 October 2024 

Kris Boratyn (left) reports that,

"Vladimir Putin is reportedly feeling the strain of economic pressures that resemble those that led to the collapse of the Soviet Union.
...
Draft budget documents also showed Moscow plans to boost national defence spending by a quarter in 2025 to 6.3 percent of GDP - the highest level since the Cold War.

In contrast, the Russian government is cutting back on social services, including pensions by around 15 percent.

"So Putin knows his economy is under pressure,” a Western official said, adding this mirrors the economic strain that contributed to the Soviet Union’s downfall." (Express: 4 October 2024) (my emphasis) 

Putin now has nowhere behind which he could 'politically' hide.

 

 

 

(to be continued)

Putin is now experiencing the sheer panic of defeat.

The last week has seen Ukraine's "drone army" attack and destroy arms depots critical for Putin's continued bombardment of Ukraine's civilian population and critical winter infrastructure.

As Ciaran McGrath reports,

"Russia’s ability to wage war - and repel occupying Ukrainian troops in Kursk - has almost certainly been badly compromised by a drone attack on an strategically crucial ammunition depot, a UK Ministry of Defence bulletin has claimed.
...
The MoD said: "This depot is a storage site of the 107th Arsenal of the Russian Main Missile and Artillery Directorate and almost certainly housed munitions varying calibres for frontline use, as well as missiles and glide bombs used by nearby airfields.

"Ammunition procured from North Korea was also reportedly stored here." 

...
Renovated in 2018, it is one of Russia's largest strategic ammunition depots directly supporting its operation in Ukraine, storing more than 30,000 tonnes of ordnance, the MoD statement continued.

"The explosion at Toropets was recorded at 2.7 on the Richter scale, equivalent to a mild earthquake, with fires covering a 6km-wide area. " (Express: 21 September 2024) (my emphasis)

Irish Examiner on Microsoft Start: 21 September 2024

 Max Hunder (left) and Tom Balmforth (right) also report that,

"Ukraine said on Saturday it had hit two Russian munition depots overnight, in attacks that illustrated its growing capability to strike targets deep inside Russia.
Russian officials acknowledged the Ukrainian attack on one of the depots in southern Krasnodar region, saying it was carried out with drones. They introduced local emergency measures to mitigate the effects of the assault.

A statement by Ukraine's military general staff said the munitions depots were at Tikhoretsk in Krasnodar region and Oktyabrsky in the western region of Tver." (Reuters: 21 September 2024) (my emphasis)

As was to be expected, in retaliation, Putin's "forever" use of the nuclear option was once again paraded on the international political scene.

That Soviet dyed-in the wool Russian foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov (left), announced after the destruction of Putin's arm depots that (cf video below),

"Russia is ready to act if long-range missiles strike Russian territory.

I assure you that we have weapons that will have serious consequences for the patrons of the Ukraine regime." ....

I'm convinced that in such situations, those making decisions understand what we are talking about. No one wants a nuclear war" (video below) (cf also: Times of India: 20 Septembe 2024)

Times of India on Microsoft Start: 21 September 2024

Unfortunately for Lavrov, as Ciaran McGrath reports,

"Satellite imagery has appeared to show a massive crater at a Russian missile test centre after a nuclear-capable RS-28 Sarmat exploded in a humiliating blow for President Vladimir Putin.

The weapon - known in the West as Satan-2 - is regarded by the Kremlin as a powerful tool within its arsenal. However, the latest incident is believed to be the fourth successive failure, calling its reliability into question." (Express: 22 September 2024) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, as reported by Fingerlakes 1,

"Iran has supplied Russia with close-range ballistic missiles but withheld mobile launchers, according to U.S. and European officials. The delivery, which Washington accuses Tehran of sending for use against Ukraine, raises questions about when the missiles will become operational." (Fingerlakes 1: 21 September 2024) (my emphasis)

Added to which, Richard Ashmore (right) now reports that,

"The sleeping giant of public opinion could become the biggest threat yet to Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine as a shock new poll reveals half of Russians want their soldiers home.

The results of the survey come after a difficult few weeks for Putin who has been humiliated by Ukrainian forces staging a series of daring attacks on targets inside Russia, including an audacious counter-offensive into the Kursk region last month.
...
The US news site says a new poll conducted with ExtremeScan, which quizzed 800 people between September 10 and 17, found 49 percent of Russians supported withdrawing soldiers from Ukraine and starting peace talks." (Express: 21 September 2024) (my emphasis)

It should therefore come as no surprise that,

 "Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy (left) said on Saturday that the end of the more than 2-1/2-year-old war with Russia depended on the "resolve" of Kyiv's Western allies in providing needed weaponry and permission to use it.

Zelenskiy, speaking in his nightly video address, thanked his military for a new strike on an arsenal in Russia, though he did not identify the location.

He also said his meetings next week in the United States were "crucial" to ensuring that Ukraine had the defense capabilities it needed. (Ron Popeski and Oleksander Kozhukhar: Reuters: 21 September 2024) (my emphasis)

One can begin to imagine the panic of 'cold sweats' of defeat that Putin is now experiencing in his bunker.

No amount of lists of countries “showing destructive behavior contrary to Russian spiritual and moral values” that he is now waving about will relieve him from the sheer panic of defeat that he is now experiencing.

As Philip Chrysopoulos reports,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin made a list of countries “showing destructive behavior contrary to Russian spiritual and moral values,” with Greece and Cyprus among them.

Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin approved the publication of Kremlin’s list of the 47 countries. The list does not include European Union members Hungary and Slovakia and NATO member Turkey, according to TASS Russian news agency." (Greek Reporter: 22 September 2024) (my emphasis)

Hindustan Times on Greek Reporter: 22 September 2024

Putin is now experiencing the sheer panic of defeat.

 

 

 

(to be continued)

Putin has painted himself into an even tighter 'political corner'

From being 'gingerely' held in Putin's hand, the 'flag of peace' is now been held aloft by him.

And in his other hand he is holding aloft Iranian missiles with which to continue his war with Ukraine.

As reported by Meduza,

"The Pentagon says it’s confirmed that Iran has given “a number of close-range ballistic missiles to Russia.” While Washington isn’t sure exactly how many rockets are being handed over to Moscow, the U.S. Defense Department assesses that Russia could begin putting them to use within a few weeks, “leading to the deaths of even more Ukrainian civilians.” (Meduza: 13 September 2024) (my emphasis)

And whilst Putin is receiving his missiles from the Ayatollas in Iran,  James Landale and Malu Cursino (right) report that,

"The delivery of Iranian missiles to Russia has changed the debate about Ukraine using Western-provided long-range missiles against targets inside Russia, UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy has told the BBC on a visit to Kyiv.
...
In an interview with the BBC, Lammy said Iran providing Russia with ballistic missiles "clearly changes the debate" as they would allow Moscow's forces "to have further penetration into Ukraine". (BBC News: 11 September 2024) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, as reported by David E Sanger, Helene Cooper, and Eric Schmitt,

"United States president Joe Biden appears to be on the verge of clearing the way for Ukraine to launch long-range western weapons deep inside Russian territory, as long as it doesn’t use arms provided by the US, European officials say.
...
Britain has already signalled to the US that it is eager to let Ukraine use its “Storm Shadow” long-range missiles to strike at Russian military targets far from the Ukrainian border. But it wants explicit permission from Mr Biden in order to demonstrate a co-ordinated strategy with the United States and France, which makes a similar missile." (Irish Times: 13 September 2024) (my emphasis)

As Sir Keith Starmer (left) states,

"Russia started the conflict in Ukraine and can end it "straight away”, Sir Keir Starmer has said.

“Russia started this conflict. Russia illegally invaded Ukraine. Russia can end this conflict straight away,” he said.

He later added: “To reiterate, it was Russia who started this in the first place. They caused the conflict, they’re the ones who are acting unlawfully.” (Chris Mason and Isabella Allen: BBC News: 12 September 2024) (my emphasis)

But with the threat of US and UK long-range missiles being aimed at Russia's war infrastructure, Putin once again is threatening to unleash war against NATO members who may greenlight their use of long-range missiles to destroy Putins' war infrastructure.

Sarah Hooper and Jasper King: Metro: 12 September 2024 

The 'political emptiness' of Putin's threats of war with NATO members is best desribed by  LT Col Stuart Crawford (left) as,

"Putin and the Russian people will now be brought ever closer to the front line of their illegal, unprovoked, and aggressive war in Ukraine. Typically, he has reacted to the news with his usual mix of threats and bluster, suggesting that Moscow would regard western missiles being used against it as a serious escalation of the war.
...
While it would be both brave and foolhardy to dismiss such threats completely out of hand, it is most unlikely that Putin would follow through, or be allowed to follow through by his political advisers and rivals in the Kremlin, with such threats.

The reason? Quite simply it would lead to the demise of both him and the Russian regime. NATO is so many times more powerful both militarily and economically than Russia that there could be only one winner. So it won’t happen." (Express: 13 September 2024) (my emphasis)

Sean Bell (right) also states that,

"But frankly, president Putin shown here knows that if the West were directly engaged .... if NATO is directly engaged .... Russia would be stopped in its tracks" (Sky News: 13 September 2024) (my emphasis) (cf also: Mark Moore: International Busness Times: 13 Sept 2024)

Sean Bell: Sky News: 13 September 2024

Putin has painted himself into an even tighter 'political corner' with his threat of war with NATO.

The 'siloviki' in the Kremlin no doubt realise this.

What will be the reaction of the Russian people when they are told that they are at war with NATO?

Will they 'man the barricades' to protect the motherland, with the threat of near total 'nuclear' annihilation hanging like a sword of Damocles over their head if Putin fires even one of his 'nuclear' warheads against a NATO country?

Laura-brick: Metro: 14 September 2024

 

 

 

(to be continued)

The 'peace flag' is no longer being simply gingerly held in Putin's hand.

On September 5th, Tara Copp (left) informed us that,

"Top U.S. military leaders will be in Germany to discuss Ukraine’s wartime needs as Russia has conducted one of its deadliest airstrikes in the conflict and Ukraine presses its offensive in Russia’s Kursk region."
...
The group’s priorities include bolstering Ukraine’s air defenses and “energizing of the defense industrial bases” of allies to ensure long-term support for Kyiv,
Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder, the Pentagon’s press secretary, said in a statement Thursday." (AP: 5 September 2024) (my emphasis)

She goes on to report that,

"That the group of military leaders from Ukraine’s allies [right: incl. US Gen. CQ Brown Jr] has continued to meet and agree to send weapons is extraordinary, however. " (ibid Tara Copp)

Following on from this meeting, Ludwig Burger and Andreas Rinke report that,

"German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called for a renewed effort to bring peace to Ukraine, adding that he and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy had both agreed in recent talks on the need for a new peace conference that would include Russia.
"I believe that now is the time to discuss how to arrive at peace from this state of war, indeed at a faster pace," Scholz told broadcaster ZDF in a televised interview." (Reuters: 8 September 2024) (my emphasis)

This sudden 'urgency' for peace on the part of Olaf Scholtz is, acording to Burger and Rinke,

"Scholz is under pressure at home after all three parties in his centre-left coalition suffered painful losses in two regional state elections one week ago, while groups seeking better relations with Moscow won more votes.

Nationalist party Alternative for Germany (AfD) and new anti-establishment party BSW, who oppose military backing for Ukraine's fight against the Russian invasion, both booked record gains. " (ibid Ludwig Burger and Andreas Rinke)

 

Germans against supporting Ukraine win in German elections

Putin is, no doubt, thanking his 'comrades in arms' in the former East Germany, where he was previously stationed as the KGB representative, for their unwavering support of his war against Ukraine.

But against this backgound Putin's war-anxiety continues to grow apace as :-

• "The governor of Russia's southern Belgorod region said on Sunday Ukrainian forces attacked a fuel depot, triggering a series of fires after Moscow and Kyiv accused each other of launching overnight attacks on border regions." (NDTV: 9 September 2024) (my emphasis)
• "Ukraine is building weapons underground to supply the military with arms in the event of delays in military aid from abroad, President Volodymyr Zelensky said at the Ambrosetti International Economic Forum in Italy on Sept. 7.
  
  "We are building underground facilities for the production of weapons so that Ukrainian soldiers can defend themselves even when supplies from our partners are delayed," Zelensky said." (Kyiv Independent on Yahoo News: 8 September 2024)
• Zelenskyy and Meloni discussed Ukraine's immediate needs before winter, with Meloni emphasizing continued support as vital for Italy's national interest and global stability. (Sertac Aktan: Euro News: 7 September 2024) (my emphasis)

More importantly, John Paul Rathbone (left) reports that,

"Ukraine’s Kursk offensive has dented Vladimir Putin’s war narrative and triggered “questions” among the Russian elite about the point of the war, two of the world’s leading spy chiefs have said.

CIA director Bill Burns said Kursk was “a significant tactical achievement” that had boosted Ukrainian morale and exposed Russia’s weaknesses. It has “raised questions . . . across the Russian elite about where is this all headed”, he said. (Financial Times: 7 September 2024) (my emphasis)

Sky News: 8 September 2024

More disconcerting for Putin, 

"Russian drones have breached Nato airspace as Vladimir Putin’s forces targeted Ukraine in an “irresponsible” overnight attack.

Romania scrambled F-16 fighter jets to monitor the drones, which were detected in the early hours of Sunday morning while Latvia shared photos of a crashed drone in its eastern region.
...
Nato’s outgoing deputy secretary general Mircea Geoană said: 

“While we have  no information indicating an intentional attack by Russia against allies, these acts are irresponsible and potentially dangerous.” (Alexander Butler (left) and Arpan Rai (right): The Independent on Misrosoft Start: 9 September 2024) (my emphasis) 

As Putin's 'siloviki' begin to question the deluded aims of Putin's war with Ukraine, and as the effects of the war on the Russian economy manifest themselves in rising Russian inflation,

Charlie Bradley (left) also reports that,

"Vladimir Putin is facing more and more opposition in the Kremlin as oligarchs and politicians begin to voice anger over the war in Ukraine, an expert has said.

Historian and Russia expert Amy Knight (right) stated that,

"What I am saying is that a backdrop to any signs of discontent...the fact that there has been this [Russian] reshuffle means not all is running smoothly.

"Then Oleg Deripaska, one of the richest Russian oligarchs, all of a sudden he is in Japan and does an interview saying this should stop immediately and it is madness.

"Russian experts are saying that Deripaska would not be saying this if other influential people didn't agree with him." (Express: 8 September 2024) (my emphasis) 

 And now Putin is also trapped by Zelensky and Scholtz who stated that Russia be included in 'peace talks'.

The 'peace flag', it would seem, is no longer being simply gingerly held in Putin's hand.

 

 

 

(to be continued)

The noose is now more rapidly tightening around Putin's neck.

On the horizon autumn is beginning to raise its head as,

 "Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin said two drones were shot down in the area of the Moscow Oil Refinery. No casualties were reported, but the second downed drone damaged a technical building at the refinery and caused a fire, which the mayor said had been localized and did not affect the plant’s operation.

The Russian Defense Ministry acknowledged the size of the Ukrainian attack, but downplayed its effectiveness, saying Sunday that 158 Ukrainian UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles) “were destroyed and intercepted by on-duty air defense” overnight in 15 regions, including over the capital." (Brad Lendon (left): CNN on Microsoft Start: 2 September 2024) (my emphasis)

Kanal 13: 1 September 2024: YouTube

And as also reported by Laura Kayali (left),

"Ukraine's drone offensive comes after a week of massive missile and drone attacks from Russia, which led to the loss of one of Ukraine's U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets.
...
On Friday, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov and Andriy Yermak, the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, presented top U.S. officials with potential targets in Russia during a trip in Washington, on the heels of Kyiv's surprise incursion into Russia's Kursk region in August." (Politico: 1 September 2024) (my  emphasis)

It therefore comes as no surprise that Sergey Lavrov (right), that 'dyed-in-the-wool' Soviet Foreign  Minister of Putin, is scraping the bottom of the political Soviet rhetoric to try to exonerate Putin from his war in Ukraine, besides his 'weird' pronouncements to the people of Russia on Russian TV (RT)  about the war in the Middle East.

One India: 2 September 2014:

 Yet just a few days ago, as reported by Kate Nicholson (left),

"Vladimir Putin’s foreign minister has claimed Russia was “ready” for peace talks before Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk.

Speaking to reporters on Thursday, Sergei Lavrov said the chances of negotiating a deal with Ukraine had been “ruined and sabotaged” when Kyiv turned the tables on Moscow three weeks ago and breached Russian borders.
...
“Our readiness for talks was beyond anyone’s doubt, although, of course, after the reckless move in the Kursk region, any discussion of this subject is no longer relevant.” (Huffington Post: 30 August 2024) (my emphasis)

Lavrov's  'scraping the bottom of  the Russian political barrel' merely reflects what is happening to Putin's sanity as scrambled thoughts  tumble around his turmoiled 'political' mind in his over-protected nuclear bunker.

It is no wonder that, as reported by RFERL,

"Some do it for the money; others for the motherland. Still others because they “just don’t have anything else to do.”

Whatever their motivation, an unknown number of Siberia’s homeless have signed contracts to fight in Ukraine, just as Moscow, seeking to avoid another politically fraught mobilization, struggles to meet its manpower needs, which have now been boosted by a three-week-long Ukrainian incursion into Russia’s western Kursk region.
...
.. sources tell RFE/RL’s Siberia.Realities, officials have been actively seeking new soldiers in homeless shelters across Siberia and the Far East." (RFERL: 2 September 2024) (my emphasis)

Now that the Russian people are beginning to experience missiles raining down upon them, just as Putin in raining missiles down upon innocent Ukrainians, Putin is, indeed, at his most dangerous as the noose is now more rapidly tightening around his neck.

UPDATE: 4 September 2024

 In 2014, after invading and annexing Ukraine's Crimea, historian Alexander Motyl penned the following about Putin as the West watched on,

"Now six days ago, (25th July 2014) Alexander J. Motyl (left) posed the following question:

" Is Putin evil? His actions certainly are, if by evil we understand behavior that willfully, consciously and purposely destroys human life. Perhaps we can call his actions undeniably evil and Putin himself "evil enough." Evil enough for what? Evil enough for condemnation by people of good will." (CNN : 25 July 2014) (my emphasis)

Fast forward to 2024 and, as he Telegraph reports,

"At least 51 people died when two Russian ballistic missiles hit a military academy in the central Ukrainian city of Poltava, Ukrainian officials said on Tuesday.

Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, said a military building had been “partially destroyed”, leaving people “under the rubble”.

The attack was one of the deadliest since Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in Feb 2022. Filip Pronin, Poltava’s regional governor, said on Monday afternoon that more than 200 people injured and the death toll could still rise." (The Telegraph: 4 September 2024) (my emphasis)

And whilst Putin was raining death upon hundreds of Ukrainian men, women, and children, Elena Giordano informs us that,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin warned Russian students about the dangers of vaping on Monday, saying that electronic cigarettes harm reproductive function and can lead to infertility.
...
The Russian leader was holding an open lesson entitled "Conversation about important things” at the school in Russia's southern Siberian Republic of Tyva, which opened its doors for the first time on Monday." (Politico: 2 Sepember2024) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, as reported by Newsweek, Putin stated that,

"I am sure that this provocation will fail as well. It seems to me there will be a desire to really, not in words but in deeds, move on to peace negotiations and resolve these issues by peaceful means. We have never given up on this, but we must, of course, deal with these bandits who have entered the territory of the Russian Federation," Putin said.

Putin's recent comments on negotiations sharply contrast with his initial response to Ukraine's invasion of the Kursk region. (Newsweek: 2 September 2024) (my emphasis)

Let us be reminde of the words of Alexander Motyl in 2014 viz.

"Is Putin evil? His actions certainly are, if by evil we understand behavior that willfully, consciously and purposely destroys human life."

 

 

 

(to be continued)

How much longer before Putin 'gingerly' raises the flag of peace?

It is interesting to note that there is now a panicked scramble by Putin to his 'bosom' friends in Chechnya and China as the powerful and successful Ukrainian counter-offensive in the Russian Kursk and Belgorad oblasts continue to pummel Putin's forces.

As AP reports,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday made an unscheduled trip to Chechnya, a mainly Muslim republic within the Russian Federation, his first visit in nearly 13 years, as Ukraine’s stunning cross-border incursion into western Russia entered its third week." (AP: 21 August 2024) (my emphasis)

AP: 21 August 2024

As AP also reports,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Chinese premier Li Qiang Wednesday, hailing growing trade relations as Moscow becomes increasingly dependent on Beijing for political and economic support.
....
“Chinese-Russian relations are at an unprecedentedly high level,” said Li, who earlier had met with his Russian counterpart, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin.

The meeting took place as Russia struggled to push back a Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk region now in its third week. And overnight, Moscow experienced one of the largest waves of drone attacks on the Russian capital since the start of the Ukraine conflict." (AP: 22 August 2024) (my emphasis)

 AP: 22 August 2024

All these meetings were against the background, as Devdiscourse News Desk reports,

"Ukraine reported on Wednesday the destruction of Russian pontoon bridges in Kursk region using U.S.-made weapons, a strategic move amidst their ongoing incursion into the area." (Devdiscourse: 21 August 2024) (my emphasis) 

As also reported by John Varga (right),

"Ukraine launched a huge drone attack on a major Russian airfield in the Volgograd region in the early hours of Thursday morning.
...
Ukraine has stepped up its aerial bombardment of Russia in recent weeks and months, as it seeks to disrupt Russia's war machine.

Oil refineries, airfields, air defence systems and ammunition warehouses have been remorselessly targeted in a carefully calibrated campaign." (Daily Express: 22 August 2024) (my emphasis)

More significantly, however, countering Putin's mouthpieces blustering about the use of 'nuclear' weapons, US Presidentn Biden has,

"President Joe Biden (left) has quietly approved a new US nuclear strategy focusing on China’s rapidly expanding nuclear arsenal earlier this year, a new report has revealed.

The Nuclear Employment Guidance (NEG) is designed to prepare the US for potential nuclear confrontations with Russia, China, and North Korea, The New York Times reported. The strategy takes into account the rapid expansion of China’s nuclear arsenal and ongoing threats from Russia, particularly in the context of the war in Ukraine, the report said." (Maroosha Muzaffar: The Independent: 21 Augist 2024) (my emphasis)

Which rather puts into perspective Putin's mouthpiece, Dmitry Medvedev, once again 'indirectly' threatening to use nuclear weapons in Putin's war with Ukraine.

As Guy Faulconbridge (right) writes,

"Ukraine's incursion into Russia's Kursk region means there will be no talks between Moscow and Kyiv until Ukraine is completely defeated on the battlefield, Dmitry Medvedev (below: left), deputy head of Russia's Security Council, said on Wednesday.
 ...

"They understand that there will be NO NEGOTIATIONS UNTIL THE ENEMY IS COMPLETELY AND UTTERLY DESTROYED!" (Reuters: 21 August 2024) (my emphasis)

One merely has to listen to the rantings of Stanislav Krapivnik on Russian TV to gain an insight into the 'apocalyptic' mindset of Dmitry Medvedev.

Russia Media Monitor: 18 August 2024: YouTube

The continuing counter-attack by Ukraine against Putin's forces, on Russian soil, is beginning to reach a 'near' crescendo in the political ears of Putin.

Desperately scambling to the few friends that he still has on the international political scene, such as Ramzan Kadyrov of Chechnya, Xi Jin Ping of China, and Kim Jon Un of North Korea, Putin now knows that his 'nuclear war' threats are falling on deaf ears.

How much longer before he gingerly raises the flag of peace? 

UPDATE : 24 August 2024 

Trying to keep pace with the ongoing and current developments in the Ukraine-Russia war is like running after a tornado that keeps changing direction.

Oli Smith (left) reports that,

"Olga Skabeyeva, one of the leading pro-Putin voices on Russian state TV, suggested Russia was prepared to unleash nuclear strikes if the incursion continued." (Express: 23 August 2024) (my emphasis),

whilst, 

"Sergei Chemezov, the head of the Russian state corporation which supplies Moscow with many of its arms for the war, Rostec, told Reuters news agency that the country “feels confident” at the prospect of a wider conflict" (Kate Nicholson (right): Huff Post: 21 August 2024) (my emphasis), 

and Putin is proclaiming that,

"But Chemezov is not the only person boasting about Russia’s abilities recently – Putin just told some of his troops that “we are absolutely, absolutely invincible” (Kate Nicholson: Huff Post: 21 August 2024) (my emphasis).

 Yet John Varga (left) reports that,

"Russian locals in a Siberian town are having to raise money to buy body bags for their soldiers, according to reports.

"So many Russian soldiers have been killed in the Irkutsk region that the local authorities have run out of money to transport them back to their relatives.

"Local people are now having to crowdfund for body bags and the transportation of corpses." (Express: 23 August 2024) (my emphasis)

 And as Oli Smith also reports,

"Russia's failure to stop a Ukrainian invasion of Kursk has exposed Vladimir Putin's fragile grip on the country, it has been claimed.

Western officials warned the surprise incursion, more than two and a half weeks ago, has "undermined" the Kremlin propaganda narrative that claimed a "Russian victory was inevitable". (Express: 24 August 2024) (my emphasis)

All of this comes against the background of :- 

• The United States has announced a new round of military assistance to Ukraine, following a phone call between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and US President Joe Biden. (Al Jazeera: 23 August 2024) (my emphasis) (cf. also: Joshua Posaner: Politico: 24 August 2024)
  
• Ukraine struck another huge blow against Russia's navy on Thursday after destroying and sinking a train ferry used to transport military equipment to Crimea." (John Varga: Express: 23 August 2024) (my emphasis)
• "Ukraine has launched another drone strike on an oil depot that has already been burning for six days in Russia's Rostov region, and Russians fear the blaze could reach nearby kerosene reservoirs, triggering a much larger explosion." (Newsweek: 23 August 2024) (my emphasis)

Like a raging tornado, Putin's currrent war in Ukraine is reaching a 'near' crescendo in his political ears.

Indeed, Putin is downplaying Ukraine's attacks in the Kursk and Belgorad Russian oblasts purely as a "large-scale provocation".

As Peter Dickson (left) writes,

"Russia’s propagandists are taking their lead from Putin himself. The Kremlin dictator has remained remarkably tight-lipped over Ukraine’s invasion, and has limited himself to only a handful of public statements. Notably, there have been no attempts to rally the Russian people against the invader or engage in the kind of historical grandstanding that Putin normally favors. On the contrary, he has opted for a strikingly understated approach. Putin initially branded the invasion a “large-scale provocation,” and has since compared the advancing Ukrainian army to “terrorists.” " (Atlantic Council: 21 August 2024) (my emphasis)

Yet another indication exposing Vladimir Putin's fragile grip on the country.

 

 

 

(to be continued)