Putin's nervousness ....

The dust stirred up by Putin's speech to the Russian people last Thursday (Dec. 4, 2014) has begun to settle. In his speech,

"Putin has signaled that Moscow sees the world as a hostile place." (Stratfor-analysts : Marketwatch Dec. 5, 2014)

Countering this perceived 'hostility', Putin peppered his speech with fervent Russian nationalist sentiments, as when regarding the [Ukrainian] Crimea as having,

" ... sacral importance for Russia, like the Temple Mount in Jerusalem for the followers of Islam and Judaism." (Kremlin : Dec. 4, 2014) which has, no doubt, stirred up greater nationalist passions in the breasts of many Russian people.

In effect, Putin can be said to have fired the first salvo in putting Russia on an economic 'war-footing' as sanctions begin to bite deeper, and the price of a barrel of oil continues its downward spiral. As reported in the Asian Tribune,

 "The situation in Russia, meanwhile, is quite bleak too: rouble is in free fall; economy is on the brink of sliding into recession; the West is determined to impose more punitive sanction in proportion to the scale of [the] incursion in Eastern Ukraine." ( Sun, 2014-07-12)

Against this backdrop, as reported by Vladimir Soldatkin of  Reuters,

"French President Francois Hollande ..  during his stopover at a Moscow airport after a trip to Kazakhstan ... said after  crisis talks with Vladimir Putin on Saturday that a ceasefire could take hold in eastern Ukraine in the next few days. ....

Putin, who looked nervous before he greeted Hollande with a handshake, said they had held detailed discussions on ending the violence in which more than 4,300 people have been killed in mainly Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine since April." (Sat Dec 6, 2014) (my emphasis)

There are 3 points that need to be emphasised at this stage:

• Hollande arrived in Moscow from Kazakhstan
• after the 'crisis' talks with Putin, Hollande spoke of a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine that 'could' take hold next week 

•  Putin was nervous before he greeted Hollande

Firstly, "[w]hat Putin is doing in Ukraine is also having repercussions in Kazakhstan, a member of Putin's Eurasian Economic Union.

As reported by Abdujalil Abdurasulov (BBC: 9 November 2014) from northern Kazakhstan,

"The crisis in Ukraine has prompted many [in Kazakhstan]  to ask who the Russian community in Kazakhstan would support if relations with Moscow turned sour." (ibid Abdujalil Abdurasulov) (my emphasis). Why is this so?

Secondly, why are we to believe that Putin may finally order his proxies in eastern Ukraine to adhere to a 'ceasefire' next week when, even after that Minsk Agreement of  5 September 2014, Putin has continued to supply the rebels in eastern Ukraine with both weapons and Russian soldiers, and who have simply trampled all over the Minsk 'ceasefire' agreement with his blessing? 

And finally, why was 'strongman' Putin nervous before greeting Hollande, especially after that blistering 'tough-guy' nationalist speech that he gave to the Russian people but a few days ago?

It would be an exercise in futility to try and second-guess any answers to these questions. After all, the pivot upon which the world of diplomacy rotates is the devious art of concealment. All that we can do is simply to 'flag' them up.

Whilst these question remain unanswered, ALL the people of  Ukraine are suffering because of the war that has been instituted by Russia between itself and Ukraine.

There is a serious electricity crisis in Ukraine, brought about partly by the breakdown in receiving coal from South Africa due to,

"[t]he head of a Ukrainian state energy firm  ... been arrested on suspicion of embezzlement in relation to the [coal] deal [with South Africa]. Ukraine’s coal mining has been disrupted by separatist conflict, and the the absence of Russian gas imports since June has resulted in country-wide mass electricity cuts [INCLUDING CRIMEA]. That is why the government turned to South Africa to boost supplies, but the imported coal turned out to be unfit for purpose." (Yahoo News : Dec. 6, 2014) (my emphasis)

Ukraine has now been forced,

" to ask Russia to supply electricity to make up for energy shortages caused by the loss of control to pro-Russian separatists of the country's coal-producing east."

But Russia will only supply Ukraine with electricity,
" if Kiev diverted some of the supplies to Crimea -- a strategic peninsula that Russia invaded and annexed in March."

To which Ukraine has responded,

"That is their condition," Demchyshyn told reporters. "We are not importing any electricity from Russia right now."(World | Agence France-Presse | Updated: December 06, 2014)

Meanwhile, in Donetsk and other rebel-held territories in eastern Ukraine,

"[w]inter ... is likely to be harsh for those who have remained, as industry has ground to a halt, military confrontation continues and supplies of food and energy are unreliable.
The separatist authorities have a dilemma: they have declared independence from Ukraine, but unlike with the Crimea peninsula, Russia has shown little appetite for formally taking over the east. This leaves the rebel authorities unsure where to turn for the cash to dole out benefits, pensions and other payments." (The Guardian, Wednesday 26 November 2014) (my emphasis)  Added to which, it is also suffering from electricity problems.

Furthermore, the UNHCR has

"... [opened up] a network of UNHCR-sponsored collective centres in Ukraine where aid workers distribute essential supplies to some of the 490,000 people uprooted by the fighting and forced to seek shelter elsewhere in the country. (Rafał Kostrzyński in Kharkiv, Ukraine : 04 December 2014) (my emphasis)


If the Ukrainians are suffering from hardships due to a lack of electricity and warmth during the onset of the freezing winter months; Russians are also facing hardships on the front of spiralling food prices and increasing economic uncertainties.

Worryingly are the price rises of  those staple Russian foods produced by Russia itself.
 
 "Among the specific products hit the hardest, fresh tomato prices rose by 35%, white cabbage by 24%, and potatoes by 21%. But the biggest rise of all was recorded in buckwheat, with average prices soaring by more than 50% in the year to November. Since Russia produces most of this staple itself, this is not down to sanctions, at least directly." (Reuters/Mikhail Voskresensky : December 5, 2014)

The critical question is this,

"How, exactly, does Putin sleep at night knowing that his actions are the cause of all this suffering? Was that 'nervousness' when he greeted Hollande yesterday, a tiny glimmer of remorse for all the suffering that he has caused? Or was it due to something completely different."

(to be continued)

Putin's speech and Ukraine

In my last blog-entry (4 Dec. 2014) I ended by saying,

"We now await to hear what Putin will be saying at his annual address to the Russian people today"

Vera Putina

But before we consider some of the highlights of his speech (Dec. 4, 2014) which could, indeed, have been written by Stalin himself, let us pause for a moment to listen to the words of   Vera Putina, who has always claimed to be his real mother.

 

Before his annual address to the Russian people, US Secretary of State John Kerry met with Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov in Swizerland. Kerry had this to say about the active Russian involvement in eastern Ukraine prior to their meeting,

"The result is damage to its credibility, and its own citizens wind up paying a steep economic and human price, including the price of hundreds of Russian soldiers who fight and die in a country where they had and have no right to be.” (Michael R. Gordon : Dec. 4, 2014)

In contrast Putin, in his speech, said that,

"How can the subsequent attempts to suppress people in Ukraine’s southeast, who oppose this mayhem, [the ousting of Putin's puppet, Yanukovich] be supported? I reiterate that there was no way we could endorse these developments. What’s more, they were followed by hypocritical statements on the protection of international law and human rights." (December 4, 2014, 13:20 The Kremlin, Moscow) (my emphasis)

                                 

Putin further went on to say that,

"I propose a full amnesty for capital returning to Russia. I stress, full amnesty.
Of course, it is essential to explain to the people who will make these decisions what full amnesty means. It means that if a person legalises his holdings and property in Russia, he will receive firm legal guarantees that he will not be summoned to various agencies, including law enforcement agencies, that they will not “put the squeeze” on him, that he will not be asked about the sources of his capital and methods of its acquisition, that he will not be prosecuted or face administrative liability, and that he will not be questioned by the tax service or law enforcement agencies. Let’s do this now, but only once. Everyone who wants to come to Russia should be given this opportunity. (ibid Kremlin) (my emphasis)

In other words, those who stole money from the Russian people will get away with it! This is an amnesty for Russian criminals.

Even more frightening were his remarks about Crimea.

"It was in Crimea, in the ancient city of Chersonesus or Korsun, as ancient Russian chroniclers called it, that Grand Prince Vladimir was baptised before bringing Christianity to Rus. ... All of this allows us to say that Crimea, the ancient Korsun or Chersonesus, and Sevastopol have invaluable civilisational and even sacral importance for Russia, like the Temple Mount in Jerusalem for the followers of Islam and Judaism.

And this is how we will always consider it." (ibid Kremlin) (my emphasis)

Patriarch Kirill

But it is not only Crimea. This is the mind-set with which Putin views the WHOLE of Ukraine, given that,

"In 988 by the order of the Grand Prince Vladimir I of Kiev (St. Vladimir or Volodymyr), the city residents baptized en-masse in the Dnieper river, an event that symbolized the Baptism of Kievan Rus'." (Wikipedia)

This is why he is more than willing to trample all over international law with regard to Ukraine, seeing it merely as hypocritical statements mouthed by those who are supporting Ukraine in its quest to break free from Russian domination.

At the same time, Putin has the effrontery to say that,

"What was this Ukrainian tragedy for? Wasn’t it possible to settle all the issues, even disputed issues, through dialogue, within a legal framework and legitimately?" (ibid Kremlin) (my emphasis)

Has he forgotten about the Minsk Agreement, just as he 'forgot' that he publicly stole that ring from Robert Kraft?

"“You know, I do not remember either Mr. Kraft or the ring," Putin said, as reported by AFP."

                                   

Perhaps, more interestingly, as reported by Shaun Walker in The Guardian yesterday,

""The latest skirmishes in volatile Chechnya will be seen as a major affront to President Vladimir Putin who is set to deliver his annual state of the nation address later in the day."

How interesting that Putin included Chechnya in his address yesterday. It must be giving him a headache.

"These “rebels” showed up in Chechnya again. I'm sure the local guys, the local law enforcement authorities, will take proper care of them. They are now working to eliminate another terrorist raid. Let’s support them." (ibid Kremlin)

But the critical question is whether the new cease-fire proposed by Ukraine president Poroshenko will actually hold.

"President Petro Poroshenko said troops would observe a "day of silence" on Tuesday to try to kick-start the Minsk deal. Rebel leaders were quoted by the RIA news agency as agreeing." (BBC News : 4 December 2014)

We can but wait and see. Meanwhile, could I urge readers to read Putin's speech.

(to be continued)

Putin's week in politics

Harold Wilson, former Prime Minister of Great Britain, said in 1964 that, "A week is a long time in politics"

The late Harold Wilson

Political decisions surrounding Putin's invasion-strategy of eastern Ukraine changes hourly, and is spread around the globe within minutes.

• Dec 1, 2014 : Ukrainian government troops and Russian-backed separatist forces in the Luhansk region have agreed on a new ceasefire, international monitors said. (Peter Leonard in Kiev: The Scotsman)

•  Dec 2, 2014 :  Jens Stoltenberg, the NATO chief, said on Tuesday that they agreed to activate four trust funds which will help pay to upgrade Ukraine's logistics, cyber warfare, command and control and medical services, and added a fifth to support wounded Ukrainian soldiers.

•  Dec 2, 2014 : Russian President Vladimir Putin clearly knows his classics in battle strategy as he is applying the proverb “The enemy of my enemy is my friend” with his overtures to Turkey about a gas supply line in a standoff with the European Union over Ukraine, laying bare the political weakness of the block. ( Marcel Michelson  : Forbes :02/12/2014)

• Dec 3, 2014 : There is a scare at a nuclear plant in Ukraine. "Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk provoked further concern today when he referred to the incident during a Cabinet meeting". ( Simon Tomlinson for MailOnline)

• Dec 3, 2014 : A new round of negotiations may be staged next week involving representatives of the rebels, Ukraine, Russia and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, former Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma said in televised remarks. Russia continues to destabilize its neighbor and undermine stability in the region, North Atlantic Treaty Organization Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters in Brussels. (Kateryna Choursina and Ian Wishart : Bloomberg) (my emphasis)

•  Dec 3, 2014 : U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry will meet Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov today in Basel, Switzerland.(ibid Kateryna Choursina and Ian Wishart)

Marking a year since the start of protests

•  Dec 4, 2014 : Just 5 hours ago the BBC reported that, "Russia is suffering badly as a result of Western economic sanctions - but Ukraine's situation is far worse, with a predicted fall in GDP of 7% this year." (Anatol Lieven)

• Dec 4, 2014 : As reported by Deutsche Welle, "Amid growing economic woes and heightening tensions with the West over the conflict in eastern Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin is due to hold his annual address to the nation on Thursday in the Kremlin's St. George's Hall."

Sanctions against Russia being felt by Russian Middle Class

"In what will be his eleventh annual speech, (Dec 4, 2014) Putin is expected to address his country's declining economy, in light of Western sanctions over the Ukraine crisis and retaliatory Russian import bans." (ibid Deutsche Welle)

For Putin, however, a new headache for him has emerged.

"Several police died in clashes with militants who attacked a traffic post in the Chechen capital, Grozny, and then stormed a building housing local media, Russian officials said on Thursday." (Dec 3, 2014)

"The latest skirmishes in volatile Chechnya will be seen as a major affront to President Vladimir Putin who is set to deliver his annual state of the nation address later in the day." ( Agence France-Presse in Moscow : The guardian.com, Thursday 4 December 2014)

The Press House in flames in Grozny, Chechnya

To fully understand just how angry Putin must be over the sight of these burning buildings in Grozny, the capital of Chenchnya, it should be borne in mind that,

" ..... Russia fought two wars over the past 20 years in Chechnya, the last one following Putin's bombing of flats in Moscow and then blaming it on the muslim Chechen terrorists."

Ironically, it was the late Boris Berezovsky who exposed those 1999 killings in Moscow flats as having the fingerprints of Putin and the FSB all over it.

The late Boris Berezovsky

                                             

Who's the real terrorist? Bombings in Russia, Vladimir Putin's rise, Chechnya war documentary

It was this 1999 Chechen war that really set in motion the law-and-order 'tough-guy image'  of  Putin, an image that would stand him in good stead with the Russian public during the presidential elections of 2000. Since then, this image that he has assiduously cultivated over the years, and that is so popular with the Russian people, simply cannot be undermined by either the Ukrainians or the Chechens.

It would really seem that Harold Wilson was correct when he said that, "A week in politics is a long time."

We now await to hear what Putin will be saying at his annual address to the Russian people today.

(to be continued)

Is Putin preparing for a winter invasion of Ukraine?

In yesterday's blog entry I pointed out that Putin was wooing former east European countries, especially Hungary, to give the green light to his South Stream project so that he could by-pass Ukraine in shipping gas to the EU. Subsequently,


"...  Hungary’s lawmakers recently voted to go forward with the South Stream project" thus ignoring the EU's blocking of the pipeline transiting EU member countries.

The EU has, in this instance, heeded the call of Arseniy Yatsenyuk (current PM of Ukraine) on June 3, 2014  for the European Union  ..... to block Russian South Stream gas pipeline . (Sputnik International: 03.06.2014)

Arseniy Yatsenyuk Арсеній Яценюк

"We call on the European Union to block the South Stream. Ukraine is a reliable transit country, we have fulfilled and will continue to fulfil our obligations," Yatsenyuk told the parliament." (Sputnik International: 03.06.2014) (my emphasis)

Yatsenyuk Urges EU to Block Russia's South Stream Pipeline

Yesterday (Dec. 1, 2014) Suzan Fraser and Vladimir Isachenkov, reported from Ankara that,

"Amid spiraling tensions with the West, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced Monday (Dec. 1, 2014) that Moscow is spiking a multibillion dollar gas pipeline project for southern Europe and will focus instead on boosting its energy ties with Turkey." (my emphasis)

Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) and President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan during a meeting in the Presidential Palace in Ankara December 1, 2014. (RIA Novosti / Michael Klimentyev)

There is something rather prophetic in this deepening economic relationship between  Erdogan and Putin, between Turkey and Russia. Turkey is already the 2nd largest trading partner with Russia, closely behind Putin's favoured nation, Germany.

As also in the case of the recent 2nd big gas deal struck between China and Russia, Putin is trying to pre-empt falling future sales of gas to EU countries by striking these deals with Turkey and China.

Russia's President Vladimir Putin (L)  shakes hands with China's President Xi Jinping

However, as Andrew Roth (Reuters:Dec. 1, 2014) points out,

"Gazprom has estimated its sales from the eastern route over 30 years will amount to $400 billion, but the collapse in oil prices may cut that figure.

"The price of Russian gas is linked to that of oil. Since May, the value of the Chinese contract shrank to $300 billion. The low price of oil complicates the price negotiation," said Mikhail Korchemkin, a director of U.S.-based consultancy East European Gas Analysis."

Is it because of this diplomatic defeat over the South Stream gas pipeline that Putin, whom we all know carries a grudge forever, will intensify both the arming of the rebels in eastern Ukraine and also increase the amount of Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine as the prelude to a pre-emptive push against the Ukrainian army in Mariupol? Is this the real motive behind Putin's recent huge TROJAN 'humanitarian aid convoy' that has recently arrived in Donetsk?

Already Russia's military intentions for Ukraine's annexed Crimea is causing consternation amongst NATO members. The build-up of Russian and rebel forces to attack Mariupol, thus creating a land-bridge between rebel-held territory and Russian occupied Crimea, is critical for Putin.

                         

As  Jeremy Bender (Business Insider:Nov. 13, 2014) reported,

"Ivan Lozowy, a policy analyst based in Kiev, believes that the seizure of Mariupol and the creation of the land bridge is a top priority for Putin. However, any battle for Mariupol is likely to be drawn out and bloody. "

It is therefore becoming critical that Ukraine begins to receive military aid. Already, as tweeted by the Ukrainian Ambassador to Canada Prystaiko,

" ... a plane with Canadian military aid onboard has departed for Ukraine." (Interfax-Ukraine: 28.11.2014)
                             
 Furthermore,

(Reuters: Wed Nov 26, 2014) - Lithuania may supply weapons to Ukraine as part of military aid it promised to help Kiev fight pro-Russian separatists, the Lithuanian defense minister told Reuters in an interview on Wednesday.

Added to which,

"Having reluctantly concluded that it will not get the assistance it needs from NATO as a whole, the Ukrainian government is seeking to obtain it by developing military ties with Lithuania and Poland, a move both Vilnius and Warsaw appear receptive to, according to “Nezavisimaya gazeta.” (EuroMaidan Press: 26/11/2014)

                                

Is the stage been set for all out war between Ukraine and Russia?

(to be continued)

Putins Trojan 'humanitarian' aid

Winter has finally arrived, and Putin is sending more than a hundred UNAUTHORISED trucks of so-called 'humanitarian' aid into Donetsk. Reuters (Dec. 1st, 2014) reports that,

"Ukraine said on Sunday that a convoy of 106 vehicles had entered its eastern territory from Russia without Kiev's permission and accused Moscow of once again using humanitarian aid shipments to send weapons and ammunition to separatist rebels." (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, the Canadian Prime Minister, Stephen Harper, re-affirms (30 Nov., 2014) his support for Ukraine,

Stephen Harper

and stated that whilst the rest of the world realised that the Cold War was over, it was like a splinter in the mind of Putin, driving him into a 'criminal' frenzy of unbelief that those ex-Soviet eastern European countries could actually have, themselves, choosen to look westward for their futures.

"Putin has criticized the U.S. and European Union nations for encroaching into former communist Europe, including Ukraine, saying they pose a threat to Russia’s national security." (Halia Pavliva and Elena Popina: Bloomberg: Nov 30, 2014) 

Vladimir Putin, Russia's President, has criticized the U.S. and European Union nations for encroaching into former communist Europe, including Ukraine, saying they pose a threat to Russia’s national security.

To ease the pain of this 'splinter in the mind of"  Putin,

"New Russian propaganda is getting exceptionally creative. In fact, the bag of tricks Putin uses to twist, turn, manipulate and suck countries in Eastern Europe back into the Russian orbit is wide-ranging. There’s brute force, of course, but Ukraine is not a one-off. We seem to forget that Putin invaded Georgia a half dozen years ago and, like Crimea, annexed the country’s provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.",

as Jeffrey Gedmin (November 30, 2014) in his 'Letter from Prague' explains. (my emphasis)

In the forefront of Putin 'sucking Eastern European countries back into Russia's orbit' is the South Stream gas pipeline.
 
" The United States and the EU pressured Bulgaria this summer to quit the project, which Russia wants because it ends Gazprom’s dependence on Ukraine’s gas-transit system. But this did not deter Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has followed his own accommodationist line toward Russia over Ukraine and even declared this summer that Putin’s Russia was a model of a successful country. Hungary’s lawmakers recently voted to go forward with the South Stream project." (ibid Jeffrey Gedmin)

Victor Orban, Hungarian Prime Minister

If Putin thinks that he could chalk this up to success in wooing former Eastern European countries into Russia's orbit, he should think again!

OIL PRICES ARE GOING TO TUMBLE!

Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Willem Buiter, chief economist at Citigroup, discusses tumbling oil prices as OPEC declines to reduce output . (Bloomberg Surveillance.)

Gas sales to the EU are NOT going to be able to compensate for the loss of revenue from falling oil prices, currently estimated at $100 billion.

""We are losing around $40 billion per year due to geopolitical sanctions and we are losing some $90 to $100 billion per year due to oil prices falling 30 percent," Siluanov said in a speech at an economic forum in Moscow, quoted by RIA Novosti news agency." (AFP : Nov. 24, 2014) (my emphasis)

Finance Minister Anton Siluanov

Is it any wonder that the Soviet-dyed-in-the-wool Foreign Minister of Russia, Sergey Lavrov, is 

"....accus[ing] the West  ...... of attempting to achieve "regime change" in Russia through sanctions that aim to destroy the economy and rouse public protests." (Sky News : Monday 24 November 2014)

Sergey Lavrov

Is, therefore, this upping of the military stakes by Putin, his strategy to galvanise the Russian people onto a war footing against the West? Is this why he is reinforcing his troops in Donetsk, and supplying them with military hardware, food, and medical equipment?  

And he wants the world to believe that this is 'humanitarian' aid for the people of Donetsk?

Let us not forget what he did to the people of St. Petersburg in 1992, when they were on the verge of starving and he bamboozled them out of $100 million that was supposed to be providing them with food.

"In 1992, Putin was investigated for a deal he oversaw while an official in the mayor’s office. The deal involved the export of $100m worth of raw materials in exchange for food for the citizens of St Petersburg. The materials were exported, but the food never arrived." (April 19, 2012 by Maeve McClenaghan)

The late Marine Salye

(to be continued)

Putin, Merkel, Hollande, and Renzi, and sanctions against Russia

In a speech to open the 50th Munich Security Conference  held on 31 January 2014, Federal President Joachim Gauck proclaimed that,


"I have to admit that while there are genuine pacifists in Germany, there are also people who use Germany’s guilt for its past as a shield for laziness or a desire to disengage from the world. In the words of the historian Heinrich August Winkler, this is an attitude that grants Germany a questionable "right to look the other way, which other Western democracies" cannot claim for themselves. Restraint can thus be taken too far if people start making special rules for themselves. Whenever that happens, I will criticise it." (Federal President Joachim Gauck) (my emphasis)

Federal President Joachim Gauck : 31st January, 2014

Guack was arguing that the 'Ostpolitik' instituted by the SPD member Willy Brandt when he was Chancellor of Germany during the 1970's, and that is still fervently clung to by Merkel and the SDP member Steinmeier, has now become defunct.

Willy Brandt

The world has changed, he argues, and Germany must,

" ..... not turn a blind eye, not run from threats, but instead stand firm, not forget, neglect or betray universal values, but instead uphold these values together with our friends and partners. Let us be seen to be living by them, let us defend them." (ibid  Federal President Joachim Gauck) (my emphasis)

Germany under Merkel’s stewardship is leading European efforts to mediate the conflict [in Ukraine]. Thus have the words of Joachim Gauck fallen on deaf ears. As he so eloquently states,

"Now, some people in my country consider "international responsibility" to be a euphemism, veiling what’s really at stake. Some think that in reality Germany would have to pay more. Others think that Germany would have to send in more soldiers. And they are all convinced that "more responsibility" primarily means more trouble. You will not be surprised to hear that I see things differently." (ibid  Federal President Joachim Gauck) (my emphasis)

Steinmeier                                                       Merkel

How prescient of Guack! Thus,

"Steinmeier said, “One of the problems is that many people aren’t having a dialogue [with Putin]. That’s not true of the Germans.”

Furthermore,

"Germany can’t declare Russia, its “rather large neighbor,” a friend or enemy, Steinmeier said. Officials in the 28-member EU who argue for ratcheting up sanctions because they’re working suffer from a “dangerous misunderstanding.” (Brian Parkin and Patrick Donahue : Bloomber : Nov. 27, 2014)

The duo of Merkel and Steinmeier simply cannot break away from Willy Brandt's 1970's 'Ostpolitik' mentality which, in face of what Putin is doing in Ukraine, is nothing more nor less than clinging to the OUTDATED belief that,

" ..... Germany’s [Ostpolik] foreign policy has long since found the right formula. That there is not much to adjust, never mind change. Why fix something if it isn’t broken?" (ibid  Federal President Joachim Gauck)

What is rather dangerous about Merkel and Steinmeier shielding behind the OUTDATED 'Ostpolitik' of Willy Brandt is that Italy and France, in particular, are doing exactly the same by shielding themselves behind Merkel and Steinmeier!

Franscoise Hollande                                           Matteo Renzi                     

And all of this, even in light of Putin's oligarch, Roman Popov, recently bankrolling Marine le Pen's 'Front Nationale' to the tune of  $11.3 million, besides Putin actively supporting other RIGHT-WING parties in the EU. (Nov. 27, 2014: UT)

It really beggars belief that Merkel, Hollande, and Renzi, three critical players in EU foreign policy towards Ukraine, can sit back whilst Putin and Popov bankrolls the right-wing 'fascist' parties in their countries.

So what, really, is behind German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier stating that,

"Germany wants to avoid wrecking Russia’s economy with sanctions imposed in the conflict over Ukraine .." ? (ibid Brian Parkin and Patrick Donahue)

Rather cynically one could say that Steinmeier does not give a fig about what Putin is doing to Ukraine, as long as it does NOT affect all those German exports to Putin's Russia.

Why? Because

"Earlier this week, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said lower oil prices and Western financial sanctions will cost Russia around $130 billion-$140 billion a year, equivalent to around 7 percent of its economy." (Vladimir Soldatkin and Robin Emmott : Reuters : Sat Nov 29, 2014) (my emphasis) 

President Vladmir Putin (L) speaks with Finance Minister Anton Siluanov

This is why,

"Russia urged the European Union on Saturday (Nov. 29,2014) to lift sanctions against Moscow and promised to waive its food embargo, but a top EU official rejected such a move as the bloc imposed fresh measures on Ukrainian rebels." (ibid Soldatkin and Emmott)

In other words Putin is finally well aware that sanctions are bringing the Russian economy to its knees, just as Steinmeier knows that this is also having a devastating effect on the German economy as well.

 Unfortunately for Steinmeier,

"Jean-Claude Juncker, the new president of the European Commission, said Russia's annexation of Ukraine's Crimea region in March left Europe with two options: go to war against Russia or impose economic sanctions.

"If you don't want a war the only possibility is sanctions ... You have to take sanctions that produce an effect," Juncker told RTL radio in Luxembourg, his home country." (ibid Soldatkin and Emmott)  (my emphasis)

Jean-Claude Juncker

(to be continued)

Putin's South Ossetia and Abkhazia ploy towards Ukraine

Why is the German Government of Angela Merkel almost pathologically,

" ... alarmed by President Petro Poroshenko’s plan to hold a referendum on Ukraine joining NATO, seeing it as a dead end that would only inflame tensions with Russia."? (Patrick Donahue, Arne Delfs and Ilya Arkhipov: Bloomberg News:26 Nov., 2014)

And not only the government of Angela Merkel. Even the French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius has recently said on France Inter radio (Nov. 25, 2014) that,

“In recent days there have been a number of statements from the Ukraine side that have not helped,”  (ibid Donahue, Delfs, and Arkhipov) Not helped what?

M. Laurent Fabius, French Minister of Foreign Affairs

The article does not quite say why there are these 'alarms', but one can almost guess that underlying all these 'alarms' on the part of the Germans and the French is their fear about the almost totally unpredictable nature of Putin in this current critical situation between the armies of Russia and Ukraine.    

At the 20th NATO Summit in Bucharest (2008), 

NATO said [that] Russia will have no veto on membership for the two ex-Soviet allies, but many members are loathe to provoke a further row with Moscow on top of a dispute over US plans to place missile defence equipment in the Czech Republic and Poland. (Staff Writers: Berlin (AFP) March 10, 2008)

At this Summit,

"Merkel helped block a U.S. push to put Ukraine on a path to eventual NATO membership in 2008. Last week, [Nov. 17, 2014]  she said she hadn’t changed her mind because beckoning Ukraine into the military alliance [NATO] is “qualitatively different” from bringing the former Soviet republic closer to the European Union" (ibid Donahue, Delfs, and Arkhipov)

Merkel in 2008

Putin in 2008

"Russian President Putin was pleased [in 2008] about the alliance (Merkel?) deciding not to invite Georgia and Ukraine to the Membership Action Plan at least for the time being." (Wikipedia) This was just before Medvedev was elected president of Russia in March of 2008.

Then in August 2008, Russia under President Medvedev invades Georgia, ostensibly to protect the pro-Russian separatist entities of South Ossetia and Abkhazia who were claiming independence from Georgia. (Wikipedia)

    Dmitriy Medvedev                                           Georgian war

Is this past invasion of Georgia by Russia in 2008 now haunting the Germans and the French? They gave in to Putin in 2008, and now that he's back in the presidential 'saddle' 6 years later, their fears of him are practically bubbling over. Because what is now happening in eastern Ukraine, especially in light of  Poroshenko's current plan to hold a referendum on Ukraine joining NATO, is a total repetition of what Medvedev (or was the puppet-master Putin pulling his strings) did to Georgia in 2008. What is now happening in South Ossetia, Abkhazia, and Crimea, is a taste of things to come in the rebel-held territories of eastern Ukraine lest Putin is stopped.

Now Putin is expanding the Russian military presence in South Ossetia. As reported in the Daily Sabah ( Nov. 28, 2014),

"A new integration treaty is set to be signed between Russia and South Ossetia in order to develop bilateral relations, primarily extending Russian military assistance to the breakaway territory .....thus deepening ties between the separatist enclave and the Moscow government."

Putin in South Ossetia

In  Abkhazia things have moved much further down the line of absorbing it into Putin's Russia. 

In a treaty recently signed between Vladimir Putin and Abkhazian President Raul Khajimba,

"Russia is to fund a 3-year modernization of the Abkhazian army and establish a joint Russian-Abkhazian force. It will also erect defenses along Abkhazia’s border with Georgia to discourage aggression in the future."  (RT: November 25, 2014)

Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) meets Abkhazian President Raul Khajimba on November 24, 2014

Furthermore,

"Abkhazia’s capital, Sukhum, will work to harmonize its local legislation with the norms of the Eurasian Economic Union, an early EU-like integration project that currently includes Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Armenia. Kyrgyzstan is considering joining the union."(ibid RT)

Georgian President Giorgi Margvelashvili has claimed that the signed document brings the talks between Russia and Georgia to a deadlock. (Mushvig Mehdiyev: Azernews: 28 November 2014) 

Georgian President Giorgi Margvelashvili

"The treaty, in fact, annexes Georgia's territory to Russia's military, political, social and economic space and turns Abkhazia into part of the Russia territory. That agreement grossly violates the international law," Margvelashvili said. (ibid Mushvig Mehdiyev)

Meanwhile, inside Crimea,

"MailOnline found the desperate region - formerly a bustling tourist resort - preparing for a winter of food shortages, soaring prices, and power cuts. But much more chillingly we found evidence of people being killed for speaking Ukrainian, hounded for being Muslim Tatars and fear even among the residents who support Putin." (Will Stewart And Tanya Sokolova In Crimea For Mailonline: 27 November 2014)

Hounded in the street: MailOnline witnessed firsthand the crackdown in Crimea as this woman was stopped and searched by police who are accused of harassing anyone who opposes Putin (ibid Will Stewart And Tanya Sokolova)

Even Gerard Depardieu, a famous ally of Vladimir Putin, who was asked to become deputy agriculture minister of Crimea, the invaded and annexed region of  Ukrainian , did not accept because of the problems there. (ibid Will Stewart And Tanya Sokolova)

Gerard Depardieu and Vladimir Putin,

As in the case of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Putin is also frantically militarizing Crimea.

“We are very concerned with the militarization of Crimea. We are concerned that the capabilities in Crimea that are being installed will bring an effect on almost the entire Black Sea” (Christof Lehmann  quoting Major Breedlove: NSNBC : Thu, Nov 27th, 2014)

U.S. General Philip Breedlove, NATO Supreme Allied Commander (Kyiv, Nov. 26, 2014)

Are all these militaristic actions of Putin in South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Crimea, and the rebel-held territories of eastern Ukraine, part of his greater scheme of restoring Russia to its former Soviet Union status in the world? Or is it, as stated in a recent blog entry, that Putin is truly suffering from a 'god-complex', and that this is how it is expressing itself.

Putin addressing Religious Leaders

If so, then it should come as no surprise to anyone that,

"[he] is accused of stealing wine from Crimea's world famous Massandra wine cellars for the best vintages after his victorious occupation in February", and that he wanted the vintner, or wine-maker, Gerard Depardieu, to become deputy agriculture minister of the invaded and annexed region of  Ukrainian Crimea. (ibid Will Stewart And Tanya Sokolova)

Crimea's world famous Massandra wine cellars

Is it, therefore, as Ian Birrell suggests, that,

"The response of western leaders is to pose as tough guys on the public stage while preparing to impose a few minor sanctions on separatists and some Putin cronies. They hope that pressure on Russia’s economy will prevent further escalation, although this might make Putin even more unpredictable. Meanwhile, Moscow continues to ramp up military spending, just as it has done from the moment that Putin, this former KGB apparatchik with Tsarist ambitions, took office – while the Baltic states (members of Nato, remember) grow ever more anxious."? (The Guardian, Thursday 27 November 2014) (my emphasis)

Ian Birrell

One cannot but agree with Ian Birrell's rather succinct analysis of the behaviour of the likes of Merkel and the French Foreign Minister, Laurent Fabius, towards Putin's dangerous escalating of the military confrontation between the Ukrainian and Russian armies in eastern Ukraine.

(to be continued)

Is Putin succeeding in sowing seeds of dissention in the EU and globally?

The rapid and speeding escalation with which events are unfolding over Putin's invasion of Ukraine is now forcing many EU politicians to publicly backtrack on their covert support of Putin. But is this really so?

Previously,

• Merkel has spoken to [Putin] by phone three dozen times. Her Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, a member of the Social Democrats (SPD), traditionally a Russia-friendly party, has invested hundreds of hours trying to secure a negotiated solution to the conflict. ( Noah Barkin and Andreas Rinke: Reuters: Tue Nov 25, 2014) (my emphasis)
• M. Laurent Fabius, French Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Development, speaking about the Russian-French Mistral contract– "No. It’s a contract which was signed in 2011; it was another government, but it doesn’t much matter. There’s a rule which applies internationally as well as nationally: contracts which have been signed and, moreover, paid, must be honoured." (Embassy of  France in London: 22 July 2014) (my emphasis)

M. Laurent Fabius, French Minister of Foreign Affairs

•  Some EU politicians, such as Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, have been openly scornful of sanctions and these countries are likely to push for an easing of sanctions next week. (Previous blog entry) (my emphasis)

Robert Fico, Slovak Prime Minister

These are but a few of the critical decisions that have previously been taken by EU governments in relation to the crisis in Ukraine. And of course there have been EU countries who have always supported the Ukrainian people in their struggle to cast off the yoke of their subservience to Putin's Russia, including the Baltic States, Poland, and especially Great Britain.

What is rather frightening is that Matteo Renzi, Italy's Prime Minister, has throughout this crisis been conspicuous by his TOTAL silence in condemning Putin's invasion of Ukraine. Let us not forget that Italy is one of the key economies of the Euro Zone, and that,

"Italy, now currently the Head of the Council of the EU, "has oodles of money invested in Russia, of which Putin is well aware. That is why Putin has said that he has “... high hopes that Italy will give a new impetus to the development of relations between Russia and the European Union”, as reported in Ria Novosti on the 17^th April 2014." (Previous blog entry)

To the current Italian Head of the Council of the EU we can now add the 'fragrant' soft-on-Russia Italian, Federica Mogherini, EU Foreign Secretary.

                         The 'fragrant' Federica Mogherini                                 Matteo Renzi                                            

Today, the 26th November, 2014, things seemed to have changed somewhat.

• The Czech Republic should not tell Ukraine what kind of future to choose, the former minister of foreign affairs, Lubomír Zaorálek, said on Tuesday, [25th November, 2014] hours after Czech President Milos Zeman said Ukraine should remain neutral and not join NATO. Speaking after a meeting in Prague with his Lithuanian counterpart, Linas Linkevičius, Mr. Zaorálek said Ukraine should itself decide in a sovereign manner on its future direction.
•  Noah Barkin and Andreas Rinke report that, "Merkel has hit a diplomatic dead-end with Putin" (Reuters: 25th Nov., 2014) She is willing to continue with sanctions even though it will hurt German industry. At the same time, "Matthias Platzeck, a former leader of the [SOFT ON RUSSIA] German SPD, broke ranks earlier this month and urged Germany to recognize Russia's annexation of Crimea." (ibid Noah Barkin) 
•  
  
  

• France will not hand over the first of two state-of-the-art warships built for the Russians until Moscow halts its military action in Ukraine, the Elysée Palace has announced. (Kim Willsher: Tuesday 25 November 2014) (my emphasis) 
• Yevhen Perebyinis, Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman, told journalists that a total of 85 vehicles had been detected in the five columns that entered at the Izvaryne border crossing point from Russia on Monday. "Up to six of these were heavy armored transporters. The rest were vehicles and buses carrying [Russian] fighters and ammunition," he said. (Reuters: Tue Nov 25, 2014)

The above bullet-points indicate that Putin's strategy to cause dissention amongst members of the EU seems to be working, that he has many influential supporters within the EU, and that his aim to particularly isolate Britain and the US from the EU stance since they are advocating that stronger action against him be taken to confront his growing militaristic adventurism against NATO, seems to also be working. Only the Baltic NATO members are siding with the US and Britain.

"Lithuania’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Linas Linkevičius, as part of the delegation led by President Dalia Grybauskaitė, visited Kyiv on 24 November. During the visit, Lithuania’s Foreign Minister met with Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Pavlo Klimkin to discuss the situation in Ukraine, bilateral cooperation and partnership within international organisations." (November 24, 2014: Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Lithuania)

Barkin (ibid) has [also] pointed out that, "German media have been complaining for months about their news sites being bombarded with pro-Russian comments. German security sources say they are part of an organized offensive steered from the Kremlin."

But the Putin propaganda strategy has a global dimension that is even more sinister.

Apart from pouring millions into his global propaganda machines, Putin is also cynically using the UN as a tool to infect the leaders of the world with his warped narrative of events in Ukraine.
 

UN Gereral Assembly

"The Resolution on Combating Glorification of Nazism and Other Contemporary Forms of Racism put forward by the Russian Federation was adopted by voting on 21 November 2014 at the Third Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, 115 states voting for, 3 against, and 55 abstaining." (UN)
 
Even more disconcerting is Joanna Szostek's perceptive analysis of the Russian propaganda machine. 

Joanna Szostek

As she states,

"According to some commentators, the purpose of Russian propaganda is less to win outright support than to sow doubt, introduce ambiguity and thus weaken the resolve of those challenging the Kremlin. Even if this is so, Western countries will not become any safer by rejecting all Russian arguments as ‘psychological operations’ or heavy-handedly obstructing their diffusion in public discourse." (ibid Szostek) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, 

"[t]he problem [for the West] is that the Kremlin’s narrative has become far more than a tool for manipulating foreigners. It also structures how tens of millions of individuals at all levels of Russian society (not to mention some Ukrainians) think and perceive the world. Therefore, the more the Russian account of events is ignored, censored or condemned in the West as utterly illegitimate, the deeper public distrust of the West in Russia is likely to become – and this will hardly facilitate a reduction in current tensions.(ibid Szostek)

The next few days will determine whether Putin will begin to blink or whether he will "push the proverbial nuclear button" and cause the EU to tear itself apart.
 
(to be continued)