Is Putin preparing for a winter invasion of Ukraine?

In yesterday's blog entry I pointed out that Putin was wooing former east European countries, especially Hungary, to give the green light to his South Stream project so that he could by-pass Ukraine in shipping gas to the EU. Subsequently,


"...  Hungary’s lawmakers recently voted to go forward with the South Stream project" thus ignoring the EU's blocking of the pipeline transiting EU member countries.

The EU has, in this instance, heeded the call of Arseniy Yatsenyuk (current PM of Ukraine) on June 3, 2014  for the European Union  ..... to block Russian South Stream gas pipeline . (Sputnik International: 03.06.2014)

Arseniy Yatsenyuk Арсеній Яценюк

"We call on the European Union to block the South Stream. Ukraine is a reliable transit country, we have fulfilled and will continue to fulfil our obligations," Yatsenyuk told the parliament." (Sputnik International: 03.06.2014) (my emphasis)

Yatsenyuk Urges EU to Block Russia's South Stream Pipeline

Yesterday (Dec. 1, 2014) Suzan Fraser and Vladimir Isachenkov, reported from Ankara that,

"Amid spiraling tensions with the West, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced Monday (Dec. 1, 2014) that Moscow is spiking a multibillion dollar gas pipeline project for southern Europe and will focus instead on boosting its energy ties with Turkey." (my emphasis)

Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) and President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan during a meeting in the Presidential Palace in Ankara December 1, 2014. (RIA Novosti / Michael Klimentyev)

There is something rather prophetic in this deepening economic relationship between  Erdogan and Putin, between Turkey and Russia. Turkey is already the 2nd largest trading partner with Russia, closely behind Putin's favoured nation, Germany.

As also in the case of the recent 2nd big gas deal struck between China and Russia, Putin is trying to pre-empt falling future sales of gas to EU countries by striking these deals with Turkey and China.

Russia's President Vladimir Putin (L)  shakes hands with China's President Xi Jinping

However, as Andrew Roth (Reuters:Dec. 1, 2014) points out,

"Gazprom has estimated its sales from the eastern route over 30 years will amount to $400 billion, but the collapse in oil prices may cut that figure.

"The price of Russian gas is linked to that of oil. Since May, the value of the Chinese contract shrank to $300 billion. The low price of oil complicates the price negotiation," said Mikhail Korchemkin, a director of U.S.-based consultancy East European Gas Analysis."

Is it because of this diplomatic defeat over the South Stream gas pipeline that Putin, whom we all know carries a grudge forever, will intensify both the arming of the rebels in eastern Ukraine and also increase the amount of Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine as the prelude to a pre-emptive push against the Ukrainian army in Mariupol? Is this the real motive behind Putin's recent huge TROJAN 'humanitarian aid convoy' that has recently arrived in Donetsk?

Already Russia's military intentions for Ukraine's annexed Crimea is causing consternation amongst NATO members. The build-up of Russian and rebel forces to attack Mariupol, thus creating a land-bridge between rebel-held territory and Russian occupied Crimea, is critical for Putin.

                         

As  Jeremy Bender (Business Insider:Nov. 13, 2014) reported,

"Ivan Lozowy, a policy analyst based in Kiev, believes that the seizure of Mariupol and the creation of the land bridge is a top priority for Putin. However, any battle for Mariupol is likely to be drawn out and bloody. "

It is therefore becoming critical that Ukraine begins to receive military aid. Already, as tweeted by the Ukrainian Ambassador to Canada Prystaiko,

" ... a plane with Canadian military aid onboard has departed for Ukraine." (Interfax-Ukraine: 28.11.2014)
                             
 Furthermore,

(Reuters: Wed Nov 26, 2014) - Lithuania may supply weapons to Ukraine as part of military aid it promised to help Kiev fight pro-Russian separatists, the Lithuanian defense minister told Reuters in an interview on Wednesday.

Added to which,

"Having reluctantly concluded that it will not get the assistance it needs from NATO as a whole, the Ukrainian government is seeking to obtain it by developing military ties with Lithuania and Poland, a move both Vilnius and Warsaw appear receptive to, according to “Nezavisimaya gazeta.” (EuroMaidan Press: 26/11/2014)

                                

Is the stage been set for all out war between Ukraine and Russia?

(to be continued)