Putin's economic woes, the price of vodka, and dying pensioners

In the first entry of this blog (Tuesday, 10 June 2014) I wrote that,

"The lanes of history are littered with men who have behaved as Putin currently does over Crimea and the Ukraine. Nowadays there are many who are likening him to Hitler or Stalin. If we go back further in history the name of Napoleon springs to mind. Still further, during the heyday of the Roman Empire, the image of Nero looms large.

But Putin is Putin, living today with his peculiar demons and not with those of others."

Pictured From left to right : Russian Ambassador to

Belarus Alexander Surikov, Russian Ambassador

to Ukraine Mikhail Zurabov and former Ukrainian

President Leonid Kuchma

A rather potent and recent indicator of the peculiarity of Putin's demons is the failure of the Minsk talks which ended yesterday (Dec 24, 2014),

"after more than five hours, with no indication of progress and questions about when the next round might take place." (ABC News: Yuras Karmanau Associated Press : Dec 24, 2014) (my emphasis)

Furthermore that,

"News media were not allowed access to the meeting and the participants left the session without comment. Another round had been tentatively set for Friday, but the Belarusian Foreign Ministry said after the session's conclusion that it was unclear if that would take place." (ibid Yuras Karmanau) (my emphasis)

From this failure we can rightly assume that the economic catastrophe that has just recently descended upon Putin's Russia, and which Putin almost rather glibly dismissed during his marathon press conference last Thursday, has rather rattled him. 

Thus, as Tom Parfitt reported from Moscow,

"Vladimir Putin signalled he would not back down over the Ukraine crisis on Thursday, likening the West to a bloodthirsty opponent intent on “tearing out the claws and teeth” of the Russian bear.

Speaking at his annual press conference in Moscow, Russia’s president accused the United States and Europe of deciding “that they are winners, they are an empire now and the rest are vassals and they have to be driven into a corner”.(Daily Telegraph: 18 Dec 2014) (my emphasis)

But the more significant statement of Putin during this marathon press conference was,

President Putin enjoying a concert 

honoring security personnel Saturday

with FSB director Alexander Bortnikov

 and SVR director Mikhail Fradkov.

"The strength is in the truth. When a Russian feels he is right, he is invincible — I am saying it with absolute sincerity," he argued, making a reference to popular Russian film "Brother 2," which, according to a review at the time of its release in 2000, "manifested Russia's new snobbery toward the U.S."(The Moscow Times ; van Nechepurenko Dec. 21 2014) (my emphasis)

Is it any wonder, therefore , that the recently convened Minsk meeting ended up in failure, even though there has been a prisoner exchange between Putin's rebels in eastern Ukraine and the Ukrainian army? (BBC News Europe : 26 December 2014)

Yet, as reported in Xinhua  by He Mengshu,

"Merkel is known to have discussed the issue many times with world leaders, including U.S. President Barack Obama, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, emerging more and more as a pivotal leader in helping settle the conflict." (China News : 26-12-2014)

As He Mengshu notes, Merkel has become the pivotal point around which a diplomatic resolution of the war between Ukraine and Russia revolves. What will Merkel now do given that even the lastest attempt at resucitating the Minsk protocols of September has ended in failure? Added to which, that dyed-in-the-wool Lavrov has the temerity to suggest that,

"In order to solve the ongoing crisis in the country, Ukrainian authorities must launch constitutional reform uniting all political forces and all regions of the war-torn country, the Russian Foreign Minister has said.

The reform must take into consideration all strata of Ukrainian society and representatives from all the country’s regions, Sergey Lavrov stated in an interview with Kommersant daily, released on Thursday" (RT : December 25, 2014) (my emphasis) 

This is yet another subtle message that Putin really wants the creation of a Federal Ukraine. As stated in the Minsk protocols,

“To decentralize power, including through the adoption by Ukraine of law 'on provisional procedure for local government in parts of Donetsk and Lugansk regions (law on special status),'” states one of the provisions in the document." (RT: September 07, 2014) (my emphasis)

As I have stated before, Putin has long ago relegated those Minsk protocols to the dustbin of history. Now they are merely a tool that Putin uses to shore up Merkel's pivotal position in trying to diplomatically bring to an end the war between Ukraine and Russia. 

But for how long can Putin  play this game with Merkel, especially now that the Russian economy is in dire straits? For how long can Lavrov, this so-called 'experienced' Foreign Minister of Russia, continue to play this game of deception on the international stage? Surely even he must be tiring of having to continually sing the mantra of giving the rebel-held territoriy of eastern Ukraine 'special status' simply so that Putin can 'save face'?

Let it be said that Putin does not give a fig for the brutal suffering of the people in the rebel-controlled area of eastern Ukraine. Does Putin loose any sleep over the fact that the elderly are starving and freezing to death in the rebel held areas of eastern Ukraine? 

"Though Ukraine has not publicly discussed starvation deaths, it acknowledges there is a humanitarian crisis in the eastern region because of the conflict and blames the separatists and Russia for supporting the rebels.
The government cut off pensions this month to people in all areas of eastern Ukraine controlled by separatists to undercut support for pro-Russian rebels." (USA Today: Tatyana Goryachova and Hal Foster : December 25, 2014) (my emphasis)

And whilst pensioners are starving and dying in eastern Ukraine,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his government to rein in rising vodka prices, as he battles to preserve his popularity amid an aggravating economic crisis ....... Russia is facing its worst economic crisis since 1998, when the country devalued the rouble and defaulted on its debt .." (Daily Mail: 26 December 2014) (my emphasis)

Is the noose tightening around Putin's neck?  Is Putin on the verge of creating a 'Black Swan' event to maintain his popularity in Russia?

(to be continued)