Putin, Khodorkovsky, and Medvedev ... Ukraine no longer non-aligned

Finally it has dawned upon Dmitri Medvedev that the Russian economy is not in the good shape that Putin, in his meeting with the press last Thursday (18 Dec. 2014), assumed it to be.

"Russian President Vladimir Putin has attempted to assuage fears of economic collapse and promised rapid recovery as he faced hundreds of journalists amid the worst financial crisis of his rule." (Aljazeera :  18 Dec 2014)

As he boldly stated,

"Under the most unfavourable world conditions, such a situation can last two years," Putin said days after the Russian rouble fell to record lows, following a 60-percent dive in value since the beginning of the year." (ibid Aljazeera) (my emphasis)

Like King Canute, Putin is ordering the waves of a disastrous Russian economic downturn to recede but, unfortunately, to no avail.

Unlike Putin, Dmitri Medvedev is under no illusions. Yesterday (Tues. 23 Dec. 2014) he warned that,

".... the country faces a risk of a "deep recession" if the government ditches its spending plans.
Speaking at a meeting of his party, Medvedev said ...... that the government won't retreat from its strategic aims and social spending. Otherwise, he said Russia could plunge into a "deep recession." (CNBC : Tues. 23 Dec. 2014)

              Khodorkovsky                           Medvedev

If Medvedev is under no illusions about the parlous state of the Russian economy, then neither is Khodorkovsky.

"[Khodorkovsky] is proposing himself as a “crisis manager” to bring real democracy to the country if President Vladimir Putin leaves office.

On his own potential role in Russia, the former owner of the Yukos oil company said he was “by mentality a crisis manager”.
“My personal interest is what I can do — and that’s [lead] a transitional government, which carries out political reform. And that means only one thing — rule of law.” (FT : Neil Buckley: December 19, 2014) (my emphasis)

                        Bloomberg TV : Recent (Dec 2014) Khodorkovsky Interview

Khodorkovsky is throwing his hat into the Russian political ring, strangely enough almost with the blessing of Putin himself. For did Putin not recently say that,

" .... former oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky, one of his biggest critics, had the right to engage in politics “as any Russian citizen” ( Reuters : December 18 2014)

                            Putin                                         Khodorkovsky

What is rather puzzling about this new stance of Khodorkovsky is that almost a year ago (12 Dec 2013)  he said that, " .... he would return to Russia, but ruled out entering politics to challenge the regime of President Vladimir Putin" (Daily Telegraph : Roland Oliphant : 22 Dec 2013) (my emphasis)


Even more interesting, he also said on that same day that,  " ..... he and Mr Putin know each other so well that they "do not need to say another word to receive another word to understand one another's answers .." (ibid Roland Oliphant) (my emphasis)

As strange as these developments may seem in light of Russia's current economic problems; let it not be forgotten that Putin and Khodorkovsky share the SAME view about Ukrainian Crimea being historically an integral part of 'Mother Russia'. Just as Putin will never return Ukrainian Crimea to Ukraine, neither will Khodorkovsky.

Kasparov regards this stand of Khodorkovsky as nothing short of scandalous.

Kasparov

"When commenting on the scandalous statements made by Alexey Navalny and Mikhail Khodorkovsky that they would not return Crimea to Ukraine, Kasparov emphasized that the conclusion an external observer could reach after this consists of the fact that there is no essential alternative to Putin in Russia." (EuroMaidan Press: 20 Oct. 2014) (my emphasis)

If Kasparov is right in his assessment that there really is no alternative to Putin in Russia, then you have to conclude that even Khodorkovsky, who could soon replace Medvedev, will also be confronted by the fact that Ukraine has just voted to drop its non-aligned status and work towards NATO membership.

 The apoplexy in the Kremlin following to-day's (23 Dec 2014) vote in the Ukrainian Rada is best summed up by that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign Minister Lavrov viz.

"Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called the move "counterproductive" and said it would boost tensions." (BBC News Europe: 23 December 2014)

President Poroshenko

President Propshenko, addressing foreign ambassadors on Monday night said,

"Ukraine's "fight for its independence, territorial integrity and sovereignty has turned into a decisive factor in our relations with the world". (ibid BBC News) (my emphasis)


We await Putin's response to this decisive vote in the Ukrainian Rada. Is this the 'Black Swan' event which Khodorkovsky, in his Bloomberg TV Interview, argues is needed to change the political landscape in Russia, or will this vote force Putin into precipitating a dangerous 'Black Swan' event that could lead to his demise.

(to be continued)