Putin's crisis military doctrine, occupied Crimea, the New Year, and a distraught mother

"A Black Swan event is an event in human history that [is] unprecedented and totally unexpected at the point in time [that] it [occurs]."

Khordokovsky hinted in a recent interview that a 'Black Swan' event is needed if Putin is to be toppled from power.

However, Putin may create his own 'Black Swan' event to deflect the eyes of the Russian people away from their increasing economic hardship as their economy continues on its downward spiral towards recession and unemployment.


Is the fact that only last Friday Putin signed a new 'crisis' military doctrine (Reuters: Fri Dec 26, 2014) targeting NATO and focussing on INTERNAL risks that could destabilise the country, an indication that he is possibly laying the groundwork for his own  'Black Swan' event?

Even more ominous, the recent (26-12-2014) bombings in Odessa and Kharkiv are, according to Shkiriak, due to the fact that

" ... Kharkiv and Odessa have recently become the cities that are used by terrorists to stress the situation" . (UNIAN Information Agency :26.12.2014)

As a direct result of these bombings,

"Train and bus traffic [to and from Russian occupied Crimea] was suspended because "there is a high likelihood of sabotage groups entering under the guise of local people," Ukrainian security council spokesman Col. Andriy Lysenko told a briefing. He didn't say how long the closure would last." (Yahoo News : 28-12-2014) (my emphasis)

 

All of this comes against the backdrop of Ukraine,

" ... supplying limited amounts of electricity to [Russian occupied] Crimea on Saturday but the shortages of power compelled the regional power grids operator to continue rolling outages in different parts of the peninsular republic, Sergei Yegorov, the Crimean minister of fuel and energy told TASS" (SIMFEROPOL, December 27 2014)

It is for this reason, and this reason alone, that Russia has decided to supply Ukraine with both electricity and coal to forestall Ukraine completely cutting off electricity supplies to Russian occupied Crimea. Why else would Russia suddenly have a change of mind regarding supplying Ukraine with coal, IMMEDIATELY AFTER Ukraine suspended train and bus services to Russian occupied Crimea? 

Furtheremore, that Ukraine will be charged the SAME price for this coal as it costs for coal in Russia itself, and WITHOUT Ukraine having to pay UPFRONT for this coal. (South China Morning Post : Sat Dec 27, 2014)

As Deputy Prime Minister of Russia, Dmitry Kozak, told Rossiya 24 television,

"Supplies will come at Russian domestic prices, Kozak said, adding that he hoped the move would help ensure reliable energy supplies to Crimea." (ibid South China Morning Post) (my emphasis)

But what about the threat of Putin to move nuclear weapons onto Russian occupied Crimea? As that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign Minister Lavrov said on Dec. 16, 2014,

"Crimea has now become part of a country that has such weapons under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons,” Lavrov told the Interfax News Service. “And by international law, the Russian state has all grounds to dispose of its legitimate nuclear arsenal in accordance with its interests and in accordance with its international legal obligations." (Rob Garver,The Fiscal Times : 16-12-2014)

Is this threat now receding in light of Russia supplying electricity and coal to Ukraine, so that Russian occupied Crimea does not suffer from a winter of darkness? So that its soldiers now stationed there can celebrate the coming New Year by being able to use all their IPhones and laptops and TV's? So that Russian occupied Crimea can be lit up for the coming celebrations?

The coming New Year celebrations will not, however, be as sumptuous as those of 2013. Already,

"Russian companies are cutting back on the lavish New Year's parties that have become a hallmark of Russian corporate culture as falling oil prices and breakneck ruble devaluation stoke fears of economic crisis." (Delphine d'Amora : Moscow Times: Dec. 12 2014)

 Added to which, ordinary Russian citizens will be confronted with rising local food prices and a complete lack of all those western foodstuffs and consumer goods that they have become so accustomed to.

But perhaps, most saddening of all during this festive season in Russia, 

"During his annual press conference earlier this month, Vladimir Putin, the president, said that all Russian combatants in Ukraine’s Donbas region were volunteers answering “a call of the heart”. 

"Anton Tumanov gave up his life for his country - but his country won’t say where, and it won’t say how.

His mother knows. She knows that Mr Tumanov, a 20 year-old junior sergeant in the Russian army, was killed in eastern Ukraine, torn apart in a rocket attack on August 13.

Yelena Tumanova, 41, learned these bare facts about her son’s death from one of his comrades, who saw him get hit and scooped up his body.

“What I don’t understand is what he died for,” she says. “Why couldn’t we let people in Ukraine sort things out for themselves? And seeing as our powers sent Anton there, why can’t they admit it and tell us exactly what happened to him.”(Tom Parfitt, Kozmodemyansk : Daily Telegraph : 27 Dec 2014) (my emphasis)

Yelena Tumanova visits her son Anton’s grave in his home town of Kozmodemyansk, 400 miles east of Moscow, Russia   Picture by Tom Parfitt.

(to be continued)