Will Putin create an 'incident' to raise the price of oil?

Hardly has the meeting between the 'fragrant' Mogherini and Poroshenko reached the half-way stage than that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign Minister of Putin, Lavrov, announces that,

"...he has serious reasons to believe that the United States is attempting to change [Putin's] regime and destabilize the situation in Russia with the help of sanctions." (Moscow, Dec. 16. :Tass)

Furthermore that, (and this IS the interesting bit)

"There will be no “second Crimea” in south-east Ukraine, but Crimea is Russian land, Lavrov stressed. Moscow unambiguously supports Ukraine’s territorial integrity, he added.
Degree of autonomy of Donetsk, Luhansk regions should be determined by Ukrainians, Russia does not offer federalization or autonomy, the foreign minister said." (ibid Tass)

What signal, exactly, is Lavrov sending out with these comments?

These comments are, not necessarily in order but , that:

• the US is seeking the 'overthrow' of Putin
• the US wants to destabilize Russia
• Crimea is Russian land
• south-east Ukraine is not a 'second' Crimea for Russia
• Russia does NOT want their proxy rebel-held territories in Donetsk and Lughansk to be 'autonomous' from, or 'federalized' within, Ukraine
• Moscow (Putin) unambiguously supports Ukraine's territorial integrity

It really is the last three points that signals a shift from the previous clamour of Putin about what the status of the rebel-held territory in eastern Ukraine should be.

Thus it was that on August 27, 2014, Putin stated before his talks with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko in Minsk, Belarus that,

".....Ukraine's government [must] begin negotiations [in Minsk] on the issues of statehood for the southeast of Ukraine...... according to an interview [that he had] with Russia's state TV Channel 1." (Michael B Kelley and Reuters: Aug. 31, 2014) (my emphasis)

Furthermore that,

"Previously, Russia has only called for greater rights under a decentralized federal system for the regions claimed by separatists." (ibid Michael Kelly and Reuters) (my emphasis)

What we have here is a rather strange transformation from Putin's call for federalism in Ukraine, then his call for 'autonomous' statehood for the rebel-held territories in eastern Ukraine, and now Lavrov speaks about 'no federalization' nor any 'autonomous statehood' for those same rebel-held areas of eastern Ukraine. This transformation has taken place over the space of 3 1/2 months! 

Is Putin beginning to loose his grip in the Kremlin? Are 'PANIC' cracks beginning to appear amongst his kleptocratic clan? (previous blog entry)

What is perhaps more illustrative of these 'panic' cracks appearing within Putin's kleptocratic clan is that Medvedev, who will go down in history as keeping the Russian presidential seat warm for Putin, is now trying to emerge as a growling Russian bear.

As reported by Peter Leonard,

"Russia looks intent to pile on the economic misery. In a detailed op-ed piece Monday, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev painted a grim forecast of Russian economic blockades ahead as Ukraine embarks on closer integration with Europe." (Yahoo News: December 15, 2014)

Yet, just as you thought that Putin was beginning to falter somewhat,


 "Stockholm: A Russian military jet nearly collided with a commercial passenger plane in international airspace near southern Sweden on Friday, the Swedish authorities said" (Johan Ahlander : Sydney Morning Herald: December 15, 2014)

These 'macho' postures of Putin and his 'sidekick' Medvedev are not only for the consumption of the West, but also for the Russian people. The Russian economy is 'tanking' and, somehow, Putin must create an incident which will stem the falling price of oil. This is more so because,

Abdalla el-Badri

"On Monday (15 December 2014), Opec officials reiterated their opposition to cutting production. Abdalla el-Badri, the Opec secretary general, said the group could manage an oil price slump without amending production. Suhail bin Mohammed al-Mazroui, oil minister of the United Arab Emirates, an Opec member, said there was no need for an emergency meeting of the cartel to help support prices." (Jennifer Rankin and Philip Inman : The Guardian: Tuesday 16 December 2014) (my emphasis)

 With all of this as the backdrop, the meeting between the Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko and the 'fragrant' Federica Mogherini included the following confirmations viz.

" ..... that the EU paid top-priority attention to Ukraine. [Mogherini stated that,] "We can begin our work using the instruments that have emerged due to the Association Agreement and implement the reforms. We should continue our joint work just as we have ratified the Agreement." (Press Office of President Poroshenko 16.12.2014)

She also stated that, 

 " ...the EU would do everything,  for the Minsk agreements to be fulfilled." (ibid Press Office) (my emphasis)

This almost single-minded focus of the EU on Putin's Trojan Minsk agreement, especially by Merkel, Hollande, and Matteo Renzi (Germany, France, and Italy), does not seem to accept the fact that Putin himself has already relegated it to the political dustbin of history. It's only real diplomatic use is to expose Putin as someone who both lies internationally and simply does not keep his word.

It should also be borne in mind that Germany, France, and Italy have 'oodles' of money invested in Putin's Russia. Is this what is driving them to 'tip-toe' around Putin? Are Ukrainians to be sacrified on the alter of the Euro?

Yet again am I reminded of the words of Alexander Motyl. (CNN: July 25, 2014)

"Prosperous capitalist democracies, and especially prosperous capitalist democracies that are part of a self-styled community of values called the European Union, cannot take the easy way out and pretend values do not matter. In the final analysis, the willingness of France, Germany and all the other states making up the European Union to respond to Putin's evil doing will determine the moral fate of the EU. If they sacrifice morality to arms contracts or gas, the EU will have lost its rasion d'etre. Worse, like Putin, it will be without a soul." (my emphasis)

(to be continued)