Putin, Lukashenko, and Nazerbaev ... and new sanctions against Crimea

In a previous blog I mentioned that,

"As with Ukraine, "Vladimir Putin made ominous comments on Kazakhstan's statehood at the Seliger Youth Forum last month"  (Casy Michel The Moscow Times September 16, 2014) It would therefore seems that Putin's dream about a Eurasian Economic Community, a counter economic block to the EU, is rapidly evaporating. Putin's fine words viz. "that the Russian economy will grow despite sanctions", simply does not "butter any parsnips". But for how long will these sanctions last?"

Furthermore ,

"As reported by Abdujalil Abdurasulov (BBC: 9 November 2014) from northern Kazakhstan,

"The crisis in Ukraine has prompted many [in Kazakhstan]  to ask who the Russian community in Kazakhstan would support if relations with Moscow turned sour.

"Events in Ukraine became a good lesson for Kazakhstan," says Dosym Satpayev, a political analyst.
He says that it helped people to realise that northern Kazakhstan is a very sensitive issue - and not simply because of large Russian communities living there.

Mr Satpayev argues that people in the region, like many others in Kazakhstan, are especially receptive to Russia's propaganda machine. (my emphasis)"

Even more interesting, "[the] Belarusian President Lukashenko says that if the seizure of Crimea is justified on the grounds that it is an historically Russian territory then, based the same reasoning, most of Russia, Western and Eastern Europe should be returned to Khazakstan and Mongolia." (Ukraine Today: 9 Oct. 2014) (my emphasis)

It is therefore interesting that both the president of Belarus and Kazakhstan, Lukashenko and Nazarbaev respectively, are having discussions with Ukrainian president Poroshenko. Lukashenko visited Kiev on the 19th Dec. 2014, and Nazarbaev will be seeing him on the 22 Dec. 2014.

Thereafter, both Lukashenko and Nazarbaev will be visiting Moscow on 23 Dec. 2014

" for a meeting of presidents from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO)" (RFERL : Sunday, December 21, 201)

The CSTO is,

" .... an intergovernmental military alliance which was signed on 15 May 1992. In 1992, six post-Soviet states belonging to the Commonwealth of Independent States—Russia, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan—signed the Collective Security Treaty. Three other post- Soviet states—Azerbaijan, Belarus, and Georgia—signed the next year and the treaty took effect in 1994. Five years later, six of the nine—all but Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Uzbekistan—agreed to renew the treaty for five more years " (Wikipedia)"

Now it is interesting to note that Putin chaired a meeting with senior military officials at the Defense Ministry's control room in Moscow, December 19, 2014 ( Vladimir Soldatkin, Reuters Dec 20, 2014)

Furthermore, that he spoke at a concert honouring past and present security service staff at the State Kremlin Palace in Moscow, December 20, 2014. (Reuters/Alexei Druzhinin/RIA Novosti/Kremlin) (my emphasis)

At this concert, Putin categorically said that,

"Russia will not be intimidated over its actions in Ukraine and Crimea,  ....... as his foreign ministry warned that it was preparing to retaliate against fresh Western sanctions. " (ibid Alexei Druzhinin) 

These new sanctions refer, of course, to those recently announced by the EU,  Canada and the US. These sanctions are specifically directed towards the occupation by Russia of Ukrainian Crimea.

Given Nazarbaev's fears that what Putin has done in Ukraine he may also, in the near future, attempt to do in Kazakhstan, and that Lukashenko disagrees with his annexation of Ukrainian Crimea; what, then, will they be discussing at their upcoming meeting in Moscow on 23 Dec. 2014?

Putin cannot be as belligerent towards them as he is towards the EU, US, and Canada in particular.

It would therefore seems as though a sort of re-start of those Trojan Minsk proposals of Putin is on the cards for discussion between Putin, Nazarbaev, and Lukashenko.. This would tie in with Nazarbaev's and Lukashenko's visit to Kiev, as well as to Merkel's, Hollande's, and the 'fragrant' Mogherini's constant chant that those Minsk proposals hold the key to ending the war between Russia and Ukraine.

Unfortunately, as I stated in an earlier blog, Putin seems to have already relegated the Minsk proposals to the dustbin of history.

Added to which, Pososhenko is adamant that he will not

" ....  discuss one of the separatists' main demands -- that he resume the social welfare payments to the war-torn region that Kiev suspended last month ... since [he] argues [quite correctly] that the money is being stolen by the insurgents and used to pay guerrillas and foreign mercenaries." (AFP : December 21, 2014)

This main 'demand' of Putin's rebels could be due to,

" ...[their] inability to improve life in the socially devastated region [which now] threatens to turn the locals against them and undermine their claims of legitimacy." (ibid AFP) (my emphasis)

Added to which, no matter how many times Putin throws a tantrum against the EU, US, and  Canada in particular, his 'tanking' economy due to falling oil prices and the near collapse of the rouble cannot be stopped by simply 'shouting at it'.

(to be continued)