Search This Blog

Monday 13 April 2015

Is Putin's tangled web of deceit now enmeshing him?

As the Minsk2 'ceasefire' continues to unravel, it was to be expected that, once again, Merkel's Foreign Minister, the 'Putinversteher' Walter Steinmeier,

"... has urged Russia and Ukraine to move forward with the terms of the Minsk ceasefire, ahead of a key meeting in Berlin." (DW : 13.04.2015)

"We expect both Moscow and Kyiv to seize the central issue of the implementation of the next phase of Minsk," Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said in Monday's edition of German daily Die Welt.
This phase foresees "the preparation of local elections in the areas occupied by the separatists, but also humanitarian aid access and reconstruction in eastern Ukraine," Steinmeier said." (ibid DW) (my emphasis)

Steinmeier lauded the progress that had been made, citing the "well-advanced withdrawal of heavy weapons" (ibid DW)  in the face of,

(1) "Ukrainian forces [who] faced 20 attacks by Kremlin-led militants in the past 48 hours and spotted 30 enemy drones probing their positions, an unnamed NATO official said that Russia has sent additional military manpower and arms to Donbas (right: April 10, 2015.), according to a news report by the FrankruterAllgemeine Zeitung that interviewed the person." (KyivPost : April 12, 2015) (my emphasis)

AND

(2) "The OSCE this week demand[ing] that both the pro-Russian separatists and the regular Ukrainian army stop intimidating or restricting the movements of its 400 monitors." (AFP (Yahoo News) : 13 April, 2015)

Is Steinmeier giving Putin an 'exit strategy' from his war with Ukraine; an 'exit strategy' to be presented at to-day's meeting in Berlin that will be attended by himself, Russia's Lavrov, France's Fabius and Ukraine's Klimkin?

             Klimkin                              Fabius                                Lavrov                      Steinmeier
The results of to-day's meeting in Berlin will then be discussed at "a meeting of G7 foreign ministers in Luebeck, Germany, on Tuesday and Wednesday." (ibid AFP (Yahoo News)) (my emphasis)

The current G7 group consists of Canada's Robert Nicholson, France's Laurent Fabius, Germany's Walter Steinmeier, the UK's Philip Hammond, Italy's Paolo Gentiloni, Japan's Fumio Kishida, and the US's John Kerry.

   Canada: Nicholson         France: Fabius        Germany: Steinmeier           UK : Hammond

           Italy: Gentiloni                Japan: Kishida               US: Kerry
We can reasonably expect that France, Germany, and Italy will be fully supportive of Steinmeier's suggestion about pushing the Minsk2 agreements to the next stage.

Canada, the UK, and the US, will be very reluctant to endorse Steinmeier due to the fact that EACH of these countries have sent military trainers to Ukraine in response to Putin's continous build-up of his forces in eastern Ukraine.

The position of Japan will be dictated by the longstanding dispute between Russia and Japan over the Kuril Islands issue. Kishida is thus also unlikely to endorse Steinmeier's proposal about moving Minsk2 to the next phase of preparing for 'elections' in eastern Ukraine.


Putin must be apoplectically angry about this G7 meeting since Russia was,

G7 leaders clockwise from left, EC president Herman Van Rompuy, Canadian PM Stephen Harper, French President Francois Hollande, British PM David Cameron, US President Barack Obama, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Japanese PM Shinzo Abe, Italian PM Matteo Renzi and EC president Jose Manuel Barroso"....suspended from the elite G8 group of leading economies, who said they could not accept its breach of international law [in annexing Ukrainian Crimea].

David Cameron, Barack Obama and other world leaders said it was up to Vladimir Putin to 'change course' over Ukraine or his country will remain excluded indefinitely. " (Tamara Cohen : Daily Mail:




Image result for ramzan kadyrov





men have steadily expanded their sway beyond Chechnya to control lucrative businesses in Moscow and elsewhere in Russia.

Leaders of [Chechnya's] federal law enforcement agencies have watched Kadyrov's growing power with dismay and have made no secret of their desire to curb him." (US News : April 12, 2015) (my emphasis)

And how is Putin responding to the growing dis-satisfaction of Chechnya's law enforcement agencies with Kadyrov's growing power?

"Putin quickly sent a signal that he intended to stand by Kadyrov by awarding him the Order of Honor for distinguished public service, a day after Kadyrov spoke out in defense of the arrested Chechens [accused of the murder of Boris Nemtsov (right)]. (ibid US News) (my emphasis)

"And while leaders are divided over the conflict in Ukraine, they have been united in observing sacred ceremonies marking Christians’ belief in the resurrection of Christ." (EuroNews : 12 April, 2015)

(to be continued)

Sunday 12 April 2015

Putin's anger in 'overdrive'

Claire Rosemberg (left)  and Oleksandr Savochenko report that,

" Controversial laws designed to leave Ukraine's Soviet past behind stoked tension in the war-divided country Friday and prompted an angry reaction from Russia which called the ban on communist-era symbols "totalitarian".......Ukraine's parliament voted on Thursday to ban communist-era and Nazi symbols in what supporters said was a bid to break with the country's tragic World War II past and Moscow's domination through most of the 20th century.(AFP (Yahoo News): April 10,2015) (my emphasis)

And in Kharkiv, 48 Hours after these laws were passed,

"Activists toppled three statues of Communist leaders overnight Friday in Ukraine's second-largest city, Kharkiv, days after parliament passed a controversial bill designed to purge the country of Soviet-era symbols." (FRANCE 24 with AFP : 11 April, 2015)


And whilst Putin is lashing out at this law to erase the symbols of Ukraine's Soviet past,

US-Soviet meeting at Torgau, 1945






Russian forces and their proxies fired 20 times at Ukraine-controlled positions in the past 24 hours, while employing an alarming number of 30 surveillance drones over Kyiv-controlled territory in war-torn eastern Ukraine." (KyivPost : April 11, 2015) (my emphasis)



Symbolbild Waffenexporte Deutschland Panzer

Reuters/Przemyslaw Szyszka





Ukraine, locked in conflict with Russian-backed separatists in its east, on Thursday drew up a new security doctrine denouncing Russia's "aggression" and setting its sights on joining the U.S.-led NATO military alliance." (Reuters : Thu Apr 9, 2015)

All these developments yet again indicates that Putin is preparing for an invasion of Mariupol, as well as preparing the Russian people 'emotionally' for this imminent invasion.

To this end, Putin's propaganda machine is in overdrive.  

On the 8th of April, Natalia Antelava (left) and Abdujalil Abdurasulov reported that,

"Russian television stations recently report claims that a 10-year-old girl had been killed by shelling." (BBC News : 8 April,2015)

What is frightening about this story is that while this event never happened, the Russian people actually believe that is has simply because Putin's propaganda machine solemnly reported it on Russian TV.


This type of cruel and cynical false reporting on Russian TV occurred as early as in July of 2014 when it was reported that a young child had been crucified in Slovyansk for simply speaking Russian, and that his unconscious mother was then bound to a tank and driven 3 times around the square where her child had been crucified. (English subtitled version)


Is Putin now so furious at the toppling of Lenin statues in Kharkiv, and with Ukraine setting its sights on joining NATO, that his anger will get the better of him and he WILL step into the abyss and fall headlong into an unsuspecting Black Swan event, the consequences of which is simply too ghastly to contemplate?

(to be continued)

Friday 10 April 2015

Putin's "no-exit strategy" gamble

There is a rather fundamental question that needs to be asked about Putin's 'maskirovka' strategy in giving the 'green light' to the releasing of a spate of bombings in Kharkov.

As Simon Shuster reports from Kharkov,

Ukrainian police and forensic experts examine the wreckage of a mini-bus after explosion, in Kharkov, March 6, 2015."Soon after midnight on April 1, a separatist group calling itself the Kharkov Partisans issued another one of its video warnings to the Ukrainian government. It claimed that within the next 48 hours a bomb would explode far behind the front lines of the war in eastern Ukraine. “As of now, the earth will begin to burn beneath your feet,” said the group’s spokesman, Filipp Ekozyants, in the message to Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko and his top security officials.

Sure enough, the bomb arrived. Though reports have been conflicting as to the damage it caused, a large explosion rang out in the southwestern part of Kharkov, Ukraine’s second largest city, within 24 hours of the Partisans’ threat." (Time : 10 April, 2015) (my emphasis)

Melik KaylanAs these bombings are taking place, (left) informs us that,

"Russian forces busily resupply for Ukraine ahead of a Spring offensive, according to numerous sources including a former head of Nato.  According to my own sources in Ukraine, where I was two weeks ago, Russian military assets have spread broadly all along Ukraine’s eastern border formed up in three waves in order to stretch and overwhelm Ukrainian defences across an entire front." (Forbes :




Natalia Zinets reports,

"The enemy has significantly intensified firing on our positions from weapons that according to the Minsk agreement are meant to have been withdrawn," Kiev's military spokesman Andriy Lysenko (left) said in a televised briefing, adding that the majority of attacks had taken place around the airport of rebel-held Donetsk." (Reuters : Fri Apr 10, 2015) (my emphasis)

"Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe monitors have come under fire by Kremlin-backed separatist forces in Donetsk Oblast's Shyrokyne, casting more doubt about the durability of a cease-fire reached in February.
A statement issued by the organization's Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine on April 8, said the incident occurred at an improvised roadblock about 20 kilometers east of Mariupol on April 7.", as reported by Allison Quinn. (right) (KyivPost : April 8, 2015) (my emphasis)

Allison Quinn further reports that,

"The Security Service of Ukraine has detained 29 people in Odessa accused of plotting political assassinations as part of a wider scheme to destabilize the region, the head of the agency announced.
"As of today there are 29 people (in custody), most of them are Ukrainian citizens," Valentyn Nalyvaichenko said at a briefing on April 9.
"They were preparing for ordered political killings ... to begin seizing the territory and splitting Odessa off from Ukraine," Nalyvaichenko said, adding that the suspects had planned to kill a local lawmaker and several activists." (KyivPost : April 9, 2015) (my emphasis)

All of these current events point to the fact that Putin has no exit-strategy from his war with Ukraine.

Neither Putin, nor his kleptocratic 'siloviki' clan that surrounds him, can be seen to retreat from his  grandiose 'imperial' aims that his propaganda machine has subjected the minds of the Russians to.

Putin's 'siloviki' clan that now surrounds him

          Fradkov                     Shoigu                    Patruschev                   Kolokoltsev                   Bortnikov
Putin is now throwing everything, short of his 'nuclear' kitchen sink, at ensuring that his imminent invasion of Mariupol is not met with defeat.


A defeat for Putin will spell the end of him. The Russian public will not forgive him. His 'aura' of invincibility, that has been force-fed into the minds of the Russian people by his propaganda machine, will simply dissipate into thin air.

He may try to regain his 'invincibility aura' by continuing to demonise the west, but 'the die will be cast'.

The imminent invasion of Mariupol is the biggest gamble that Putin will be taking in his life. No longer can he view the Ukrainian forces with the contempt with which he viewed them when invading, and ultimately annexing, Ukrainian Crimea.

The Ukrainian forces are now battle-hardened. They have proved themselves to be more than a match for his rebel proxies and Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine.

His imminent invasion of Mariupol will also be the tipping point at which Obama will have concede to the demands of both the House of Representatives and the Senate that the US supply Ukraine with defensive lethal weaponry.

Added to which, NATO members in Europe, especially the Baltic States and Poland, will be placed on 'high alert' should he invade Mariupol.

Such an invasion by Putin will neither be lost on Lukashenko, the President of Belarus, nor on Nursultan Nazarbayev, the President of Kazakhstan.

We are therefore left with two questions.

(1) Is all this military preparation by Putin for an invasion of Mariupol simply an elaborate
      'masquerade' to directly influence the upcoming meeting of EU leaders on 27 April
      that will address Poroshenko's request for European peacekeepers to help
      monitor the truce between Kiev and pro-Russian rebels, aimed at ending nearly a
      year of fighting?

OR

(2) Is Putin so infused with his KGB training never to double down, fight his way out,
     turn up the pressure, never admit, never retreat, that he will simply step into
     the abyss into an unsuspecting Black Swan event that will be precipitated by his
     invasion of Mariupol?

(to be continued)

Thursday 9 April 2015

Will Putin now be confronted with a UN Peacekeeping force?

Yesterday (April 08, 2015) Putin's propaganda machine, RT, informed us that,

Image result for Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin"Moscow is urging the removal of all foreign military formations from Ukraine, including the instructors from the United States and NATO, Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin (left) said in an interview with the Rossiiskaya Gazeta daily." (RT : April 08, 2015)

We know that hundreds of US and NATO servicemen are planning to come to Ukraine to train the National Guard. The training camps are being set up not only in western Ukraine, but also in other parts of the country. This is a dangerous process. We would push for all foreign and illegal military units to be removed from Ukraine,” Karasin said.(ibid RT) (my emphasis)

This is no doubt a response to Polish, Latvian, English, NATO, and American trainers who have been helping to build up the efficiency of the Ukrainian forces over the last weeks.

It is obviously also a response to,

"Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatseniuk (right) [who] has [recently] said that the Ukrainian government will sign an agreement on military and technical cooperation with NATO, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine will seek to meet NATO standards." (KyivPost : April 8, 2015) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, Putin continues to build up his forces on the Russia-Ukrainian border, whilst flooding eastern Ukraine with sophisticated military equipment and Russian generals who are training Putin's proxies in eastern Ukraine.

Image result for nataliya vasilyevaAs Nataliya Vasilyeva (left) has informed us,

"On a recent spring morning, an important visitor watched Russian-backed rebels conduct infantry maneuvers in eastern Ukraine (right).

"The general is very pleased," rebel commander Ostap Cherny told his troops, referring to the figure in camouflage encircled by guards.
The man — almost certainly a Russian military officer — became alarmed when he saw two journalists approach. His entourage shielded him — forbidding photos — and the group sped off in a motorcade, the "general" safely inside a black Toyota SUV with no license plates." (AP [Associated Press] : Yahoo News : 3 April, 2015) (my emphasis)

Does Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin include those Russian generals training Putin's proxies in eastern Ukraine amongst his, "foreign and illegal military units that should be removed from Ukraine?

And what about Putin's "illegal military units and sophisticated Russian weaponry" that are still flooding across the Russian border into eastern Ukraine?

As Tom Parfitt informed us but a week ago,

"Russian tanks and soldiers have been “decisive” in winning key battles against government troops in eastern Ukraine, the commander of a separatist “special forces” detachment has admitted.
Dmitry Sapozhnikov in Donetsk, 2014 The Kremlin denies sending men and military vehicles to fight in Ukraine, but Dmitry Sapozhnikov (right) told the BBC that regular army units sent from Russia and commanded by Russian officers were key in seizing the strategic town of Debaltseve in February." (The Telegraph : 31 Mar 2015) (my emphasis)

The recent escalation in Putin's Russian troop movements and military equipment into eastern Ukraine, as well as the call-up of his  rebel proxies in preparation for an imminent offensive against Mariupol, has been closely monitored by Ukraine over the last few days.

As recently as Mar. 27, 2015, Senator McCain was warning of an imminent attack on Mariupol by Putin's Russian soldiers and his proxies in eastern Ukraine.


Christopher Harress





REUTERS08.04.2015) (my emphasis)

'Normandy Four' foreign ministers to meet on Monday to discuss Donbas / Photo from twitter.com/MFA_Ukraine
                   L-R: Lavrov, Steinmeister, Klimkin, and Fabius
This meeting will be held in Berlin on April 13 but it can be assumed from the outset that Lavrov, that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, will be dead-set against any UN peacekeeping mission entering eastern Ukraine, let alone patrolling the porous border between eastern Ukraine and Russia.

France now seems to be closing ranks with Ukraine. Fabius has stated that,

"France's position remains unchanged – we insist on the full-scale implementation of all the clauses of the Minsk[2] agreement according to the schedule," he added." (ibid Unian) (my emphasis)

To cement this closing of ranks between France and Ukraine,

"Fabius also announced a visit of Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatseniuk, who are to arrive in Paris on April 22." (ibid Unian) (my emphasis)

Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras speak during a signing ceremony in the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia...It would now be interesting to see just how the budding 'cameraderie, between Putin and Alexis Tsipras (left), the Greek prime minister, has affected the 'Putinversteher' Walter Steinmeister.

"Mr Putin said the leaders had discussed 'various ways of co-operating, including major projects in energy' and said Russia 'could provide loans' for projects including a potential gas pipeline via Turkey, which was shelved last year amid deteriorating relations between Mr Putin and the EU." (Tamara Cohen : Mail Online :


(to be continued)

Wednesday 8 April 2015

Putin, the Greek, and the Cossacks


In 2013, Ellen Barry informed us that,


"STAVROPOL, Russia — Outside this city’s police headquarters on a recent night, a priest in a purple velvet hat and gold stole moved from one man to the next, offering a cross to be kissed and drenching their faces with holy water from a long brush.
And so began another night of law enforcement as Cossacks, the fierce horsemen who once secured the frontier for the Russian empire, marched out to join the police patrolling the city.

In his third term, President Vladimir V. Putin has offered one clear new direction for the country: the development of a conservative, nationalist ideology. Cossacks have emerged as a kind of mascot, with growing financial and political support." (New York Times :

Map of perevalsk

The young Cossack fighter gripped his automatic rifle as he swore he would defend the town of Perevalsk in war-torn east Ukraine that he and his comrades now control......

But the enemy the Cossacks fear most is the enemy within -- the separatist leaders of the self-declared Lugansk People's Republic (LNR) who they refuse to obey.

"We're under the orders of our Russian brothers of the Great Army of the Don Cossacks. We don't recognise the authority of the LNR," said the soldier." (AFP (Yahoo News) : Tue., April 7, 2015) (my emphasis)
Needless to say,

Image result for Igor Plotnitsky"Igor Plotnitsky (left), head of the Lugansk rebels battling the Kiev government, set an April 4 deadline for the Cossacks to either join the LNR's military wing, hand over their weapons -- or be outlawed." (ibid Nicholas Miletitch) (my emphasis)

What this 'fighting amongst thieves' (sic!) reveals is the nature of the 'hybrid' war that Putin has, unintentionally, set off amongst his own proxies in the rebel-controlled areas of eastern Ukraine. To minimise the serious damage that this 'fighting amongst thieves' could do to his plan for totally undermining both the government and the economy of Ukraine, Putin has to import yet more young Russian soldiers into eastern Ukraine to keep the flame of his war with Ukraine constantly burning.

On the economic horizon, Putin may be uttering a rather small sigh of relief.

Anna Andrianova (right) informs us that,

Anna Andrianova“The economy is gradually entering a recession,” said Vladimir Tikhomirov, chief economist at BCS Financial Group in Moscow. “It’s difficult to say when a reversal will happen. I expect that it may happen in the course of the coming three to six months.” (Bloomberg Business : April 1, 2015) (my emphasis)

She further informs us that,

“The modest rate of economic expansion last year speaks of the anemic internal demand environment born out of sticky inflation and high debt servicing costs,” Johannesburg-based Tradition Analytics said in an e-mailed research note. “Global growth, meanwhile, remains uneven and is therefore unlikely to meaningfully boost GDP.” (ibid Anna Andrianova) (my emphasis)

Russian consumers are, however, finding it tough going. 

in Simferopol informs us that,


Meat for sale at the central food market in the Crimean city of Kerch."Crimea’s residents have only two options when they want to buy something nowadays: cash or Pro-100. .....

[Pro-100 is] the first phase of Russia’s plan to launch its own domestic credit card system – has been introduced ahead of schedule in Crimea to fill the gap......

Pro-100 is the only way to get cash in Crimea. International money transfer systems have also pulled out of the region, and even people with Russian bank cards cannot make transfers or withdraw money in Crimea.

“A friend in the US needed to transfer me some money, and he had to send it by wire to another friend in Moscow, who withdrew the money and then found someone flying here from Moscow to bring it to me by hand,” said one exasperated resident." (The Guardian : Tuesday 7 April 2015) (my emphasis)

If the people in Ukrainian Crimea are having difficulty getting hold of their electronic roubles, how much more so is it in the rebel held areas of eastern Ukraine.

One has to wonder whether Putin is coming to the full realization of the economic millstone that he has placed around his neck by annexing Ukrainian Crimea and incorporating the rebel held areas of eastern Ukraine into the rouble monetary system.

Ivan Nechepurenko tells us that an unidentified source, cited by Forbes, who participated in the[Minsk2]  meeting [in February],

"According to the source, Putin recounted the overnight Minsk negotiations, saying: “[Poroshenko (right)] told me directly: 'Take the Donbass.' I replied: 'Are you out of your mind? I don't need the Donbass. If you don't need it, declare it independent,'” Forbes reported. .....

The source said Poroshenko had asked Putin to take financial responsibility for the region. Putin replied that would only be possible if the Donbass joined Russia and that as long as the region remained part of Ukraine, Ukrainian authorities were tasked with such matters." (Moscow Times : Apr. 06 2015)

Alexander ShokhinHowever,

"The head of the board of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, Alexander Shokhin (left), said Monday the comments published by Forbes were “a distortion” of Putin's words, RIA Novosti reported.
“The topic of discussion was relations between Russia and Ukraine and the implementation of the Minsk agreements, but I am not going to repeat [Putin's] words. … [The Forbes report] is an incorrect interpretation,” Shokhin said." (ibid Ivan Nechepurenko) (my emphasis)

The $64 question is, "Why has Forbes suddenly published this information?(06.04.2015)"
 
 Whilst the Ukrainian economy is in dire straits, nonetheless it is receiving critical financial assistance from the West, including from the IMF. Putin, on the other hand, has no access to international financial resources and thus the Russian consumer is paying a hefty economic price for his imperial ambitions.

Alexis Tsipras die 16 Ianuarii 2012.jpgPutin may be toying with the current Greek Prime minister, Alexis Tsipras (right), as he goes cap-in-hand to Putin to save his political skin as the Greek economy splutters on the edge of economic oblivion.

But even the rather contrived, and childish, tie-less Tsipras will soon discover that Putin is simply using him as a pawn to try and undo the sanctions of the EU against Russia in July.


The rather childish political antics of Tsipras is best illustrated by his "demand" that,

" .... Germany owes Greece nearly €279bn (£204bn; $303bn) in war reparations for the Nazi occupation during World War Two.

It is the first time Greece has officially calculated what Germany allegedly owes it for Nazi atrocities and looting during the 1940s." (BBC News : 7 April 2015)

Sigmar Gabriel, Germany’s minister for economic affairs and vice chancellorTo which the Germans have replied,

"...... the issue was resolved legally years ago.
...
Reacting to the Greek claim, German Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel (left) said it was "dumb" to link Greece's bailout by the eurozone with the question of war reparations." (ibid BBC News) (my emphasis)

It would seem, indeed, that Alexis Tsipras is taking over the mantle of Putin's cheerleader in the EU from the 'fragrant' Mogherini (right). Or is it simply that putin now has two cheerleaders in the EU.

 (to be continued)