Obama's "Kennedy moment" before he leaves the White House will fashion how Trump 'deals' with Putin's war with Ukraine.

In my very first blog entry "Putin andUkraine" (10/06/2014) I wrote that,

"As reported in the Russian press, during a session of the board of the FSB security service in Moscow on April 7, 2014, Putin urged that,

“We [the FSB] must clearly differentiate between legal opposition activity, as is in every democratic country, and extremism, which is built on hatred, inciting national and international discord, and defying the law and the constitution [of Russia]”.....(below: Putin addressing the FSB 2014) ,

These words ring hollow in international ears when currently applied to Ukraine because his Russian groups of provocateurs that have currently infiltrated Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kharkiv were actively inciting national discord, hatred, and defying the law and the constitution of Ukraine in an attempt to dismember Ukraine before the impending presidential elections of May 25th 2014. (first blog entry) (my emphasis)

I further remarked that,

"Unlike George Bush, who saw a sort of kindred soul when looking into Putin's eyes, Colin Powell was correct when he remarked that when he sees Putin he sees KGB."(ibid first blog entry)

More recently, Colin Powell once again stated that,

“I know Vladimir Putin well,” General Colin Powell said during a recent appearance at Harvard University. “He’s KGB through and through.” (Belfer Center : Fall/Winter 2015-2016) (my emphasis) (left: Colin Powell speaking at Belfer Center)

It should therefore come as no surprise that what Putin did to influence the Ukrainian presidential elections in 2014 he has now repeated in the US presidential elections of 2016, using 'cyber warfare' tactics instead of Kremlin-paid provocateurs.

RT has also been assiduously infiltrating the American public with 'conspiracy theory' T.V. to try and sow discord amongst the American public, discord that has found many eager ears and eyes as evidenced by such internet TV programs as the "Infowars" website run by Alex Jones, who regularly appeared on RT as an 'expert', and by whom Trump was rather sycophanticly interviewed in December of 2015 (Published on Youtube on 2 Dec 2015)

 

Trump is now the president-elect of the US. And throughout his election campaign he displayed an admiration for Putin, that even led him to call upon Putin to,

“Russia, if you’re listening, I hope you’re able to find the 30,000 emails that are missing,” Mr. Trump said during a news conference here in an apparent reference to Mrs. Clinton’s deleted emails. “I think you will probably be rewarded mightily by our press.” (Ashley Parker and David E. Sanger : New York Time : July 27, 2016) (my emphasis)

Putin obliged Trump by hacking into the Democratic computers during the presidential elections, giving all their 'hacked' data to Julian Assange of Wikileaks to publish on the internet, and which is now backfiring on Trump.

Recall that Paul Manafort wrote the 'Ukraine election script' for Victor Yanukovich in his presidential election against Yulia Tymoshenko in 2010, and for which he was handsomely paid.

Then in April 2016, Trump terminated campaign manager Corey Lewandowski and promoted Manafort to the position. Manafort gained control of the daily operations of the campaign as well as an expanded $20 million budget, hiring decisions, advertising, and media strategy. (Wikipedia)

No doubt, Manafort brought some of his experience in the Ukrainian presidential elections to bear on the Trump campaign.

Manafort was, however, forced to resign as Trump's campaign manger when it was revealed that,

"Earlier this week the Ukrainian National Anti-Corruption Bureau claimed a secret ledger showed Mr Manafort had been earmarked $12.7 million in off-the-books cash payments from the pro-Russian political party of Viktor Yanukovych, Ukraine's former president." (Harriet Alexander : The Telegraph : 19 August 2016) (my emphasis)

It was also revealed by Peter Stone, David Smith, Ben Jacobs, Alec Luhn and Rupert Neate that,

"For his part, Paul Manafort has been closely tied to Ukraine over the past decade, making millions from consulting work. He worked for Rinat Akhmetov, Dmitry Firtash and Oleg Deripaska, three major pro-Russia oligarchs, as an adviser." (The Guardian : Saturday 30 July 2016) (my emphasis) ((top) Manafort and Deripaska (bottom) Akhmetov and Firtash)

And now, as reported by Gregory Krieg and Jamie Gangel, 

"Paul Manafort has reemerged as a player in the fight to shape the new [Trump] administration, senior Republicans with knowledge of the transition tell CNN on Thursday, after resigning under pressure as the chairman of Donald Trump's campaign this summer. (CNN : December 1, 2016)

If Putin's war with Ukraine was unwittingly embroiled in the US presidential election by Donald Trump through his  employment of Paul Manafort as his campaign manager, it now emerges that president-elect Donald Trump has now placed Putin's war with Ukraine, in the person of Paul Manafort, firmly at the centre of the shaping of his presidential administration.

For Trump, however, the storm clouds are gathering.

As reported by Roland Oliphant and Nick Allen, 

 

"The White House launched an extraordinary attack on Donald Trump, suggesting that it was “obvious” he knew about Russian interference in the US presidential election, which it said had been personally authorised by Vladimir Putin." (The Telegraph :15 December 2016) (my emphasis)

 

President Barack Obama has now called for a full investigation of the Russian hacking into the Democratic Party computers during the presidential elections, vowing to take appropriate action against Russia.

 (video aired on 15 Dec. 2016)

 

 

Obama is been given a another chance to confront Putin in the manner of the late President Kennedy's confrontation with Khrushchev over the missile crisis in Cuba in October 1962.

 

  

This is Obama's "Kennedy moment" before he leaves the White House. It will fashion how president-elect Trump will 'deal' with Putin's war with Ukraine.

(to be continued)

Putin and Trump, together, are teetering at the abyss of incalculable global consequences

There are very few, if any, 'coincidences' in politics.

As president-elect Trump continues to consolidate his cabinet, with most of his critical appointees having attitudes that are 'highly' favourable towards Putin, 

UT reports that Putin's 'dyed-in-the-wool' Soviet foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov,

" ... says it is ‘unreal' to make the guns in the conflict zone go completely silent for a month, as demanded by Ukraine." (UT : Dec. 9, 2016) (my emphasis)

Following Putin's current 'on the hoof ' Ukrainian political and military script, and confirming Lavrov's recent pronouncement about the 'unreality' of silencing the rebel guns in the Donbas,

"The Russian-backed separatist forces attacked the positions of Ukrainian soldiers 31 times in the past 24 hours, Kyiv reported on December 10.

Using high-caliber artillery and assault weapons, the militants shelled numerous areas both in Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

They continued their attacks on the government-controlled Avdiivka, neighboring Donetsk, firing with grenade launchers and machine guns." (UT : Dec. 10, 2016) (my emphasis)

And now, 'hot off the press', so to speak, what but a few days ago was speculation has now come to pass.

David E. Sanger, Maggie Haberman and Clifford Krauss report that,

"Rex W. Tillerson, the chief executive of Exxon Mobil, whose extensive deal-making for the energy giant has plunged him into global politics from Yemen to Russia, is expected to be offered the secretary of state post this weekend by President-elect Donald J. Trump, according to two people close to Mr. Trump’s transition team." (New York Times : Dec. 10, 2016) (my emphasis) (right: Sechin, Putin, and Tillerson)

Co-incidence?

The longstanding links between Rex Tillerson and Putin spells the end of US sanctions against Putin's Russia. Tillerson is already on record as saying that,

"... the [US] sanctions [against Putin's Russia because of his annexation of Ukrainian Crimea, and his war with Ukraine in the Donbas,] are harmful for business after they halted an Exxon joint venture with Rosneft to drill for oil in the Kara Sea, in Russia’s sector of the Arctic Ocean." ( Andrew E. Kramer : New York Times : Dec. 7, 2016) (my emphasis)

If the looming prospect of  Rex Tillerson as US Secretary of State has dropped a bombshell into the lap of Poroshenko (left), then adding to Ukraine's woes is the fact that,

"In a letter sent to Martin Schulz, the panicked head of the European Council [Donald Tusk (right)] urged the legislature to compromise with national governments to unblock visa liberalisation – currently stopping the former Soviet states from gaining easy access to Europe.
.... Mr Tusk wrote: "At stake here are the legitimate hopes and aspirations of the nations who are our neighbours, as well as the reputation of the European Union, which has categorically and repeatedly committed itself to the issue. (Express : Wed, Dec 7, 2016) (my emphasis)

No-one could have predicted that Donald Trump, described by his "ghostwriter" of the "Art of The Deal" ,Tony Schwartz, as,

"... pathologically impulsive and self-centered...." (Jane Mayer : The New Yorker : July 25, 2016 Issue)

would be the president-elect of the US, and who also threatened his "ghostwriter" when he deigned to make public that he would not be voting for his past employer, Donald Trump. (cf: Jane Mayer)

Neither could anyone also have predicted that the Ukrainian revolution in Maidan in 2014 would play such a central and critical role in the unfolding of the prospective Trump presidency, as well as becoming an 'acid test' for the reputation of the EU.

If, before, I wrote that Putin's annexation of Ukrainian Crimea, and his current war with Ukraine in the Donbass, has led him to teetering on the abyss of setting off  incalculable global consequences,

"... it now seems that Putin and Trump, together holding hands, are now readying themselves to jump into the abyss of untold, and possibly cataclysmic, global consequences."

(to be continued)

  

Can Ukraine survive the political embrace of Trump and Putin?

"Putin and Mr. Trump spoke soon after his victory and a statement from Mr. Trump’s transition team said the president-elect told Putin he looked forward to “a strong and enduring relationship.” Observers caution that Putin’s interests are self-motivated and Russia’s incentive to interfere in U.S. politics won’t go away with Trump’s victory." (CBS News (Associated Press) : December 3, 2016) (my emphasis)

And now Walter Steinmeier, the Putinversteher German Foreign Secretary, is suddenly beginning to express concern about,


" ... what policies U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will adopt means there is little prospect of making much progress in implementing the Minsk ceasefire accord on Ukraine, Germany's foreign minister said.

Speaking in Brussels, Frank-Walter Steinmeier also told reporters on Wednesday that it was still unclear what the future relationship between Russia and the United States would be." (Sabine Siebold: Reuters : Wed Dec 7, 2016) (my emphasis)

If Trump has somewhat messed about with the brain of Steinmeier, causing him to be unclear what the future relationship between Russia and the United States would be, then Steinmeier should take a leaf out of the conclusions of a NATO meeting held yesterday with Pavlo Klimkin, Ukraine's Foreign Minister, at which it was concluded that,

" ... our meeting underscores NATO’s unwavering support for Ukraine. NATO Allies do not – and will not – recognise Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea. Today we discussed Russia’s continued aggressive actions, the importance of implementing the Minsk Agreements and NATO’s enduring support for Ukraine." (NATO : 07 Dec. 2016 ) (left: Jens Stoltenberg NATO (top) Pavlo Klimkin (bottom))

So whilst Steinmeier is 'throwing in the towel' over the implementation of the Minsk2 protocols, NATO is determined to continue its support for Ukraine in its war with Putin's Russia, and will continue to stress that the Minsk2 protocols be FULLY implemented .

In other words, Steinmeier is giving in to Trump's pre- and post- election 'flattering' statements about Putin, and his seeming determination to implement  “a strong and enduring relationship.” between himself and Putin.

Disconcertingly, Trump is already underlining his determination to develop “a strong and enduring relationship.” between himself and Putin by considering Rex Tillerson (right), Exxon Mobile’s CEO, as his Secretary of State (Madeline Farber : Fortune : December 5, 2016), the SAME Rex Tillerson who, in 2011,


" ...signed an agreement to extract oil and gas from the Russian Arctic, in the most significant U.S.-Russian corporate deal since U.S. President Barack Obama began a push to improve ties.

The pact, which includes an option for Rosneft to invest in Gulf of Mexico and Texan properties, ended any hope of Britain's BP reviving its deal with state-owned Rosneft to develop the same Arctic territory. " (Darya Korsunskaya and Braden Reddall: Reuters : Tue Aug 30, 2011)

Now bear in mind that,

"..The United States [together with the EU] decided in 2014 to impose sanctions on Rosneft and other Russian companies in response to Russia’s intervention in the war in eastern Ukraine..

The sanctions limit long-term lending and transfer of American technology for drilling offshore and shale oil deposits." ( Andrew E. Kramer : New York Times : Dec. 7, 2016) (my emphasis)

Kramer also reported that,

"... Mr. [Rex] Tillerson criticized the sanctions as harmful for business after they halted an Exxon joint venture with Rosneft to drill for oil in the Kara Sea, in Russia’s sector of the Arctic Ocean. (ibid Andrew Kramer)

How, then, will Rex Tillerson, should he become president-elect Trump's Secretary Of State, respond to the fact that,

"European Union diplomats say EU leaders are highly likely to prolong economic sanctions on Russia through July 31, 2017, when they meet in Brussels for a summit next week, [bringing a smile to the face of Ukraine President Petro Poroshenko (left)].

Several EU diplomats close to talks on the sanctions have told RFE/RL that EU leaders might give a green light for the six-month extension of the sanctions without a discussion when they meet on December 15." (Rikard Jozwiak : RFERL : December 06, 2016) (my emphasis)

Putin is hell bent on having the sanctions against himself, his cronies, and their companies, removed 'once and for all'. 

And as Vivian Salama (right) writes, 

" .. For the Russian president, relief from crippling sanctions is a gateway to the ultimate goal of establishing Russia as the political and economic equivalent of the United States. 

And the U.S. president-elect, who extolled Putin’s leadership during the campaign and called for a tempered approach to U.S.-Russia relations, may be a conduit to achieving that.

Despite Russia’s denials that it tampered in the U.S. election or even took sides, Trump’s victory has been greeted as a win of sorts for Moscow, too, by members of Putin’s own United Russia party." (The Star (Associated Press) : Sun., Dec. 4, 2016) (my emphasis)

In my last blog entry (Monday, 5 December 2016) I wrote that,

" ....Putin is moving very fast to present the incoming President of the US, Donald Trump, with a 'fait accompli' over Ukraine..."

What is also becoming more and more evident by the day is that president-elect Donald Trump is also moving very fast to implement his "strong and enduring relationship" with Putin.

Can the EU-US sanctions against Putin, and the Minsk2 protocols, survive the political embrace of Trump and Putin?

(to be continued)

Is Putin now "banking $$$" on success in the German Chancellor and French Presidential elections in 2017?

Since the election success of Donald Trump for the US Presidency, the international political tectonic plates continues to grind out political uncertainties as Trump by-passes the US State Department by using Twitter as his diplomatic channel.

A Twitter account, it would seem, is now taking on the mantle of a prime diplomatic and propaganda tool of many in the political world.

Thus it is that as soon as Matteo Renzi lost in his bid to change the Italian political establishment, Marine Le Pen, Putin's French Admirer',  quickly 'tweeted' to her political followers that,

"The Italians have disavowed the EU and Renzi. We must listen to this thirst for freedom of nations.”

And whilst Renzi is now licking his political wounds, Putin is moving very fast to present the incoming President of the US, Donald Trump, with a 'fait accompli' over Ukraine.

This is best summed up by his 'dyed-in-the-wool' Soviet Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov.

As reported by UT,

‘I'll be honest, I don't understand why the so called anti-terrorist operation is still going on in Ukraine and the leaders of the self-proclaimed republics are called terrorists and separatists', Lavrov said, according to Russian media agencies. " (UT : Dec. 3, 2016) (my emphasis)

And whilst Lavrov is feigning confusion,

"Russia-backed militants fired at the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine 44 times over the past 24 hours in all sectors, Ukrainian Anti-Terrorist Operation HQ reprts.

Hardest situation noted again in the Mariupol sector. Here Russian proxies used the heavy artillery of 152mm and 122mm calibre, hitting Ukrainian positions in the villages of Shyrokyne and Berdianske. Also mortar shelling and light armour attacks reported in this direction." (UT : Dec. 3, 2016) (cf also Unian Information Agency : 03 December 2016)

But Putin is not quite having it all his own way.

As reported by Interfax-Ukraine,

"The U.S. House of Representatives has approved the issue of $3.42 billion to the Pentagon in the coming financial year within the initiative to support security in Europe, according to the Deutsche Welle edition, with reference to the document posted on the website of the U.S. Congress.

According to the publication, the United States plans to pass to the preferential support of partners and allies in Europe to contain the Russian Federation.

According to the document, it is also planned to limit military cooperation between the United States and Russia" (Interfax-Ukraine : 03.12.2016) (my emphasis)

Added to which,

"Ukraine says it has successfully completed the first of two days of missile tests over the Black Sea, west of the Crimea peninsula." (BBC News : 1 December 2016) (my emphasis)

As to be expected, and as reported by Tom Batchelor,

"VLADIMIR Putin's warships have been dispatched to Crimea's western coastline in response to the start of Ukrainian missile tests nearby, as tensions in the region reach fever pitch." (Expess : Fri, Dec 2, 2016) (my emphasis)

And at the latest round of talks in Minsk about the implementation of Minsk 2, RFE/RL reports that,

"Talks in Minsk on resolving the conflict in eastern Ukraine have ended with the foreign ministers of Russia, Ukraine, France, and Germany all saying no new breakthroughs were made.(left: Lavrov, Klimkin, Ayrault, Steinmeier) .....

Lavrov also rejected the idea of setting up a militarized monitoring mission in southeastern Ukraine under the auspices of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). (RFE/RL : November 29, 2016) (my emphasis)

This rejection of an 'armed' OSCE monitoring mission by Lavrov no doubt sits very well with the current President of the OSCE, none other than the Putinversteher Steinmeier himself.

And it is has also been reported by Andreas Rinke and Andrea Shalal that Steinmeier is on the brink of becoming Germany's next President.

"Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives agreed on Monday to back Social Democrat Frank-Walter Steinmeier as Germany's next president, creating a vacancy at the foreign ministry at a critical moment in relations with Russia and the United States." (Reuters : Mon Nov 14, 2016)

Luxembuger Wort then reported that,

"...... Steinmeier could be replaced by European Parliament president Martin Schulz (right), a Social Democrat, as foreign minister." (Luxembuger Wort: Monday, 14 November, 2016) (my emphasis)

Is Merkel replacing Putinversteher Steinmeier with  Putinversteher Schulz?

Both Steinmeier and Schulz are protégé 's of Gerhard Schröder, former Chancellor of Germany who now works for Putin's Gazprom.

Since 1999, Schulz has been part of the SPD leadership, first under party chairman Gerhard Schröder (1999–2004), and currently under Sigmar Gabriel. (Wikipedia)

Many in the German SDP would like to see Schulz face Merkel in next year's upcoming  elections for German chancellor. 

He would, however, have a tough battle on his hands against Merkel. Her popularity rating in Germany is something that many western politicians only dream about. (cf Politico: 25/11/16)

Putin may not be eyeing the upcoming German Chancellorship election as much as he will be eyeing the French presidential elections in May of next year.

Which brings us back to the 'Putin lover', Marine Le Pen.

Helene Fouquet reported that,

"Marine Le Pen’s National Front party is reaching out to Russian banks for the 25 million euros ($27.7 million) it needs to bankroll its 2017 presidential campaign, the party’s treasurer Wallerand de Saint Just said.

“I will look for funds where I know I might get them,” Saint Just said in a telephone interview. “I found some financing there in 2014, so yes I am going to try again.” (Bloomberg : February 19, 2016) (my emphasis)

Let us also not forget that,

"Le Pen's party received a loan of 11 million euro from a bank with ties to Russia in 2014. At that time, French politicians and media claimed that the loan bought the party's public support of Russia's actions in Ukraine, the Meduza news agency reported.

Le Pen's party claimed that the results of the Crimea referendum in 2014, followed by the annexation of the peninsula by Russia, were legitimate, and also criticized the implementation of European Union's sanctions against Russia over its actions in Ukraine." (The Moscow Times : Feb 19, 2016) (my emphasis)

Can Le Pen do a 'Donald Trump'?

Putin is banking ($$$) on it! 

(to be continued)