Trump and Putin have the Sword of Damocles dangling above their heads

The much anticipated first meeting between Angela Merkel and Donald Trump has finally come and gone.

Last Friday (17 March 2017) they met at the White House and, at their press conference, it was apparent that they may have differing views on how to end Putin's war with Ukraine.

Trump's rather perfunctory statement about Ukraine made absolutely no mention of the Minsk2 protocols.

Rather, it was Merkel who mentioned Minsk2, adding that Trump also commits himself to Minsk2.

Strangely, Trump refused to shake Merkel's hand after their meeting, which may be an indication that all is not well between the Chancellor of Germany and the President of the US.

Could this, by any chance, have anything to do with the fact that, as stated by German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel (right) on the same day as the Merkel-Trump meeting that,

"It is important that Europe and the United States present a unified front and stick to the sanctions against Russia until there is progress in implementing the Minsk agreements," Gabriel said in an interview with the Passauer Neue Presse newspaper, to be published on Saturday." (Andrea Shalal : Reuters : Sat Mar 18, 2017) (my emphasis)

Recall that on 13th March 2017, the EU prolonged sanctions over actions against Ukraine's territorial integrity until 15 September 2017 (EU Council : 13/03/2017)

Was it this that Merkel relayed to Trump and that stuck in his throat, especially when viewed against his disgraced, and sacked, National Security Advisor, Michael Flynn? How, now, is he to pay back Putin for getting him into the White House?

 
This seeming chasm between the EU and Trump and his White House clan over Putin's war with Ukraine, and what measures should be taken to resolve it, is about to become more apparent as the US Congress and Senate continue to unravel Putin's role in influencing the outcome of the US presidential elections.

As also reported by CNN,

"Ukrainian prosecutors want to question Paul Manafort (left) in connection with a corruption investigation and have made repeated requests for assistance from US authorities, CNN has learned.

Prosecutors in Kiev said they have made seven separate appeals over the past two years for help in questioning President Donald Trump's former campaign manager, including letters to FBI Director James Comey and US Justice Department officials. Ukrainian officials said the US has not responded to those requests." (CNN : March 19, 2017) (my emphasis)

 

To-day's Senate hearing on Russia's involvement in the 2016 election may lead to the granting of the request of Ukrainian prosecutors to question Manafort on his role in the Yanukovich regime just prior to the Maidan revolution.

As reported by Juliette Kayyem (right),

"On Monday, the House Intelligence Committee will hold its first, much-anticipated public hearing on Russia's involvement in the 2016 election. The hearing is significant because it will determine whether all the noise regarding Russia, Trump and the relationship between the two is grounds for further investigation.

There is quite a bit to look out for. But five key players will determine how much bigger this story gets. (James Comey, Sally Yates, David Nunes, Adam Schiff, Michael Flynn, and Donald Trump himself)" (CNN : March 20, 2017) (my emphasis)

And whilst the un-ravelling of the Trump White House clan's connections to Putin and the Kremlin continues apace,

 

"The Russian occupation forces mounted 26 attacks on the Ukrainian positions in the Mariupol sector. The village of Vodiane came under fire from heavy machine guns, grenade launchers and anti-aircraft guns. Moreover, at about 18:00 Kyiv time, the enemy started shelling there, using 122mm artillery systems.
Heavy machine guns were used to fire on Ukrainian positions near the villages of Pavlopil, Shyrokyne and Hnutove, while grenade launchers were used near the village of Lebedynske. The towns of Maryinka and Krasnohorivka came under mortar fire." (UNIAN : 20 March 2017) (my emphasis)

Both Trump and Putin have the Sword of Damocles dangling above their heads.

(to be continued)

Will the upcoming Merkel-Trump meeting throw Ukraine under the bus?

Roberta Rampton and Steve Holland (left) report that,

"President Donald Trump will ask German Chancellor Angela Merkel for her views on how the United States can help resolve the conflict in eastern Ukraine when they meet next week, senior Trump administration officials said on Friday.

Trump is also interesting in hearing Merkel's view on how to deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the officials said. (Business Insider UK (Reuters) : Mar. 10, 2017) (cf also: Reuters, VOA, CNBC, New York Times) (my emphasis)

Let us for a moment recall that just before Trump's inauguration as President of the US there was a bit of a 'spat' between Trump and Merkel.

"U.S. President-elect Donald Trump said in a newspaper interview published on Sunday that German Chancellor Angela Merkel had made a "catastrophic mistake" with a policy that let a wave of more than one million migrants into her country." (Reuters : Sun Jan 15, 2017) (my emphasis)

to which Merkel had replied,

“We Europeans have our fate in our own hands.” Speaking during a press conference with New Zealand’s prime minister, Bill English, she said: “He has presented his positions once more. They have been known for a while. My positions are also known.” (Philip Oltermann and Alec Luhn : The Guardian : Monday 16 January 2017) (my emphasis)

So what, exactly, has precipitated this sudden change in Trump's attitude towards Angela Merkel? 

Why, suddenly, is Ukraine to be high on their agenda?

Recall that in her maiden speech at the UN, Trump's UN ambassador Nikki Hayley (left) stated that,

"The United States continues to condemn and call for an immediate end to the Russian occupation of Crimea," said Nikki Haley, President Donald Trump's envoy to the world body. "Crimea is a part of Ukraine. Our Crimea-related sanctions will remain in place until Russia returns control over the peninsula to Ukraine." (Nicole Gaouette and Richard Roth : CNN : February 3, 2017) (my emphasis)

Since her speech at the UN nothing has been forthcoming from Donald Trump about Putin's annexation of Ukrainian Crimea, nor about Putin's continuing war in eastern Ukraine (Donbas) until now, that is.

In light of the impending investigations in the US about the links between Putin's meddling in the US Presidential elections and key members of  Trump's election officials, Trump himself now has to begin to distance himself from what these investigations may bring to light.

More importantly, is this the beginning of Trump distancing himself from Putin?

Is this why he is now wanting to cozy up to Merkel for her knowledge about 'how to deal with Putin'? 

(March 8th, 2017)

And where, oh! where, is Trump's Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson (left)?

It would be interesting to see whether Tillerson, a long-time-friend of Putin, will also be part of Trump's conversations with Merkel, especially on 'how to deal with Putin' and, more importantly, what to do about eastern Ukraine (Donbas) and Ukrainian Crimea.

 
Anders Åslund (right) writes that,

"The Kremlin is utilizing the absence of foreign policy leadership in Washington to advance quickly on Ukraine’s eastern front. If Washington does not wake up fast, Russia may have moved the facts on the ground too far. Ukraine is all too likely to be the first big Western cost of the Trump administration." (The Hill : 09/03/17) (my emphasis)  

 Underscoring what Anders Åslund wrote is the fact that,

"Russia-backed rebels have killed two soldiers and wounded more than a dozen others, according to Ukraine's army, in a new uptick in violence across eastern Ukraine despite the latest ceasefire.

Andriy Lysenko (left), a Ukrainian military spokesman, said on Saturday that two servicemen were killed and 16 more injured in the past 24 hours, accusing separatists of using heavy weapons against government troops." (AlJazeera : 11 March, 2017) (my emphasis)

Will the Merkel-Trump meeting next Friday uphold the opinion of Anders Åslund that "Ukraine is all too likely to be the first big Western cost of the Trump administration."?

We can but wait and see. 

(to be continued)

The scarlet thread of Maidan continues to tighten around Putin and Trump

The scarlet thread of Maidan continues to weave itself into the current political upheavals in the US.

Putin's gamble that getting Trump elected President of the US would finally unshackle himself from the US-EU sanctions imposed upon himself, his 'siloviki' clan in the Kremlin, and the failing Russian economy, following Putin's invasion and annexation of Ukrainian Crimea, and his invasion of eastern Ukraine (Donbas), is beginning to unravel very fast.

Following hot on the heels of the resignation of Michael Flynn, Trump's National Security Adviser who promised Putin's ambassador to the US, Sergei Kislyak, that those sanctions would soon disappear, we now have US Attorney General Jeff Sessions being forced to recuse himself from a Senate and House of Congress investigation into the connections between Trump's White House appointees and Putin himself. (above: Flynn, Kislyak, and Sessions)

Questioned about his meetings with Kislyak both during the US election campaign, and after Trump was elected, Sessions responded,

"He said he had spoken with the Russian ambassador as a US senator and not as Mr Trump's "surrogate".
...
He said: "I never had meetings with Russian operatives or Russian intermediaries about the Trump campaign."

Mr Sessions said that during his meeting with Mr Kislyak they talked about terrorism and then "somehow the subject of Ukraine came up". (BBC News : 3 March 2017) (my emphasis)

As this direct link between Putin's Kremlin and US President Donal Trump continues to unravel, Germany, France, and Holland anxiously approach critical elections.

The call by Putin's 'friends' in the EU for sanctions against Russia to be lifted grows ever more strident.

As reported by Andrew J Barden, Boris Groendahl , and Jonathan Tirone,

"Austrian Chancellor Christian Kern called for a rethink on sanctions imposed on Russia, saying that the regime of penalties over Kremlin-backed incursions in Ukraine has failed to yield enough progress." (Bloomberg : 23 February 2017) (my emphasis)

Even Merkel's optimism about reaching even a modicum of success in getting Minsk2 off the ground seems to be fading.

"“We cannot give up on the principle of territorial integrity,” Merkel told the annual Munich Security Conference on Saturday. “We owe that not only to Ukraine, but to many other countries and to ourselves.” A political solution is needed “and I’m ready to devote a lot of time and energy to this, and to keep working at it even in the face of disappointments,” she said." (Alan Crawford : Bloomberg : 19 February 2017) (my emphasis)

Political storm clouds are descending not only upon Donald Trump, but also upon the EU.

Putin's initial euphoria when he invaded and annexed Ukrainian Crimea, started his war with Ukraine in the Donbas, and got Donald Trump elected President of the US, is also fading fast.

His 'bromance' with Trump is heading for a rather speedy divorce.

And throughout all of this, the scarlet thread of Maidan continues to weave itself.

(to be continued)

Putin, Steve Bannon, and Ukraine

Who is really in charge of Trump's White House? In the EU, and for Ukraine in particular, this has become a critical question.

In the US, Steve Bannon (left) is viewed as 'the brain of Trump', the Rasputin whispering in the ear of Trump. 

So who is Steve Bannon? Steve Bannon is a man who says that 'darkness is good'.

He refers to himself as an 'economic nationalist', and someone who wants to 'de-construct the administrative state'.

Steve Bannon, and his ideas of 'economic nationalism', unerringly mirrors both his pivotal position in  the White House as well as the economic philosophy of Herman Goering, Hitler's second-in-command.

Bannon's 'economic nationalism' is no more nor no less than the economic philosophy of 'autarky', the economic philosophy of self-sufficiency, the four-year economic plan implemented by the total novice, Herman Goering.

 
But perhaps the most disturbing aspect of Bannon is his admiration for some of the beliefs of Putin's Rasputin, Alexander Dugin, and his philosophy of Eurasianism.

As Erasmus of the Economist reported,

"Mr Bannon said:

When Vladimir Putin, when you really look at some of the underpinnings of some of his beliefs today, a lot of those come from what I call Eurasianism; he's got an adviser [Alexander Dugin] who harkens back to Julius Evola and different writers of the 20th century who are really supporters of the traditionalist movement which really eventually metastasised into Italian fascism...

We, the Judeo-Christian West, really have to look at what [Putin] is talking about as far as traditionalism goes, particularly the sense of where it supports the underpinnings of nationalism..." (The Economist : Nov 20th 2016) (my emphasis)

Recall that this is the same Alexander Dugin (right) who told BBC News in 2014 that,

"....war between Russia and Ukraine "is inevitable" and has called on President Vladimir Putin to intervene militarily in eastern Ukraine "to save Russia's moral authority". (Dina Newman : BBC News : 10 July 2014) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, that,

"He has been labelled the brains behind President Putin's wildly popular annexation of Crimea." (ibid Dina Newman) (my emphasis)

 It is therefore no co-incidence that it was the US State Department who yesterday,

"....condemned an incident in eastern Ukraine where pro-Russian rebels held civilian monitors at gunpoint.

The OSCE said on Friday that the rebels had surrounded one of its teams near Donetsk, opening fire and seizing a drone they were trying to launch.

The US statement called on Russia and the separatists to observe a fragile six-day-old ceasefire." (BBC News : 26 February 2017) (my emphasis)

From the White House there was a 'deafening silence' about this serious breach of the recent ceasefire sponsored, in part, by non other than that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov.

This 'deafening silence' from the White House about Putin's rebel proxies in eastern Ukraine (Donbas) holding civilian monitors of the current and fragile ceasefire at gunpoint yet, again, illustrates that the links between senior members of the Trump administration and both Putin and his Kremlin 'siloviki' remains intact.

Which brings us back to my initial question, "Who is really in charge of Trump's White House?"

Donald Trump or Steve Bannon?

(to be continued)



 
 

Putin is pulling out all the stops to pressure Trump into 'doing a private deal' with him over Ukraine.

In December of last year, before Trump was inaugurated as President of the US,  Elana Schor and Austin Wright (left) wrote that,

"Incoming White House chief of staff Reince Priebus on Tuesday declined to say whether Trump would keep them [sanctions against Russia] in place, telling MSNBC that “you have to just wait and see.”

Even if the bipartisan House-passed sanctions bill gains Senate traction next year, however, Trump could easily get around it thanks to a provision called a “national security waiver.” It allows the president to ignore provisions of the law if “such a waiver is in the national interests of the United States.” Such a waiver is a common feature of sanctions and other national security-related bills." (Politico : 13/12/2016) (my emphasis)

Then, last Sunday,  Megan Twohey and Scott Shane (right: Scott and Twohey) reported that,

"A week before Michael T. Flynn resigned as national security adviser, a sealed proposal was hand-delivered to his office, outlining a way for President Trump to lift sanctions against Russia. (New York Times : 19 Feb., 2017) (my emphasis)

Lena Surzhko-Harned (left), an expert on Ukrainian politics at University of Pittsburgh, is of the opinion that,

“[This] proposal and the way it’s being unveiled reeks of Kremlin manipulation...Find a low-ranking financially interested goon, prop him up, give him instructions and let the games begin. While I wonder to what extent Trump understands the nuances of the Ukrainian conflict, I sure hope that his new security adviser ... understands broader implications of playing into the Kremlin’s hands in Ukraine.” (Julia Ioffe : The Atlantic : Feb 20, 2017) (my emphasis)

And now, suddenly following close on the heels of this hand-delivered "sealed proposal" to the White House, James Marson (incl. Michael Rothfeld and Alexandra Berzon) reports that,

"Ukraine’s former president, living in self-imposed exile in Russia, has sent President Donald Trump a peace plan on ending the conflict in Ukraine, in the newest freelance effort by a [ex-]Ukrainian politician to reach out to the White House....

The letter is unlikely to be taken seriously or have much chance of success, analysts said, because Mr. Yanukovych (right) has little support in Ukraine and little credibility in the West after he fled to Russia, from where he makes infrequent statements that chime with the Kremlin’s positions." (todayEvery : 22 Feb., 2017) (my emphasis)

This is the same Yanukovich who precipitated the Maidan revolution after stealing billions from the Ukrainian coffers, and who then escaped into the protective embrace of Putin.

It can also be no co-incidence that, notwithstanding the ceasefire in eastern Ukraine (Donbas) recently brokered by no less than that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, Jake Hanrahan reports that,

"A new cease-fire agreement was implemented in Ukraine Monday [20 Feb., 2017], aiming to stem the escalating clashes between Ukrainian fighters and Russian-backed separatists on the ground. Despite hopes that this planned effort would calm recent tensions, there were a reported 200 cease-fire violations on Tuesday night alone." (Vice News : Feb 22, 2017) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, as Euan McKirdy (left) reports,

"A day after the head of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) warned the ceasefire had failed, German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel urged Kiev and Moscow to hold fast to the agreement.

Both sides had agreed to the withdrawal of "heavy weapons and full compliance" with the ceasefire, which was supposed to start Monday, Gabriel said. (Centralillinoisproud : Feb 22, 2017 ) (my emphasis)

But, ominously,

"Speaking Tuesday at the headquarters of the United Nations, OSCE Secretary General Lamberto Zannier (right) revealed there had been "no signs of the withdrawal of the weapons." (ibid Euan McKirdy) 

Julia Ioffe argues that,

" ...[I]t would stand to reason that the Kremlin would try to get as much of what it wants in Ukraine as possible before the whole Trump-Putin romance falls apart.

According to my U.S. sources, the Russians started putting sticks in the wheels of the Minsk ceasefire negotiations in October, when they saw Trump’s election as increasingly likely, hoping that with Trump in the White House, they would get more favorable terms in Ukraine." (ibid Julia Ioffe : The Atlantic) (my emphasis)

As more information of the close links between the White House and Putin continues to emerge daily, and which is beginning to cause serious consternation even among Republican senators and congressmen, Putin is now pulling out all the stops to pressure Trump into 'doing a private deal' with him over Ukraine.

For Putin, time is running out fast.

Trump, himself, is beginning to skate on thin ice.

The Trump-Putin 'bromance' is teetering on a cliff-edge.

(to be continued)

Trump's secret proposals to help lift sanctions off Putin's back.

It is now beginning to emerge that there is a  'behind-the-scenes' cabal emerging in the White House, secretly fronted by Paul Manafort, for the lifting of sanctions against Putin's Russia.

As reported by  Megan Twohey and Scott Shane (left: Scott and Twohey),

"A week before Michael T. Flynn resigned as national security adviser, a sealed proposal was hand-delivered to his office, outlining a way for President Trump to lift sanctions against Russia.

[T]he proposal, a peace plan for Ukraine and Russia, remains, along with those pushing it: Michael D. Cohen, the president’s personal lawyer, who delivered the document; Felix H. Sater, a business associate who helped Mr. Trump scout deals in Russia; and a Ukrainian lawmaker trying to rise in a political opposition movement shaped in part by Mr. Trump’s former campaign manager Paul Manafort." (New York Times : Feb. 19, 2017) (my emphasis) (right: Manafort, Cohen, Sater)

Let us recall that Olena Zerkal, Deputy Foreign Minister of Ukraine, stated 5 days after Trump was inaugurated as US President that,

" "Because we are talking about the future of our country, we don't want to be excluded from the negotiations [between Trump and Putin]," Deputy Foreign Minister Olena Zerkal (right) told Reuters. "We don't want to be a card (to be played). We want to be an actor."

"I don't believe in gentleman's agreements anymore," Zerkal said, noting Russia had violated an earlier deal - the 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances, under which Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan gave up nuclear weapons in exchange for assurances of territorial integrity - when it annexed Crimea. (Andrea Shalal, Sabine Siebold and Andreas Rinke : Reuters : Wed Jan 25, 2017)

The recent revelation about the Manafort and Co. so-called "peace proposals" that Trump and Putin could implement to end Putin's war with Ukraine, comes closely on the heels of US Vice-President Pence stating at the recent Security Conference held in Munich that,

" .. the U.S. is committed to Ukraine and does not recognize Russia's annexation of the Crimean peninsula." (Nikita Vladimirov : The Hill : 18 Feb. 2017) (my emphasis)

Whilst Pence also,

"... reiterated that the U.S. stands by the peace terms previously established by the Minsk agreements." (ibid Nikita Vladimirov)

he also ominously stated that,

""Know this: The United States will continue to hold Russia accountable [for the war in Ukraine], even as we search for new common ground, which as you know, President Trump believes can be found,"(ibid Nikita Vladimorov) (me emphasis)

Is this "common ground" a direct reference to the Manafort & Co. "peace proposals" that is now emerging, and that will bury the Minks2 proposals which Trump ostensibly supports?  

Let us recall that Trump suggested, immediately after taking office, that,

" .... he might do away with some sanctions if Russia helps in battling terrorists and achieving other goals important to Washington." (ibid Andrea Shalal, Sabine Siebold and Andreas Rinke) (my emphasis)

At the G20 Meeting of Foreign Ministers that was recently held in Germany, Tillerson stated that,

"The United States will consider working with Russia when we can find areas of practical co-operation that will benefit the American people ..." 

No doubt, lifting the current sanctions against Russia will, in Tilleron's mind, "benefit the American people" even if, in the process, the Ukrainian people are trampled upon.

As Elana Schor and Austin Wright wrote in December of last year,

"“Putin is not interested in a reset with the Trump administration that doesn't involve the lifting of sanctions, so I read the Tillerson nomination as a clear sign of intent that Trump is going to remove sanctions.” (Politico : 13/12/2016) (my emphasis)

What is of significance about the Lavrov-Tillerson meeting at the G20 summit is that,

"At the meeting, on the sidelines of a G20 foreign ministers meeting in Bonn, reporters were present during Lavrov's opening remarks to Tillerson, the former CEO of Exxon Mobil Corp, but were quickly ushered out when Tillerson began to speak." (CNBC (Reuters report) :Thursday, 16 Feb 2017) (my emphasis)

 

 Tillerson seem to have the same antipathy towards reporters as does his boss, Donald Trump.

 Was the Manafort & Co. proposals discussed between them?

Yesterday the BBC reported that,

"President Vladimir Putin has announced that Russia is temporarily recognising passports and other identity documents issued by the self-proclaimed rebel republics in eastern Ukraine." (BBC : 19 February 2017) (my emphasis) 

Furthermore that,

"Sergei Lavrov also announced that heavy military hardware would be withdrawn from the region, and said a ceasefire would come into force on Monday.

He is currently in Munich for a Nato conference." (ibid BBC) (my emphasis)

This recognising of passports issued by Putin's rebel proxies in eastern Ukraine (Donbas) mirrors exactly what then Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, Putin's glove-puppet, did after Russia's war with Georgia in 2008.
 
"On 25 August 2008, the Russian parliament unanimously voted in favour of a motion urging President Medvedev to recognise Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states. On 26 August, Medvedev signed decrees recognising the two states, saying that recognising the independence of the two entities "represents the only possibility to save human lives." (Wikipedia) (my emphasis)

By recognizing the passports and other identity documents prepared by the Kremlin for his rebel-held territories in eastern Ukraine (Donbas), Putin is setting up the same gambit that his glove-puppet, Dmitry Medvedev, used after his war with Georgia and, in so doing, Putin will treat his rebel-held territory in eastern Ukraine (Donbas) as independent states that can station Russian forces on their territory, if they so wish.

This is precisely what has happened in the Georgian breakaway territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. 

This rather stale threat of Putin will simply not work.

Ukraine is NOT Georgia.

One can then only assume that this recognition of Kremlin-inspired documents for Putin's rebel-held teritories in eastern Ukraine (Donbas) is for the benefit of Donald Trump to use as an argument to justify the implementation of the Manafort & Co. proposals that have suddenly appeared, and the consequent removal of sanctions against Putin's Russia.

After all, did US Secretary of State Tillerson not recently say that,

"The United States will consider working with Russia when we can find areas of practical co-operation that will benefit the American people ..."

(to be continued)

Putin's nightmare of a Trump impeachment

It is now public, and international, knowledge that Putin intervened in the recent US presidential elections on behalf of getting Donald Trump elected President of the US.

Putin's interventions succeeded, and champagne corks were popping in the Kremlin and in the Russian Duma when Trump won the US presidential race.

But, like the unraveling of the Watergate scandal in 1972, that ultimately led to the impeachment of the then US President, Richard Nixon (right), the links between members of the Trump White House team and Putin is also beginning to unravel.

The Watergate scandal revolved around a break-in of the Democratic National Committee headquarters by burglars who, when caught, were found to have cash on them that the FBI discovered had a direct connection to a slush fund "used by the Committee for the Re-Election of the President (CRP), the official organization of Nixon's campaign." (Wikipedia)

Similarly, Putin's primary aim in giving all those emails that the Kremlin had 'electronically burgled' (hacked) from the Democratic Party to the pre-election Trump team was to ensure that once Trump was in the White House then he would ensure that the sanctions against Russia, that were precipitated by his invasion and annexation of Ukrainian Crimea, and his subsequent invasion of eastern Ukraine (Donbas), would be lifted.

What is now happening to the Trump administration rather unerringly mirrors what happened at Watergate.

Things are beginning to unravel within the Trump administration, to the utter dismay of Putin and his Kremlin 'siloviki'.
 
"Michael Flynn, Donald Trump's national security adviser, [has been forced to resign] from his post after less than one month in office following reports that he had misled Vice-President Mike Pence about his contacts with Russia." (Ruth Sherlock and Chris Graham : The Telegraph : 14 February 2017) (my emphasis) 

Specifically, it now transpires that Michael Flynn's telephone discussions with Russian US ambassador, Sergei Kisilyak (right),

 "...suggested that they had been more substantial, and concerned sanctions the Obama administration was about to impose on Moscow for interference in the presidential elections. Intelligence officials claimed that Flynn had given the impression the sanctions might be lifted once the Trump administration came to office on 20 January." (Julian Borger : The Guardian : Tuesday 14 February 2017) (my emphasis)

And as of yesterday (15/2/2017) the unraveling of the Putin-Trump connection continues apace.

Putin's gambit to help Trump get elected, and to then get Trump to help him with removing the US and EU sanctions against  himself and his 'siloviki' clan because of his ill-fated Crimean and eastern Ukraine (Donbas) invasions, seems to be fading fast.

The scarlet thread of Maidan continues to wrap itself even tighter around both Putin and Trump.

It is now Putin's real nightmare if, as these events continue to unfold, Trump becomes the 'Nixon' of 2017.

(to be continued)

Trump is in lock-step with Putin's imperial ambitions in Ukraine.

Sooner or later it had to happen.

The previous German Foreign Minister, Walter Steinmeier, was always pushing for the Minks2 protocol about the holding of elections in eastern Ukraine(Donbas) even before the removal of  Putin's soldiers and their military equipment from the Donbas, or the FULL return of the Ukrainian border into the hands of the Ukrainian authorities.

Now we have the German Ambassador to Ukraine arguing that,

"Holding elections in the occupied territory of the Donbas region is possible even without withdrawal of the Russian military units from there. Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Germany to Ukraine Ernst Reichel (left) said this in an interview to RBK Ukraine.

"Optionally, the elections in Donbas can take place only when there will be no Russian troops or on each of the city administration will be posted Ukrainian flag. Without a doubt, it is rather difficult to imagine - the local elections without security. I am convinced that it is not something impossible; it all depends on the conditions", said Ambassador of Germany." (112UA : 7 February 2017) (my emphasis)

This 'sudden' announcement from the German Ambassador comes close on the heels of US President Trump,

" ..... [promising] to “find out” the nature of the pro-Russian forces fighting the Ukrainian government, casting doubt over whether they are controlled by Russia. (Damien Sharkov (right): Newsweek : 7/2/2017) 

Sharkov further reports that,

"Contrary to Poroshenko’s claims that the rebels are emboldened and advancing on frontline village Avdiivka, Trump said “we don’t really know exactly what that is.”

“They’re pro-forces,” Trump said of the separatists groups in an interview that aired on Monday night (6/2/2017). But added it was not certain that these forces were commanded by the Kremlin—an allegation Russia denies but European governments have long since accepted. (ibid Sharkov)

What was disconcerting during this interview is that Trump regarded the US as somehow morally equivalent to Putin's Russia.

This particularly disturbed Senator McCain, a staunch supporter of Ukraine since Putin invaded and annexed Ukrainian Crimea, and started his war with Ukraine in the Donbas. (McCain interview with  Greta Van Susteren: 7 February, 2017)

Even Trump's new pro-Putin Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, is on record as saying during his confirmation hearing that,

“It [Putin's Russia] has invaded Ukraine, including the taking of Crimea, and supported Syrian forces that brutally violate the laws of war,” Tillerson said.... " (Damien Sharkov : Newsweek : 11 January 2017) (my emphasis)

And recall that on (1/2/2017), Trump's US ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, the 116 Governor of South Carolina,

 
"...offered a strong condemnation of Russia in her first appearance at the UN Security Council on Thursday, calling on Moscow to de-escalate violence in eastern Ukraine and saying that US sanctions against Moscow would remain in place until it withdraws from Crimea." ( Nicole Gaouette and Richard Roth : CNN : 2/2/2017) (my emphasis)


Trump is trying very hard to dis-entangle himself from the international truth that Putin and his Kremlin 'siloviki' dictate the actions of his Russian soldiers and pro-Putin proxies in the Donbas.

Almost as a last resort Trump now wishes to "find alternative facts" in the Donbas by,

"[promising] .. to “find out” the nature of the pro-Russian forces fighting the Ukrainian government, casting doubt over whether they are controlled by Russia." (ibid Damien Sharkov (7 February 2017)

To which that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov (right), recently

"... praised U.S. President Donald Trump’s approach to the Ukraine crisis, saying it marked a big improvement from that of his predecessor Barack Obama, in comments likely to worry Kiev." (Jack Stubbs : Huffington Post (Reuters): 7 Feb., 2017)

I would hazard a guess that a central figure hovering in the background of the Trump administration, none other than Paul Manafort himself (see video below), will be the one that Trump will task with "finding those alternative facts" in the Donbas that will help Trump dis-entangle himself from the scarlet thread of Maidan.

This is the same Paul Manafort who has,

"...... denied secret links with Moscow calling the allegation “an outrageous smear being driven by Harry Reid and the Clinton campaign”. (Julian Borger : The Guardian : 11 January 2017) (my emphasis)

Two weeks ago, Andrea Shalal, Sabine Siebold and Andreas Rinke reported that,

"Ukraine must have a say in any deal struck between Russia and the United States aimed at ending violence in eastern Ukraine, its deputy foreign minister [Olena Zerkal (right)] said on Wednesday.

Ukraine, which has been battling pro-Russian separatists in its eastern Donbass region for nearly three years, is worried that U.S. President Donald Trump will cut Kiev out of any peace negotiations as he attempts to improve ties with Moscow.

"Because we are talking about the future of our country, we don't want to be excluded from the negotiations," Deputy Foreign Minister Olena Zerkal told Reuters. "We don't want to be a card (to be played). We want to be an actor." (Reuters : Wed Jan 25, 2017)

 With 

• the German Ambassador to Ukraine, Ernst Reichel, proposing that elections in the Donbas can be held even without the removal of Russian soldiers, 
• US President Trump is considering sending a scouting party to eastern Ukraine to obtain 'alternative facts' to cast doubt on the internationally recognized fact that Putin and his Kremlin 'siloviki' are directing pro-Putin proxies and Russian soldiers in the Donbas, and
• Lavrov is singing the praises of Trump in the Kremlin

Olena Zerkal is right to be worried.

Trump is in lock-step with Putin's imperial ambitions in Ukraine.

(to be continued)

Trump and Putin are 'completely independent' yet are both joined together in narcissistic, political, and avaricious temperament.

Oh! What a tangled web we weave

When first we practice to deceive

 

Yesterday Trump's US ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, the 116 Governor of South Carolina,

"...offered a strong condemnation of Russia in her first appearance at the UN Security Council on Thursday, calling on Moscow to de-escalate violence in eastern Ukraine and saying that US sanctions against Moscow would remain in place until it withdraws from Crimea." ( Nicole Gaouette and Richard Roth : CNN : 2/2/2017) (my emphasis)

 

During her confirmation hearing to become the US ambassador to the UN, Haley added that,

"...... unless Russia takes positive steps, the United States should not lift sanctions on the country."

But when asked about whether the U.S. should impose new sanctions on Moscow — for its alleged interference in the U.S. election, among other reasons — she hedged, saying that’s a decision that requires consulting with the incoming president and his national security advisers. 

She also defended Trump's apparent fondness for Russia to an extent, saying he wanted to find areas of cooperation with Moscow, and that battling Islamist terrorists was one such area" ( Nahal Toosi : Politico: 18/01/17) (my emphasis)

Hardly had Nikki Hayley finished her first speech as US ambassador to the UN than news started breaking that,

"The Treasury Department has sent early signals of easing sanctions on Russia, allowing U.S. companies to do business with Russia's security service. (Putin's FSB)" ( Peter Alexander: MSNBC  (Andrea Mitchell Reporting) 2/2/17) (my emphasis)

Part 1

 

Part 2

What is interesting to note towards the end of Part 2 is that Trump seems ostensibly to be a Harley Davidson fan, much like Vladimir Putin. 

The question is, "Has Trump ever been a Harley Davidson fan, like Putin is?"

Vladimir Putin rides a Harley Davidson with a biker gang in Russia 

(The Telegraph : 30 Aug 2011)

And whilst

• Nikki Haley is calling for sanctions against Putin not to be lifted because of his war with Ukraine and his illegal annexation on Ukrainian Crimea, whilst at the same time sympathising with Trump's  apparent fondness for Russia, to an extent
• the US Treasury Department is gearing up to do business with Putin's FSB, possibly the start of the total easing of US sanctions against Putin and his 'siloviki' clique, irrespective of Nikki Haley's UN speech yesterday, and,
• Donald Trump is signalling to Putin his acknowledgement (sanctions easing payback ?) of Harley Davidson motorcycles (US presidential election?),

Senator John McCain (below left) continues to urge Trump to,

"....  use his authority under an existing defense policy law to provide lethal assistance to Ukraine.

"Vladimir Putin's violent campaign to destabilize and dismember the sovereign nation of Ukraine will not stop unless and until he meets a strong and determined response," McCain wrote.

McCain also urged Trump to expand current sanctions against Russia that were put in place after its annexation of Ukraine's Crimea region in 2014. (Doina Chiacu : (Reuters) Mail Online : 2 February 2017 |) (my emphasis)

Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin somewhat reminds me of the first Siamese twins, Chang and Eng Bunker.

"[Whilst] the brothers were joined at the sternum by a small piece of cartilage, and though their livers were fused, they were independently complete."

Determined to live as normal a life they could, Chang and Eng settled on their small plantation and bought slaves to do the work they could not do themselves. 

 Using their adopted name "Bunker", they married local women on April 13, 1843. Chang wed Adelaide Yates (1823-1917), while Eng married her sister, Sarah Anne (1822-1892). The twins also became naturalized American citizens.[(Wikipedia) (my emphasis)

Like Chang and Eng, Trump and Putin are 'completely independent' yet, at the same time, are both joined together in narcissistic, political, and avaricious temperament.

Can Senator McCain overcome 'the slaves that Trump has bought' to do his bidding?

(to be continued)

The war between Putin and Ukraine will determine who is in the driving seat at the White House ... Putin or Trump.

In my blog entry of yesterday I suggested that,

"Why would Putin have his soldiers and rebel proxies in eastern Ukraine (Donbas) suddenly unleash themselves against Ukrainian forces immediately after that Trump-Putin telephone tête-à-tête?

Is this why Trump deliberately stopped short of endorsing [Teresa May's] commitment to continued sanctions against Russia, irrespective of the threat of John McCaine to codify these sanctions into US law?

Is Putin setting up Trump to be the knight in shining armour that will end the war between Russia and Ukraine in the Donbas and, in return, have the sanctions against Russia, himself, and his 'siloviki' clique, lifted? (blog entry 31/1/2017)

Andrew Roth (right), of the Washington Post, also suggested that,

"There have been suggestions that the Kremlin would test Trump early in his presidency with an international crisis or take advantage of the chaos in Washington to consolidate gains in southeast Ukraine. 

But with Trump now occupying the White House, the Kremlin may see the negotiating table as the best way to get what it wants now: a repeal of the sanctions imposed after the annexation of Crimea and recognition of Russia as a great power that can dominate a sphere of influence that includes Ukraine." (Washington Post : 31/1/2017) (my emphasis)

And 5 hours ago (1/2/2017) Tom Burridge (left) reported that,

"The UN Security Council has warned of a "dangerous deterioration" in eastern Ukraine and called on warring sides to halt the violence.

The council said renewed fighting was having a "severe impact" on civilians.

Fighting in the frontline town of Avdiivka has left thousands of residents without water or power in freezing conditions.

Ukraine says it is preparing a possible evacuation of the town to avoid a humanitarian crisis." BBC News : 1/2/2017)

In an article entitled ," While Trump Fiddles, Putin Steps Up The War In Ukraine", Nolan Peterson (right) has also reported that,

"Ukrainian officials take seriously the possibility of a full-scale Russian invasion.

Poroshenko, who was on a diplomatic trip to Germany, cut short his visit.

“The president has cut short his visit to Germany because Russian fighters’ attacks on Avdiivka have caused an emergency situation, which may turn into a humanitarian disaster,” Tsegolko, Poroshenko’s press secretary, wrote on Twitter Monday.

Five Ukrainian soldiers died in the attacks Sunday, and nine were wounded, according to the Ukrainian military. Two more soldiers died during fighting in Avdiivka Monday morning, according to Kiev." (Newsweek (Daily Signal article): 31/1/2017) (my emphasis)

Terrell Jermaine Starr also reported that,

"In what is clearly a shot at Trump, Ukrainian Petro Poroshenko is seen on video asking, “Who would dare talking about lifting the sanctions in such circumstances?” (Foxtrot Alpha : 31/1/2017) (my emphasis)

One could speculate that Putin is somewhat testing Trump with his escalation of violence in eastern Ukraine (Donbas).

However, there remains the nagging doubt of,

"What, exactly, does Putin have on Trump that makes Trump so reluctant to nail the US flag to the pole of a continuation of sanctions against Putin's Russia?"

The confusion in the Trump administration cannot be the sole factor that accounts for Trump publicly expressing reluctance to even suggest that sanctions against Putin will remain.

Recall that even though, in his recent joint press conference with British Prime Minister Teresa May, she was quite adamant in confirming that, together with the rest of the EU, sanctions against Putin should remain in place until the Minsk2 proposals are fully implemented, Trump rather poorly skirted around this subject.  

After an American Presidential election, the elected president usually enjoys a honeymoon period of near unconditional support from the American public.

Since the inauguration of Donald Trump as President of the US, this honeymoon period seems to have ended even before it has begun.

How Trump and his pro-Putin political advisors deal with the situation that is unravelling in eastern Ukraine will determine exactly who is in the driving seat in the Oval Office, Putin or Trump.

(to be continued)