The war between Putin and Ukraine will determine who is in the driving seat at the White House ... Putin or Trump.

In my blog entry of yesterday I suggested that,

"Why would Putin have his soldiers and rebel proxies in eastern Ukraine (Donbas) suddenly unleash themselves against Ukrainian forces immediately after that Trump-Putin telephone tête-à-tête?

Is this why Trump deliberately stopped short of endorsing [Teresa May's] commitment to continued sanctions against Russia, irrespective of the threat of John McCaine to codify these sanctions into US law?

Is Putin setting up Trump to be the knight in shining armour that will end the war between Russia and Ukraine in the Donbas and, in return, have the sanctions against Russia, himself, and his 'siloviki' clique, lifted? (blog entry 31/1/2017)

Andrew Roth (right), of the Washington Post, also suggested that,

"There have been suggestions that the Kremlin would test Trump early in his presidency with an international crisis or take advantage of the chaos in Washington to consolidate gains in southeast Ukraine. 

But with Trump now occupying the White House, the Kremlin may see the negotiating table as the best way to get what it wants now: a repeal of the sanctions imposed after the annexation of Crimea and recognition of Russia as a great power that can dominate a sphere of influence that includes Ukraine." (Washington Post : 31/1/2017) (my emphasis)

And 5 hours ago (1/2/2017) Tom Burridge (left) reported that,

"The UN Security Council has warned of a "dangerous deterioration" in eastern Ukraine and called on warring sides to halt the violence.

The council said renewed fighting was having a "severe impact" on civilians.

Fighting in the frontline town of Avdiivka has left thousands of residents without water or power in freezing conditions.

Ukraine says it is preparing a possible evacuation of the town to avoid a humanitarian crisis." BBC News : 1/2/2017)

In an article entitled ," While Trump Fiddles, Putin Steps Up The War In Ukraine", Nolan Peterson (right) has also reported that,

"Ukrainian officials take seriously the possibility of a full-scale Russian invasion.

Poroshenko, who was on a diplomatic trip to Germany, cut short his visit.

“The president has cut short his visit to Germany because Russian fighters’ attacks on Avdiivka have caused an emergency situation, which may turn into a humanitarian disaster,” Tsegolko, Poroshenko’s press secretary, wrote on Twitter Monday.

Five Ukrainian soldiers died in the attacks Sunday, and nine were wounded, according to the Ukrainian military. Two more soldiers died during fighting in Avdiivka Monday morning, according to Kiev." (Newsweek (Daily Signal article): 31/1/2017) (my emphasis)

Terrell Jermaine Starr also reported that,

"In what is clearly a shot at Trump, Ukrainian Petro Poroshenko is seen on video asking, “Who would dare talking about lifting the sanctions in such circumstances?” (Foxtrot Alpha : 31/1/2017) (my emphasis)

One could speculate that Putin is somewhat testing Trump with his escalation of violence in eastern Ukraine (Donbas).

However, there remains the nagging doubt of,

"What, exactly, does Putin have on Trump that makes Trump so reluctant to nail the US flag to the pole of a continuation of sanctions against Putin's Russia?"

The confusion in the Trump administration cannot be the sole factor that accounts for Trump publicly expressing reluctance to even suggest that sanctions against Putin will remain.

Recall that even though, in his recent joint press conference with British Prime Minister Teresa May, she was quite adamant in confirming that, together with the rest of the EU, sanctions against Putin should remain in place until the Minsk2 proposals are fully implemented, Trump rather poorly skirted around this subject.  

After an American Presidential election, the elected president usually enjoys a honeymoon period of near unconditional support from the American public.

Since the inauguration of Donald Trump as President of the US, this honeymoon period seems to have ended even before it has begun.

How Trump and his pro-Putin political advisors deal with the situation that is unravelling in eastern Ukraine will determine exactly who is in the driving seat in the Oval Office, Putin or Trump.

(to be continued)