Has Putin wrapped himself up in a fog of greater or lesser uncertainty?

Prussian military analyst Carl von Clausewitz (left) in his posthumously published book, Vom Kriege (1832), outlines what has become defined as the "fog of war". He describes the "fog of war" as,

"War is the realm of uncertainty; three quarters of the factors on which action in war is based are wrapped in a fog of greater or lesser uncertainty. A sensitive and discriminating judgment is called for; a skilled intelligence to scent out the truth." (Wikipedia) (my emphasis)

The recent flooding on the internet of "highly classified Pentagon documents" revealing, amongst other things, the strategy of Ukraine in its upcoming offensive against Putin's forces, has caused an outbreak of public anger both in the US and in Ukraine, as well as amongst Ukraine's international supporters in its war with Putin.

Update 1 : BBC News : 12 April 2023

As reported by Natasha Bertrand and Kylie Atwood (right),

"Highly classified Pentagon documents leaked online in recent weeks have provided a rare window into how the US spies on allies and foes alike, deeply rattling US officials, who fear the revelations could jeopardize sensitive sources and compromise important foreign relationships.
...
 The official also pointed out that it was alarming to see one of the documents from February titled “Russia-Ukraine: Battle for the Donbas Region Likely Heading for a Stalemate Throughout 2023.” The document notes the challenges with assessing the “endurance of Ukraine’s operations.” (CNN : 10 April 2023) (my emphasis)

 

CNN : 10 April 2023

Update 2: Alex Hern has just reported that,

"A damaging batch of documents leaked from the Pentagon appears to have been initially shared on the video game chat platform Discord in an effort to win an argument about the war in Ukraine, according to open-source intelligence analysts.
...
The bizarre provenance of the leak may seem unusual but it is far from the first time that a dispute between gamers has sparked an intelligence breach, with the overlapping communities causing problems for military and gaming platforms alike" (The Guardian : 11 April 2023) (my emphasis)

This "leak of Pentagon documents" has, no doubt, emboldened Putin to accelerate his "scorched earth" strategy against Ukraine. 

As reported by Arpan Rai and Maryam Zakir-Hussain (left),

"A Ukrainian general says Russia is sending more elite troops including special forces to support the Wagner Group in the battle for Bakhmut, amid signs of fatigue.
...
He added that Vladimir Putin’s soldiers are “actively using their artillery and aviation, destroying the city that they cannot capture”. (The independent : 11 April 2023) (my emphasis)

Underscoring Putin's "scorched earth" strategy against Ukraine, Putin's 'glove puppet' Dmitry Medvedev's latest contribution to "political debate" stated that Ukraine was "not needed by its citizens themselves".

As reported by John Varga,

"In his latest contribution to "political debate", the former deputy prime minister [Dmitry Medvedev] once again took aim at Ukraine's status as a sovereign state.

He claimed that it will cease to exist because neither the USA, Europe nor Africa needed a "post-Soviet republic".

He added that the country was "not needed by its citizens themselves". (Express : 8 April 2023) (my emphasis)

More disconcerting,

"In language that closely resembled Nazi-era terminology, [Dmitry Medvedev]  branded the country's political leaders as "under-Ukrainians". The German Nazis called the Jews "Under people" (Untermenschen), as well as the Slavs." (ibid John Varga) (my emphasis)

If the current "leaked Pentagon documents" have emboldened Putin to continue with his 'scorched earth' strategy against Ukraine, it would seem that Chinese President Xi Jinping and French President Emmanuel Macron have made a "political deal" during their recent tête-à-tête in Beijing in which :-

• Xi Jinping would pressure Putin to negotiate an end to his war with Ukraine 
• whilst Macron would try to distance the EU from the current spat between the US and China over Taiwan.

As reported by Jennifer Rankin (right),

"Emmanuel Macron has flown into a storm of criticism after he said Europe should not become a “vassal” and must avoid being drawn into any conflict between the US and China over Taiwan.
...
Rahman added that Macron’s interview was being seen as a parting gift to Xi – “another doomed attempt (after Putin) to sweet-talk an autocrat” – and suggested the French president may have been trying to boost his poll ratings in France by emulating De Gaulle. (The Guardian : 10 April 2023) (my emphasis)

 

Microsoft Start (Firstpost) : 11 April 2023

What is rather puzzling is that notwithstanding the recent flooding on the internet of "highly classified Pentagon documents", and an acceleration of Putin's 'scorched earth" strategy against Ukraine, Tim McNulty reported that,

"Vladimir Putin has reportedly declared a willingness to open negotiations with NATO over Ukraine during a meeting with İbrahim Kalın, the Presidential Spokesperson of Turkey. The Kremlin's representative, Dmitriy Peskov, announced that during the meeting Putin admitted that Russia was not looking to escape talk over Ukraine indefinitely, and was prepared to enter into talks to end the conflict which has left thousands dead and displaced millions of people." (Express : 7 April 2023) (my emphasis)

Interestingly, Tim McNulty further reported that the day BEFORE Putin ostensibly declared his "willingness" for some sort of 'peace talks' to end his war with Ukraine,

"..... Chinese leader Xi Jinping called Thursday for peace talks over Ukraine after French President Emmanuel Macron appealed to him to "bring Russia to its senses," but Xi gave no indication Beijing would use its leverage as Vladimir Putin's diplomatic partner to press for a settlement. (ibid Tim McNulty)

 As Carl von Clausewitz wrote in 1832,

"War is the realm of uncertainty; three quarters of the factors on which action in war is based are wrapped in a fog of greater or lesser uncertainty."

Pacing around in his bunker, has Putin wrapped himself up in a fog of greater or lesser uncertainty in his ongoing war with Ukraine?

 

(to be continued)

For how long can Putin still cling to power?

At the start of Putin's 2023 war with Ukraine, Emmanuel Macron, former banker and currently President of France, constantly pushed for 'talks' with Putin as Putin's forces relentlessly bombarded the civilians and infrastructure of Ukraine with swarms of his Iranian UAV "doodlebug" bombers.

And today, in light of Xi Jinping's recent meetings in Moscow with Putin, Macron has jetted off to Beijing on a 3-day visit to China to meet with Xi Jinping, with essentially the same political framework of "talks" as he initially had with Putin himself to end Putin's war with Ukraine.

BBC News : 5 April 2023 : YouTube

As reported by Clea Caulcutt, Lili Bayer and Suzanne Lynch,

"Within hours of touching down in China Wednesday, French President Emmanuel Macron made clear one of the main objectives of his visit— ensuring China plays a role in forging peace in Ukraine.

“China, with its close relationship with Russia, which has been reaffirmed in recent days, can play a major role,” he told members of the French community in Paris. “Do we agree with everything [in China’s plan]?” he said, referring to China’s 12-point peace plan unveiled in February. “No,” he said. “However it shows … a will to play a responsible role and try to build a pathway to peace.” (Politico : 5 April 2023) (my emphasis)

As with his "talks" with Putin shortly after Putin's invasion of Ukraine, "others are more skeptical about China's intentions". (ibid Clea Caulcutt, Lili Bayer and Suzanne Lynch)

As Clea Caulcutt, Lili Bayer and Suzanne Lynch, further report,

"Similarly, British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly (left) told POLITICO on the fringes of the NATO summit that while there are “certain elements” within the plan that Britain supports, the U.K. would like to see China “making good on those statements and actually working towards demanding that Russia respects those things (e.g. Ukraine's territorial sovereignty) as well.”  (Politico : 5 April 2023) (my emphasis) 

President Zelensky (right: Zelensky and wife) has renewed hopes of 'peace talks' with Putin by suggesting, as reported by Christian Oliver, that,

"Ukraine renewed Western hopes for peace talks last night after suggesting it could be 'ready' to discuss the future of Crimea with Russia once Kyiv's forces reached the border of Putin's illegally occupied peninsula.

Andriy Sybiha, a top advisor to President Volodymyr Zelensky and deputy head of his office, told the Financial Times that Kyiv could soon be 'ready' to enter talks." (Mail Online : 5 April 2023) (my emphasis)

Putin's current state of mind would indicate, however, that "peace talks" with Zelensky would indeed be akin to Putin signing his own 'political' death warrant.

As reported by Rachael Bunyan (left),

"[Gleb] Karakulov (an officer in the Kremlin leader's secretive elite personal security service) depicted Putin as an increasingly isolated leader who lives in an 'information vacuum' in heavily guarded residences, which he called 'bunkers'.
...
He said Putin's paranoia has deepened since he invaded Ukraine and detailed how the despot ordered a bunker to be set up at the Russian Embassy in Kazakhstan and secured with a secure communications line last October.   

'It is a kind of paranoia,' Karakulov said. 'He is pathologically afraid for his life.'" (Mail Online : 5 April 2023) (my emphasis)

NBC News : 5 April 2023

Underlining Putin's current state of mind, Christian Oliver reports that,

 "Oleksiy Danilov (left), the secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council, said the West must be on high alert, having in the past failed to be ready for the collapse of the Soviet Union.

He said Kyiv believes Russia is going to fall apart in 'spectacular' fashion within the next few years.
...
He said Russia has lost its power over once-loyal allies in Asia, with China now waiting for the collapse of Russia to take the Siberian Far East where there are significant Chinese populations." (Mail Online : 4 April 2023) (my emphasis) (c.f. also: The Times : 3 April 2023)

As also reported by Rhiannon Du Cann (right),

"Professor Galeotti told Express.co.uk that the 70-year-old President’s regime is now so “brittle” that an inevitable crisis will most likely be the cause of his fall.

He said: “It looks still very tough but it's that much less flexible, less able to cope with crises. The point is that one of the guaranteed things in politics is you’ll be confronted with the unexpected at some point.

“When that happens, I think that Putin and Putin’s regime will be that much less able to deal with it. I have no idea if that’s going to be in a month, or a year, or a decade’s time.” (Express : 30 March 2023) (my emphasis)

Added to which, as reported earlier by Yahoo News (The Kyiv Independent),

"Despite Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s claim that the Russian economy is expected to grow in 2023, “retail sales remain in a contraction that’s already more drawn out than its declines” during the Covid-19 pandemic, according to Bloomberg’s latest report.

Bloomberg reported the consumer sector accounts for about half of Russia's economy.

In January, retail sales in Russia shrank an estimated 10.7% from last year, “falling for a 10th straight month in a stretch longer than their crash at the height of the pandemic in 2020,” according to the report. Bloomberg also says that in December the real wages “probably fell” at the “sharpest pace in five months.” (Yahoo News (The Kyiv Independent) : 1 March 2023) (my emphasis)

For how long can Putin still cling to power?

(to be continued)

Is Putin now ready to "destroy the west" ?

One of the more insidious developments in Putin's Russia is the extent to which Putin's "Thought Police" will go to ensure that the people of Russia do not even think that his war with Ukraine is wrong or unjust.  

As reported by Politico,

"A man sentenced to two years in prison in a case launched against him after his daughter [Masha Moskalyova, 13 (left)] drew an anti-war picture at school is on the run from the authorities, a spokeswoman for a provincial court told journalists.

Earlier Tuesday, a judge in the town of Yefremov in Russia’s Tula region, south of Moscow, found Alexei Moskalyov guilty of discrediting the Russian army on social media and sentenced him to two years in a penal colony." (Politico : 28 March 2023) (my emphasis)

BBC News : 25 March 2023 : YouTube

As Alessandra Scotto di Santolo (left) reported earlier,

"The West should be prepared for more provocations by the Russian President as he grows increasingly unhinged from reality, a former NATO chief warned.

Former NATO Secretary-General Lord George Robertson urged Western leaders to be prepared for escalation by Vladimir Putin as he tore the Russian President's "neurotic" propaganda apart. He said Putin has increasingly become more immersed in his deluded idea of Russian history." (Express : 18 March 2023) (my emphasis)

This warning by former NATO Secretary-General Lord George Robertson is exemplified by the report of James Gregory, that,

"Nato has condemned Russia's "dangerous" and "irresponsible" rhetoric after Vladimir Putin's decision to station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus.

The organisation is "closely monitoring" the situation and said the move would not lead it to change its own nuclear strategy." (BBC News : 27 March 2023) (my emphasis)

And as reported by Espreso TV,

"Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov (left) told the Russian elite at a holiday dinner in late December that the war against Ukraine will be long
...
"I am guessing you are expecting me to say something," Peskov raised his glass and added: "Things will get much harder. This will take a very, very long time." (Expreso TV : 28 March 2023) (my emphasis) (cf. also: Pjotr Sauer and Andrew Roth : The Guardian : 28 March 2023)

Notwithstanding the recent "bromance" meeting between Putin and China's President Xi Jinping, Marco Giannangeli reports that,

"Russia's “new generation of leaders” is increasingly concerned about Moscow’s alliance with China, experts are warning. Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping entered into a strategic partnership just before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year, in which both proclaimed their friendship to be “without limits’’.
...
But as soon as the mini-conclave [between Putin and Xi Jinping] was over, Xi sent telegrams to the leaders of all five Central Asian countries, inviting them to participate in the first “China-Central Asia” summit in May.
...
The shift has not been lost on sections of Russia’s elite who have been warning since 2015 that close relations with China would come at too high a price. (Express : 25 March 2023) (my emphasis)

Crux : 25 March 2023 : YouTube

Russia Media Monitor : 3 March 2023 : YouTube

This political maneuver of Xi Jinping in inviting all five Central Asian countries to participate in the first “China-Central Asia” summit in May has somewhat overturned Putin's euphoria about his recent meeting with Xi Jinping.

Putin's blinkered and deluded idea of Russian history, that precipitated his war with Ukraine, has now caught him on the political back foot regarding the key five Central Asian republics – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan - which were part of the Soviet Union and have traditionally relied on Russia to provide security guarantees. (ibid Marco Giannangeli )

It is therefor no wonder that Russia's “new generation of leaders” is increasingly concerned about Moscow’s alliance with China, experts are warning. (ibid Marco Giannangeli )

More dangerously, however, the statement by Dmitry Peskov that, "Things will get much harder. This [war with Ukraine] will take a very, very long time.", coupled with Putin's decision to station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, more than underscores the fact that Putin is growing increasingly unhinged from reality.

NATO and the US may believe that Putin will not press the 'nuclear button' but, as reported by Tom Watling,

"A top Putin aide [Nikolai Patrushev (left), ex head of Russia's FSB] has claimed that Russia is ready to “destroy the West” with nuclear weapons if the war in Ukraine persists, adding that the “collapse of the European Union is not far off” (Express : 28 March 2023) (my emphasis)  

What we have here is something of a contradiction between between Dmitry Peskov and Nikolai Patrushev.

Peskov stated that, "This [war with Ukraine] will take a very, very long time" (Espreso TV) whilst Patrushev is now stating that, "Russia is ready to “destroy the West” with nuclear weapons if the war in Ukraine persists". (Tom Watling)

It would seem that Putin's 'siloviki' has also become unhinged from reality and infected with Putin's deluded idea of Russian history.

And as a result Masha Moskalyova, a 13 yo girl, is forcibly removed from her father, who is then subsequently sentenced to two years in prison, and all because of his daughter's anti-war picture.

Is Putin now ready to "destroy the west" ? 

(to be continued)

The world is not being fooled by Putin and Xi Jinping.

And so, for his three day visit to Moscow, the "Bromance" between China's President Xi Jinping and Putin has caught the attention of the world audience.

As reported by Helen Davidson and Justin McCurry,

"Xi’s trip to Moscow has been viewed as a major boost for his strategic partner Putin, who is subject to an international criminal court warrant over accusations of unlawfully deporting Ukrainian children. The Chinese leader is expected to continue to position himself as a potential peacemaker in the Ukraine war during his two-day visit to Russia – his first state visit since the invasion." (The Guardian : 21 March 2023) (my emphasis) 

Jennifer Jett : NBC News : 20 March 2023

As Jennifer Jett also writes,

"Frustrated by what it sees as the U.S.’s determination to thwart its rise as a global superpower, China is pushing ahead with efforts to promote a new international order that has Beijing at its center.
.....
Now its leader, Xi Jinping, is in Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin, signaling Beijing’s growing embrace of its rising power on the global stage and the potential for it to further deepen conflict with the U.S. and its allies." (NBC News : 20 March 2023) (my emphasis)

This internationally public "bromance" between Putin and Xi is taking place against the backdrop of, as reported by Richard Ashmorex and Tom Watling,

"Ukraine's military has reported it carried out an audacious attack on Russian cruise missiles being transported by rail through the illegally annexed Ukrainian Crimea peninsula last night. Dramatic footage posted online (Anton Gerashchenko ) shows an explosion reportedly close to the Crimean town of Dzhankoi in the northern part of the region which has been under occupation by Russian forces since 2014." (Express : 21 March 2023) (my emphasis)

Anton Gerashchenko : Twitter : 20 March 2023

Added to which,  as reported by Jessie Yeung (left),

"Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida (right) is making a surprise trip to Ukraine on Tuesday to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky – a day after Chinese leader Xi Jinping met his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Moscow.
.....

His trip is the first time a Japanese prime minister has visited a country or region with ongoing fighting since World War II, NHK reported. It will also be the first visit to Ukraine by an Asian member of the G7 grouping and the first by a US ally in the region." (CNN News : 21 March 2023) (my emphasis)

And if this were not enough to somewhat 'sour' the expectations of Putin and Xi Jinping during their 'bromance' meetings today, Lili Bayer reports that,

"Turkey and Hungary announced Friday that they will sign off on Finland’s NATO membership — removing the biggest barrier to Finland’s joining the alliance but leaving Sweden’s bid languishing.

“We have decided to initiate the ratification process in our parliament,” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said in a press conference in Istanbul alongside his Finnish counterpart Sauli Niinistö." (Politico : 17 March 2023) (my emphasis) (left: Sauli Niinistö and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)

Now recall that in my last blog entry (15 March 2023) I reported that,

"Media in Finland have reported that Prime Minister Sanna Marin is prepared to discuss providing U.S.-made fighter jets to Ukraine. Marin, who visited Kyiv on March 10, said Helsinki plans to purchase 64 modern F-35A fighters to replace 62 Hornet fighters. The Hornets could be provided to Ukraine, Marin has said, although she noted that discussions are at a preliminary stage." (RFERL : 11 March 2023) (my emphasis)   

We now also hear from James Gregory (right) that,

"More than a dozen European Union member states have agreed to supply Ukraine with at least one million artillery shells over the next year.

The plan, worth €2bn in total, was agreed in Brussels on Monday.

Ukraine had told the EU it needed 350,000 shells a month to hold back advancing Russian troops and launch a counter-offensive this year.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba hailed the "game-changing decision" from the EU." (BBC News : 20 March 2023) 

This " game changing decision" by the EU is followed closely on the heels, as reported by Danielle Ong,

"The International Criminal Court (ICC) last week issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin and children's rights commissioner Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova over alleged war crimes involving the forced deportation and adoption of Ukrainian children.

In a news release, the ICC said both Putin and Lvova-Belova are "allegedly responsible for the war crime of unlawful deportation of population (children) and that of unlawful transfer of population (children) from occupied areas of Ukraine to the Russian Federation."

Piotr Hofmanski : ICC : Youtube : 19 March 2023

Whilst Putin and Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova (left) may dismiss this 'international' arrest warrant out of hand, let us remind ourselves that they now infamously share allegations of 'war crimes' with the Nazi 'war criminals' at the Nuremberg Trials in 1946. (cf: Wikipedia) 

 

Contrary to their expectations, the world is not being fooled by Putin and Xi Jinping.   

(to be continued)

Has Putin now lit the fuse for WW3?

On Friday 10th March, Xi Jinping was unanimously elected as head of the ruling Communist Party of China.

As reported by Oli Smith (left),

"Xi Jinping will reign over China for at least the next five years after he was handed a historic third five-year term as Chinese president. Mr Xi was unanimously elected as president for a third term on Friday in what was seen as a rubber-stamp vote at the National People's Congress (NPC). The nearly 3,000 members of the NPC - China’s largely ceremonial parliament - voted for President Xi, with no one voting against him." (Express : Friday March 10 2023) (my emphasis)

Al Jazeera : 11 March 2023 : YouTube

Coincidentally (?), on the same day as Xi Jinping was elected as President of China, Firstpost reports that,

"A top Chinese think tank close to the nation’s armed forces has predicted that the Russia-Ukraine conflict will end before autumn of 2023, according to a report.

Beijing considered the assessment to be solid enough to try to assume the role of a mediator in the standoff before it potentially ends, said Russia Today citing Japan’s Nikkei newspaper." (Firstpost : 10 March 2023) (my emphasis)

Underlining the Chinese Think Tank predicting that Putin's war with Ukraine will end before the autumn of this year, Reuters reports that,

"Chinese President Xi Jinping plans to travel to Russia to meet his counterpart Vladimir Putin as soon as next week, people familiar with the matter said, which would be sooner than previously expected.

Plans for a visit come as China has been offering to broker peace in Ukraine, an effort that has been met with scepticism in the West given Beijing's diplomatic support for Russia. (Reuters : 13 March 2023) (my emphasis)

What is even more interesting, as reported by the South China Morning Post,

"A senior White House official has praised a reported plan by Chinese President Xi Jinping to speak with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and confirmed US President Joe Biden's "willingness" to schedule a talk with the Chinese leader.

"We have been encouraging President Xi to reach out to President Zelensky because we believe that the PRC and President Xi himself should hear directly the Ukrainian perspective and not just the Russian perspective on this," National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said on Monday." (Yahoo News (South China Morning Post) : 14 March 2023) (my emphasis)

WION : 14 March 2023 : YouTube

As I wrote in my previous blog entry (9 March 2023), Gideon Rachman (left) reported that,

"Xi Jinping has called Vladimir Putin his best friend. But now the Russian leader is in urgent need of help from China. Putin’s army is bogged down in Ukraine and running short of ammunition.

Should Xi prove that he is a friend indeed by supplying Russia with weapons? China’s decision will say a lot about how it sees the future of the world.

A choice to supply Russia with weapons would suggest that China believes that intensified rivalry with the US is unavoidable — and perhaps desirable. By contrast, a decision not to give Russia weapons would indicate that China still believes that tensions with the US are manageable and that globalisation can be saved." (Financial Times : 6 March 2023) (my emphasis)

That Putin is in need of urgent help is best exemplified by the fact that,

"Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova (right) has confirmed infighting in the Kremlin inner circle and that the government has lost centralized control over the Russian information space, a Washington-based think tank reports.
...
The assessment of The [Russian] Institute for the Study of War's says Zakharova acknowledged the Kremlin cannot replicate the Stalinist approach of establishing a modern equivalent to the Soviet Information Bureau to centrally control Moscow's message because of fighting among unspecified Kremlin “elites.”  (John Bacon and Jorge L. Ortiz : USA Today : 12 March 2023) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, as reported by Snejana Farberov,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin has resorted to retrofitting hundreds of decades-old Soviet tanks to be battle-ready — as the country’s stockpile of modern tanks dwindles.

Andrey Gurulev (left), a member of the Russian parliament, released a video Saturday showing his recent visit to a repair plant outside the remote city of Chita that has been tasked with modernizing 800 obsolete T-62M tanks, reported the Russian outlet Chita.ru." (New York Post : 13 March 2023) (my emphasis)

 

(New York Post : 13 March 2023)

Against this backdrop of Kremlin infighting, and Putin now having to resort to the refurbishment of decades old Russian tanks,  Alan Charlish and Anna Wlodarczak-Semczuk report that,

"Poland could give Ukraine MiG-29 fighter jets in the coming four to six weeks, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on Tuesday, suggesting that Kyiv's allies were moving closer to an agreement on the next step in their military support for the country" (Reuters : 14 March 2023) (my emphasis) 

Furthermore, as reported by RFERL,

"Media in Finland have reported that Prime Minister Sanna Marin is prepared to discuss providing U.S.-made fighter jets to Ukraine. Marin, who visited Kyiv on March 10, said Helsinki plans to purchase 64 modern F-35A fighters to replace 62 Hornet fighters. The Hornets could be provided to Ukraine, Marin has said, although she noted that discussions are at a preliminary stage." (RFERL : 11 March 2023) (my emphasis)          

Could it be these critical developments in favour of Ukraine that has forced a top Chinese think tank close to the nation’s armed forces to predict that the Russia-Ukraine conflict will end before autumn of 2023? 

Could it also be these developments that have made Putin lash out, as reported by Maighna Nanu, that,

"Ben Wallace, the British Defence Secretary, has urged Moscow to respect international airspace, after the United States said that Russia had caused one of its drones to crash into the Black Sea on Tuesday." ? (MSN (The Telegraph) : 15 March 2023) (my emphasis)

Al Jazeera : 15 March 2023 : YouYube

As also reported by Helen Sullivan (left),

"Secretary of the national security and defence council of Ukraine, Oleksiy Danilov, has said that the drone incident shows that Russia is willing to expand its war.

He posted to social media to say “The incident with the American MQ-9 Reaper UAV, provoked by Russia in the Black Sea, is Putin’s signal of readiness to expand the conflict zone with the involvement of other parties.” (The Guardian : 15 March 2023) (my emphasis)

Has Putin now lit the fuse for WW3?

(to be continued)

"Has Putin now become Xi Jinping's poodle"

Putin's latest onslaught against the people of Ukraine has all the hallmarks of a man desperate to cling onto power.

As reported by Hanna Arhirova and Elena Becatoros,

"Russia unleashed a missile barrage targeting energy infrastructure across Ukraine early Thursday, hitting residential buildings and killing at least five people in the largest such attack in three weeks, officials said." (AP News : 9 March 2023) (my emphasis)

Significantly, as reported earlier by Aoife Walsh,

"The head of Russia's Wagner private army says it is not getting the ammunition it needs from Moscow, as it seeks to gain control of Bakhmut.
...
But Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin (right) says his army's lack of ammunition could be "ordinary bureaucracy or a betrayal". (BBC News : 7 March 2023) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, as also reported earlier,

• Russia's "total collapse" is not beyond realms of possibility, a military expert has claimed, as Ukraine continues to fight valiantly in the east of the country. Colonel Richard Kemp, a former infantry commander, has explained how taking back the Crimean Peninsula could be key to inflicting defeat on the Russians. (Charlie Bradley : Express : 2 March 2023) (my emphasis)
• The Russian military has lost many of its best-trained and most-skilled soldiers in Ukraine, where casualties continue to mount after more than a year of fighting, and it is having a crippling effect on the combat power of Moscow's forces.
  
  Multiple units long considered to be "elite" forces within the Russian military have suffered serious losses during the conflict as these forces are continually recommitted to the fight, often to carry out tasks inconsistent with their purpose." (Jake Epstein  : Business Insider : 3 March 2023) (my emphasis)
• Even more significantly, as reported by  Charlie Bradley and Christopher Sharp,
  
  "Russian military officers are reportedly refusing to launch a new attack on the Ukrainian town of Vugledar after suffering heavy losses in a tank battle. It has been claimed that Russia lost around 130 tanks and armoured fighting vehicles in a recent offensive to take the town, located in the Donetsk oblast." (8 March 2023) (my emphasis)

And on the International Front, Putin isn't faring much better.

As reported by Brendan Cole (left),

"A clip of veteran Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov sparking laughter after claiming Ukraine was to blame for Vladimir Putin's invasion has gone viral.
...

"The war which we are trying to stop and which was launched against
us," Lavrov said, before laughter rang out among the audience. Lavrov [that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign Minister] paused briefly and look flustered as he tried to continue. He finished the sentence that it "influenced Russian policy" taking three attempts to say the word "influence" amid the cackles and an audience member shouting "come on." " (Newsweek :4 March 2023) (my emphasis)

Becky Anderson CNN : 4 March 2023 : YouTube

Putin's latest "doodlebug" onslaught against Ukraine's cities may also be due to the fact that, as reported by Josh Smith and Joyce Lee,

"South Korea's government approved export licenses for Poland last year to provide Ukraine with Krab howitzers, which are built with South Korean components, a defence acquisition official in Seoul told Reuters on Wednesday.

The comments are the first confirmation that South Korea officially acquiesced to at least indirectly providing weapons components to Ukraine for its war against Russia." (MSN (Reuters) : 8 March 2023 (my emphasis)

No doubt Chinese President Xi Jinping is carefully studying this development, with a keen eye on "copying Putin's Ukraine invasion" by invading Taiwan.

As reported by Gideon Rachman (left),

"Xi Jinping has called Vladimir Putin his best friend. But now the Russian leader is in urgent need of help from China. Putin’s army is bogged down in Ukraine and running short of ammunition.

Should Xi prove that he is a friend indeed by supplying Russia with weapons? China’s decision will say a lot about how it sees the future of the world.

A choice to supply Russia with weapons would suggest that China believes that intensified rivalry with the US is unavoidable — and perhaps desirable. By contrast, a decision not to give Russia weapons would indicate that China still believes that tensions with the US are manageable and that globalisation can be saved." (Financial Times : 6 March 2023) (my emphasis)

Which rather raises the question, "Has Putin now become Xi Jinping's poodle"

(to be continued)