Are Merkel and Hollande throwing a life-line to Putin?

In my blog entry last Tuesday (25 August 2015) I wrote that,

"Patrick Donahue and Helene Fouquet, reporting on yesterday's (24 Aug., 2015) Berlin meeting between Merkel, Hollande, and Poroshenko, writes that,

"Leaders of Germany, France and Ukraine said they’ll meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin only when they find a way to resolve a stalled cease-fire in eastern Ukraine ....

...

“When we have the impression that it’s necessary, we will exchange views by telephone or in person” with Putin, Merkel told reporters before the meeting.  (Bloomberg Business : August 24, 2015) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, that Roland Oliphant reported,

"Fears of a return to all out warfare continue to mount in Ukraine after Petro Poroshenko, the Ukrainian president, accused Russia of sending fresh troops and equipment into the eastern part of the country...." (The Telegraph : 24 Aug 2015)

And yesterday Vasyl Hrysak (right), Ukraine's state security chief, reported that,
 
".... heavy weaponry and troops had been pouring into occupied areas of Donbas in eastern Ukraine throughout August. 

He claimed Russia had deployed the troop build-up by using railway lines from Russia to occupied Donbas and through uncontrolled segments of the 400km stetch of the Russian-Ukrainian border; which Ukraine no longer has any control over." (UT : Aug. 29, 2015) (my emphasis) (cf. also Global Post)

 

Now recall that,

"European leaders agreed on a set 'red lines' whose violation by Russia would prompt a firm EU response," deputy administration chief Kostyantyn Yeliseyev told reporters.

"One of these lines is the fake elections that the (rebels) of Donetsk and Lugansk intend to hold on October 18 and November 1," he said in reference to the two separatist regions."(Dmytro Gorshkov : AFP :August 25, 2015) 

 It now comes to light  that,

"The leaders of France, Germany and Russia backed a new ceasefire in eastern Ukraine in a three-way phone call on Saturday, but offered contrasting views of why February's peace deal is in trouble." (Valentyn Ogirenko : Reuters :  Sat Aug 29, 2015) (my emphasis)

As before, Poroshenko was not a party to this Skype call between Merkel, Putin, and Hollande.

And what, precisely, was discussed during this tête-à-tête Skype call on Saturday between this 'Normandy three'? 

Two highly critical elements stand out, which point to the 'threat' (Tuesday 25 August, 2015) against Putin by Merkel, Hollande, and the EU about the 'crossing of red lines' simply dissolving into thin air viz.

• German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande warned Russian President Vladimir Putin on Saturday that any elections held in eastern Ukraine must conform to that country’s laws, 

AND

• “We naturally want to get the political environment back to a state where sanctions can be lifted,” Merkel said Thursday in a speech in Vienna. “We have so many international problems to tackle that it would be desirable to return to constructive cooperation” with Russia, she said. (Chad Thomas : Bloomberg Business : August 29, 2015)

No longer is there talk of 'fake' elections being held by Putin's rebel-proxies in the occupied territories of eastern Ukraine. 

'Fake elections' have been magically transformed into, "any elections held in eastern Ukraine must conform to that country’s laws". 

 

More critically, however,

 

 "... a violation by Russia [of crossing those 'red lines' about the holding of 'fake' elections by Putin's rebel-proxies in the occupied territories of eastern Ukraine] would prompt a firm EU response," as told by deputy administration chief of Ukraine, Kostyantyn Yeliseyev (right), 

 

has suddenly been magically transformed by Merkel into, "get the political environment back to a state where sanctions [against Putin's Russia] can be lifted.

 

As the late Harold Wilson is rumoured to have said, "A week is a long time in politics". Indeed. (Wikipedia) 

 

What, really, has prompted this rather subtle volte-face, this subtle near total change of position, on the part of both Merkel and Hollande since Tuesday (24 Aug., 2015)?

Is it, as Merkel has said, that “We have so many international problems to tackle that it would be desirable to return to constructive cooperation” with Russia"? (ibid Chad Thomas)

Or is she really throwing a life-line to Putin who, not only has he painted himself into a corner over Ukraine but who, possibly more significantly, senses that the 'long knives' of his 'siloviki' in the Kremlin are being slowly lifted up against him?

 

As Andrey Piontkovsky (right) says,

 

"Strange tectonic shifts are taking place around the Kremlin."

 

And although evidence of them comes mostly in leaks, they are a clear indication of, "the panic and confusion" there and the beginning in the Kremlin  of, "a showdown in the higher echelons of power" (Paul Goble : Window on Eurasia : August 25, 2015) (my emphasis)

 

To these two factors viz. international problems and the emerging cracks in Putin's hold on power, we have to add the increasingly precipitous dive of the Russian economy into a disastrous recession. (cf: Moscow Times , Bloomberg Business and The Economist)

 

A pointer to this total morass in which Putin's Russian economy finds itself is the fact that in January of this year,

 

"Six months ago, RT had been promised a 30 percent increase to its 2014 budget so it could start broadcasting in German and French. 

 

Now, the 2015 allocation, 15.4 billion rubles ($240 million), will be cut by 10 percent. RT is still getting more money than last year, but the ruble's sharp devaluation in recent months means that the dollar value of the subsidy has decreased by 46 percent. That's important for RT because it works in foreign markets and hires foreigners." ( Leonid Bershidsky: Bloomberg View : Jan 23, 2015) (my emphasis)

 

If a growing state of confusion now reigns within the Kremlin, and throughout the economy of Russia, neither the EU nor the US are immune from the critical wobbles now occurring in the global economy itself.

That recent bastion of economic growth, China, is experiencing its recent economic euphoria peter out. Putin has lost in his gamble that China would come to the rescue of Russia's ailing economy.

And if, as Andrey Piontkovsky says, "Strange tectonic shifts are taking place around the Kremlin", then China's current economic implosion is but a harbinger of the "global tectonic economic shifts" that are looming on the horizon.

(to be continued)

Are the 'long knives' out to get Putin?

The late Harold Wilson (left) is rumoured to have said that, "A week is a long time in politics". (Wikipedia)

In the case of Ukraine, the unfolding events of the last few days certainly underscores the fact that "A week is, indeed, a long time in politics"

•  Monday Aug. 24 : Ukraine celebrates "Independence Day"

• Monday Aug. 24 : Merkel, Hollande, and Poroshenko meet in Berlin to discuss Putin's forces trampling all over the Minsk2 'ceasefire'

•  Monday Aug. 24 : "German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Monday that a ceasefire agreement in eastern Ukraine was not being respected and that everything possible must be done to fully implement a peace deal reached in Minsk, Belarus, in February.
  "We are here to implement the Minsk deal, and not to call it into question," Merkel said at a news conference in Berlin with French President François Hollande and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko. (CBCNews : Thomson Reuters Posted: Aug 24, 2015) (my emphasis)
• Tuesday Aug. 25 : A top aide to President Petro Poroshenko said German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande had agreed at trilateral talks in Berlin on Monday to a set of "red lines" Russia must not cross. "One of these lines is the fake elections that the (rebels) of Donetsk and Lugansk intend to hold on October 18 and November 1," deputy administration chief Kostyantyn Yeliseyev told reporters.
  "Russia must pressure its loyalists to cancel these so-called elections. They will not be recognised and only pose a serious threat to the Minsk (peace) process if they go ahead," he told reporters. (Dmytro Gorshkov : AFP : August 25)

• Tuesday Aug. 25 : Reuters informs us that,"Ukraine and pro-Russian separatists, in a gesture to shore up a tenuous ceasefire, agreed on Wednesday to strive for an end to all truce violations from next Tuesday, the OSCE and rebel representatives said." (Andrei Makhovsky : Reuters : Aug. 25) (my emphasis)

•  Tuesday Aug. 25, spilling over into Wednesday Aug. 26: "Business Life (Delovaya Zhizn) reports on markets, finance, entrepreneurship, finance, and leisure, scarcely an outlet for sensational information. Its innocuously entitled “Increases in Pay for Military in 2015,” however, reveals what appear to be official figures on the number of Russian soldiers killed or made invalids “in eastern Ukraine.” Russian censors quickly removed the offending material but not before it had been webcached by the Ukrainian journal Novy Region ....... February 1, 2015, monetary compensation had been paid to more than 2,000 families of fallen soldiers and to 3,200 military personnel suffering heavy wounds and recognized as invalids " (Paul Gregory : Forbes : Aug. 26) (my emphasis)

  

Whilst yet another 'ceasefire' has been agreed upon, it should be borne in mind that so many of these have previously been put in place, only to be trampled all over by Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel-proxies in eastern Ukraine, we can all be forgiven for treating this 'new ceasefire' with a large dose of skepticism.

Furthermore, Dmytro Gorshkov has reported that,

"...the insurgents have refused to have their vote coincide with regional elections that will be held on October 25 in the rest of Ukraine.

They have further vowed to bar any pro-Kiev politician from running for office -- two conditions that have been rejected outright by Poroshenko but never officially condemned by Russia." (AFP : Aug. 25) (my emphasis)

Recall that point 12 of the Minsk2 proposals state that,

"12. Based on the Law of Ukraine "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts", questions related to local elections will be discussed and agreed upon with representatives of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group. Elections will be held in accordance with relevant OSCE standards and monitored by OSCE/ODIHR." (Wikipedia)

What, therefore, does all this talk about "red lines that Russia must not cross" really mean? 

And exactly what 'firm response', according to EU deputy administration chief Kostyantyn Yeliseyev, will be forthcoming from the EU if Putin simply ignores this threat of theirs?

Merkel and Hollande are still adamant that,

"We are here (Berlin Meeting last Monday, Aug. 24) to implement the Minsk deal, and not to call it into question,"

Could this sudden, and rather feeble, "Macho Response" of Merkel and Hollande towards Putin about him not 'daring to cross Red Lines' have anything to do with speculations emanating from Moscow that,

“Strange tectonic shifts are taking place around the Kremlin,” Andrey Piontkovsky (left) says.

And although evidence of them comes mostly in leaks, they are a clear indication of “the panic and confusion now ruling” there and the beginning in the Kremlin of “a showdown in the higher echelons of power.” (Paul Goble : Window on Eurasia : Aug. 25) (my emphasis) 

Indeed, Paul Goble (right) goes on to speculate further that,

"And Aleksey Venediktov, the editor of Ekho Moskvy who in Piontkovsky’s telling likes to be seen as someone with access, “suddenly has felt the need to describe very precisely that “before the annexation of Crimea, a meeting took place in the Kremlin and literally all those present – diplomats, military commanders, economists, and intelligence officials – expressed definite concerns and doubts about this action.”

            Nonetheless, Putin “didn’t listen to them and took his decision.”

            Such strange behavior, the Russian analyst continues, reflects the lack of a strategy among those closest to Putin. But it strongly suggests that they are now looking past his time and trying to position themselves for good standing in a post-Putin Moscow and a post-Putin international community." (ibid Paul Goble)

Possibly supporting these speculations about 'confusion and panic' reigning in the Kremlin, we have,

1. Nikolay Patrushev....  [s]peaking at a Vladivostok conference today, [who] denounced the use by officials of “foreign” resources like Google, Yahoo, WhatsApp, and others as a threat to national security, and
2. Today’s “Novyye izvestiya” reports that Sergey Kalashnikov, the chairman of the Duma’s committee on health, has announced that he has prepared draft legislation that would create a government organization to license those who offer their services as healers 
3. The Russian Security Council official’s remarks follow earlier reports that the Duma may adopt a law this fall that would “prohibit bureaucrats and state employees from using social networks at work.”  Observers say that this measure will be considered this fall, after the law on “cyber sovereignty” goes into effect on September 1.(Paul Goble : Window on Eurasia : Aug. 26, 2015) (my emphasis)

 

All of this may, indeed, be why Merkel, Hollande, and the EU are suddenly draping themselves in the cloak of "Macho EU" against Putin.

 

(to be continued)

Putin has blown any chances of a true 'ceasefire' out of the water.

Patrick Donahue and Helene Fouquet, reporting on yesterday's (24 Aug., 2015) Berlin meeting between Merkel, Hollande, and Poroshenko, write that,

"Leaders of Germany, France and Ukraine said they’ll meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin only when they find a way to resolve a stalled cease-fire in eastern Ukraine ....

...

“When we have the impression that it’s necessary, we will exchange views by telephone or in person” with Putin, Merkel told reporters before the meeting.

“I also don’t rule out that we’ll have a four-way meeting again.” (Bloomberg Business : August 24, 2015) (my emphasis)

 

And whilst Merkel and Hollande are still trying to breathe life into the dead fish of Putin's Minsk2 Protocols,

"...Ukraine's military said Monday that the rebels violated a cease-fire 82 times overnight in the eastern part of the country, in some cases with large-caliber weapons that should have been withdrawn in line with a truce signed in February." (Efrem Lukatsky (AP) U.S. News : Aug. 24, 2015) (my emphasis)

As Roland Oliphant also reports,

"Fears of a return to all out warfare continue to mount in Ukraine after Petro Poroshenko, the Ukrainian president, accused Russia of sending fresh troops and equipment into the eastern part of the country....

.....

“Moscow’s ‘army surplus’ has supplied fighters with 500 tanks, up to 400 artillery systems, and 950 fighting vehicles,” he said.

“Just this week three big convoys crossed our border towards Lugask, Donetsk, and Debaltseve,” he continued. (The Telegraph : 24 Aug 2015) (my emphasis)

Added to which,

"Leading separatist figure Denis Pushilin warned that open warfare “can be resumed at any moment." (Garrett Khoury : Business Insider : Aug. 24, 2015) (my emphasis)

At the same time Lukatsky reports that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, publicly exposed the fact that  'Novorossiya' is still central to Putin's thinking by invoking nothing more nor less than the very DNA code itself. 

As Sergey Lavrov (right) stated,

"It is difficult to escape the thought that their (Ukraine's) goal was to break the genetic code that guarantees the unity of our peoples," Sergey Lavrov said. "I don't think he (Poroshenko) will succeed." (ibid Efrem Lukatsky) (my emphasis)

Perhaps the 'continuous mantra' of Merkel and Hollande to try and bring to life the dead fish of the Minsk2 ceasefire has something to do with the fact that,

"..Pentagon officials worry about whether or not the United States is really prepared for a war with Russia, should one break out.

These concerns make the battlefield knowledge of Ukrainian forces all the more valuable. With the major information-gathering benefit in mind, both the United States and Britain are planning on expanding their training missions in the country.

....

....the Army will move from solely training National Guardsmen to adding in regular soldiers from the Defense Ministry.

Far from being solely to the benefit of Ukraine, Operation Fearless Guardian is proving to be of critical importance to the United States and NATO."(Garrett Khoury : Business Insider : Aug. 24, 2015) (my emphasis)

 Added to which,

"The US is to deploy F-22 fighter jets to Europe as part of efforts to support eastern European members of the Nato alliance unnerved by Russia’s intervention in Ukraine.

“Russia’s military activity in the Ukraine continues to be of great concern to us and to our European allies,” the air force secretary, Deborah James, told a news conference at the Pentagon. 

“For the air force an F-22 deployment is certainly on the strong side of the coin.” (The Guardian: Reuters (Washington) : Tuesday 25 August 2015) (my emphasis)

These responses of NATO, unforseen by Putin as he invaded and annexed Ukrainian Crimea, and who then thought that he could simply walk all over Ukraine, must be giving his 'siloviki' generals pause for thought. 

The currently battle-hardened Ukrainian army is proving more than a match for his rebel-proxies and Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine.

Given these 'facts on the ground', why is Merkel and Hollande placing all their hopes on a dead 'ceasefire' if not to force Poroshenko to give the rebel-held areas in eastern Ukraine a special status?

Recall that as long ago as June of this year,

“The Europeans are demanding that we (Ukraine) propose a strategy for the special status of Donbas. 

And they want this status not to be limited to three years (as in the law about the status of certain territories) but to be made permanent,” [Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze (left), first deputy head of the Ukrainian Parliamentary Committee on Foreign Affairs,] said.

According to Klympush-Tsintsadze,  somehow the complex approach to carrying out the Minsk-2 Agreements is being negated suddenly.

“Despite the fact that the first steps have not even been carried out — the ceasefire is not respected, the heavy weaponry has not been withdrawn, our hostages have not been returned — but the EU is telling Kyiv to carry out the fifth or seventh step,” she said. " (Serhiy Sydorenko, European Pravda, June 23, 2015)

This is also what Merkel and Hollande are telling Poroshenko to do.

Under the 'diplomatic' guise of wanting to breathe life into a dead 'ceasefire', Merkel and Hollande are practically forcing Poroshenko to 'let go of the eastern Ukraine territories that are in the hands of Putin's soldiers and his rebel-proxies.

One could almost say that this has been their common 'hidden' goal running through both Minsk1 and Minsk2.

Like the dead fish of the Minsk2 'ceasefire', current events have now brought this goal of theirs to light.

Where will they go from here?

(to be continued)

Putin's last stand?

To-day, the 24th August, Ukraine celebrates 'Independence Day'.

And yesterday, the President of India, Pranab Mukherjee (left),

"....greeted the government and the people of Ukraine on the eve of their Independence Day.

In a message to Ukraine President Petro Poroshenko, Mr Mukherjee said: "On behalf of the government, the people of India and on my own behalf, I would like to extend warm greetings and felicitations to you and to the friendly people of Ukraine on the occasion of your independence day."

"We look forward to the further strengthening of friendly ties and bilateral cooperation," he said. (NDTV : August 23, 2015) (my emphasis)

What is significant about this public message of the President of India, Pranab Mukherjee, to the Ukrainian people is that India is a critical member of the BRICS group viz. Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

As a further slap in Putin's face, Dmitry Zaks (right) informs us that,

"The heads of Germany and France will meet Kiev's pro-Western leader in Berlin on Monday for Ukrainian crisis talks most notable for their diplomatically-charged exclusion of Russia's Vladimir Putin.
.....
Russia has declined to formally address Putin's absence -- a position that underscores its refusal to admit Putin's growing isolation from Western countries .." (AFP : August 22, 2015) (my emphasis)


For Putin, this public pronouncement of President Pranab Mukherjee, together with his exclusion from to-day's Berlin meeting, must be sticking in his craw since,

".. The Crimea forbade to hold in the center of Simferopol festive meeting on August 24 occasionally Independence Day of Ukraine.

It was declared the day before by the local activist, the cofounder of the Ukrainian cultural center Leonid Kuzmin on the page on Facebook.

The corresponding ban (right), according to Kuzmin, I established so-called «city administration» Simferopol which for the formal reasons rejected the application for carrying out meeting submitted on August 18 with flower-laying to Taras Shevchenko's monument." (news-pn: 22 August 2015)

Adding to Putin's woes is the fact that,

"Oil prices are now looking to fall even further. WTI is trading below $41 per barrel and has already breached the six-year lows.
......  In fact, some market analysts and traders are even predicting oil prices will fall to $30 per barrel." (Gaurav Agnihotri : Oil Price : Thu, 20 August 2015) (my emphasis)

It is therefore not surprising that,

"Poroshenko made one of his gloomiest predictions on prospects for peace in his country days before he meets German and French leaders in Berlin for a summit he called to urge them to put pressure on Russia to comply with a 6-month-old peace plan strained by ceasefire violations and shelling.
...
"The military threat from the east is a tangible reality for decades to come. This threat will not go away in the near future and every generation of Ukrainians must have army experience," he said. " (Business Insider UK : Aug. 23, 2015) ( my emphasis)

Putin needs to further ramp up his war-mongering efforts in eastern Ukraine as a counter to the growing economic gloom that has descended upon the Russian public. 

As Paul Roderick Gregory (right) writes,

"Putin’s failures are becoming more evident on a daily basis. No one denies that Russia is a kleptocratic state whose leaders have stolen much of the national wealth.
.......
Putin’s Kremlin promotes and supports a view of the world that causes world leaders to scratch their heads in dismay."(Forbes : Aug 20, 2015) (my emphasis)

He goes on to explain further that the 'knives are out' for some of Putin's closest associates, from Dmitry Peskov to Vladimir Yakunin to Gennady Timchenko to Victor Zolotov ...  (pic: left to right)

Paul Goble (left) also informs us that,

"Both Vladimir Putin's plans for Ukraine - his initial one of absorbing much of Ukraine and his "Plan B" of having the West force Ukraine into agreeing to make consessions - have failed, Andrey Piontkovsky says; and "the interests of Putin and his closest entourage now "seriously diverge, with the latter searching for his replacement" (Window on Eurasia : Thursday August 13, 2015) (my emphasis)

Is this, as Paul Gregory suggests, that,

" ... some kind of power struggle is going on that seems to have Putin as its target. The pattern of attack is classic: bring down the big guy’s supporters first." (ibid Paul Gregory)

(to be continued)

Is Putin finally gazing into the abyss, whilst 50 ducklings are slaughtered according to his decree?

It should come as no surprise that Putin's trip to Ukrainian Crimea included not only the Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev but, more importantly, Sergey Kuzhugetovich Shoygu, Putin's Minister of Defense. (Pic: left to right: Medvedev, Putin, Shoygu and Putin)

Recall that in my last blog entry (18/8/2015) I wrote that,
"
AFP reports that, during his third visit to Ukrainian Crimea,

"Putin held a government meeting in the Crimean city of Yalta to discuss the stuttering economic development of the peninsula under Moscow's rule." (AFP : 17 Aug. 2015) (my emphasis)

The 'public' reason for Putin's recent visit to Ukrainian Crimea does not quite ring true." ....

The nagging question is, "Why did Shoygu, the Russian Minister of Defence, accompany Putin on his latest trip to Ukrainian Crimea?"

Perhaps we can glimpse an answer to this question by the recent warning given by NATO to Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel-proxies in eastern Ukraine.

As reported yesterday (19/8/2015) by AFP,

" NATO on Wednesday warned pro-Russian separatists against grabbing more land in eastern Ukraine and stressed Moscow has a "special responsibility" to help restore peace as fighting escalates.
It said the members of the 28-nation, US-led alliance expressed "their serious concern about the recent sharp escalation of violence" when they met in Brussels." (AFP : 19/08/2015) (my emphasis) 

By stating that "Moscow has a "special responsibility" to help restore peace", NATO is, in effect, publicly acknowledging that Putin's Russian army is directly involved 'on the ground' in eastern Ukraine.

This "special responsibility" of Putin is perhaps best expressed by the fact that,

"Russia's newest tanks - Т-90А - have been spotted near Luhansk in east Ukraine, adding more evidence of that the Kremlin is behind the unremitting violence in Donbas. Russian officials deny involvement." (Ukraine Today : Aug. 15, 2015)

Furthermore, as reported by Alexander Smith,

"Ukrainian forces said Wednesday that separatists attacked their positions 82 times overnight, including using artillery banned under the shaky February truce brokered by European leaders.
"The situation is still most tense in the area of the militant-controlled city of Donetsk," (NBC News : Aug 19 2015) (my emphasis)

Was Russian Minister of Defense, Shoygu, examining the readiness of his Russian troops in Ukrainian Crimea, as Putin's Russian soldiers and proxies in eastern Ukraine accelerate their onslaught against Ukrainian forces in preparation for an impending attack on Mariupol?

Furthermore, is has now been reported by Tyler Durden that,

"Having waited for over a year for the Ukraine civil war/conflict to be relegated to back page status, if that, Putin has finally given the green light, and as Xinhua reports, leaders of the self-proclaimed "Donetsk People's Republic" are planning to hold a referendum on seceding from Ukraine and joining Russia, the Donetsk-based Ostrov news agency reported Wednesday.

The referendum is scheduled to take place some in early to mid November, or specifically two to four weeks after the Oct. 18 local elections, said the news agency.
The ballot papers for the referendum designed in the colors of the Russian flag have already been printed, it said.

And while neither the rebel leadership nor the Ukrainian authorities have commented on the report yet, the modus operandi is strikingly familiar to what happened in Crimea." (Zerohedge :  19/08/2015)
 
Putin already has thousands of his "little green men" (remember Ukrainian Crimea?) operating in eastern Ukraine. And, as Tyler Duren speculates, "the modus operandi is strikingly familiar to what happened in Crimea".

NATO may be giving warnings to pro-Russian separatists against grabbing more land in eastern Ukraine, but does this include a warning to Putin and his "little green men"? 

Is NATO warning Putin?

And is Defense Minister Shoygu now preparing his Russian forces in Ukrainian Crimea to come to the "rescue" of Putin's proxies and Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine when Poroshenko's army repels their advance towards Mariupol?
 
Perhaps indicative of Putin's current mindset is the fact that,

"Russian officials euthanized and then burned 50 ducklings being smuggled into the country from Ukraine, Zvezda TV channel reported Saturday.

"The ducklings did not have any accompanying documents, so a decision was made to destroy them," Svetlana Zaporozhchenko, head of the Belgorod region's branch of Rosselkhoznadzor agricultural watchdog, told the channel." (Moscow Times: Aug. 16 2015) (my emphasis)

(to be continued)

Putin's final push towards Mariupol?

There is something quite perverse going on in the White House when,

"The Wall Street Journal reported (in July!) that the Pentagon’s proposal, which is awaiting approval from the Obama White House, would provide Ukraine with counter-battery radar that would help the country determine from where an incoming projectile was fired in order to more precisely retaliate against separatists." (Morgan Chalfant : Washington Free Beacon : July 23, 2015) (my emphasis)

whilst today (18 Aug. 2015),

"..the Obama Administration refuses to provide lethal assistance to Kiev, and even previously promised nonlethal assistance isn’t always forthcoming....
...
The [counter-battery radar] system is ready to be delivered, according to a senior American military official, who says the U.S. military is also prepared to provide training. But the Pentagon still needs political authorization in Washington almost a month after the original announcement was made to great press fanfare." (Wall Street Journal : Aug. 17, 2015)

And Obama continues to sit on his hands even as,

"Russian proxies in occupied eastern Ukraine shelled Ukrainian-government positions over the weekend and on Aug. 17. The artillery barrage killed two civilians and wounded several others in Sartana, near the Sea of Azov. Its one of the larger-scale escalations of the conflict since a winter cease-fire" (ibid KyivPost) (my emphasis)
 
What is even more significant is that Putinversteher Walter Steinmeier (left), Germany's Foreign Minister, is

".... calling the situation in eastern Ukraine "explosive", [and] urged both parties in the conflict to come together quickly for talks to prevent a spiral in violence" (The Economic Times : 16 Aug, 2015)(my emphasis)

  

 (BBC News Report : 17th August, 2015)

 
And whilst Obama is with-holding supplying Poroshenko with radar that can protect Ukrainian civilians from the current shelling onslaught by Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel-proxies in eastern Ukraine,

AFP reports that, during his third visit to Ukrainian Crimea,

"Putin held a government meeting in the Crimean city of Yalta to discuss the stuttering economic development of the peninsula under Moscow's rule." (AFP : 17 Aug. 2015) (my emphasis)

Poroshenko (left) is correct in saying that,

“Putin’s arrival in Ukrainian Crimea, without agreement from Ukrainian authorities, is a challenge to the civilized world,” Mr Poroshenko said.

He called the visit “a continuation of a plan to escalate the situation, which is being carried out by Russian troops and their mercenaries” in eastern Ukraine. (Daniel McLaughlin (right) : Irish Times : Tue, Aug 18, 2015) (my emphasis)

 
The 'public' reason for Putin's recent visit to Ukrainian Crimea does not quite ring true. Let us cast our minds back to a few days ago.

• Putin held an “operative meeting” on August 12 with the members of the Russian Security Council about escalating violence in eastern Ukraine. (RFERL : Tuesday, August 18, 2015)
• The Kremlin said the focus of the meeting was on attacks on pro-Russian separatists as well as residents of eastern Ukraine... (ibid RFERL)
• Military authorities in Ukraine believe the number of Russian troops within and close to its borders has risen to more than 50,000, raising fears of a substantial escalation in the conflict raging in Ukraine's eastern regions. (Adam Nathan: The Independent : Sunday 16 August 2015)
• Ukrainian officials reported two civilian deaths on their side, in a suburb of Mariupol on the Black Sea. The Ukrainian Security and Defense Council also reported two troops killed and six injured overnight. (AP : Indian Express : Aug 18. 2015)
• The clashes, near the port of Mariupol in the south-east and at rebel-held Horlivka, further frayed an increasingly tenuous ceasefire as Ukraine prepared to mark its independence day next week. (ABC Australia : August 18, 2015)

With these current events in mind, it seems that Putin is now more determined than ever to obtain his land-bridge between Russia and Ukrainian Crimea. 

He is masking the 'true' reason for visit to Ukrainian Crimea, which is to ready his troops in Ukrainian Crimea to support his soldiers and rebel-proxies in eastern Ukraine during their final push towards Mariupol.

Indeed, it may be, "the stuttering economic development " of [Ukrainian Crimea now] under Moscow's rule that is compelling Putin and his Kremlin 'siloviki' to throw caution to the wind and simply invade Mariupol.

And indirectly aiding and abetting Putin is President Obama, sitting on his hands in the White House whilst watching this scenario unfold before his very eyes.  

(to be continued)
  

Against the ropes, Putin accelerates Russia's move towards fascism

AFP reports that,

"US Secretary of State John Kerry called his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov on Thursday (13 Aug. 2015) to express "grave concern" about increased separatist attacks in Ukraine, a senior State Department official said." (AFP : 14/08/2015) (my emphasis)

Over the last few days mounting international concern has been growing over the assaults staged by Putin's Russian soldiers and his rebel-proxies on Ukrainian villages in eastern Ukraine.

As reported by Nash Jenkins (left),

"Separatist insurgents staged assaults on Ukrainian villages on Monday, reports Reuters. State officials say the attacks featured the heaviest shelling in the region since February." (Time : Aug. 11, 2015) (my emphasis)

Mark Piggott further informs us that,

"According to Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko,, "200 insurgents used tanks to storm" the area. The President's office said he would now be speaking to senior military figures to forge a response to "the rise in the number of attacks, particularly those using artillery fire, by the Russian-terrorist forces."

Ukraine fears the rebels are attempting to secure Mariupol, 30 miles to the south of Starohnativka and Novolaspa, providing a clear corridor to Crimea from rebel-held areas. Ukraine's defence ministry said the incident was "a dangerous indication of a further escalation to come." (International Business Times : August 10, 2015) (my emphasis)

 

This assault by Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel-proxies has been brewing for months.

What, therefore, has compelled Putin to 'throw caution to the wind' by launching this assault, knowing full well that the international community will view it as him simply trampling all over the Minsk2 protocols?

Even the 'soft-on-Putin' 'fragrant' Federica Mogherini, (Head of the EU's External Action Service) (left with Putin) has had to have her EU department come out with a rather 'soft' admonishing statement about Putin's renewed military assault in eastern Ukraine.

"The renewed escalation of the conflict raising the number of casualties, as a result of attacks on several government controlled areas today and in the night of 10 August on Starohnativka, violates the spirit and the letter of the Minsk Agreements....

The Minsk Agreements must be implemented in good faith, starting with full observation of the ceasefire and genuine withdrawal of heavy weapons." (European Union External Action : 11/08/2015) (my emphasis)

Firstly, could it just be that Putin has been forced to stoke up his war with Ukraine to deflect the gaze of the Russian people from  all that food that he has decreed last week should be 'publicly' destroyed?

This public display of tons of food simply being destroyed has caused something of an outcry in Russia.

As reported by Anna Arutunyan,

""You can't just destroy food when there are so many people who have trouble feeding themselves," said activist Olga Saveleva, whose petition on Change.org had gathered over 320,000 signatures since Thursday.

 The measures are "absurd and grotesque," said Saveleva, who plans to forward her petition to Putin and members of parliament." (USA Today : August 8, 2015) (my emphasis)

Secondly, Evgenia Pismennaya and Ilya Arkhipov tell us that a rift seems to be developing between members of Russia's  Central Bank. Dmitry Tulin, "back as the bank's chief monetary chief", is challenging Governor Elvira Nabiullina, his boss at Russia's Central Bank. (left: Nabiullina & Tulin)

"... [Tulin's] challenge to the orthodox approach of his boss at the central bank, Governor Elvira Nabiullina, underscores the tension facing Russia’s economic policy makers as they try to steady an economy battered largely by forces beyond their control." (Bloomberg Business : August 13, 2015)

Furthermore, as Craig Pirrong (left) informs us,

"Wherever Putin and his economic advisers look, the scene is bleak indeed. The situation in China is particularly ominous, because Putin had grabbed onto China like a drowning man, hoping it would rescue him from the blows raining down from sanctions and the commodity price (read: oil price) implosion.

But the Chinese devaluation, combined with a litany of other grim statistics coming out of China, suggests that if China is not drowning itself, it is struggling mightily to keep its head above water." (Seeking Alpha : Aug. 13, 2015) (my emphasis)

Ukraine's Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin (right) is correct in stating that,

""The latest examples of escalation of the situation were a deliberate and clearly planned operation both in Shyrokyne and Starohnativka. All these cases are examples of how the Russian side along with Donetsk and Luhansk tries to derail the implementation of the Minsk agreements," said Klimkin" (UNIAN : 13.08.2015) (my emphasis)

This current 'lashing out' of an angry Putin, by having his Russian soldiers and rebel-proxies gear up towards an all-out assault on Mariupol, also signifies a threatening indicator that his generals are simply not going to sit back whilst the US and other NATO forces continue to train Ukrainian soldiers.

 

As reported by Anna Nemtsova, (right)

"The Kremlin is worried about not just what the American troops are teaching the Ukrainians, but what they may be learning from them and the Donbas battlefield.

... Indeed, U.S. troops and Ukrainian troops learning from each other seems to be just the kind of thing that Russian President Vladimir Putin was worrying about when he called an emergency meeting of his security council on Wednesday.(12 Aug. 2015)" (The Daily Beast : 13.08.15) (my emphasis)

As the economic pressures against him increases, and a hairline crack between himself and the Russian people begins to emerge, Putin has no other choice but to accelerate his grip on the Russian people.

As  Anatoly Akhutin (left), a Russian scientist and philosopher, states,

"In his third term, Putin is a frank Stalinist. Honestly, the grim Stalinist spirit has actually never disappeared, so its return is the most effective way for Putin to assert his authority," says the philosopher.

He suggests that in the coming years, Russia may expect fascization.

"[This is] Without metaphors. Archaizing traditionalism, nationalism, anti-intellectualism, xenophobia, a combination of megalomania with paranoia, corporate isolation of power, the cult of the leader – these are all the obvious features of the Putin regime and the elementary definition of fascism,” (UNIAN : 13.08.2015) (my emphasis)

(to be continued)