Are Merkel and Hollande throwing a life-line to Putin?

In my blog entry last Tuesday (25 August 2015) I wrote that,

"Patrick Donahue and Helene Fouquet, reporting on yesterday's (24 Aug., 2015) Berlin meeting between Merkel, Hollande, and Poroshenko, writes that,

"Leaders of Germany, France and Ukraine said they’ll meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin only when they find a way to resolve a stalled cease-fire in eastern Ukraine ....

...

“When we have the impression that it’s necessary, we will exchange views by telephone or in person” with Putin, Merkel told reporters before the meeting.  (Bloomberg Business : August 24, 2015) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, that Roland Oliphant reported,

"Fears of a return to all out warfare continue to mount in Ukraine after Petro Poroshenko, the Ukrainian president, accused Russia of sending fresh troops and equipment into the eastern part of the country...." (The Telegraph : 24 Aug 2015)

And yesterday Vasyl Hrysak (right), Ukraine's state security chief, reported that,
 
".... heavy weaponry and troops had been pouring into occupied areas of Donbas in eastern Ukraine throughout August. 

He claimed Russia had deployed the troop build-up by using railway lines from Russia to occupied Donbas and through uncontrolled segments of the 400km stetch of the Russian-Ukrainian border; which Ukraine no longer has any control over." (UT : Aug. 29, 2015) (my emphasis) (cf. also Global Post)

 

Now recall that,

"European leaders agreed on a set 'red lines' whose violation by Russia would prompt a firm EU response," deputy administration chief Kostyantyn Yeliseyev told reporters.

"One of these lines is the fake elections that the (rebels) of Donetsk and Lugansk intend to hold on October 18 and November 1," he said in reference to the two separatist regions."(Dmytro Gorshkov : AFP :August 25, 2015) 

 It now comes to light  that,

"The leaders of France, Germany and Russia backed a new ceasefire in eastern Ukraine in a three-way phone call on Saturday, but offered contrasting views of why February's peace deal is in trouble." (Valentyn Ogirenko : Reuters :  Sat Aug 29, 2015) (my emphasis)

As before, Poroshenko was not a party to this Skype call between Merkel, Putin, and Hollande.

And what, precisely, was discussed during this tête-à-tête Skype call on Saturday between this 'Normandy three'? 

Two highly critical elements stand out, which point to the 'threat' (Tuesday 25 August, 2015) against Putin by Merkel, Hollande, and the EU about the 'crossing of red lines' simply dissolving into thin air viz.

• German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande warned Russian President Vladimir Putin on Saturday that any elections held in eastern Ukraine must conform to that country’s laws, 

AND

• “We naturally want to get the political environment back to a state where sanctions can be lifted,” Merkel said Thursday in a speech in Vienna. “We have so many international problems to tackle that it would be desirable to return to constructive cooperation” with Russia, she said. (Chad Thomas : Bloomberg Business : August 29, 2015)

No longer is there talk of 'fake' elections being held by Putin's rebel-proxies in the occupied territories of eastern Ukraine. 

'Fake elections' have been magically transformed into, "any elections held in eastern Ukraine must conform to that country’s laws". 

 

More critically, however,

 

 "... a violation by Russia [of crossing those 'red lines' about the holding of 'fake' elections by Putin's rebel-proxies in the occupied territories of eastern Ukraine] would prompt a firm EU response," as told by deputy administration chief of Ukraine, Kostyantyn Yeliseyev (right), 

 

has suddenly been magically transformed by Merkel into, "get the political environment back to a state where sanctions [against Putin's Russia] can be lifted.

 

As the late Harold Wilson is rumoured to have said, "A week is a long time in politics". Indeed. (Wikipedia) 

 

What, really, has prompted this rather subtle volte-face, this subtle near total change of position, on the part of both Merkel and Hollande since Tuesday (24 Aug., 2015)?

Is it, as Merkel has said, that “We have so many international problems to tackle that it would be desirable to return to constructive cooperation” with Russia"? (ibid Chad Thomas)

Or is she really throwing a life-line to Putin who, not only has he painted himself into a corner over Ukraine but who, possibly more significantly, senses that the 'long knives' of his 'siloviki' in the Kremlin are being slowly lifted up against him?

 

As Andrey Piontkovsky (right) says,

 

"Strange tectonic shifts are taking place around the Kremlin."

 

And although evidence of them comes mostly in leaks, they are a clear indication of, "the panic and confusion" there and the beginning in the Kremlin  of, "a showdown in the higher echelons of power" (Paul Goble : Window on Eurasia : August 25, 2015) (my emphasis)

 

To these two factors viz. international problems and the emerging cracks in Putin's hold on power, we have to add the increasingly precipitous dive of the Russian economy into a disastrous recession. (cf: Moscow Times , Bloomberg Business and The Economist)

 

A pointer to this total morass in which Putin's Russian economy finds itself is the fact that in January of this year,

 

"Six months ago, RT had been promised a 30 percent increase to its 2014 budget so it could start broadcasting in German and French. 

 

Now, the 2015 allocation, 15.4 billion rubles ($240 million), will be cut by 10 percent. RT is still getting more money than last year, but the ruble's sharp devaluation in recent months means that the dollar value of the subsidy has decreased by 46 percent. That's important for RT because it works in foreign markets and hires foreigners." ( Leonid Bershidsky: Bloomberg View : Jan 23, 2015) (my emphasis)

 

If a growing state of confusion now reigns within the Kremlin, and throughout the economy of Russia, neither the EU nor the US are immune from the critical wobbles now occurring in the global economy itself.

That recent bastion of economic growth, China, is experiencing its recent economic euphoria peter out. Putin has lost in his gamble that China would come to the rescue of Russia's ailing economy.

And if, as Andrey Piontkovsky says, "Strange tectonic shifts are taking place around the Kremlin", then China's current economic implosion is but a harbinger of the "global tectonic economic shifts" that are looming on the horizon.

(to be continued)