Are the 'long knives' out to get Putin?

The late Harold Wilson (left) is rumoured to have said that, "A week is a long time in politics". (Wikipedia)

In the case of Ukraine, the unfolding events of the last few days certainly underscores the fact that "A week is, indeed, a long time in politics"

•  Monday Aug. 24 : Ukraine celebrates "Independence Day"

• Monday Aug. 24 : Merkel, Hollande, and Poroshenko meet in Berlin to discuss Putin's forces trampling all over the Minsk2 'ceasefire'

•  Monday Aug. 24 : "German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Monday that a ceasefire agreement in eastern Ukraine was not being respected and that everything possible must be done to fully implement a peace deal reached in Minsk, Belarus, in February.
  "We are here to implement the Minsk deal, and not to call it into question," Merkel said at a news conference in Berlin with French President François Hollande and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko. (CBCNews : Thomson Reuters Posted: Aug 24, 2015) (my emphasis)
• Tuesday Aug. 25 : A top aide to President Petro Poroshenko said German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande had agreed at trilateral talks in Berlin on Monday to a set of "red lines" Russia must not cross. "One of these lines is the fake elections that the (rebels) of Donetsk and Lugansk intend to hold on October 18 and November 1," deputy administration chief Kostyantyn Yeliseyev told reporters.
  "Russia must pressure its loyalists to cancel these so-called elections. They will not be recognised and only pose a serious threat to the Minsk (peace) process if they go ahead," he told reporters. (Dmytro Gorshkov : AFP : August 25)

• Tuesday Aug. 25 : Reuters informs us that,"Ukraine and pro-Russian separatists, in a gesture to shore up a tenuous ceasefire, agreed on Wednesday to strive for an end to all truce violations from next Tuesday, the OSCE and rebel representatives said." (Andrei Makhovsky : Reuters : Aug. 25) (my emphasis)

•  Tuesday Aug. 25, spilling over into Wednesday Aug. 26: "Business Life (Delovaya Zhizn) reports on markets, finance, entrepreneurship, finance, and leisure, scarcely an outlet for sensational information. Its innocuously entitled “Increases in Pay for Military in 2015,” however, reveals what appear to be official figures on the number of Russian soldiers killed or made invalids “in eastern Ukraine.” Russian censors quickly removed the offending material but not before it had been webcached by the Ukrainian journal Novy Region ....... February 1, 2015, monetary compensation had been paid to more than 2,000 families of fallen soldiers and to 3,200 military personnel suffering heavy wounds and recognized as invalids " (Paul Gregory : Forbes : Aug. 26) (my emphasis)

  

Whilst yet another 'ceasefire' has been agreed upon, it should be borne in mind that so many of these have previously been put in place, only to be trampled all over by Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel-proxies in eastern Ukraine, we can all be forgiven for treating this 'new ceasefire' with a large dose of skepticism.

Furthermore, Dmytro Gorshkov has reported that,

"...the insurgents have refused to have their vote coincide with regional elections that will be held on October 25 in the rest of Ukraine.

They have further vowed to bar any pro-Kiev politician from running for office -- two conditions that have been rejected outright by Poroshenko but never officially condemned by Russia." (AFP : Aug. 25) (my emphasis)

Recall that point 12 of the Minsk2 proposals state that,

"12. Based on the Law of Ukraine "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts", questions related to local elections will be discussed and agreed upon with representatives of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group. Elections will be held in accordance with relevant OSCE standards and monitored by OSCE/ODIHR." (Wikipedia)

What, therefore, does all this talk about "red lines that Russia must not cross" really mean? 

And exactly what 'firm response', according to EU deputy administration chief Kostyantyn Yeliseyev, will be forthcoming from the EU if Putin simply ignores this threat of theirs?

Merkel and Hollande are still adamant that,

"We are here (Berlin Meeting last Monday, Aug. 24) to implement the Minsk deal, and not to call it into question,"

Could this sudden, and rather feeble, "Macho Response" of Merkel and Hollande towards Putin about him not 'daring to cross Red Lines' have anything to do with speculations emanating from Moscow that,

“Strange tectonic shifts are taking place around the Kremlin,” Andrey Piontkovsky (left) says.

And although evidence of them comes mostly in leaks, they are a clear indication of “the panic and confusion now ruling” there and the beginning in the Kremlin of “a showdown in the higher echelons of power.” (Paul Goble : Window on Eurasia : Aug. 25) (my emphasis) 

Indeed, Paul Goble (right) goes on to speculate further that,

"And Aleksey Venediktov, the editor of Ekho Moskvy who in Piontkovsky’s telling likes to be seen as someone with access, “suddenly has felt the need to describe very precisely that “before the annexation of Crimea, a meeting took place in the Kremlin and literally all those present – diplomats, military commanders, economists, and intelligence officials – expressed definite concerns and doubts about this action.”

            Nonetheless, Putin “didn’t listen to them and took his decision.”

            Such strange behavior, the Russian analyst continues, reflects the lack of a strategy among those closest to Putin. But it strongly suggests that they are now looking past his time and trying to position themselves for good standing in a post-Putin Moscow and a post-Putin international community." (ibid Paul Goble)

Possibly supporting these speculations about 'confusion and panic' reigning in the Kremlin, we have,

1. Nikolay Patrushev....  [s]peaking at a Vladivostok conference today, [who] denounced the use by officials of “foreign” resources like Google, Yahoo, WhatsApp, and others as a threat to national security, and
2. Today’s “Novyye izvestiya” reports that Sergey Kalashnikov, the chairman of the Duma’s committee on health, has announced that he has prepared draft legislation that would create a government organization to license those who offer their services as healers 
3. The Russian Security Council official’s remarks follow earlier reports that the Duma may adopt a law this fall that would “prohibit bureaucrats and state employees from using social networks at work.”  Observers say that this measure will be considered this fall, after the law on “cyber sovereignty” goes into effect on September 1.(Paul Goble : Window on Eurasia : Aug. 26, 2015) (my emphasis)

 

All of this may, indeed, be why Merkel, Hollande, and the EU are suddenly draping themselves in the cloak of "Macho EU" against Putin.

 

(to be continued)