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Saturday 10 October 2015

Has Putin over-played his hand in Syria?

Rather presciently, and alluding to Putin's 'little green men' that invaded and annexed Ukrainian Crimea almost two years ago, Poroshenko said at the 12 annual (10th September, 2015) YES (Yalta European Strategy) conference that,

"These days, 'green men' are landing in the hundreds in Syria" (cf. video below)


And five days ago, Putin's cruise missiles were fired on Syrians (NOT Isil!) that are fighting to overthrow Bashar Al Assad, a bosom 'buddy' of Putin's, who thus far has killed more than 150,000 of his own people. (cf. video below)


As Edward Lucas (left) states,

"The weapons that Russia is sending [to Syria] are not an attempt to settle the conflict. They are there to protect the Assad regime, which is its cause. Moreover, ISIL does not have warplanes: Russia’s air defense missiles are in Syria for a different purpose." (Politico : October 1st, 2015) (my emphasis)


This 'overkill' on the part of Putin, to try and re-assert himself as a 'global player', and to deflect the gaze of the world away from his war with Ukraine is, as Marcel Michelson (right) states,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin is strengthening his negotiating power with the European Union, and the United States, in the standoff around Ukraine by backing Bashar al-Assad in Syria and bombing rebel militants there, even if they do not belong to Islamic State." (Forbes Business : 5 October, 2015) (my emphasis)

Ironically, aiding and abbeting Putin's 'negotiating power with the European Union, and the United States, in the standoff around Ukraine', is the flood of economic migrants/refugees from Syria, Afghanistan, and many countries from the North of Africa, into the EU.

The turmoil that this has caused beween some EU states and, more importantly, the invigoration of Right-wing and Extreme Right-wing parties in EU countries that this mass migration has precipitated, is playing right into Putin's hands. Right-wing political organizations from Greece and Hungary to Austria and France are once again in the ascendent.

 And since Putin already bankrolls Marine Le Pen's 'Front National' in France, what is to prevent him from pouring billions of Roubles into the coffers of other Right-wing and extreme Right wing organizations in other EU countries?

As reported by the BBC,

Bavarian state premier Horst Seehofer at news conference in Munich. 9 Oct 15"Bavarian state premier Horst Seehofer (left) said "we need to restrict immigration in order to maintain the public's solidarity with those in need of protection".

He also said a cap on the numbers was necessary "to guarantee our domestic security". (BBC : 9 October 2015) (my emphasis)

Already,
Remchingen asylum hostel gutted by fire, 25 July 15
"The German government says there have been almost 500 attacks on homes intended for asylum seekers this year - three times more than in 2014.

German Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere called such violence "shameful". Two-thirds of the attacks were carried out by locals who had no previous criminal record, he said." (ibid BBC) (my emphasis)

Against this backdrop of Syria, the resurgence of Right-Wing sentiment in many EU member states, and the flood of economic migrants/refugees across the EU, the situtation in Ukraine has painfully inched foreward.

Andrew Rettman (left) reports that,

"The EU and US have welcomed the halt of rogue elections in Russia-occupied Ukraine, but concessions could harm pro-Western leaders in Kiev.
The EU foreign service said on Tuesday (6 October) the election decision "offers renewed hope for a sustainable political settlement". (EuObserver : 7. Oct., 2015) (my emphasis)

As Rettman further reports,

"... French, German, Russian, and Ukrainian leaders held talks in Paris last Friday.
The new "truce" resulted in modification of the "Minsk 2" ceasefire accord.

Under Minsk, rebels were to hold elections under Ukrainian law, foreign forces were to leave Ukraine, and Russia was to give it back control of its borders by the end of the year.

Under Paris, Ukraine is to pass a special law on the Donetsk and Luhansk votes and implementation is to lag into 2016." (ibid Rettman)

Already,

"...Sergio Mattarella , the Italian president, told the Tass news agency on Tuesday "it's important to restore a climate of partnership and full trust [with Russia]". (right: Matarella and Bettel)
 
Xavier Bettel , the Luxembourg PM, also discussed EU sanctions relief when he met Russian president Vladimir Putin in Sochi on Tuesday." (ibid Rettman) (my emphasis)

And whilst Matarella and Bettel want the EU sanctions against Putin's Russia to be removed,

".... Raimonds Vejonis, the Latvian president (left), told the Wall Street Journal ahead of the Paris meeting: “It’s very difficult to trust such a partner [Putin]”.( Andrew Rettman : EuObserver : 3. Oct., 2015)

Vejonis could equally have said,

"His [Putin's] mouth is full of cursing and deceit and fraud: under his tongue is mischief and vanity"

In my last blog entry I pointed out that,

"The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, which is monitoring a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine, reported that its monitors had seen a mobile TOS-1 'Buratino' weapons system for the first time.

The Buratino is equipped with thermobaric warheads which spread a flammable liquid around a target and then ignite it. It can destroy several city blocks in one strike and cause indiscriminate damage.

Only Russia produces the system and it was not exported to Ukraine before the conflict broke out .." (Reuters : Fri Oct 2, 2015)

This development underlines what Obama said to Steve Kroft during a recent CBS News interview.

President Barack Obama: Well-- Steve, I got to tell you, if you think that running your economy into the ground and having to send troops in, in order to prop up your only ally is leadership, then we've got a different definition of leadership. (CBS News : 9 October,2015) (cf: video below)


(to be continued)

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