Putin's UN speech has come and gone, and now his Syrian gambit is being played out as he begins to shore up the belleagured Bashar Al Assad by indiscriminately bombing all that he perceives as 'terrorists'.
As that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov (left), recently said,
"Russia's airstrikes in Syria "do not go beyond ISIL (ISIS), al Nusra or other terrorist groups recognized by the United Nations Security Council or Russian law," Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Thursday.
As in the case of Yanukovich, Putin is using the same type of argument in his coming to the defence of Bashar Al Assad viz. that Assad is the legitimate ruler of Syria who is 'wrongly' wanting to be overthrown by 'terrorists'. (right: Assad and Yanukovich)
Besides coming to the defence of Bashar Al Assad, and the protecting of the Syrian naval base in Tartus (left), which gives the Russian navy direct accesss into the Mediterannean sea,
"The Organization for Security and Co-operation
in Europe, which is monitoring a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine, reported
that its monitors had seen a mobile TOS-1 'Buratino' weapons system for
the first time.
The Buratino is equipped with thermobaric warheads which spread a flammable liquid around a target and then ignite it. It can destroy several city blocks in one strike and cause indiscriminate damage.
Only Russia produces the system and it was not exported to Ukraine before the conflict broke out .." (Reuters :
Poroshenko said his government would pass a bill granting a specific status to those regions. (controlled by Putin's proxies)
3) .. Putin promised to have an envoy discuss (only discuss!) the election issues with rebel leaders to get them to agree on the delay. (cf (1))
4) .. the start of the weapons withdrawal (What about the mobile TOS-1 'Buratino' weapons system seen be members of the OSCE for the first time?)
5) .. [that Ukraine will retake] further control of the border [with Russia] step-by-step, and all foreign troops will be withdrawn from Ukraine
But most critical of all, as reported by Michel Rose, Jean-Baptiste Vey and Noah Barkin,
"It will take time to organise elections in Ukraine that respect international standards and as a result, the so-called Minsk peace process will run into next year, French President Francois Hollande said on Friday." (Reuters : (my emphasis)
This delay in the full implementation of the Minsk2 protocols signifies, more than anything else, that Putin wishes the world to focus on Syria, at the expense of focussing on his war with Ukraine.
But Obama seems not to be falling into his Syrian diplomatic trap.
"This is not some super-power chess board contest, and anyone who frames it in that way isn't paying close attention ..." (cf: Reuters video below)
Perhaps the most significant indicator that Putin's aim is to deflect the gaze of the world away from Ukraine and towards Syria is evidenced by his Ruaaisn propaganda machine now switching its attention from Ukraine to the events in Syria.
As reported by
"Since fighting broke out in eastern
Ukraine 18 months ago, Moscow has used its state media and top-level
denial to mask its military involvement in the conflict and rebuke growing evidence suggesting Russian troops supported — and sometimes directly fought alongside — separatist forces.
Now, less than a week into its game-changing foray into Syria, the Kremlin may be deploying similar tactics to deflect accusations that Russia is more interested in protecting its ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, than going after the Islamic State. (Foreign Policy : October 2, 2015) (my emphasis)
Already there is growing discontent amongst his proxies in eastern Ukraine.
As Kim Sengupta reports from rebel-held Donetsk,
"The soldier, an ethnic Chechen, is one of dozens of casualties who complain that the sacrifices they have made to establish the People’s Republic are being ignored; and [Putin's rebel proxies] that [are] supposed to administer compensation are proving elusive, or are fobbing off the wounded with excuses.
......
Not only do soldiers like him feel let down by the failings of the rebel authorities over compensation, they also feel shunned in other ways. “They really should not ignore us – this war is not over. It will continue, if not this year, then next year,” he said. (The Independent : Friday 2 October 2015) (my emphasis)
There does seem to be an inevitability about Putin's Syrian gambit.
Was it because he no longer could stand his growing 'pariah status' amongst the international community because of his annexation of Ukrainian Crimea and his subsequent invasion of eastern Ukraine?
Was it to regain his status amongst the Arab nations, even though he may be burning his bridges with those Arab nations who are part of the current international coalition now fighting against ISIS?
Was it to satisfy his naval Admirals to protect the growing Russian naval base at Tartus and their access to the Mediterannean sea?
Or is it, as Paul-Quinn Judge suggests,
"Putin’s task on the ground in Ukraine is becoming more complicated.
If Russia really wants to pull out, it has to wind up a small but stubborn political local leadership and a quite large militia structure of at least 20,000 fighters that it has generously equipped with artillery and heavy armour.
It will discover, if it has not done so already, that separatist leaders have developed their own, usually corrupt, interests, and may not go quietly, and that fighters, abandoned to their own resources, may turn to crime." (New Eastern Europe : Wednesday, 30 September 2015) (my emphasis)
(to be continued)
As that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov (left), recently said,"Russia's airstrikes in Syria "do not go beyond ISIL (ISIS), al Nusra or other terrorist groups recognized by the United Nations Security Council or Russian law," Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Thursday.
Pushed
to define "other terrorist groups," Lavrov said: "If it looks like a
terrorist, if it acts like a terrorist, if it walks like a terrorist, if
it fights like a terrorist, it's a terrorist, right?" (CNN : October 1, 2015) (my emphasis)
Lavrov's definition of a 'terrorist' rather neatly fits Putin's rebel proxies in eastern Ukraine.
Poroshenko has always, correctly, identified Putin's proxies in eastern Ukraine as 'terrorists'.
Yet, for Putin they were seen as 'defenders of the Russian language and identity'; as his 'shock-troops' in the re-creation of Novorossiya.
As in the case of Yanukovich, Putin is using the same type of argument in his coming to the defence of Bashar Al Assad viz. that Assad is the legitimate ruler of Syria who is 'wrongly' wanting to be overthrown by 'terrorists'. (right: Assad and Yanukovich)
Putin rather conveniently forgets that Yanukovich 'fled' Ukraine, and now sits safely ensconced in Russia with all the billions of dollars that he stole from the Ukrainian people.
As Roman Popadiuk, former US ambassador to Ukraine, states,
"... he [Putin] has a vested interest in his policy in Ukraine, and he'll make the case for it, whether it is in an international forum or in press interviews, that the Russians had a right to be involved in that situation ..." (cf. video below)
Similarly, Putin has a vested interest in Syria that has absolutely nothing to do with fighting ISIS, the group that the coalition forces are now fighting against in Syria and Iraq.
Besides coming to the defence of Bashar Al Assad, and the protecting of the Syrian naval base in Tartus (left), which gives the Russian navy direct accesss into the Mediterannean sea,
" ....he can use the meeting [between himself and Obama] to show his domestic audience that he is a key player ... that he is not isolated ... and thereby show the strength that he has to the Russian people that, even though they're undergoing hardships, he is making Russia great again .... " (Roman Popadiuk : see video below)
And whilst Putin is trying to rescucitate himself as a world leader on the international stage,
Anton Zverev reports that,
"The Organization for Security and Co-operation
in Europe, which is monitoring a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine, reported
that its monitors had seen a mobile TOS-1 'Buratino' weapons system for
the first time.The Buratino is equipped with thermobaric warheads which spread a flammable liquid around a target and then ignite it. It can destroy several city blocks in one strike and cause indiscriminate damage.
Only Russia produces the system and it was not exported to Ukraine before the conflict broke out .." (Reuters :
Poroshenko said his government would pass a bill granting a specific status to those regions. (controlled by Putin's proxies)
3) .. Putin promised to have an envoy discuss (only discuss!) the election issues with rebel leaders to get them to agree on the delay. (cf (1))
4) .. the start of the weapons withdrawal (What about the mobile TOS-1 'Buratino' weapons system seen be members of the OSCE for the first time?)
5) .. [that Ukraine will retake] further control of the border [with Russia] step-by-step, and all foreign troops will be withdrawn from Ukraine
But most critical of all, as reported by Michel Rose, Jean-Baptiste Vey and Noah Barkin,"It will take time to organise elections in Ukraine that respect international standards and as a result, the so-called Minsk peace process will run into next year, French President Francois Hollande said on Friday." (Reuters : (my emphasis)
This delay in the full implementation of the Minsk2 protocols signifies, more than anything else, that Putin wishes the world to focus on Syria, at the expense of focussing on his war with Ukraine.
But Obama seems not to be falling into his Syrian diplomatic trap.
"This is not some super-power chess board contest, and anyone who frames it in that way isn't paying close attention ..." (cf: Reuters video below)
Perhaps the most significant indicator that Putin's aim is to deflect the gaze of the world away from Ukraine and towards Syria is evidenced by his Ruaaisn propaganda machine now switching its attention from Ukraine to the events in Syria.
As reported by
"Since fighting broke out in eastern
Ukraine 18 months ago, Moscow has used its state media and top-level
denial to mask its military involvement in the conflict and rebuke growing evidence suggesting Russian troops supported — and sometimes directly fought alongside — separatist forces.
Now, less than a week into its game-changing foray into Syria, the Kremlin may be deploying similar tactics to deflect accusations that Russia is more interested in protecting its ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, than going after the Islamic State. (Foreign Policy : October 2, 2015) (my emphasis)
Already there is growing discontent amongst his proxies in eastern Ukraine.
As Kim Sengupta reports from rebel-held Donetsk,"The soldier, an ethnic Chechen, is one of dozens of casualties who complain that the sacrifices they have made to establish the People’s Republic are being ignored; and [Putin's rebel proxies] that [are] supposed to administer compensation are proving elusive, or are fobbing off the wounded with excuses.
......
Not only do soldiers like him feel let down by the failings of the rebel authorities over compensation, they also feel shunned in other ways. “They really should not ignore us – this war is not over. It will continue, if not this year, then next year,” he said. (The Independent : Friday 2 October 2015) (my emphasis)
There does seem to be an inevitability about Putin's Syrian gambit.
Was it because he no longer could stand his growing 'pariah status' amongst the international community because of his annexation of Ukrainian Crimea and his subsequent invasion of eastern Ukraine?
Was it to regain his status amongst the Arab nations, even though he may be burning his bridges with those Arab nations who are part of the current international coalition now fighting against ISIS?
Was it to satisfy his naval Admirals to protect the growing Russian naval base at Tartus and their access to the Mediterannean sea?
Or is it, as Paul-Quinn Judge suggests,
"Putin’s task on the ground in Ukraine is becoming more complicated.If Russia really wants to pull out, it has to wind up a small but stubborn political local leadership and a quite large militia structure of at least 20,000 fighters that it has generously equipped with artillery and heavy armour.
It will discover, if it has not done so already, that separatist leaders have developed their own, usually corrupt, interests, and may not go quietly, and that fighters, abandoned to their own resources, may turn to crime." (New Eastern Europe : Wednesday, 30 September 2015) (my emphasis)
(to be continued)
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