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Tuesday 1 March 2016

Putin being given breathing space

Luis Ramirez rather neatly sums up the current frustrations boiling over in Ukraine. He reports that,

"The Ukrainian government this month narrowly survived a no-confidence vote in parliament, and frustrations are showing early signs of boiling over again as patience wears thin among those who want corruption and economic disparity gone quickly, and for good." (VOA : February 26, 2016) my emphasis)


Those internal Ukrainain frustrations have their growing international counterparts as well.

For the first time even the Chinese are publicly calling for international support for a political settlement of the war between Putin's Russia and Ukraine. As reported by the  Xinhua News Agency,

UN-NEW YORK-SECURITY COUNCIL-CHINA-PRESIDENT-BRIEFING"A Chinese envoy to the United Nations Monday highlighted the importance of political settlement in solving the Ukraine issue and called for support from the international community.

A comprehensive solution of the Ukraine issue must follow the general direction of political settlement, said Liu Jieyi (left), China's permanent representative to the UN at a Security Council meeting briefed by the Chairperson-in-Office of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). (BruDirect : Tuesday, 01 March 2016) (my emphasis)

Liu, however, is hedging China's call by not wishing to ruffle Putin's feathers, nor wanting to jeopardise China's huge investments in Ukrainian agricultural land.
Liu thus added that
".... it is imperative to fully take into account the legitimate rights and demands of all regions and ethnic groups within Ukraine while paying good attention to the legitimate concerns of all relevant parties." (ibid Xinhua News Agency) (my emphasis)
 
Meanwhile, that Putinversteher, Walter Steinmeier, continues to pressure Ukraine to hold those Minsk2 'elections' in Putin-controlled eastern Ukraine, whilst yet again simply glossing over the fact that such elections would be totally meaningless unless :-
  • Ukraine, together with the OSCE and possibly the UN, are in full control of the border between Russia and Ukraine to prevent a flood of Russians entering eastern Ukraine and then claiming that they are residents of Ukraine
  • such elections to be held according to Ukrainian law 
  • a strict system of identification of valid Ukrainian electors should be put into place so that Putin's thousands of 'little green men' currently in eastern Ukraine cannot palm themselves off as valid Ukrainian citizens  
  • Putin's rebel-proxies and Russian soldiers (who would no doubt by then have divested themselves of their 'little green men Russian uniforms) should not hinder any Ukrainian canvassers or candidates from freely having access to ALL of the territories of eastern Ukraine that Putin's proxies and Russian soldiers now control
  • these elections should be held under the watchful eyes of an army of international observers, including EU observers
Bearing these five elementary points in mind, is it any wonder that,

"Speaking at a news conference in Washington with U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, Frank-Walter Steinmeier conceded that the readiness of the government in Kiev and pro-Russian separatists to move forward with Minsk was "very limited". (Noah Barkin : Reuters (Yahoo News) : 1st March, 2016) (my emphasis)

Furthermore that, 

"Kiev's struggles to get an election law for eastern Ukraine through parliament and an increase in ceasefire violations in the region have raised fears that the deal, sealed one year ago in the Belarus capital, could collapse, sparking a new wave of fighting."? (ibid Noah Barkin) (my emphasis)



Andreas Umland (right) perceptively reports that,

"Obviously, neither Russian aggression nor economic difficulties should excuse the Ukraine government’s slow pace of reforms. 

Ukraine’s friends should continue to press Kiev hard for cleaner government and deeper economic reform. 

But the West should recognize that the country’s exhausted civil society and its beleaguered administration are operating in an environment of exceptional stress and myriad distractions. 

Western leaders and policymakers must thus maintain the pressure on Moscow to abandon its reckless hybrid war. Had Russia respected the sovereignty, integrity, and European choice of its “brother nation,” we would, already today, have a very different Ukraine." (Foreign Policy : February 26, 2016) (my emphasis)

It would seem, however, that from Christine Largarde (Head of the IMF) witholding IMF money for Ukraine, to vice-president Biden, to Walter Steinmeier, to President Hollande; the pressure is being placed on Poroshenko to implement Minsk2 to the mutual exclusion of pressure being placed on Putin to do likewise. 

In fact, the pressure on Putin is so lukewarm that he can simply sit back and let the west do his job of dismembering Ukraine and ensuring that Ukraine's political structure fails.

And yet the EU is, during this Ukraine Week, vowing its support for Ukraine.

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/resources/library/images/20160229PHT16423/20160229PHT16423_original.jpg?epbox[reference]=20160229IPR16404"This 3-day high-level conference is bringing together MEPs, national and Ukrainian MPs to share experience on good parliamentary practice, law-making and representation.
 

The event "demonstrates strong solidarity between the European Parliament and the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine", said Mr Schulz. "You need our support and you will receive it." (EU Parliament : 01-03-2016) (my emphasis)

And then we have the EU caveat that,

"However recommendations to reform the VRU should not be put into the filing cabinet, but implemented", he added." (ibid EU Parliament)

But I shall let Vitali Klitschko have the last word.


(to be continued)

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