Putin, Ukraine, Syria, and ....... Jamala

Olga Tanas (below) informs us that,

"With employers already hunkering down after oil’s collapse and the crash in the ruble to record lows last month, the prolonged downturn is giving way to adjustments in the labor market that are further squeezing household finances. As expectations fade for a quick turnaround after the biggest drop in consumption under President Vladimir Putin, the challenge for authorities is how to contain discontent without further straining the budget before parliamentary elections later this year." (Bloomberg Business : February 17, 2016) (my emphasis)

Similarly, on the international front, Neil MacFarquhar reports that,

"The partial truce that Russia and the United States have thrashed out in Syria capped something of a foreign policy trifecta for President Vladimir V. Putin, with the Kremlin strong-arming itself into a pivotal role in the Middle East, Ukraine floundering and the European Union developing cracks like a badly glazed pot.

Beyond what could well be a high point for Mr. Putin, however, lingering questions about Russia’s endgame arise in all three directions." (New York Times : Feb. 23, 2016) (my emphasis)

These lingering doubts include:- 

• Mr. Assad, who has grown bolder because of Russian and Iranian support, recently said he planned to reassert control over all of Syria.....That would put Russia in the unpredictable position of supporting Damascus through the long, most likely bloody slog needed to dislodge the Islamic militants. (ibid  Neil MacFarquhar) (my emphasis)
• Another wild card for Moscow is its increasingly hostile relationship with Turkey, after a Russian warplane was shot down in November after briefly violating Turkish airspace. (ibid  Neil MacFarquhar)
• The Russian economy is in dire straits, as described by Olga Tanas, and no matter how much Putin may try to gloss over this fact, Aleksandr Shumilin, a senior Middle East expert at the Russian Academy of Sciences, warns that whilst Putin may be feeling a 'flush of success' over  his strategy in Syria, this feeling of 'success' “will depend on the situation, which is very complicated at the moment” and which could add a further and unacceptable drain on the already faltering Russian economy.

These lingering doubts over Putin's endgame in Syria are further complicated by the fact that,

"US President Barack Obama [  ] told Russia's Vladimir Putin on Monday about the importance of "permitting... the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) full access to the conflict area, including the international border." (Beatrice Le Bohec : AFP (Yahoo News) : 23 Feb. 2016) (my emphasis)

Added to which, even that Putinversteher, Walter Steinmeier (right), has had to admit that,

"... it was unacceptable "that there are so many violations of the ceasefire [currently in eastern Ukraine]" (ibid Beatrice Le Bohec)

Yet Steinmeier seems to be almost totally deaf to the call by both Poroshenko and Barack Obama that,

"... [Ukraine] cannot conduct polls in separatist regions under international laws unless its porous border with Russia is secured first." (ibid Beatrice Le Bohec)

Furthermore, this proposal of both Poroshenko and US President Obama is,

"...... stiffly opposed by [Putin's] insurgency leaders." (ibid Beatrice Le Bohec)

Neither Steinmeier, nor his French counterpart French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault (left), can both 'have their cake and eat it'!

Pressurising Poroshenko to fully adopt the Minsk2 proposals about the implementation of the 'special status' of Putin's rebel-held territory in eastern Ukraine, as well as for the holding of elections in this war zone without first securing the border between Russia and Ukraine, is the strongest indication that the hidden agenda of Steinmeier and  Jean-Marc Ayrault is nothing more nor less than to get the sanctions against Russia lifted.

They are simply supporting the goals of Putin to have both the sanctions against Russia lifted, as well as implementing Putin's 'federal breakup' of Ukraine.

In similar vein,

"In Syria, Russia achieved its main goal of shoring up the government of President Bashar al-Assad, long the Kremlin’s foremost Arab ally. Yet its ultimate objectives remain murky, not least navigating a graceful exit from the messy conflict." (ibid Neil MacFarquhar) (my emphasis)

As Josh Wood so aptly describes it,

"While the breakthrough [in Syria] would represent the first countrywide pause in fighting between the rebels and the [Syrian] regime in nearly five years of war, the same problems that have derailed all recent truce plans so far still remain.

There is no guarantee that the government and its allies will refrain from attacking rebel forces and it seems unlikely that the opposition’s preconditions for a deal will be met." (The National World : February 24, 2016) (my emphasis)

Neither is there any guarantee that Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel-forces will refrain from attacking Ukrainian forces if the border between Ukraine and Russia is not sealed BEFORE the implementation of the Minsk2 proposals that elections be held in eastern Ukraine, and that eastern Ukraine be given 'special status'.

Perhaps the most obvious indication of Putin's mindset about Ukraine is best illustrated by the fact that,

"Russia's State Duma have asked the organisers of the Eurovision song contest to bar Ukrainian singer Jamala from performing her song about Joseph Stalin's mass deportation of Crimean Tatars in 1944." (KyivPost : Feb. 22, 2016) (my emphasis)

(to be continued)