Has Putin bitten off more than he can chew?

There is a 'perfect storm' gathering over Ukraine.

The 'boyars' of Yanukovich, left in the lurch after he fled into the arms of Putin, are beginning to feel the increasing heat of the clamour against the corruption and 'theft', coming from the Ukrainian people, the US, and the EU., under which they amassed their ill-gotten fortunes.

As  Mikheil Saakashvili has also suggested,

" ... Ukraine could elbow the ultrarich from politics by cleaning up state-owned enterprises.

 

“You can just cleanse them of their oligarch manager and basically destroy or abolish this joint stock company of oligarchs that is what they see, what they regard, as Ukraine,” he said. (Andrew E. Kramer : New York Times : Feb. 3, 2016) (my emphasis)

This 'cleansing of Ukrainian state-owned enterprises of  oligarch managers' has been further underlined by,

"Ukraine's economy minister Aivarus Abromavicius (left)  [who] has resigned in protest at the slow pace of reform in the country.

He said he did not want to provide "cover" for widespread government corruption." (BBC News : 3 February 2016) (my emphasis)

This head of steam, bubbling up against the corruption in Ukraine, threatens to critically split the Poroshenko government.

 

And standing on the sidelines we have Putin, rubbing his hands in obvious glee.

So much so, that he has given the 'green light' to his rebel proxies in eastern Ukraine, to trample once again all over the Minsk2 agreements.

It is therefore no wonder that, as reported by UNIAN,

 

"Ukrainian officials are reporting up to 71 attacks a day, with most of the fighting concentrated around the separatist-held cities of Donetsk and Gorlovka [Horlivka in Ukrainian], as well as the countryside east of the Azov port city of Mariupol." (The Daily Beast :UNIAN : 03.02.2016) (my emphasis)

Similarly, it is no co-incidence that, as Paul Carrel reports,

"Russia was building up its military presence on the border with Ukraine, [Poroshenko] said.

"The danger of an open war is greater than last year," Poroshenko told Bild, in an interview published in its Wednesday edition. "Russia is investing a great deal in war preparations."
 

 Merkel pressed Putin by phone on Tuesday to use his influence to ensure that a ceasefire is upheld in Ukraine and that monitors from the OSCE European security organization are granted free access to conflict areas, her spokesman said." (Reuters : Wed Feb 3, 2016) (my emphasis)

Paul Carrel further reports that, 

"Berlin is growing increasingly suspicious that Russia is trying to stir up trouble in Germany to try to weaken Merkel, who has taken a tough line on a crisis that was triggered when Russia annexed Crimea in March 2014.

German officials say Moscow hopes to destabilize Europe and create a vacuum into which it can project its own power." (ibid Carrel) (my emphasis) 

This 'divide-and-rule' tactic of Putin is best exemplified by the fact that,

"Bavarian Premier Horst Seehofer (below left) on Wednesday called for an easing of Ukraine-related sanctions against Russia "in due course," ahead of a controversial meeting with President Vladimir Putin at his residence outside Moscow.
 

"We want to make an honest contribution to the rebuilding of trust and normality in a difficult political environment," the head of German Chancellor Angela Merkel's Bavarian sister party said later during his talks with Putin." (DPA : About Croatia : Wed, 03/02/2016) (my emphasis)

 It is also exemplified by the fact that,

"With the Syrian government intensifying its assault on rebels in Aleppo, the United Nations formally suspended faltering peace talks in Geneva Wednesday and appealed to the big powers to prod their Syrian proxies to end the fighting.

The move came hours after Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov delivered a blunt message to the peacemakers seeking to silence the guns in Syria. Lavrov made it clear that Moscow — which has provided extensive military assistance to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad — has no intention of pausing a barrage of airstrikes in the rebel-controlled areas around the cities of Aleppo and Homs." (John Hudson & Colum Lynch : FP : February 3, 2016) (my emphasis)

Putin's current moves in Ukraine, Germany, and in Syria, are beginning to display a sense of desperation on his part.

To maintain his growing and precarious hold on power in Russia he is finally toying with the 'war' card to deflect the eyes of the Russian people away from their growing impoverishment by arousing within them a dangerous nationalism.

As Poroshenko told Bildt,

""The danger of an open war is greater than last year," (ibid Paul Carrel)

And this war may not only involve Ukraine.

(to be continued)