Putin is beginning to lash out in desperation

At this year's (2016) Munich Security Conference,

"... Russia's official delegation will be led by Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev — the message seems to be that Russia is ready to talk about sanctions relief." (Matthew Bodner : Moscow Times : Feb. 11 2016)

Furthermore, that,

"Official Russian foreign policy positions in Ukraine and Syria have not changed since Lavrov was laughed off stage last year. But Moscow has been forced to show flexibility in finding a solution to its standoff with the West.
The reason for the softening of Russia's position is simple: the nation is experiencing its worst economic crisis since 1998, and Western sanctions are part of the problem. Consumers and companies are in desperate need of relief from the recession." (ibid Matthew Bodner) (my emphasis)

This more 'flexible' stance of Putin should, however, be taken with 'a very large pinch of salt'.

Recall that as recently as Feb. 01 2016, Merkel categorically stated that,

"We still don't have a sustainable cease-fire, which is naturally a prerequisite for the implementation of different points in the Minsk agreement," Merkel is reported as saying. " (Moscow Times :  Feb. 01 2016)

Furthermore, that,

"....Merkel has ruled out lifting EU sanctions against Russia before full cease-fire is implemented in eastern Ukraine, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday." (ibid Moscow Times) (my emphasis)

What, therefore, has prompted Putin to send his glove-puppet, Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev, as leader of the Russian delegation to the Munich Security Conference, to talk about 'sanctions relief'?

 Could it be, as Sergey Aleksashenko (left), a former deputy chairman of the Russian central bank, contends that,

"Russia’s economic crisis is worse than Moscow admits and that the Kremlin’s optimism about future prospects "has not been based on reality."
....
Russia is experiencing a series of negative trends that, by his estimate, dragged down Russia’s GDP by 9 percent in 2015.
  ...
Russia’s state statistics agency said GDP fell by only 3.7 percent last year. Aleksashenko called that a "statistical miracle" that "does not reflect the real problems." (Dragan Stavljanin and Ron Synovitz : RFE/RL : February 13, 2016)

And whilst Putin's glove-puppet, Medvedev, wants to talk about 'sanctions relief' in Munich,

" Three Ukrainian servicemen have been killed and seven wounded in fighting with pro-Russian separatists in the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian military said on Tuesday, reporting the highest daily casualty toll since mid-November." (Natalia Zinets and Alessandra Prentice : Reuters : 16 Feb. 2016)

Even more disconcerting, Thomas Gibbons-Neff (right) reports that,

"In addition to the fighting, there has been “circumstantial evidence” that Russia is rearming the separatists, according to Lamberto Zannier, the secretary general of the OSCE." (Washington Post : February 1, 2016) (my emphasis)

This re-arming of Putin's Russian soldiers and proxies in eastern Ukraine comes amidst a deepening political crisis in Kiev that,

"...threaten[s] the Minsk ceasefire agreements, whose full implementation (which was initially planned for December 2015) had already been pushed back to an uncertain date this year." (The Guardian : Tuesday 16 February 2016) (my emphasis)

Whether this crisis will be resolved within the next few days remains uncertain. The tenacity with which Ukrainian oligarchs are clinging to power and corruption cannot be underestimated. They have much to loose and nothing to gain if the fight against corruption in Ukraine is accelerated.

Putin may be rubbing his hands with glee at this political crisis in Ukraine. But not for long!

Ronald Reagan's Strategic Defence Initiative and his military expenditure could simply not be matched by the then Soviet Union.

In the words of the Vatican's Secretary of State, Agostino Cardinal Casaroli,

"Ronald Reagan obligated the Soviet Union to increase its military spending to the limits of insupportability." (Richard Ned Lebow and Janice Gross Stein : The Atlantic Online : 1994)

Now, as Sergei Guriev reports,

"There is now no question that the Kremlin's military spending is threatening Russia's fiscal position, which has already been undermined by low world oil prices and the West's economic sanctions. And this spending spree shows no sign of slowing. In recent months, growth in military expenditure has accelerated rapidly, exceeding the authorities' already ambitious plans." (Moscow Times : May. 19 2015) (my emphasis)

This has to be viewed against the backdrop of NATO increasing its military footprint, especially in eastern Europe.

Putin's military adventures in Georgia, Ukraine, and now in Syria, may have reinforced his image of himself as the Czar that is regaining Russia's international prestige after the fall of the Soviet Union.

However this 'single-minded' political ambition of his has led to a Russian economy that teeters on the brink of implosion and, as a consequence, he now has to surround himself with "oprichniki" to suppress people or groups opposed to him.

As Vitaly Portnikov explains,

“As long as [Putin] was bold and energetic, as long as oil was at 120 US dollars a barrel and even his military adventures did not lead him to an immediate collapse, the president could allow himself the Ivanovs, the Shoygus, the Narshkins, and the Patrushevs.”

            While they were prepared to serve the supreme leader, they were also credible in their own eyes and in others as successors, Portnikov suggests, and thus they constituted a potential threat to Putin in his eyes – and thus he has moved in the direction of his predecessors by elevating the incompetent or the outrageous (or both at once) to his inner circle." (Paul Goble : Window on Eurasia : 5 Feb. 2016) (my emphasis)

Re-arming his Russian soldiers and proxies in eastern Ukraine, and digging himself deeper into the Syrian quagmire, are the actions of a desperate man.

(to be continued)