As the Duma elections in Putin's Russia looms large in his calendar, suddenly we find that,
"The leaders of the separatists in Ukraine's eastern regions of Donetsk
and Luhansk (left: Zakharchenko and Plotnitskiy) have announced a unilateral cease-fire starting at midnight
on September 14...
....
But it was not immediately clear why the Russia-backed separatists made the announcement more than two weeks after the sides had already agreed to another temporary truce.
The announcement comes a few hours after Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said that he expects the parliament to vote soon on constitutional amendments granting autonomy to eastern Ukraine." (RFERL : Thursday, September 15, 2016) (my emphasis)
The Putinversteher Walter Steinmeier, together with French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault, are 'cock-a-hoop' over this developement, in particular Steinmeier, current Chairman of the OSCE.
As reported by Pavel Polityuk and Andrea Shalal,
The German and French foreign ministers said on Wednesday an attempt to revive a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine from midnight could set the scene for agreement next week on further peace moves.
...
The agreement is expected at a regular meeting on Tuesday of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) with both sides in the conflict. It would be monitored and verified by OSCE observers.
...
If the ceasefire holds and the agreement is signed as expected, the foreign ministers of France, Germany, Ukraine and Russia could meet in New York next week on the sidelines of a meeting of the United Nations General Assembly. (Mail Online (Reuters) : 14 September 2016) (my emphasis) (right: Ayrault, Klimkin, and Steinmeier. Klimkin announcing new ceasefire in Donbas)
Let us now cast our minds back to April of 2015.
As reported by Alec Luhn,
"President Petro Poroshenko
has endorsed a referendum on the federalisation of Ukraine,
jumpstarting the reforms foreseen by the peace plan to end the conflict
with Russia-backed rebels in the country’s east.
.....
But analysts and politicians in Kiev argue such a move would weaken the country and allow Moscow undue influence in its politics.
....
Poroshenko left no doubt where he stood on the issue, calling federalisation an “infection” that he hinted was being forced on the country by foreign powers, apparently referring to Russia. (The Guardian : Monday 6 April 2015) (my emphasis) (left: Poroshenko flanked by Volodymyr Groysman, left, and Arseniy Yatsenyuk in 2015)
Now against the fact that the Ukrainian parliament will vote soon on constitutional amendments granting autonomy to eastern Ukraine, the past few weeks have also seen that,
"Russia has deployed 70 replacement troops to reinforce the 9th
separate assault motorized rifle regiment of the Marines Corps
(militant-held Novoazovsk) of the 1st Army Corps (Donetsk) of Russia's
Armed Forces and 50 replacement troops to enhance the 7th separate
motorized rifle brigade (militant-held Luhansk ) of the 2nd Army Corps
(Luhansk) of Russia's Armed Forces" (UT: Aug. 8, 2016)
As also reported by
August 13, 2016) (my emphasis)
Which raises the rather fundamental question viz.
"Since Minsk2 specifies that immediately after a full ceasefire there should be:
Is Putin actually following in the footsteps of The Grand Old Duke of York nusery rhyme, who marched his men up the hill and then down again?
I rather think not!
As reported by Damien Sharkov,
"Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko called on the EU and the world’s biggest economies not to recognize Russia’s upcoming parliamentary elections, which treat Crimea as Russian territory.
This month Russians will elect 450 lawmakers to parliament, for the first time since Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014. The U.N. does not recognize the Russian government in Crimea as legitimate and Ukraine has protested any moves or statements that treat Russia’s authority on Crimea as anything but an illegal occupation." (Newsweek : 13 September, 2016) (my emphasis)
Added to which, this sudden announcement of a unilateral ceasefire by Putin's rebels in the Donbas, Zakharchenko and Plotnitskiy, signifies more than anything else that Putin is angered by the fact that,
"Ukrainian
President Petro Poroshenko on Thursday welcomed a decision by the
International Monetary Fund to release additional aid worth $1 billion
to Kiev, saying it showed that the world recognises that Ukraine was
carrying out reforms.
The
IMF's decision would also help keep the Ukrainian hryvnia currency
stable and maintain macroeconomic stabilisation, Poroshenko said, adding
that a Russian attempt to undermine the IMF's decision had failed." (Natalia Zinets : Reuters :
Xinhua: 31 August, 2016) (my emphasis)
By contrast,
"Does Putin now want to hand back a totally devastated Donbas to Ukraine in the hope that this will destroy the current green shoots of recovery in the Ukrainian economy"?
(to be continued)
"The leaders of the separatists in Ukraine's eastern regions of Donetsk
and Luhansk (left: Zakharchenko and Plotnitskiy) have announced a unilateral cease-fire starting at midnight
on September 14.......
But it was not immediately clear why the Russia-backed separatists made the announcement more than two weeks after the sides had already agreed to another temporary truce.
The announcement comes a few hours after Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said that he expects the parliament to vote soon on constitutional amendments granting autonomy to eastern Ukraine." (RFERL : Thursday, September 15, 2016) (my emphasis)
The Putinversteher Walter Steinmeier, together with French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault, are 'cock-a-hoop' over this developement, in particular Steinmeier, current Chairman of the OSCE.
As reported by Pavel Polityuk and Andrea Shalal,
The German and French foreign ministers said on Wednesday an attempt to revive a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine from midnight could set the scene for agreement next week on further peace moves.
...
The agreement is expected at a regular meeting on Tuesday of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) with both sides in the conflict. It would be monitored and verified by OSCE observers....
If the ceasefire holds and the agreement is signed as expected, the foreign ministers of France, Germany, Ukraine and Russia could meet in New York next week on the sidelines of a meeting of the United Nations General Assembly. (Mail Online (Reuters) : 14 September 2016) (my emphasis) (right: Ayrault, Klimkin, and Steinmeier. Klimkin announcing new ceasefire in Donbas)
Let us now cast our minds back to April of 2015.
As reported by Alec Luhn,
"President Petro Poroshenko
has endorsed a referendum on the federalisation of Ukraine,
jumpstarting the reforms foreseen by the peace plan to end the conflict
with Russia-backed rebels in the country’s east......
But analysts and politicians in Kiev argue such a move would weaken the country and allow Moscow undue influence in its politics.
....
Poroshenko left no doubt where he stood on the issue, calling federalisation an “infection” that he hinted was being forced on the country by foreign powers, apparently referring to Russia. (The Guardian : Monday 6 April 2015) (my emphasis) (left: Poroshenko flanked by Volodymyr Groysman, left, and Arseniy Yatsenyuk in 2015)
Now against the fact that the Ukrainian parliament will vote soon on constitutional amendments granting autonomy to eastern Ukraine, the past few weeks have also seen that,
As also reported by
August 13, 2016) (my emphasis)Which raises the rather fundamental question viz.
"Since Minsk2 specifies that immediately after a full ceasefire there should be:
- Pull-out of all heavy weapons by both sides to equal distance with the aim of creation of a security zone on minimum 50 kilometres (31 mi) apart for artillery of 100mm calibre or more, and a security zone of 70 kilometres (43 mi) for multiple rocket launchers (MRLS) and 140 kilometres (87 mi) for MLRS Tornado-S, Uragan, Smerch, and Tochka U tactical missile systems:
- for Ukrainian troops, from actual line of contact;
- for armed formations of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine, from the contact line in accordance with the Minsk Memorandum as of 19 September 2014 The pullout of the above-mentioned heavy weapons must start no later than the second day after the start of the ceasefire and finish within 14 days.(Wikipedia)
Is Putin actually following in the footsteps of The Grand Old Duke of York nusery rhyme, who marched his men up the hill and then down again?
As reported by Damien Sharkov,
"Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko called on the EU and the world’s biggest economies not to recognize Russia’s upcoming parliamentary elections, which treat Crimea as Russian territory.
This month Russians will elect 450 lawmakers to parliament, for the first time since Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014. The U.N. does not recognize the Russian government in Crimea as legitimate and Ukraine has protested any moves or statements that treat Russia’s authority on Crimea as anything but an illegal occupation." (Newsweek : 13 September, 2016) (my emphasis)
Added to which, this sudden announcement of a unilateral ceasefire by Putin's rebels in the Donbas, Zakharchenko and Plotnitskiy, signifies more than anything else that Putin is angered by the fact that,
"Ukrainian
President Petro Poroshenko on Thursday welcomed a decision by the
International Monetary Fund to release additional aid worth $1 billion
to Kiev, saying it showed that the world recognises that Ukraine was
carrying out reforms.The
IMF's decision would also help keep the Ukrainian hryvnia currency
stable and maintain macroeconomic stabilisation, Poroshenko said, adding
that a Russian attempt to undermine the IMF's decision had failed." (Natalia Zinets : Reuters : Xinhua: 31 August, 2016) (my emphasis)
By contrast,
- Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development has announced a new “baseline plus” plan for the Russian economy, despite concerns that the country's original economic strategy remains unbalanced, the Vedomosti business daily reported Tuesday. (Moscow Times : Aug. 30 2016) (my emphasis)
- The baseline plan will see the country's deficit rise significantly above the 3.2 percent target set out by the Finance Ministry. “This kind of policy means that demand will shrink, funds will become exhausted, and there will be nothing to eat,” the source said. (ibid Moscow Times)
"Does Putin now want to hand back a totally devastated Donbas to Ukraine in the hope that this will destroy the current green shoots of recovery in the Ukrainian economy"?
(to be continued)
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