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Wednesday, 21 September 2016

What Putin gains on the political roundabout he is about to lose on the economic downturn of the Russian economy.

It should come as no surprise that, as reported by Molly O’Toole and Reid Standish (left),

" .. [I]nvited to meet with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly this week, Trump’s campaign didn’t even bother to send Kiev an RSVP.

A spokesperson for the Ukrainian presidential administration told Foreign Policy they reached out to both Trump and his Democratic rival, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, to meet with Poroshenko. According to the official, only Clinton said yes, sitting down with the president on Monday. The Trump campaign did not give a clear answer." (Foreign Policy : September 20, 2016) (my emphasis)


As
How did an alleged and notorious Russian mobster [Alimzhan Tokhtakhounov (right)] connected to an illegal international gambling ring run out of Trump Tower end up as a special guest at a Donald Trump event in Moscow in 2013?
....
Trump's associations with Russia have sparked assorted controversies. He has praised Russian leader Vladimir Putin and made a series of contradictory remarks regarding his relationship with the autocrat." (Mother Jones : Sep. 14, 2016) (my emphasis)

Kurt Eichenwald is correct when he poses the question,

"[W]ill Trump instead choose to be the most conflicted president in American history, one whose business interests will constantly jeopardize the security of the United States?" (Newsweek :  14 September, 2016) (my emphasis)

One can only guess at what a Trump presidency will do for Putin in his war with Ukraine.

This is not the only frightening prospect that Poroshenko now has to confront.

The gains of the far right Alternative for Germany (AfD) political party has,

"... won the highest share of the vote for the far-Right in Berlin since the Second World War ..
...
The Berlin gains represent new territory for the AfD, most of whose previous successes have been in impoverished areas of the former communist east." (

 

In October 2014 I wrote that,

"It is rather ironic that the Kremlin and Putin's propaganda machines are constantly propagating the lie about 'fascists and neo-Nazis' being elected to the Ukrainian parliament, whilst at the same time rolling out the red carpet for neo-Nazi and right-wing European organizations.


Thus it was that Marine Le Pen, the neo-Nazi leader of France, was treated like a cabinet minister by top Russian politicians, whilst the British Fascist leader of the BNP party endorsed Russian elections in Russia. As John Vinocur has commented," Marine Le Pen wants to neuter the EU as a political force. The Kremlin couldn't ask for a better ally." (my emphasis) (blog: Thursday, 30 October 2014)

As also reported by Melanie Amann and Pavel Lokshin,

"Marcus Pretzell (right) is waiting. He's a member of the European Parliament with the right-wing populist party Alternative for Germany (AfD) 
...
"We at Alternative for Germany represent not only a threat to the Ukrainian government, but also to the German government," he proudly announces. The audience applauds. He then goes on to say that good economic relations with Russia "are in the interest of the German people" and that sanctions should be lifted immediately. The applause grows." (Der Spiegel : April 27, 2016) (my emphasis)

Throughout the EU, Putin has assiduously cultivated links with BOTH the Far Right and the Far Left. 

How deep his financial support for these political parties goes, particularly for Far Right parties, can be evidenced by the fact that in 2015, Marine Le Pen's 'Front Nationale',

" ...  may have been given a multi-million-euro loan by a Russian bank as a "reward" for backing President Putin's annexation of Crimea, according to text messages released by Russian hackers.
...
The loan was the first instalment of Russian-backed loans of 40m euros that would fund the cash-strapped Front National in the run-up to the 2017 presidential campaign, Mediapart reported. " (04 Apr 2015) (my emphasis)

Putin is now beginning to reap rich political dividends from his ongoing support for Right-Wing and Left-Wing parties in the EU.

Already we have, following Brexit, Matteo Renzi (Italian Prime Minister),

"..[saying] that he was "not satisfied with the conclusions on growth and immigration" and therefore could not share the press conference held by Merkel and Hollande." (Ansa :16 September 2016) (my emphasis)

At this stage Putin may not be overtly concerned about the outcome of the American Presidential elections. A Trump victory will simply be 'the cherry on the cake', so to speak.

The fact that deep divisions are beginning to appear amongst the leading Euro economies in the EU, and that populist Right Wing parties in the EU are now in the ascendent, is bringing to fruition his long cherished aim of bringing down the EU.

These divisions, however, may not be enough to protect him from the Russian people themselves.

It was a foregone conclusion the Putin would be victorious in the Duma elections.

These 'crushing gains' that he achieved should, however, be viewed against the fact that,

"Less than half Russia's registered voters turned up at polling station in this election, meaning that the new Duma was chosen by less than 50 percent of Russians. In some regions, less than one third of registered voters participated. Turnout in Russia as a whole was at 47.9 percent." (Meduza : 19 september 2016) (my emphasis)

In the West, such figures would be a relection of 'voter apathy', more than anything else.

In Putin's Russia it represents something more than mere 'apathy'. And Putin is well aware of this.

Winter is approaching and,

"After almost two years in recession, the country's rainy day fund has shrunk to just $32.2 billion this month, according to the Russian Finance Ministry. It was $91.7 billion in September 2014, just before oil prices started to collapse.

And it's getting worse. Analysts expect the fund will shrink to just $15 billion by the end of this year and dry up completely soon after that." (CNN Money :

How will Putin cope with the glaring economic facts that has already thrown millions of Russians into increasingly dire poverty? (cf: Germain Moyon : France24: 21 September 2016)
 
(to be continued)

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