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Tuesday 27 November 2018

Both Putin and Trump are now teetering on the brink of lighting the touchpaper of World War3.

In my last blog entry (25 Nov., 2018), just before Putin escalated his war with Ukraine in the Sea of Asov, I wrote that,

"We therefore have to ask ourselves,

"Will the upcoming talks in Berlin to-morrow (26 Nov.,2018) about the deployment of UN peace-keepers in the Donbas really reach a positive agreement between Ukraine, Germany, France and Russia?" (cf. UNIAN-22 November)

More importantly,

"What will Trump offer Putin at the upcoming G20 summit?" (Blog : 25 Nov., 2018)

Let us recall that Trump constantly blames Obama for Ukraine losing Crimea.

Trump has never acknowledged that Putin INVADED and ILLEGALLY ANNEXED Ukraine's Crimea. 


As also reported by RFE/RL as recently as November 7th.,

"U.S. President Donald Trump blamed the “regime” of former President Barack Obama for Ukraine’s loss of its Crimean Peninsula, which was seized and annexed by Russia in 2014
...
Trump made the comments during a wide-ranging and sometimes hostile news conference at the White House on November 7 to comment on the U.S. midterm election results." (RFE/RL : 7th Nov., 2018) (my emphasis)

Trump's position stands in direct contrast to the statement released by Mike Pompeo, US Secretary of State, who stated that,

"To-day the Trump administration is releasing what we are calling the Crimea Declaration ... but one part reads as follows, quote,

"The United States calls on Russia to respect the principles to which it has long claimed to adhere, and to end its occupation of Crimea. I want to assure this committee that the United States does not and will not recognize the Kremlin's purported annexation of Crimea" (Jason Lemon : Newsweek : 7 Nov., 2018) (my emphasis)


This disconnect between Trump and his Secretary of State has been thrown into sharp relief by Putin's dangerous escalation of his war with Ukraine at the Kerch strait leading into the Sea of Azov.

On Sunday 25th November, 2018, Putin ordered his navy to attack Ukraine's ships trying to pass through the Kerch Strait towards Ukrainian ports on its Sea of Azov coastline.

As reported by the BBC,

"The three [Ukrainian] ships were sailing off the coast of Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in 2014, when they were seized.

Russia opened fire, before its special forces stormed the vessels. Between three and six Ukrainians were injured.

Ukraine said it was a Russian "act of aggression". Moscow said the ships had illegally entered its waters." (BBC News: 26 Nov., 2018) (my emphasis)

BBC News: 26 Nov., 2018

The furore that Putin's aggression against Ukraine at the Kerch strait leading into the Sea of Azov has caused in international diplomatic circles has put a spotlight on Trump and Putin's arranged meeting at the G20 in Buenos Aires in 2 days time.

Putin's Kremlin mouthpiece, Dmitry Peskov, has stated that,

"The situation over the Kerch Strait does not affect preparations for a meeting between Russian President Vladimir  Putin and his US counterpart Donald Trump at the G20 in Buenos Aires, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov, said" (MSNBC1 & MSNBC2: 26 Nov., 2018) (my emphasis)


So to the questions posed at the top of this blog viz.
  • "Will the upcoming talks in Berlin to-morrow (26 Nov.,2018) about the deployment of UN peace-keepers in the Donbas really reach a positive agreement between Ukraine, Germany, France and Russia?" AND
  • "What will Trump offer Putin at the upcoming G20 summit?"
the answers can categorically be stated that,
  • The Berlin talks have failed even before they had begun, and
  • Expect Trump to reinforce Putin's hold over Ukraine's Crimea by soft-peddling Putin's escalation of his war with Ukraine at the Kerch Strait that leads into the Sea of Azov.   

As former Ukrainian lieutenant-general Igor Romanenko (right) recently said,

".... the blocking of ships [at the Kerch Strait by Putin's forces] could prompt the West to impose further sanctions on Russia, which could have devastating consequences.
 ...
He said a "large-scale war" is possible if Russia continues to "aggravate the situation" in the Sea of Azov by conducting invasive inspections and seizing fishing ships. (UNIAN : 23 November, 2018) (my emphasis)

Both Putin and Trump are now teetering on the brink of lighting the touchpaper of World War3.
(to be continued)

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