Is the Kerch Strait incident the 'Black Swan' event that will lead to all-out war between Ukraine and Putin?

It was Harold Wilson (left), former British Prime Minister (1964-1976), who said that,

"A week is a long time in politics" (BritPolitics)

That was 50 years ago.

In to-day's digital age we can safely say that,

"A day is a long time in politics".

In my blog entry of 25th Nov., 2018 entry I posed the question,

"What will Trump offer Putin at the upcoming G20 summit in Buenos Aires?"

That question has now been answered by Trump himself, as his tenuous hold on the position of the Presidency of the United States becomes even more tenuous as further revelations of his links with Putin during the 2016 US presidential elections bursts onto the international stage.

As reported by BBC News,

"US President Donald Trump has cancelled a meeting with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, in protest at Russia's seizure of Ukrainian naval boats.
...
Mr Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said Moscow regretted the decision. But in his initial reaction to reports of the cancellation he said: "If this is so, the president will have a couple of extra hours in the programme for useful meetings on the sidelines of the summit."  " (BBC News : 30 Nov., 2018) (my emphasis)

 MSNBC 29 Nov., 2018

So why has Trump, suddenly (and out of character!), cancelled his meeting with Putin at the G20 in Buenos Aires?

As reported by Mark Mazzetti, Benjamin Weiser, Ben Protess and Maggie Haberman

"Donald J. Trump was more involved in discussions over a potential Russian business deal during the presidential campaign than previously known, his former lawyer Michael D. Cohen said Thursday in pleading guilty to lying to Congress. Mr. Trump’s associates pursued the project as the Kremlin was escalating its election sabotage effort meant to help him win the presidency." (New York Times : 29 Nov., 2018) (my emphasis)

MSNBC Nov. 29, 2018

"What", you may ask, "has this to do with Putin's invasion and annexation of Ukraine's Crimea, his ongoing war with Ukraine in the Donbas and, more recently, the dangerous escalation of his war with Ukraine with his attack on Ukraine's ships at the Kerch Strait leading into the Sea of Azov?"

The Maidan Revolution in 2014, that has led to crippling US-EU sanctions against Putin and his 'siloviki', and which Putin thought he could get rid of by helping Donald Trump gain the US presidency in 2016!

The Scarlet Thread of Maidan is inextricably woven into the the truths that are now surfacing about the direct collusion between Putin and Trump during the 2016 US presidential elections.

Let us recall that at the 2016 Republican convention, it was Diana Denman (right), a platform committee member from Texas, who had proposed at the Republican National Security Committee platform meeting in Cleveland,

".... a platform amendment that would call for maintaining or increasing sanctions against Russia, increasing aid for Ukraine and “providing lethal defensive weapons” to the Ukrainian military.

As  Josh Rogin (left) then reported,

"The Trump campaign worked behind the scenes last week
to make sure the new Republican platform won’t call for giving weapons to Ukraine to fight Russian and rebel forces, contradicting the view of almost all Republican foreign policy leaders in Washington."
...
Throughout the campaign, Trump has been dismissive of calls for supporting the Ukraine government as it fights an ongoing Russian-led intervention. Trump’s campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, worked as a lobbyist for the Russian-backed former Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych for more than a decade." (Josh Rogin : Washington Post : July 18, 2018) (my emphasis) 

We now learn that Trump's fawning attitude towards Putin, besides being motivated by his desire for a 'Trump Tower' in Moscow, may also be due to his near pathological fear of the public exposure  of the 'kompromat' that Putin has on him, as revealed in the Steele Dossier.

Rachel Maddow: MSNBC 29/11/2018 (Full Analysis)

Now that the Putin-Trump meeting at the G20 has been cancelled, all eyes will be focused on the Merkel-Putin meeting that has been pre-arranged.

As reported by Duncan Ferris,

"Earlier in the day, German Chancellor Angela Merkel had committed to meeting with Putin at the G20 summit in Argentina this weekend after she condemned Russia as “entirely” to blame for the naval incident in the Kerch Strait, accusing Moscow of restricting access to the Sea of Azov

Merkel said that Russia’s actions violated a 2003 agreement that guaranteed free movement in the area, but Putin insisted that the move was justified as the Ukrainian vessels had “trespassed” into Russian waters." (WebFG News : 30 Nov., 2018) (my emphasis)

How will 'Putinversteher' Merkel deal with Putin on this international stage?

One need look no further than the joint Russian-German Nord Stream2 venture, as well as the fact that Siemens equipment now lights up Putin's annexed Ukraine Crimea

It is very easy for Merkel to condemn Putin's recent attacks on Ukraine's ships at the Kerch Strait.

But how is the world to confront the fact that,

"Vadim Astafyev, a spokesman for Russia’s southern military district, was cited by Russian news agencies as saying that a new battalion of advanced S-400 surface-to-air missiles would be delivered to Crimea soon and become operational by year’s end." (Andrew Osborn, Anton Zverev : Reuters : 28 Nov., 2018) (my emphasis)

Is the international backlash against Putin for his attack on Ukraine's ships at the Kerch Strait the 'Black Swan' event that will lead to all-out war between Ukraine and Putin? 

(to be continued)

 STOP PRESS

On the Rachel Maddow Show last night (30 Nov., 2018) it was revealed that Putin's interference in the 2016 US presidential elections was focused exclusively on getting the US sanctions against Russia lifted. 

This was Putin's primary objective in handing Trump the keys to the White House.

As I wrote earlier yesterday (30 Nov., 2018) in this blog entry, 

"The Maidan Revolution in 2014, that has led to crippling US-EU sanctions against Putin and his 'siloviki', and which Putin thought he could get rid of by helping Donald Trump gain the US presidency in 2016!" (cf. above)

Already the call for an extension of EU sanctions against Putin is meeting with LESS EU support than one may have anticipated, given Putin's preparation for a possible invasion of Ukraine as evidenced by his recent actions against Ukraine's ships at the Kerch Strait, and the delivery of a new battalion of advanced S-400 surface-to-air missiles to Crimea that will soon become operational by year’s end.

(to be continued)