Zelensky now holds political cards in his hand that neither Putin nor Merkel can ignore.

Katya Golubkova, Darya Korsunskaya, and Polina Ivanova report that,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin and his German counterpart Angela Merkel discussed the Nord Stream-2 natural gas pipeline to Germany and the transit of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine in a phone call on Monday [16 December 2019], the Kremlin said." (Reuters: 16 December 2019) (my emphasis)

 just 5 days after,

"Ukraine has welcomed expected U.S. sanctions on the Russian Nord Stream 2 natural-gas pipeline as"good news," while Germany, the main beneficiary of the project, has rejected the move as "foreign interference.
...
U.S. Senate and House committees agreed on December 9 to include a bill placing sanctions on Nord Stream 2 in the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), putting up a potential roadblock to the project's completion." (RFERL : 12 December 2019) (my emphasis)

 Youtube : 12 December 2019

Putin and Merkel are now scrambling to cobble together a deal that will allow Putin 'to save face' over allowing the transit of Russian gas across Ukraine, thus pouring money into the coffers of Ukraine.

That Putin will agree with Putinversteher Merkel is highly unlikely.

Yet both of them are caught in an inescapable economic vice.

Merkel's German economy is 50% dependent on 'exports', whilst Putin's economy is almost totally dependent on the price of oil and gas.

In the words of George Friedman,

• "Russia ... Russia is Saudi Arabia ... They depend on oil exports ... oil prices cannot be controlled by the Russians ... at $50 a barrel they cannot run the country"
• "Germany exports 50% of its GDP. Half of its economy depends on its customers buying"

Is it any wonder that Putin and Merkel are so desperate to get Nord Stream2 up and running?

Is it also any wonder that Russia [read: an angry Putin] pulls Ukrainian president's TV show off air after joke about Putin?

As reported by Nataliya Vasilyeva (left),

"TV viewers in Moscow reported that a segment with Mr Zelenskiy’s joke about Mr Putin was apparently cut out while it aired in full in Russia’s Far East, several times zones earlier.

In the episode, an assistant offers the president-elect an expensive watch and tells him that Mr Putin prefers the Swiss brand Hublot. Mr Zelenskiy mispronounces the French word and asks “Putin Hublot?” echoing a common slur in Ukraine which calls him a “d---head.” (The Telegraph : 12 December 2019) (my emphasis)


Putin will export his gas through Merkel's Germany, and Merkel's Germany will fill its coffers by pumping that gas to the rest of the EU.

But Merkel must be seen to bat for Ukraine's pipelines remaining as a minor source of filling Ukraine's coffers, even though Ukraine's pipelines are more than adequate for pumping gas to the EU, including gas for Germany. 

She must also be seen to uphold International Principles of Law.

She must therefore also be seen to condemn Putin's illegal invasion and annexation of Crimea, and his ongoing war with Ukraine in the Donbas.

But before she shuffles off the political stage into retirement, she is also determined to see Nord Steam2 up-and-running.

Zelensky can begin to take some comfort in the fact that,

•  “There was neither betrayal, nor a victory, neither a peace agreement signed, nor capitulation [by Zelensky at the recent Normandy Four meeting in Paris]],” said Iryna Herashchenko, an MP allied with former Ukrainian president Mr Poroshenko. “And at this stage this is probably good for Ukraine.” ( Roman Olearchyk and Henry Foy : Financial Times : 10 December, 2019) (my emphasis) 
•  And when asked who triumphed in their [Normandy Four meeting] exchanges, Zelenskiy said: “I don’t know who (beat) who. I think it would be appropriate to be diplomatic as we’ve just started talking. Let’s say for now it’s a draw.” (John Irish and, Margaryta Chornokondratenko : Reuters : 9 December, 2019) (my emphasis)
• Furthermore, both Zelensky and Putin have Trump's fate in their hands viz. Putin's 'compromat' on Trump (cf the Steele Dossier), and Zelensky's 'complete 25 July transcript ' of that call he had with Trump'
• Finally, Nord Stream2 still has that US 'roadblock' that it has to negotiate rather carefully 

Zelensky now holds political cards in his hand that neither Putin nor Merkel can ignore.

(to be continued)

Let’s say for now it’s a draw.

The Monday confrontation between Zelensky and the 'old guard trio' of Merkel, Macron, and Putin, has come and gone, and we are now left with trying to read the 'tea leaves' that has been left behind.

According to Roman Olearchyk and Henry Foy,

"Speaking to the press in the Elysée Palace alongside Mr Macron, German chancellor Angela Merkel and the Russian president, a tired-looking Mr Zelensky said he missed his home country after hours of negotiations that did not yield any major breakthrough. Yet, the Ukrainian leader stood firm.
...
Ukraine would not accept Russia’s annexation of the Crimea peninsula in 2014, he insisted. Kyiv would reject Moscow’s push for federalisation of the country or permanent autonomy for the breakaway eastern Donbas regions, where Russia-backed separatists are fighting government forces, he added.

“Ukraine is an independent, democratic state, whose development vector will always be chosen exclusively by the people of Ukraine,” he said. “Both Donbas and Crimea are Ukraine.” (Financial Times : 10 December, 2019) (my emphasis)

Zelensky has swum against a formidable political tide, and even though an agreement about the exchange of prisoners has been reached, John Irish and, Margaryta Chornokondratenko (left) report that,

"Asked who triumphed in their exchanges, Zelenskiy said: “I don’t know who (beat) who. I think it would be appropriate to be diplomatic as we’ve just started talking. Let’s say for now it’s a draw.” (Reuters : 9 December, 2019) (my emphasis)

To the relief of Zelensky, Roman Olearchyk and Henry Foy further report that,

“There was neither betrayal, nor a victory, neither a peace agreement signed, nor capitulation,” said Iryna Herashchenko, an MP allied with former Ukrainian president Mr Poroshenko. “And at this stage this is probably good for Ukraine.” (ibid Olearchyk and Foy) (my emphasis)

Putin, however,

"... expressed only cautious hope for the peace talks. “All this gives us the grounds to suppose that the process is developing in the right direction,” he said.

Sticking to his cool tone, when he ended his remarks to journalists in Paris, Putin thanked Merkel and Macron warmly but offered no pleasantries to Zelenskiy." (ibid John Iris and, Margaryta Chornokondratenko)

This behaviour of Putin towards Zelensky may be due to the fact that EU and US sanctions against Putin and his 'siloviki' remain firmly in place.

It also signifies that Putin blundered when he publicly stated that,

"The Minsk [II] agreements, the blueprint for peace struck in 2014 and 2015 between Mr Putin and Mr Zelensky’s predecessor Petro Poroshenko, needed to be implemented “in full”, Mr Putin said in Paris. (ibid Olearchyk and Foy) (my emphasis)

It is therefore no wonder that,

"In one episode described in a statement by Arsen Avakov, Ukraine’s interior affairs minister, the Russian president’s adviser Vladislav Surkov lost his temper. “Mr Surkov lost his nerve, threw papers on the table and yelled: ‘we did not agree to this’,” according to Mr Avakov." (ibid Olearchyk and Foy) (my emphasis)

The Common Agreed Conclusions also state that, Merkel, Putin, Macron, and Zelensky have agreed to,

" ... have another meeting in this format within four months on the political and security conditions, inter alia for the organization of the local elections." (Eleysee Palace : 9 December 2019) (my emphasis)

Could this agreement by Putin have something to do with the fact that Zelensky has, in his possession, the complete transcript of his fateful call with Trump on the 25th July, a call that is now at the very epicentre of Trump's impending impeachment and which, if publicly released, will end Trump's presidency?

Both Putin and Trump are aware of this salient political fact.

Is this why that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, met with Trump on Monday in the Oval Office, the same day as the Normandy Format meeting was taking place in Paris?  

 MSNBC : 10 December 2019

It is ironical that both Zelensky and Putin have Trump's fate in their hands viz.

• Putin's 'compromat' on Trump (cf the Steele Dossier), and 
• Zelensky's 'complete 25 July transcript ' of that call he had with Trump' 

As Zelensky stated,

"I think it would be appropriate to be diplomatic as we’ve just started talking. Let’s say for now it’s a draw.” (ibid Olearchyk and Foy)) (my emphasis)

FULL TRANSCRIPT OF COMMON AGREED CONCLUSIONS

Paris "Normandie" summit - Common agreed conclusions

9 décembre 2019 - Déclaration

The President of the French Republic, the Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany, the President of the Russian Federation and the President of Ukraine met in Paris today.

The Minsk agreements (Minsk Protocol of 5 September 2014, Minsk Memorandum of 19 September 2014 and the Minsk Package of Measures of 12 February 2015) continue to be the basis of the work of the Normandy format whose member states are committed to their full implementation.

They underline their shared aspiration to a sustainable and comprehensive architecture of trust and security in Europe, based on the OSCE principles, for which the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine is one of several important steps.

On this basis, they decide on the following:

1. Immediate measures to stabilize the situation in the conflict area

The sides commit to a full and comprehensive implementation of the ceasefire, strengthened by the implementation of all necessary ceasefire support measures, before the end of the year 2019.

They will support the development and implementation of an updated demining plan, on the basis of the decision of the Trilateral Contact Group on demining activities, dated March 3, 2016.

They will support an agreement within the Trilateral Contact Group on three additional disengagement areas, with the aim of disengaging forces and equipment by the end of March 2020.

They encourage the Trilateral Contact Group to facilitate the release and exchange of conflict-related detainees by the end of the year, based on the principle of “all for all”, starting with “all identified for all identified”, with the understanding that international organisations including the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) be granted full and unconditional access to all detained persons.

They will support an agreement within the Trilateral Contact Group, within 30 days, on new crossing points along the line of contact, based primarily on humanitarian criteria.

They recall that the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine (SMM) should be able to use all possibilities of the 21 March 2014 mandate, and have safe and secure access throughout Ukraine in order to fully implement its mandate.

2. Measures to implement the political provisions of the Minsk agreements

The sides express interest in agreeing within the Normandy format (N4) and the Trilateral Contact Group on all the legal aspects of the Special Order of Local Self-Government - special status - of Certain Areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk Regions - as outlined in the Package of Measures for the Implementation of the Minsk Agreements from 2015 - in order to ensure its functioning on a permanent basis.

They consider it necessary to incorporate the “Steinmeier formula” into the Ukrainian legislation, in accordance with the version agreed upon within the N4 and the Trilateral Contact Group.

3. Follow up

They ask their Ministers of Foreign Affairs and Political Advisors to ensure the implementation of the agreements reached and they agree to have another meeting in this format within four months on the political and security conditions, inter alia for the organization of the local elections.

Zelensky will be treading water at Monday's Normandy Format meeting. Will he survive, or will he drown.

Tony Barber reported that,

"In fact, much more will be at stake when the leaders of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine meet in Paris on December 9 for their first direct talks about the region in more than three years.

The heart of the matter is whether western governments and Russia are in the mood for a lasting accommodation over Ukraine, the pivotal country in Europe’s post-cold war order. Even though the US will be absent from the Paris discussions, Washington knows no less than its allies that stability on the European continent will never be assured as long as Ukraine’s place in this order remains undefined." (Financial Times : 5 December 2019) (my emphasis)

He further reported that,

"The ghost at the Paris talks will be US President Donald Trump’s administration. The presidential impeachment inquiry being conducted by the House of Representatives has shone a light on American policy towards Ukraine. (ibid Tony Barber) (my emphasis)

As a former President Bush Security Advisor, Juan Zarate, states,

"This is the big untold story. How much the Ukrainians are weak and affected not just by the call [July 25] .. not just the question of the controversy ..  but by the ongoing impeachment drama while Zelensky's trying to govern ... while he's trying to build credibility, and while on Monday he's going to face Vladimir Putin in negotiations over what happens next in Ukraine ..." (MSNBC : 6 December 2019) (my emphasis)

"In practice, some western capitals have quietly written off Crimea and do not wish to encourage Ukraine’s hopes of joining Nato and the EU. Rather, they think Ukraine should be satisfied with a status similar to that of Finland during the cold war. It was a democracy, but neutral rather than in the western camp, and careful never to tread on Moscow’s toes." (ibid Tony Barber) (my emphasis)

Step forward Angela Merkel and Emanuelle Macron, two of the central players in the Normandy Format meeting that will be held in France on Monday.

Let us remind ourselves of Angela Merkel's great admiration of that minor German princess that became the Catherine the Great of Russia. 

" ...Catherine the Great (Екатери́на Вели́кая, Yekaterina Velikaya), born Princess Sophie of Anhalt Zerbst, was Empress of Russia from 1762 until 1796, the country's longest-ruling female leader. She came to power following a coup d'état that she organised—resulting in her husband, Peter III, being overthrown." (Wikipedia)

Interestingly,

"... she governed at a time when the Russian Empire was expanding rapidly by conquest and diplomacy. In the south, the Crimean Khanate was crushed following victories over the Ottoman Empire in the Russo-Turkish wars..." (Wikipedia)

And then, of course, we have French President Macron ...

Youtube: 24 May 2018

And amidst all this "mutual admiration society" between Putin and Macron, and Putin and Merkel, UNIAN reports that,

"The armed forces of the Russian Federation and its mercenaries violated the ceasefire 14 times on December 6. Two Ukrainian soldiers were wounded in enemy shelling," (UNIAN: 7 December 2019) (my emphasis)"

 whilst at the same time,

"Only 14.6% of those polled in Ukraine support the idea of granting special status to the self-proclaimed republics – the "Donetsk People's Republic" ("DPR") and the "Luhansk People's Republic" ("LPR") – within the territory of Ukraine." (UNIAN : 6 December 2019) (my emphasis)

The granting of special status to the Putin-controlled area of the Donbas is a KEY demand of Putin, and a demand that Merkel and Macron will also be forcing Zelensky to make.

The 'mythical' "Steinmeier Formula" revolves around this critical concession of granting special status to the Putin-controlled area of the Donbas that has to be made by Zelensky if he is to keep his promise to the Ukrainian electorate that he will end Ukraine's war with Putin in the Donbas.

Zelensky may believe that the mere fact that Putin's attendance at Monday's Normany Format meeting, after years simply dismissing these meetings as somewhat beneath contempt, signals a movement forward in ending Ukraine's war with Putin is a belief that is akin to an alchemist being able to turn base metals into gold.

The 'Trump elephant in the room' at Monday's meeting simply cannot be ignored either.

Zelensky will be treading water at Monday's Normandy Format meeting. Will he survive or will he drown.

(to be continued)

-:STOP PRESS :-

Joel Gehrke (left) reported that,

"NATO allies are warning French President Emmanuel Macron not to “soften” his support for Kyiv days before he hosts a summit focused on resolving the conflict between Russia and Ukraine" (Washington Examiner : 7 December 2019) (my emphasis)

He further reports that,

"Estonian Defense Minister Juri Luik (right) told the Washington Examiner, emphasizing that Macron and Merkel should not try “mediating” between Zelensky and Putin. “I see their role more as facilitators, but also people who guarantee that the international community is present and Putin cannot use his trump cards of, de facto, having conquered parts of Ukraine.” (ibid Joel Gehrke)

Joel Gehrke also reports that Christopher Skaluba, director of the Atlantic Council’s Transatlantic Security Initiative, stated that,

“It's hard not to think that by legitimizing Putin, legitimizing Russia, trying to invite them back into the conversation, that they're somehow not getting a pass for what happened in Crimea, what is currently happening in eastern Ukraine,”
...
“So, I'm sure if you're a Ukrainian official, a Ukrainian citizen, you feel a little bit hung out to dry.”