Zelensky will be treading water at Monday's Normandy Format meeting. Will he survive, or will he drown.

Tony Barber reported that,

"In fact, much more will be at stake when the leaders of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine meet in Paris on December 9 for their first direct talks about the region in more than three years.

The heart of the matter is whether western governments and Russia are in the mood for a lasting accommodation over Ukraine, the pivotal country in Europe’s post-cold war order. Even though the US will be absent from the Paris discussions, Washington knows no less than its allies that stability on the European continent will never be assured as long as Ukraine’s place in this order remains undefined." (Financial Times : 5 December 2019) (my emphasis)

He further reported that,

"The ghost at the Paris talks will be US President Donald Trump’s administration. The presidential impeachment inquiry being conducted by the House of Representatives has shone a light on American policy towards Ukraine. (ibid Tony Barber) (my emphasis)

As a former President Bush Security Advisor, Juan Zarate, states,

"This is the big untold story. How much the Ukrainians are weak and affected not just by the call [July 25] .. not just the question of the controversy ..  but by the ongoing impeachment drama while Zelensky's trying to govern ... while he's trying to build credibility, and while on Monday he's going to face Vladimir Putin in negotiations over what happens next in Ukraine ..." (MSNBC : 6 December 2019) (my emphasis)

"In practice, some western capitals have quietly written off Crimea and do not wish to encourage Ukraine’s hopes of joining Nato and the EU. Rather, they think Ukraine should be satisfied with a status similar to that of Finland during the cold war. It was a democracy, but neutral rather than in the western camp, and careful never to tread on Moscow’s toes." (ibid Tony Barber) (my emphasis)

Step forward Angela Merkel and Emanuelle Macron, two of the central players in the Normandy Format meeting that will be held in France on Monday.

Let us remind ourselves of Angela Merkel's great admiration of that minor German princess that became the Catherine the Great of Russia. 

" ...Catherine the Great (Екатери́на Вели́кая, Yekaterina Velikaya), born Princess Sophie of Anhalt Zerbst, was Empress of Russia from 1762 until 1796, the country's longest-ruling female leader. She came to power following a coup d'état that she organised—resulting in her husband, Peter III, being overthrown." (Wikipedia)

Interestingly,

"... she governed at a time when the Russian Empire was expanding rapidly by conquest and diplomacy. In the south, the Crimean Khanate was crushed following victories over the Ottoman Empire in the Russo-Turkish wars..." (Wikipedia)

And then, of course, we have French President Macron ...

Youtube: 24 May 2018

And amidst all this "mutual admiration society" between Putin and Macron, and Putin and Merkel, UNIAN reports that,

"The armed forces of the Russian Federation and its mercenaries violated the ceasefire 14 times on December 6. Two Ukrainian soldiers were wounded in enemy shelling," (UNIAN: 7 December 2019) (my emphasis)"

 whilst at the same time,

"Only 14.6% of those polled in Ukraine support the idea of granting special status to the self-proclaimed republics – the "Donetsk People's Republic" ("DPR") and the "Luhansk People's Republic" ("LPR") – within the territory of Ukraine." (UNIAN : 6 December 2019) (my emphasis)

The granting of special status to the Putin-controlled area of the Donbas is a KEY demand of Putin, and a demand that Merkel and Macron will also be forcing Zelensky to make.

The 'mythical' "Steinmeier Formula" revolves around this critical concession of granting special status to the Putin-controlled area of the Donbas that has to be made by Zelensky if he is to keep his promise to the Ukrainian electorate that he will end Ukraine's war with Putin in the Donbas.

Zelensky may believe that the mere fact that Putin's attendance at Monday's Normany Format meeting, after years simply dismissing these meetings as somewhat beneath contempt, signals a movement forward in ending Ukraine's war with Putin is a belief that is akin to an alchemist being able to turn base metals into gold.

The 'Trump elephant in the room' at Monday's meeting simply cannot be ignored either.

Zelensky will be treading water at Monday's Normandy Format meeting. Will he survive or will he drown.

(to be continued)

-:STOP PRESS :-

Joel Gehrke (left) reported that,

"NATO allies are warning French President Emmanuel Macron not to “soften” his support for Kyiv days before he hosts a summit focused on resolving the conflict between Russia and Ukraine" (Washington Examiner : 7 December 2019) (my emphasis)

He further reports that,

"Estonian Defense Minister Juri Luik (right) told the Washington Examiner, emphasizing that Macron and Merkel should not try “mediating” between Zelensky and Putin. “I see their role more as facilitators, but also people who guarantee that the international community is present and Putin cannot use his trump cards of, de facto, having conquered parts of Ukraine.” (ibid Joel Gehrke)

Joel Gehrke also reports that Christopher Skaluba, director of the Atlantic Council’s Transatlantic Security Initiative, stated that,

“It's hard not to think that by legitimizing Putin, legitimizing Russia, trying to invite them back into the conversation, that they're somehow not getting a pass for what happened in Crimea, what is currently happening in eastern Ukraine,”
...
“So, I'm sure if you're a Ukrainian official, a Ukrainian citizen, you feel a little bit hung out to dry.”