Zelensky now holds political cards in his hand that neither Putin nor Merkel can ignore.

Katya Golubkova, Darya Korsunskaya, and Polina Ivanova report that,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin and his German counterpart Angela Merkel discussed the Nord Stream-2 natural gas pipeline to Germany and the transit of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine in a phone call on Monday [16 December 2019], the Kremlin said." (Reuters: 16 December 2019) (my emphasis)

 just 5 days after,

"Ukraine has welcomed expected U.S. sanctions on the Russian Nord Stream 2 natural-gas pipeline as"good news," while Germany, the main beneficiary of the project, has rejected the move as "foreign interference.
...
U.S. Senate and House committees agreed on December 9 to include a bill placing sanctions on Nord Stream 2 in the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), putting up a potential roadblock to the project's completion." (RFERL : 12 December 2019) (my emphasis)

 Youtube : 12 December 2019

Putin and Merkel are now scrambling to cobble together a deal that will allow Putin 'to save face' over allowing the transit of Russian gas across Ukraine, thus pouring money into the coffers of Ukraine.

That Putin will agree with Putinversteher Merkel is highly unlikely.

Yet both of them are caught in an inescapable economic vice.

Merkel's German economy is 50% dependent on 'exports', whilst Putin's economy is almost totally dependent on the price of oil and gas.

In the words of George Friedman,

• "Russia ... Russia is Saudi Arabia ... They depend on oil exports ... oil prices cannot be controlled by the Russians ... at $50 a barrel they cannot run the country"
• "Germany exports 50% of its GDP. Half of its economy depends on its customers buying"

Is it any wonder that Putin and Merkel are so desperate to get Nord Stream2 up and running?

Is it also any wonder that Russia [read: an angry Putin] pulls Ukrainian president's TV show off air after joke about Putin?

As reported by Nataliya Vasilyeva (left),

"TV viewers in Moscow reported that a segment with Mr Zelenskiy’s joke about Mr Putin was apparently cut out while it aired in full in Russia’s Far East, several times zones earlier.

In the episode, an assistant offers the president-elect an expensive watch and tells him that Mr Putin prefers the Swiss brand Hublot. Mr Zelenskiy mispronounces the French word and asks “Putin Hublot?” echoing a common slur in Ukraine which calls him a “d---head.” (The Telegraph : 12 December 2019) (my emphasis)


Putin will export his gas through Merkel's Germany, and Merkel's Germany will fill its coffers by pumping that gas to the rest of the EU.

But Merkel must be seen to bat for Ukraine's pipelines remaining as a minor source of filling Ukraine's coffers, even though Ukraine's pipelines are more than adequate for pumping gas to the EU, including gas for Germany. 

She must also be seen to uphold International Principles of Law.

She must therefore also be seen to condemn Putin's illegal invasion and annexation of Crimea, and his ongoing war with Ukraine in the Donbas.

But before she shuffles off the political stage into retirement, she is also determined to see Nord Steam2 up-and-running.

Zelensky can begin to take some comfort in the fact that,

•  “There was neither betrayal, nor a victory, neither a peace agreement signed, nor capitulation [by Zelensky at the recent Normandy Four meeting in Paris]],” said Iryna Herashchenko, an MP allied with former Ukrainian president Mr Poroshenko. “And at this stage this is probably good for Ukraine.” ( Roman Olearchyk and Henry Foy : Financial Times : 10 December, 2019) (my emphasis) 
•  And when asked who triumphed in their [Normandy Four meeting] exchanges, Zelenskiy said: “I don’t know who (beat) who. I think it would be appropriate to be diplomatic as we’ve just started talking. Let’s say for now it’s a draw.” (John Irish and, Margaryta Chornokondratenko : Reuters : 9 December, 2019) (my emphasis)
• Furthermore, both Zelensky and Putin have Trump's fate in their hands viz. Putin's 'compromat' on Trump (cf the Steele Dossier), and Zelensky's 'complete 25 July transcript ' of that call he had with Trump'
• Finally, Nord Stream2 still has that US 'roadblock' that it has to negotiate rather carefully 

Zelensky now holds political cards in his hand that neither Putin nor Merkel can ignore.

(to be continued)