Putin has thrown down the gauntlet. How will Zelenskiy respond?

Even before his inauguration as Ukraine's next president, Putin has already pounced upon Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

Speaking at a press conference at the Belt and Road Forum in Beijing,


"Putin said on Saturday Moscow was considering offering all Ukrainian citizens fast-tracked Russian passports, a move likely to anger some politicians in Ukraine which has been at war with pro-Russian separatists since 2014." (Vladimir Soldatkin : Reuters : 27 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

Not only is Putin displaying his contempt for Zelenskiy and ALL Ukrainians but, as Soldatkin further reports,

"[Putin] also wanted to know Zelenskiy’s position on the conflict in eastern Ukraine, saying he had the impression that Zelenskiy would not implement the terms of a peace deal sealed in Minsk in 2015 despite Ukrainians being tired of the war.

Now recall that in his victory speech,

" ... Zelenskiy outlined his priorities. To start revamping the 2015 Minsk accords to end hostilities with pro-Russian separatists in the east [of Ukraine] ..." ( AFP YouTube )

As Vladimir Frolov (right) of 'The Moscow Times' wrote,

"[Zelinskiy believes that] talks with Moscow should take place in the presence of Western mediators, and the Normandy format should be remodeled to include the United States and Great Britain in a "Budapest style format""

whilst at the same time,

 "... [T]he head spokesperson of Zelenskiy's election headquarters, Dmitry Razumkov, confirmed that Zelenskiy's adherence to the Minsk negotiation process is untenable ("all the anti-Russia sanctions are linked to it"), but made it clear that Zelenskiy would not implement the Minsk agreements as interpreted by Russia" (The Moscow Times : 24 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

And now Putin is goading Zelenskiy to try and "remodel" his Minsk2 accords by remarking that,

“I’d discuss this matter with him with pleasure as I want to understand his stance ...” (ibid Vladimir Soldatkin)

And standing side-by-side with Putin, we now have his Manchurian candidate, Donald Trump, signalling that,

" ...  he is keen on pursuing allegations that Ukraine tried to hamper his presidential bid in 2016.

Speaking on his favorite Fox News Channel, which provides uncritical, partisan support for Trump, the president said “big” and “incredible” new allegations have emerged that Ukraine tried to influence the outcome of the 2016 election in favor of his rival, Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton." (Askold Krushelnycky : KyivPost : 27 April, 2019) (my emphasis) (Fox News : YouTube : 25 April 2019)

And whilst Manchurian candidate Trump is standing side-by-side with Putin, Christopher Miller reports that,

"The U.S. State Department has slammed an order by Russian President Vladimir Putin to simplify the procedure for people living in parts of eastern Ukraine held by Russia-backed separatists to obtain Russian citizenship.

"Russia, through this highly provocative action, is intensifying its assault on Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity," the State Department said in a statement on April 24." (RFERL : 24 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, US Congressional Representative Michael McCaul (right) is urging that,

"Washington should increase foreign military sales and security assistance to Ukraine.
.......
There are more actions we can take. Specifically, we should develop an effective Black Sea strategy where the United States, NATO, and other U.S. allies can regularly deploy naval assets there to better support Ukraine against Russia.  We should also increase foreign military sales and security assistance to Ukraine." (The National Interest : 27 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

Putin has already warned that,

"Russia will take direct action to counter NATO’s drills in the Black Sea.

The country’s deputy foreign minister, Alexander Grushko, slammed the military alliance for its movements in the strategic region saying they would “undermine stability. His comments come as five NATO ships took part in Sea Shield 2019, an annual Romanian-led naval exercise in the Black Sea. When questioned on how Moscow views the military conglomerate’s build-up in the region, he responded: “Definitely negative”. (Laura O'Callaghan : Express : 14 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

And whilst Putin wants to shower Ukraine with Russian passports,

"Russia's hybrid military forces in the past 24 hours mounted 23 attacks on Ukrainian army positions in Donbas, with two Ukrainian soldiers reported as wounded in action." (UNIAN : 27 April 2019) (my emphasis)

 RFERL (26 April, 2019)

Ukraine's new incoming president, Volodmyr Zelenskiy, faces tough challenges ahead.

Putin has thrown down the gauntlet.

How will Zelenskiy respond?

(to be continued)

With Volodymyr Zelenski's election win, will Putin now pounce against Ukraine?

The euphoria of the Volodymyr Zelenskiy (left) win in Ukraine's presidential elections is over, and a bad hangover has begun to set in.

As reported by AFP (Agence France Presse),

"... [M]any doubt the political neophyte will be able to stand up to Putin and revive the struggling economy.

Questions have also been raised over his close ties to Israel-based tycoon Igor Kolomoysky." (AFP : 22 April, 2019) (my emphasis) (cf also: Zelenskiy’s team and oligarch Kolomoisky : KyivPost)

YouTube (22 April, 2019)

In his victory speech,

" ... Zelinskiy outlined his priorities. To start revamping the 2015 Minsk accords to end hostilities with pro-Russian separatists in the east [of Ukraine] ..." (cf  AFP YouTube video above)

More significantly, Vladimir Frolov (right) of 'The Moscow Times' neatly points to the stumbling blocks that president-elect Volodymyr Zelinskiy will have to face in trying to 'revamp' the 2015 Minsk accords.

• "Based on what Zelenskiy said about the Donbass, it is clear that he has only a vague understanding of the details of the agreement.  

• [Zelinskiy believes that] talks with Moscow should take place in the presence of Western mediators, and the Normandy format should be remodeled to include the United States and Great Britain in a "Budapest style format".

•  ... [T]he head spokesperson of Zelenskiy's election headquarters, Dmitry Razumkov, confirmed that Zelenskiy's adherence to the Minsk negotiation process is untenable ("all the anti-Russia sanctions are linked to it"), but made it clear that Zelenskiy would not implement the Minsk agreements as interpreted by Russia" (The Moscow Times : 24 April, 2019) (my emphasis) 

Sergey Lavrov (left), that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign Minister, has already poured cold water over Zelenskiy's rhetoric about the Minsk accords by stating that,

"Fulfilling the Minsk agreements and resolving this problem is our direct interest," Sergey Lavrov said at the Assembly of the Council for Foreign and Defence Policy. "We achieved a great feat securing Minsk II in the UN Security Council resolution." (ibid Vladimir Frolov) (my emphasis)

Even more ominously, Vladimir Frolov further states that,

"Zelenskiy will not be able to recognize Russian sovereignty over the Crimea (although he did declare that Crimea has de facto been lost to Ukraine and he has no intention of fighting Russia over it)." (ibid Vladimir Frolov) (my emphasis)

Let us remind ourselves that in 2015, a year after Putin invaded and annexed Ukraine's Crimea, Putin's then installed prime minister of Ukraine's Crimea, Sergei Aksyonov, stated that,

"Crimea's prime minister has told the BBC the peninsula has returned to its historical Russian homeland and will never again be part of Ukraine." (BBC : 16 March, 2015) (my emphasis)

Four years later (2019), the president-elect of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenski, seems to be in complete agreement with Sergei Aksyonov that Ukraine's Crimea,

" .... will never again be part of Ukraine (BBC 2015)..." and that, " ... he [Zelinskiy] has no intention of fighting Russia over it (Vladimir Frolov)

Zelenskiy (2019)       Aksyonov (2015)

And whilst president-elect Zelenskiy has no intention of fighting Russia over Ukraine's Crimea, UNIAN reports that,

"Russia's hybrid military forces in the past 24 hours mounted 14 attacks on Ukrainian army positions in Donbas, with one Ukrainian soldier reported as killed in action, and another three as wounded in action." (UNIAN : 23 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

As Justin Lynch also writes,

"Zelensky will find his sense of humor—and substance—tested even before his inauguration, which is expected to come about a month after the official results are announced, probably next week. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is not noted for his mirth, may be ready to pounce sooner amid a Russian military and naval buildup, foreign and Ukrainian military officials told Foreign Policy." (Foreign Policy : 22 April, 2019) (my emphasis) 


Will Putin now pounce against Ukraine?

 

 (to be continued)

Putin is now waiting in the wings to time his invasion of Ukraine

As the minutes slowly tick down towards Ukraine's presidential election, we learn from an online military magazine that,

"Russian officials publicly threaten Ukraine with “military conflict”, according to TASS.

Russia’s Federation Council on Wednesday approved a statement saying that violations of the rules of navigation by Ukrainian ships in the Kerch Strait are fraught with a military conflict with Russia in which NATO may be involved.
The Federation Council’s statement about NATO’s destructive policies being implemented since the alliance’s creation in 1949 was timed for the organization’s 70th anniversary." (Defence Blog : 10 April, 2019) (my emphasis) (cf also: UNIAN: 11 April, 2019)

And ominously,

"Ukrainian MP and coordinator of the Information Resistance OSINT Group Dmytro Tymchuk (left) has said the Russian Federation has sent up to 10 transportation platforms with T-72 tanks and four Grad multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) to occupied Donbas, eastern Ukraine.
...
 "Up to 10 platforms with T-72 tanks and four 122mm Grad MLRS have been redeployed from the territory of the Russian Federation," he wrote on Facebook on April 12. About 2,300 tonnes of fuel and lubricants were reportedly delivered from Russia for its occupation forces in Donbas, Tymchuk added." (UNIAN : 12 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

Is this a response to the fact that,

"Construction of Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline to Germany is bound to face further long delays, forcing Moscow to come to an agreement with Ukraine on future gas transits, a senior EU official said on Thursday." (Alissa de Carbonnel (right): Reuters : 11 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

As Colin Cleary, the director for energy diplomacy for Europe at the State Department’s U.S. bureau for energy resources stated,

“[Putin's] not crazy. [Nord Stream 2] makes a lot of sense. They want to hurt Ukraine, they want to have a special relationship with Germany.” (ibid Alissa de Carbonnel)

As UNIAN also reports,

"In addition to uncertainties over the pipeline’s route due to pending approval from Denmark, and how it will comply with EU rules, [Klaus-Dieter Borchardt (left), a senior energy official at the European Commission,]
said he expected that gas transits from Germany via the Czech Republic to other EU states would also not be in place by 2020." (UNIAN : 12 April, 2019) (my emphasis)


Where all of this will head to now hangs on the choice that the people of Ukraine will make during the second round of the impending presidential election.

As Alexander J. Motyl writes,

"Ukraine's TV president [played by the presidential contender Volodymyr Zelensky (right)] is dangerously pro-Russian.
...
Unforgivable is the absence from [Volodymyr Zelensky's comic] show of Russia or Russian President Vladimir Putin. In its alternate universe, Crimea and Donbass are not occupied. There is no war. There are no deaths. There is no mention of Russian attempts to quash Ukrainian independence since 1991. 
......
 At best, then, a President Zelensky would be prone to serious mistakes in his relations with Putin; at worst, he might be willing to make concessions that would hollow out Ukrainian sovereignty." (Foreign Policy : 1 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

Already Zelensky promises to revive the 'dead horse' of Minsk2.

"In case he wins, Zelenskiy intends to invite the United Kingdom and the United States to participate in the Normandy talks, whilst Putin's old pal Viktor Medvedchuk will lose his role of mediator in negotiations with Russia." (UNIAN : 10 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

At the same time,

"He is also said to be ready for direct talks with Russia with the participation of international partners, while no talks are planned with the "Luhansk People’s Republic" and "Donetsk People’s Republic" militants. (ibid UNIAN)

As I wrote in my last blog entry (7 April, 2019),

"Putin has already succeeded in propelling such a fragile 'ego'-candidate into the White House and, as Oliver Caroll writes,

“Russia sees Zelensky as a new Macron or Trump, a novice to be exploited and played with,” Frolov [the former diplomat and foreign policy expert] believes." (The Independent : 7 April, 2018) (my emphasis)

Like the Maidan revolution of 2014, the people of  Ukraine now stand at a political crossroad.

Whomsoever they choose as their next president, Putin is waiting in the wings to invade Ukraine.

(to be continued)

Putin is having sleepless nights about the Ukrainian presidential elections.

In my last blog entry (28 March, 2019) I wrote that,

"Similarly, William Barr's unprecedented conclusion that Trump did not "obstruct justice" has hit the judicial rails, and may be on the verge of 'exploding in his face'. (MSNBC: 27 March, 2019)

Barr may yet be " ... hoist by his own petard ..." meaning that the bomb-maker i.e exonerating Trump from obstructing justice, may yet be blown up by his own bomb."

In a strange turn of fate, we now have Volodymyr Zelensky (left), Poroshenko’s second-round opponent and the unexpected presidential favourite, similarly " ... hoist by his own petard .."

I refer, of course, to the absurd attempt by Zelensky, to wrong-foot President Poroshenko by calling upon hims to take a drug test before he would debate him.

Poroshenko called Zelensky's bluff (right), and now Zelensky, an actor with roles in many comedies and talk shows, has to step up to the plate to debate a seasoned politician, whom Putin hates, in a stadium packed with thousands of spectators from both camps.

Comedians normally bask in the sunshine of their supporters. They do not perform where they know that half of the audience will ridicule them.

Like Trump, their ego's are just too fragile to confront a large audience that will not shower them with adulation.

Putin has already succeeded in propelling such a fragile 'ego'-candidate into the White House and, as Oliver Caroll writes,

“Russia sees Zelensky as a new Macron or Trump, a novice to be exploited and played with,” Frolov [the former diplomat and foreign policy expert] believes." (The Independent : 7 April, 2018) (my emphasis)

And whilst Zelensky the comedian has failed in wrong-footing President Poroshenko, UNIAN reports that,

"Soldiers with 2nd Brigade Combat Team, 101st Airborne Division (Air Assault) will case their colors and deploy to Ukraine within days. About 150 soldiers will deploy in mid-April, according to a Friday release from the 101st Airborne, and they are expected to be gone for nine months." (UNIAN : 6 April, 2016) (my emphasis)

Added to which,

"Two ships from Standing NATO Maritime Group Two (SNMG2) arrived in Odessa, Ukraine this week for a routine port visit.
...
Since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, NATO has increased its presence in the Black Sea.

Patrols by NATO Maritime Groups increased in 2018 to three patrols for each group for a total of 120 days of NATO Group presence over the year, compared to two patrols for each group and a total of 80 days in 2017, say the Alliance." (George Allison: UK Defence Journal : 5 April 2019) (my emphasis) (my emphasis)

And as reported in a Putin supporting DW documentary, "On the eve of presidential elections in Ukraine, the power struggle on the Sea of Asov is coming to a head. The Sea of Azov borders both Ukraine and Russia". (DW: Youtube : 26 March 2019) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, US Oklahoma Senator Jim Inhofe (left) recently wrote that,

"Additional U.S. sanctions must be on the table to impose direct costs on Putin and his henchmen. We should also work closely with the NATO alliance to enhance our military presence and capabilities in the Black Sea region.
...
Now it’s time to increase funding for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, as well as the State Department’s security assistance programs. And a larger share of this funding should go to support defensive lethal aid that will make Ukraine a more difficult target for Putin’s aggression." (Politico Magazine: 4 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

On the economic front, Putin is now resorting to 'muzzling' his Statistical Committee so that the Russian people are kept in the dark about just by how much they are paying for Putin's dangerous adventurisms abroad.

As reported by Paul Goble (right),

"The Russian state statistical committee has announced that it will stop publishing monthly figures on the state of Russian incomes, likely because recent months have shown such a precipitous drop in them (finanz.ru/novosti/lichnyye-finansy/rosstat-prekrashchaet-publikaciyu-ezhemesyachnykh-dannykh-po-dokhodam-rossiyan-1028042521)." Window on Eurasia : 1 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

Which raises the question,

"For how long can Putin continue to pull the wool over the eyes of the Russian people about the real cost of his war with Ukraine?"

(to be continued)