Putin is now waiting in the wings to time his invasion of Ukraine

As the minutes slowly tick down towards Ukraine's presidential election, we learn from an online military magazine that,

"Russian officials publicly threaten Ukraine with “military conflict”, according to TASS.

Russia’s Federation Council on Wednesday approved a statement saying that violations of the rules of navigation by Ukrainian ships in the Kerch Strait are fraught with a military conflict with Russia in which NATO may be involved.
The Federation Council’s statement about NATO’s destructive policies being implemented since the alliance’s creation in 1949 was timed for the organization’s 70th anniversary." (Defence Blog : 10 April, 2019) (my emphasis) (cf also: UNIAN: 11 April, 2019)

And ominously,

"Ukrainian MP and coordinator of the Information Resistance OSINT Group Dmytro Tymchuk (left) has said the Russian Federation has sent up to 10 transportation platforms with T-72 tanks and four Grad multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) to occupied Donbas, eastern Ukraine.
...
 "Up to 10 platforms with T-72 tanks and four 122mm Grad MLRS have been redeployed from the territory of the Russian Federation," he wrote on Facebook on April 12. About 2,300 tonnes of fuel and lubricants were reportedly delivered from Russia for its occupation forces in Donbas, Tymchuk added." (UNIAN : 12 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

Is this a response to the fact that,

"Construction of Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline to Germany is bound to face further long delays, forcing Moscow to come to an agreement with Ukraine on future gas transits, a senior EU official said on Thursday." (Alissa de Carbonnel (right): Reuters : 11 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

As Colin Cleary, the director for energy diplomacy for Europe at the State Department’s U.S. bureau for energy resources stated,

“[Putin's] not crazy. [Nord Stream 2] makes a lot of sense. They want to hurt Ukraine, they want to have a special relationship with Germany.” (ibid Alissa de Carbonnel)

As UNIAN also reports,

"In addition to uncertainties over the pipeline’s route due to pending approval from Denmark, and how it will comply with EU rules, [Klaus-Dieter Borchardt (left), a senior energy official at the European Commission,]
said he expected that gas transits from Germany via the Czech Republic to other EU states would also not be in place by 2020." (UNIAN : 12 April, 2019) (my emphasis)


Where all of this will head to now hangs on the choice that the people of Ukraine will make during the second round of the impending presidential election.

As Alexander J. Motyl writes,

"Ukraine's TV president [played by the presidential contender Volodymyr Zelensky (right)] is dangerously pro-Russian.
...
Unforgivable is the absence from [Volodymyr Zelensky's comic] show of Russia or Russian President Vladimir Putin. In its alternate universe, Crimea and Donbass are not occupied. There is no war. There are no deaths. There is no mention of Russian attempts to quash Ukrainian independence since 1991. 
......
 At best, then, a President Zelensky would be prone to serious mistakes in his relations with Putin; at worst, he might be willing to make concessions that would hollow out Ukrainian sovereignty." (Foreign Policy : 1 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

Already Zelensky promises to revive the 'dead horse' of Minsk2.

"In case he wins, Zelenskiy intends to invite the United Kingdom and the United States to participate in the Normandy talks, whilst Putin's old pal Viktor Medvedchuk will lose his role of mediator in negotiations with Russia." (UNIAN : 10 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

At the same time,

"He is also said to be ready for direct talks with Russia with the participation of international partners, while no talks are planned with the "Luhansk People’s Republic" and "Donetsk People’s Republic" militants. (ibid UNIAN)

As I wrote in my last blog entry (7 April, 2019),

"Putin has already succeeded in propelling such a fragile 'ego'-candidate into the White House and, as Oliver Caroll writes,

“Russia sees Zelensky as a new Macron or Trump, a novice to be exploited and played with,” Frolov [the former diplomat and foreign policy expert] believes." (The Independent : 7 April, 2018) (my emphasis)

Like the Maidan revolution of 2014, the people of  Ukraine now stand at a political crossroad.

Whomsoever they choose as their next president, Putin is waiting in the wings to invade Ukraine.

(to be continued)