With Volodymyr Zelenski's election win, will Putin now pounce against Ukraine?

The euphoria of the Volodymyr Zelenskiy (left) win in Ukraine's presidential elections is over, and a bad hangover has begun to set in.

As reported by AFP (Agence France Presse),

"... [M]any doubt the political neophyte will be able to stand up to Putin and revive the struggling economy.

Questions have also been raised over his close ties to Israel-based tycoon Igor Kolomoysky." (AFP : 22 April, 2019) (my emphasis) (cf also: Zelenskiy’s team and oligarch Kolomoisky : KyivPost)

YouTube (22 April, 2019)

In his victory speech,

" ... Zelinskiy outlined his priorities. To start revamping the 2015 Minsk accords to end hostilities with pro-Russian separatists in the east [of Ukraine] ..." (cf  AFP YouTube video above)

More significantly, Vladimir Frolov (right) of 'The Moscow Times' neatly points to the stumbling blocks that president-elect Volodymyr Zelinskiy will have to face in trying to 'revamp' the 2015 Minsk accords.

• "Based on what Zelenskiy said about the Donbass, it is clear that he has only a vague understanding of the details of the agreement.  

• [Zelinskiy believes that] talks with Moscow should take place in the presence of Western mediators, and the Normandy format should be remodeled to include the United States and Great Britain in a "Budapest style format".

•  ... [T]he head spokesperson of Zelenskiy's election headquarters, Dmitry Razumkov, confirmed that Zelenskiy's adherence to the Minsk negotiation process is untenable ("all the anti-Russia sanctions are linked to it"), but made it clear that Zelenskiy would not implement the Minsk agreements as interpreted by Russia" (The Moscow Times : 24 April, 2019) (my emphasis) 

Sergey Lavrov (left), that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign Minister, has already poured cold water over Zelenskiy's rhetoric about the Minsk accords by stating that,

"Fulfilling the Minsk agreements and resolving this problem is our direct interest," Sergey Lavrov said at the Assembly of the Council for Foreign and Defence Policy. "We achieved a great feat securing Minsk II in the UN Security Council resolution." (ibid Vladimir Frolov) (my emphasis)

Even more ominously, Vladimir Frolov further states that,

"Zelenskiy will not be able to recognize Russian sovereignty over the Crimea (although he did declare that Crimea has de facto been lost to Ukraine and he has no intention of fighting Russia over it)." (ibid Vladimir Frolov) (my emphasis)

Let us remind ourselves that in 2015, a year after Putin invaded and annexed Ukraine's Crimea, Putin's then installed prime minister of Ukraine's Crimea, Sergei Aksyonov, stated that,

"Crimea's prime minister has told the BBC the peninsula has returned to its historical Russian homeland and will never again be part of Ukraine." (BBC : 16 March, 2015) (my emphasis)

Four years later (2019), the president-elect of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenski, seems to be in complete agreement with Sergei Aksyonov that Ukraine's Crimea,

" .... will never again be part of Ukraine (BBC 2015)..." and that, " ... he [Zelinskiy] has no intention of fighting Russia over it (Vladimir Frolov)

Zelenskiy (2019)       Aksyonov (2015)

And whilst president-elect Zelenskiy has no intention of fighting Russia over Ukraine's Crimea, UNIAN reports that,

"Russia's hybrid military forces in the past 24 hours mounted 14 attacks on Ukrainian army positions in Donbas, with one Ukrainian soldier reported as killed in action, and another three as wounded in action." (UNIAN : 23 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

As Justin Lynch also writes,

"Zelensky will find his sense of humor—and substance—tested even before his inauguration, which is expected to come about a month after the official results are announced, probably next week. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is not noted for his mirth, may be ready to pounce sooner amid a Russian military and naval buildup, foreign and Ukrainian military officials told Foreign Policy." (Foreign Policy : 22 April, 2019) (my emphasis) 


Will Putin now pounce against Ukraine?

 

 (to be continued)