Zelensky now stands at the political crossroads.

UNICEF, the UN Children's Agency, have reported (20 May 2020) that,

"At a time when children and families in eastern Ukraine are living under COVID-19 related movement restrictions, an increase in shelling has resulted in numerous child casualties and damaged schools in the region, making life even more unbearable for the approximately 430,000 children caught up in the six-year long conflict, UNICEF said today.

Six children were injured at home after their villages came under shelling during the first week of May alone. One incident severely injured three young girls, two of them sisters, aged 7 and 10 years old and the other a friend, also aged 7." (UNICEF : 20 May 2020) (my emphasis)

This report of UNICEF is backed up by a summary report of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine that included,

• "Compared with the previous reporting period, the Mission recorded more ceasefire violations in both Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

•  It saw mines, including some for the first time, near Maiorsk and Petrivske and in Zaitseve, Holmivskyi, and Staromykhailivka.   

• The SMM’s freedom of movement continued to be restricted.*" (OSCE Report : 23 May 2020) (my emphasis)

Further confirming the uptick of attacks by Putin's Russian soldiers and proxies in the Donbas, a video released by the Ukrainian military shows what it claims is a team of Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) snipers operating in eastern Ukraine. (RFERL : 20 May 2020)

And against this backdrop of Putin's escalation of his war with Ukraine in  the Donbas, Oliver Carroll reports that,

"On Wednesday, in his annual news conference (20 May 2020)

• Gone was the easy style of the previous year’s meeting –... During the 3 hour affair, the president’s demeanour was harder, more defensive, and plenty more irritable.
• Mr Zelensky was angry with the journalists. He snapped when they asked about a colleague who was denied accreditation to the event: “He penetrated the presidential motorcade and you have to question his upbringing,” the president said. 
• An even stranger exchange followed when he was asked why so many of his inexperienced friends were being rewarded with high office. “These are people I trust,” Mr Zelensky replied, before turning to the journalist in question: “And what about you? I’m making you an offer to work with me. Choose your position and answer for your actions.” (The Independent : 21 May 2020) (my emphasis)

At this press conference Zelensky also unveiled,

" ... the existence of Plan B and Plan C on Donbas, but the Minsk agreements remain a priority. "I'm giving myself a few more months to resolve this, so that we find this diplomatic way out of the situation under the Minsk agreements," he said at a press conference on the first year of his presidency ...
...
As for 'Minsk' and this track, we will fight for it to the end, because sanctions against the Russian Federation are connected with the Minsk agreements. And you know everyone wants to lift them – not only Russia, but also many European countries. I know their economies are also suffering over these sanctions. But, as I said, we will fight for them for a year," he said." (UNIAN : 20 May 2020) (my emphasis)

But what does, "... we will fight for them (sanctions against Putin's Russia) for a year ..." really mean??

Adding even more confusion, does "the existence of Plan B and Plan C" include the wholesale scrapping of the Minsk2 agreements??

Maybe .... just maybe ...the fact that Oleksiy Reznikov (right), Ukraine's current Vice Prime Minister, has stated that,

"The Ukrainian side is  

• looking for a way to negotiate with the participation of real representatives of Donbas, from among internally displaced persons, to have this type of consultations supported by the OSCE and the Normandy Four." (UNIAN : 18 May 2020), and

• that those Putin-controlled 'militants' now sport Russian passports that Putin has ILLEGALLY given to them, thus suddenly conferring upon them the status of 'Russian representatives',  

gives us a clue as to what may be contained in Plan B or Plan C.

Zelensky may have postponed the Ukraine-Russia peace summit until after the corona virus pandemic has subsided.  (The Brussels Times : 20 May 2020) (my emphasis)

Putin, however, has not 'postponed' his ramping up of his war with Ukraine.

Zelensky now stands at the political crossroads.

As Duncan Allan's (left) summary of  his "The Minsk Conundrum" so explicitly points out,

• The Minsk agreements of September 2014 and February 2015, which sought to end Russia’s war in eastern Ukraine, rest on two irreconcilable interpretations of Ukraine’s sovereignty – what could be called the ‘Minsk conundrum’: is Ukraine sovereign, as Ukrainians insist, or should its sovereignty be limited, as Russia demands?

• Russia sees the Minsk agreements as tools with which to break Ukraine’s sovereignty. Its interpretation reverses key elements in the sequence of actions: elections in occupied Donbas would take place before Ukraine had reclaimed control of the border; this would be followed by comprehensive autonomy for Russia’s proxy regimes, crippling the central authorities in Kyiv. Ukraine would be unable to govern itself effectively or orient itself towards the West. (Chatham House : 22 May 2020) (my emphasis)

Which political road will Zelensky choose?

(to be continued)