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Tuesday 12 May 2020

Will Putin now invade Ukraine at Mariupol?

UNIAN reports that,

"Russia's hybrid military forces on May 9 mounted 17 attacks on Ukrainian positions in Donbas, eastern Ukraine. "The Russian Federation's armed groups violated the ceasefire 17 times in the past day," the press center of Ukraine's Joint Forces Operation said in a Facebook update as of 07:00 Kyiv time on May 10, 2020." (UNIAN : 10 May 2020) (my emphasis)

These attacks by Putin's hybrid military forces in the Donbas follow those on the 8 May, in which four Ukrainian soldiers were wounded. (UNIAN : 9 May 2020) (my emphasis)

This continuous violation of the ceasefire by Putin's Russian soldiers and proxies in the Donbas comes against the backdrop of a record rise of corona-virus infections in Putin's Russia.

As reported by BBC News,

"In the last 24 hours [Russia] reported a record daily rise of 11,656 cases, bringing the official total to 221,344." (BBC News : 11 May 2020) (my emphasis)

Notwithstanding that only Spain and the US now have more reported infections Putin, nonetheless, has declared that,

"... from Tuesday (12 May) the nationwide coronavirus lockdown will be eased and businesses will go back to work. " (ibid BBC News) (my emphasis)


As I wrote in my blog entry of 21 April 2020,

"... As the economic and social fallout from the corona-virus unravels Putin's Russian and international political agenda, Putin will lash out against Ukraine."

as the UNIAN reports above (9 and 10 May) confirms.

As also reported by Jessica Resnick-Ault (left),

"Oil dropped 4% to below $30 a barrel on Wednesday as U.S. crude stockpiles ticked up and diesel inventories swelled, offsetting OPEC-led cuts in production and hopes for a recovery in demand as some countries ease coronavirus lockdowns." (Reuters : 6 May 2020) (my emphasis)

And as Putin eases his lock-down of the Russian economy, a strategic adviser to the United States, political analyst Molly McKew (right), argues that,

"The Russian policy of granting citizenship to the population of a neighboring state poses a threat to international security; therefore, the EU and NATO need to develop a comprehensive strategy to counter such hybrid Russian interventions.
..
... in the light of recent changes proposed by the President of the Russian Federation to the law on granting citizenship and develop a comprehensive strategy to counter such Russian policy." (Guildhall : 7 May 2020) (my emphasis) (translated using Google Translate)

As the Chief of Ukraine's Permanent Mission to the United Nations, Ambassador Serhiy Kyslytsya (left) reported to the UN Security Council in February of this year,

"Russia has issued over 200,000 passports to Ukrainians living in the occupied parts of Donbas.
...
Russia also pursues illegal passportization in the temporarily occupied territories of Donbas, which has now reached an industrial level – more than 200,000 persons were issued Russian passports there," the envoy told a UN Security Council (UNSC) meeting in New York City on February 18." (UNIAN : 7 May 2020) (my emphasis)

This illegal passportization of Putin now carries a greater danger for Ukraine in light of the rising corona-virus infections in Russia.


The corona-virus epidemic in Putin's Russia is throwing into a tailspin Putin's plans to increase the declining population of Russia. (cf: Lilya Palveleva and Robert Coalson : RFERL : 12 Jan 2020 and Michael Kofman : Texas National Security Review : 4 Feb 2020)

Putin now sees the incorporation of  yet more of Ukraine into his "Novorossiya" pipe-dream as a matter of even greater urgency; as a means to increase the population of Russia.

Of this Zelensky should be aware.
 
Let us recall that in my blog entry (27/12/2017) I stated that,

"

Could the sweeping corona-virus epidemic in Russia be the Black Swan event that tips Putin into invading Ukraine at Mariupol?

(to be continued)

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