War with Ukraine is NOW the ONLY tool that Putin has in his political toolbox.

The one thing that Putin has dangerously miscaculated since massing his troops along the Ukrainian-Russian border was that neither the US nor, for that matter, either NATO or critical members of the EU, will simply allow themselves to be cowed by his 'mafia-like' threats or demands.

Putin's so-called "red lines" about NATO, US, and EU support for Ukraine have now escalated into "mafia" demands that NATO, in particular, remove ALL its links and support from previous Warsaw Pact countries that now enjoy living under NATO's  protective umbrella.

                                            Channel 4 : Youtube : 20 December 2021

 

Even that "favourite" threat of Putin viz. unleashing nuclear war, has NOT made the Western supporters of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity blink!

BBC News : Youtube : 20 December 2021

As reported by Marc Bennetts,

"Moscow threatened an escalation in tensions with western countries if Nato does not meet its demand to withdraw forces from member states in eastern and central Europe, with Russian state media warning viewers that the two powers could go to war.

“The United States must sign off on its hegemony; its hegemony is over,” a presenter on the Rossiya 1 channel said,

“Either they step back voluntarily or we’ll make them do it by force. And Russia makes no guarantees about the survival of Ukraine, especially as a sovereign state. Maybe we really are on the eve of war with Nato.” (The Times : 20 December 2021) (my emphasis)

We now also learn that,

"Now the United States and Britain have quietly dispatched cyberwarfare experts to Ukraine in hopes of better preparing the country to confront what they think may be the next move by President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia as he again menaces the former Soviet republic: Not an invasion with the 175,000 troops he is massing on the border, but cyberattacks that take down the electric grid, the banking system, and other critical components of Ukraine’s economy and government." (David E. Sanger and Julian E. Barnes (right): New York Times : 20 December 2021) (my emphasis)

More significantly, the US Embassy in Ukraine has issued a 'Level 4 : Do Not Travel' to US citizens, partly because,

" .... advise U.S. citizens not to travel to Ukraine due to COVID-19 and to reconsider travel due to increased threats from Russia." (US Embassy Kyiv : 20 December 2021) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, Yuras Karmanau reports that,

"Poland and Lithuania joined Ukraine on Monday to call for stronger Western sanctions against Moscow amid a Russian troop buildup near the Ukrainian border that has fueled fears of an invasion.
...
the three leaders “called upon the international community to step up sanctions on the Russian Federation over its ongoing aggression against Ukraine and once again urged the Kremlin to de-escalate the situation by withdrawing its troops from the Ukrainian borders and temporarily occupied territories.” (AP News : 20 December 2021) (my emphasis)

It is not, however, only the US and 'some' EU countries who are strongly supporting Ukraine.

As reported by Matthew Bryza and Grady Wilson,

"Ankara is raising the stakes by doubling down on its defense cooperation with Kyiv and recommitting itself to the continued sale of dozens of Bayraktar TB2 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), much to Russia’s ire.
...
Even more compelling is Turkey’s growing concern over an expansionist (and revanchist) Russia near its borders in the Black Sea and South Caucasus regions. Ankara has responded to Moscow’s aggression by becoming one of the strongest proponents of enlarging NATO membership to include both Ukraine and Georgia—even while offering to mediate the conflict in Ukraine." (Atlantic Council : 16 Decem,ber 2021) (my emphasis)

Putin has painted himself into a corner from which there is no escape, except to do the unthinkable and plunge Russia into a war with Ukraine that will have consequences throughout Europe and, possibly, the world.

This is the ONLY tool that Putin now has in his political toolbox.

(to be continued)

Can Putin's "siloviki" reign him in from jumping into the abyss?

Today (7 December 2021) US President Biden will be having a a 'video call' with Putin amid critically mounting tensions over Ukraine.

As reported by BBC News,

"US President Joe Biden and Russia's Vladimir Putin will speak via video call on Tuesday, the White House says, amid mounting tensions over Ukraine.

It comes after Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the US had evidence that Russia had made plans for a "large scale" attack on Ukraine.
....
On Friday, Mr Biden warned he would make it "very, very difficult" for Mr Putin to "go ahead and do what people are worried he may do" The US and its European allies have discussed imposing sanctions on Russia if it takes aggressive action." (BBC News : 5 December 2021) (my emphasis)

Now recall that in my blog entry of 15 July, 2021, I wrote that,

"Putin's preparation for 'war with Ukraine' is all that he now has left in his political toolbox."

I also reported that,

"As Anders Åslund (left) observes,"Russian President Vladimir Putin is obsessed with Ukraine – or, rather, with pretending that Ukraine doesn’t exist. In his annual call-in show on June 30, he claimed that “Ukrainians and Russians are a single people.” He then published an article aimed at justifying that “conviction,” by tracing the two countries’ shared history. It is a masterclass in disinformation – and one step short of a declaration of war." (Project Syndicate : 14 July 2021) (my emphasis)

Putin is about to take a fateful step by readying the Russian army to invade Ukraine and, in so doing, dragging the EU into finally make a choice between protecting the territorial sovereignty of Ukraine and preventing a bloodbath on European soil OR simply sitting on the sidelines wringing their hands in anguish.

US President Biden is stepping up to the plate by warning Putin of the economic cost to Russia if he DARE invade Ukraine.

One is somewhat reminded of Hitler's invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1939, AFTER the German annexation of the Sudetenland in 1938. 

As Hitler stated in 1938,

"I am asking neither that Germany be allowed to oppress three and a half million Frenchmen, nor am I asking that three and a half million Englishmen be placed at our mercy. Rather I am simply demanding that the oppression of three and a half million Germans in Czechoslovakia cease and that the inalienable right to self-determination take its place.
    — Adolf Hitler's speech at the NSDAP Congress 1938" (Wikipedia)

Rather rings a bell when considering Putin's justifications regarding his war with Ukraine in the Donbass, and his illegal invasion of, and annexation of, Ukraine's Crimea into the Russian federation.

Yet for SEVEN YEARS, since 2014, powerful member states in the EU have constantly walked the line of appeasement with Putin as he ramped up his proxy war with Ukraine.

Now, as Angela Merkel packs up her belongings in the Office of the Chancellor of Germany to make way for the new German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, his pick for the new Foreign Minister of Germany, Annalena Baerbock, has long been an opponent of Nord Stream2.

As reported by Louis Westendarp,

"Germany should not grant the Nord Stream 2 pipeline regulatory approval and resist Russian "blackmail" on energy prices, Annalena Baerbock, (left) the co-chair of the German Green party, said in an interview published on Wednesday by the Funke media group.

"We can't allow ourselves to be blackmailed" by Russia, Baerbock said, adding that Moscow plays a "poker game" and is partly responsible for the high gas prices in Europe. "Gas deliveries have been driven down considerably", she said.

This is a situation "intentionally brought about" in order to "force the rapid commissioning of Nord Stream 2", Baerbock concluded." (Politico : 20 October 2021) (my emphasis)

Like Putin's "White Elephant" bridge between Russia and Crimea, the Nord Stream2 pipeline may prove to be yet another "White Elephant" of Putin's.

Provided, of course, that Annalena Baerbock can put a plug in Nord Stream2 in the face of the powerful German Industrial and Business lobby, who simply cannot wait to to fill their coffers with Russian Roubles.

Today's impending "video call" between US President Biden and Vladimir Putin will have far reaching  global political repercussions.

Can Putin's "siloviki" reign him in from jumping into the abyss?

(to be continued)

Putin's current actions now confronts us with "facing a moral choice".

In my blog post (Saturday, 9 August 2014) I wrote that,

"There is an old Hopi saying that "The truth will always float to the surface". And finally, on 31st July 2014, it is emerging that Putin and Merkel [may] have been having secret talks that will concede Crimea to Russia in exchange for ending the war between Russia and Ukraine."

And then on 13 Dec 2014, a few months after Putin illegally invaded and annexed Crimea, I further wrote that,

On July 25, 2014, Alexander Motyl (right) stated that,

"Is Putin evil? His actions certainly are, if by evil we understand behavior that willfully, consciously and purposely destroys human life. Perhaps we can call his actions undeniably evil and Putin himself "evil enough." Evil enough for what? Evil enough for condemnation by people of good will."

He continued that,

"Such countries as France and Germany, which have extensive economic relations with Russia, face a difficult moral choice. They must ask themselves whether Putin is evil or evil enough. If they decide his killing spree in eastern Ukraine is neither evil nor evil enough, they must explain -- to themselves and to the rest of the world -- just why they believe the destruction of Ukrainian, Russian, Malaysian, Dutch and other lives is not a form of evil behavior." (ibid Alexander Motyl) (my emphasis)

It really would seem that neither Michael O'Hanlon and Jeremy Shapiro  (Washington Post : December 7, 2014) would regard Putin's actions over Ukraine as evil. If so, would they regard Hitler as having being an 'evil' man?"

Seven years later, after continuously dangling the 'Sword of Damocles' over the head of Ukraine,  Putin now stands on the verge of releasing the full might of his army against Ukraine.

As reported by Alberto Nardelli and Jennifer Jacobs,

"The U.S. has shared intelligence including maps with European allies that shows a buildup of Russian troops and artillery to prepare for a rapid, large-scale push into Ukraine from multiple locations if President Vladimir Putin decided to invade, according to people familiar with the conversations.
...
The information lays out a scenario where troops would cross into Ukraine from Crimea, the Russian border and via Belarus, with about 100 battalion tactical groups -- potentially around 100,000 soldiers -- deployed for what the people described as an operation in rough terrain and freezing conditions, covering extensive territory and prepared for a potentially prolonged occupation." (Bloomberg : 21 Nov 2021) (my emphasis)

                                              Bloomberg 21 Nov 2021                                                           

  

As also reported by Howard Altman,

"Russia has more than 92,000 troops amassed around Ukraine’s borders and is preparing for an attack by the end of January or beginning of February, the head of Ukraine’s defense intelligence agency told Military Times.

Such an attack would likely involve airstrikes, artillery and armor attacks followed by airborne assaults in the east, amphibious assaults in Odessa and Mariupul and a smaller incursion through neighboring Belarus, Ukraine Brig. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov (right) told Military Times Saturday morning in an exclusive interview." (Military Times : 20 November 2021) (my emphasis)

This time, however, unlike when Putin's 'little green men' invaded and illegally occupied (to this day!) Ukraine's Crimea, Ukraine is battle-prepared for Putin's impending invasion.

And now Volodymyr Zelensky, the President of Ukraine, is not standing alone against Putin.

As reported by Natasha Bertrand, Jim Sciutto and Katie Bo Lillis,

The Biden administration is weighing sending military advisers and new equipment including weaponry to Ukraine as Russia builds up forces near the border and US officials prepare allies for the possibility of another Russian invasion, multiple sources familiar with the deliberations tell CNN.

The discussions about the proposed lethal aid package are happening as Ukraine has begun to warn publicly that an invasion could happen as soon as January. The package could include new Javelin anti-tank and anti-armor missiles as well as mortars, the sources said." (CNN : 23 November 2021) (my emphasis) (video below)

As also reported by Chris Jewers,

"The UK has signed a deal to supply warships and missiles to Ukraine as 90,000 Russian troops mass on the country's border amid rising tensions in the region. 

Defence Secretary Ben Wallace signed a treaty with Ukraine last week, under which the country's government can access financing for contracts with UK suppliers to help beef up its naval capabilities. 

It is expected to help deliver two mine counter-measures vessels (MCMV), the joint production of eight missile ships, the delivery of and retrofit of weapons systems to existing vessels, and the joint production of a frigate and consultancy and technical support for the building of naval infrastructure including the delivery of equipment." (Mail Online : 18 November 2021) (my emphasis)

Putin is now angrily and dangerously pacing around in his "covid-secured bunker".

The critical question now is whether his stalwart 'siloviki' will also "egg him on" to invade Ukraine or whether they, beholden as they are to Putin, will try to reign him in.

And just how far is the Russian people, suffering as they are under the covid-19 pandemic and increasingly dire economic straits, willing to throw their weight behind Putin in setting off an all-out war with Ukraine?

As Alexander Motyl pointed out in 2014, when Putin illegally invaded and annexed Ukraine's Crimea,  Putin's current actions now also confronts us with "facing a moral choice".

(to be continued)

Zelensky should "Be Prepared"

Ten day ago I wrote that,

"Ukraine's President Zelensky now faces a two-pronged threat from Putin.

There is Putin's escalating military preparedness on Ukraine's Western front.

And there is Putin's blackmailing of the EU to have Nord Stream2 finally certified for Gazprom to pump gas to the EU via Germany.

Neither Germany's Angela Merkel nor France's Emmanuel Macron will confront Putin's blackmailing tactic to get Nord Stream2 up and running.

Putin is now on the cusp of his invasion of Ukraine." (blog entry 2 Nov 2021) 

Events of the past few days are now confirming that yes, indeed, Putin has now gone beyond mere 'sabre rattling' in his goal to invade Ukraine.

Perhaps the most significant indicator that Putin is now readying himself to plunge into the abyss of all out war with Ukraine comes from the unlikely source of Lukashenko,  the current President of Belarus.

As the former US ambassador to Poland, Daniel Fried, explains,

"Lukashenko (left) is a dictator who is trying to remain in power. He's trying to intimidate Poland and Lithuania because those countries have been strongly supporting the Byelorussian democratic movement                  
.....
This is part of a pattern of Lukashenko's aggression. And behind him stands Vladimir Putin, whose also putting pressure, as we speak, also on Ukraine ... " (Youtube Video (below) : 11 November 2021)

Lukashenko himself is threatening to cut off gas supplies to the EU because of the ramping up of sanctions against himself and his cronies.

"We are heating Europe and they still threaten us with closing the border. And what if we shut off natural gas there. I would therefore recommend that the leadership of Poland, Lithuania, and the other headless  people think before speaking ..." (ibid Youtube video below)

[Now bear in mind that] Putin [already] cut off gas supplies through the Yamal pipeline to Germany, And since Sunday [October 31], Putin's gas giant has only been transporting half as much gas through Ukraine to Austria and southern Germany.as reported by James Lee (Express : 3 November 2021)

To completely shut off the Yamal pipeline, as threatened by Lukashenko, will cause even greater shortages in Germany, as well as in Austria, Lithuania, and Poland.

"Merkel and Putin spoke again on Thursday about Ukraine and Belarus, the Kremlin said in a statement. The Russian leader criticized Ukraine’s alleged use of combat drones in violation of a previous agreement and American military activity in the Black Sea, according to the statement." (Alberto Nardelli, Jennifer Jacobs and Nick Wadhams :Time : 11 November 2021) (my emhasis)

Putin, of course, realises that his Nord Stream2 'comrade-in-arms', Angela Merkel is, effectively, a spent German political force, and thus his current actions is a shot over the bow of the new incoming Chancellor of Germany.

Merkel's feeble attempts to shield her desire for Nord Sream2 to come on stream behind the refugee crisis on the Polish-Belarus border  is patently obvious when that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, exclaimed that,

"Separately, Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that dialogue was the only option to settle the [refugee] crisis.

"Belarus has already repeatedly suggested doing consultations at the border, to talk, to settle these issues based on international law," he told reporters. (DW : 10 November 2021),

This response of Lavrov mirrors Merkel's attitude towards Putin's war with Ukraine since 2014.

Given that Merkel is now a spent political force, Putin has to pay much much more attention to to what is coming from the White House. 

As reported by Haley Brown,

"The US is warning its European allies that Russia may be pondering a potential invasion of Ukraine as the Biden administration monitors a troop buildup on the frontier between the two nations, according to a new report. 

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Wednesday that the US is “monitoring the region very closely” and would “continue to consult closely as well with allies and partners on this issue.”

“As we’ve made clear, any escalatory or aggressive actions would be of great concern to the United States,” said Blinken, who spoke alongside his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba.

Blinken said the US did not know Russia’s intentions but said Moscow’s “playbook” has been in the past to invent provocations along its border to justify military intervention.

“We don’t have clarity into Moscow’s intentions, but we do know its playbook,” he said. “If there are any provocations that we’re seeing, they’re coming from Russia.” (New York Post : 11 November 2021) (my emphasis)

 

 

Dmitry Peskov, Putin's mouthpiece, is now suddenly denying that Putin is preparing to invade Ukraine.

As  reported by Dmitry Antonov,

"Russia on Friday dismissed as inflammatory a media report suggesting Moscow might be weighing an attack on Ukraine and accused the United States of making a series of aggressive moves in the Black Sea.
.....
The Kremlin said it was up to Moscow alone where it deployed its own forces within its own borders.
"Such headlines do nothing more than pointlessly and groundlessly fuel tensions. Russia does not pose a threat to anyone," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on a conference call." (Reuters : 12 November 2021) (my emphasis)

Let us recall that in 2015,

"On 27 February, unidentified armed men seized the local parliament and local government buildings in Crimea, raising the Russian flag.

Among them appeared to be regular soldiers without military insignia, who were dubbed the "little green men".

Mr Putin subsequently admitted deploying troops on the peninsula to "stand behind Crimea's self-defence forces". (BBC : 9 March 2015) (my emphasis)

So are we to believe Dmitry Peskov, Putin's mouthpiece, when he says that, ".... Russia does not pose a threat to anyone ..", when thousands of "little green men" are massed along the border between Ukraine and Russia?

As the old Scout Motto says, "Be Prepared".

Zelensky should "Be Prepared"

(to be continued)

Putin is now on the cusp of his invasion of Ukraine.

It should come as no surprise that Putin is upping the ante on his war front with Ukraine.

As reported by Paul Sonne,Robyn Dixon and David L. Stern,

"A renewed buildup of Russian troops near the Ukrainian border has raised concern among some officials in the United States and Europe who are tracking what they consider irregular movements of equipment and personnel on Russia’s western flank.
........
The renewed movements of Russian forces in the area come as the Kremlin embraces a harder line on Ukraine. Russian officials from President Vladimir Putin on down have escalated their rhetoric in recent months, attacking Kyiv’s Western ties and even questioning its sovereignty. Putin has warned that any expansion of NATO military infrastructure on Ukrainian territory represents a “red line” for Moscow." (Washington Post : 30 October 2021) (my emphasis) (cf also video below: Youtube : 1 November 2021)

  

As also reported by Betsy Woodruff Swan and Paul McCleary, 

"New commercial satellite photos taken on Monday confirm recent reports that Russia is once again massing troops and military equipment on the border with Ukraine after a major buildup this spring." (Politico: 1 November 2021) (my emphasis)

 Amy Mackinnon (right) further reports that, 

"U.S officials are closely monitoring Russian military activity near the border with Ukraine, which has sparked concern about Moscow’s intentions after months of escalating tensions between the two countries.

Videos and public satellite imagery that began circulating online in late October show a substantial quantity of Russian military equipment being moved near the border with Ukraine, where Russian-backed separatists have waged war against the Ukrainian military since 2014. " (Financial Times : 1 November 2021) (my emphasis)

As reported by Maria Kiselyova, we now have that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov (left), 

" [accusing] Ukrainian leaders on Monday of trying to drag Moscow into the conflict in eastern Ukraine, following an escalation in fighting between government forces and rebels in the breakaway region.

"We observe attempts to carry out provocations, elicit some reaction from the militia and drag Russia into some kind of combat action," Sergei Lavrov told Russia's state television." (Reuters : 1 November 2021) (my emphasis)

This Soviet-style false accusation of Lavrov is, no doubt, a knee-jerk response to Ukraine now receiving sophisticated drones from Turkey.

 As reported by Dorian Jones,

"Russia is warning Turkey over arms sales to Ukraine after a Turkish-made drone attacked Russian-backed rebels in Ukraine.

A Kremlin spokesman has warned that Turkey's ongoing arms sales to Ukraine threaten to destabilize the region." (VOA News : 28 October 2021) (my emphasis)

As Dmytro Kuleba writes,

"As NATO mulls over its strategy in the Black Sea region and seeks to ensure stability and security in what is an increasingly turbulent environment, Ukraine and Turkey are providing a model worth emulating by actively strengthening their strategic partnership via deepening political, military, and technical cooperation....." (Atlantic Council : 28 October 2021) (my emphasis) (left: Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu and Dmytro Kuleba : Foreign Ministers of Turkey and Ukraine)

What is further maddening Putin is the fact that, as reported by Roman Olearchyk, Max Seddon, and David Sheppard,

"Europe risks giving in to Russia if Germany approves the Nord Stream 2 pipeline as a condition for more gas supplies from Moscow, the head of Ukraine’s state energy company has said.
.......
“If anyone has any doubts about it, then Putin is telling everyone to their face: ‘You allow NS2 to become operational or you won’t get any more gas’,” Vitrenko said.

“He wants to reverse the clock and go back to the situation that we had 10, 20, 30 years ago . . . to negotiate special conditions with politicians of different countries.”

As gas prices have soared to record highs in the past two months, markets have moved frequently in response to comments from Moscow in the hope that Gazprom, Russia’s state-run gas monopoly, will increase supplies to Europe." (Financial Times : 1 November 2021) (my emphasis)

Irina Reznik and Henry Meyer (left) have also reported that,

“Putin senses an opportunity from the [gas] crisis [in the EU],” said Andrei Kortunov, head of the Kremlin-founded Russian International Affairs Council. “Russia wants to prevent the EU from dragging its feet on certifying Nord Stream 2 and start talks on long-term stable prices for gas.” (BNN Bloomberg : 13 October 2021) (my emphasis) 

And on cue, Germany is supporting Putin in  his urgent desire to get Nord Sream2 Certified to pump gas into the EU.

As reported by Joseph Nasr and Christoph Steitz,

"Allowing Nord Stream 2 to pump Russian gas to Germany will not threaten supplies to the European Union, the German Economy Ministry said on Tuesday, clearing a major hurdle for the disputed pipeline.

While the pipeline is ready to start operations, it still needs to be certified by Germany's Federal Network Agency and the ministry's supply analysis is a key requirement for the regulator to continue that process.

"In its analysis the Federal Economy Ministry concludes that granting certification is not threatening security of gas supply to the Federal Republic of Germany and the European Union," the ministry said in a statement." (Reuters : 24 October 2012) (my emphasis)

Youtube : 21 October 2021

Ukraine's President Zelensky now faces a two-pronged threat from Putin.

There is Putin's escalating military preparedness on Ukraine's Western front.

And there is Putin's blackmailing of the EU to have Nord Stream2 finally certified for Gazprom to pump gas to the EU via Germany.

Neither Germany's Angela Merkel nor France's Emmanuel Macron will confront Putin's blackmailing tactic to get Nord Stream2 up and running.

Putin is now on the cusp of his invasion of Ukraine. 

(to be continued)

Zelensky must now confront Merkel, Ursula von der Leyen, and Macron, for selling out Ukraine.

Finally the truth about the political nature of the Nord Stream2 pipeline is fast emerging.

The lie from ex German Chancellor Merkel , and current German President of the EU, Ursula von der Leyen, is now exposed for the whole world to see.

Let us recall what Ursula said in 2018 regarding the Nord Stream2 pipeline..

"If you look at the gas pipeline ...Germany is an independent country where energy supplies is concerned.." (CNBC : Aug 20 2018) (my emphasis)

And when confronted by the reporter asking,

"... And you don't think this pipeline would compromise security ..." (ibid CNBC),

Ursula von der Leyen  responded,

"No. In our own German interests we have to make sure that this is not the case ... But there are many other things to worry about" (ibid CNBC)

Let us also recall that in 2019 Jordan Stevens reported that,

"Depending on who you ask, Nord Stream 2 is either a sustainable way to ensure European energy security or a proxy for Russian hybrid warfare. With construction underway and as Germany attempts to downplay criticism of the project, concerns over security and geopolitics remain." (CNBC : 21 May 2019) (my emphasis)

As the Polish Prime Minsiter in 2019, Mateusz Jakub Morawiecki, explained,

"We also emphasise that the Nord Stream2 project is an anti-European project ...."

 (video below: CNBC Jordan Stevens report),

 And today, as gas prices spiral in the wake of world economies restarting after the slowdown due to the Covid 19 pandemic, Jake Horton reports that,

"Some analysts have suggested Russia could be holding back supplies to speed up approval of the newly-built Nord Stream 2 pipeline running directly from Russia to Germany. 

This bypasses Ukraine, and has been met with objections on geo-political as well as environmental grounds, although Russia is keen for it to come on stream." (BBC : 14 October 2021) (my emphasis)

Jake horton further reports that,

"A significant section of the mainstream European media has attributed this to Gazprom intentionally withholding supplies in order to force the German regulator and European Commission to approve Nord Stream 2," says Jack Sharples, of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies." (ibid Jake Horton (my emphasis)

It should therefore come as no surprise that, as Georgi Gotev reports,

"In the context of skyrocketing gas prices and calls for Russia to supply more gas to the EU, Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared to exclude Ukraine as a transit country for such additional supplies." (Euractiv: 8 October 2021) (my emphasis)

As an excuse to get Nord Stream2 up and running, Putin is now peddling the myth that,

"Putin explained that modern pumping equipment and new pipes allow increasing the pressure, which was not possible with the Ukrainian pipes." (ibid Georgi Gotev)
 
And in light of Putin's threat to bypass  Ukraine's pieline to the EU, Thomas Escritt reoports that,

"German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron had phone calls on Monday with the presidents of Ukraine and Russia to discuss the conflict in Ukraine, and agreed their foreign ministers should meet, the German government said." (Reuters : 11 October 2021) (my emphasis)

Thomas Escritt further reports that,

"Then, Merkel and Macron spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin, urging him to progress with the peace talks, the German government said." (my emphasis)

Suddenly we also have,

"European Council leader Charles Michel and European Commission leader Ursula von der Leyen (right) are heading to Ukraine as Europe faces a gas crisis after a surge in prices and drop in reserves." (France24 : 12 October 2021) (my emphasis)

Now recall that in my last blog entry I wrote that,

"Bear in mind that Putinversteher Merkel now acts as the Caretaker Chancellor of Germany until a post-election coalition can emerge, which will then appoint the new Chancellor for Germany. And Nord Stream2 is the pet project of BOTH Putin and Merkel." (blog entry : 29 Setember 2021)

So what can Ukraine's President Zelensky expect from either Merkel or Ursula von der Leyen?

Nothing more nor less than that he accepts the switching on of Nord Stream2 as a fait accompli in light of the EU currently facing a gas crises as their economies emerge out of their Covid 19 pandemic stagnation.

And Macron, with his eyes on becoming the leading statesman in the EU as Merkel departs from her political stage,  will also be there to support Merkel and Ursula von der Leyen in their call for switching on Nord Stream2.

The fact that the EU has now added 8 more names to their sanction list against Putin's 'siloviki' and his cronies for,

"... [having] taken biased decisions in politically-motivated cases, and prosecuted or oppressed opponents of the illegal annexation of Crimea and Sevastopol." (Council of the EU: 11 October 2021)"

smacks of nothing less than a rather pathetic political sop to soften up Zelensky as they prepare to present him with the fait accompli of switching on Nord Stream2.

Now, more than ever, Zelensky MUST stand his ground and not allow himself to be politically intimidated by the likes of Merkel, von der Leyen, or even Macron.

Zelensky must now confront Merkel, Ursula von der Leyen, and Macron, who are on the verge of selling out Ukraine.

STOP PRESS!

A rather ominous development is now taking place in Putin's Russia. Putin's dangerous 'mindset' about Ukraine has been finally exposed.

As reported by Vladimir Socor,

"The Kremlin has published an open letter to and about Ukraine, replete with insults and threats. An official public document in such a style seemed inconceivable in contemporary international relations, but the Kremlin has turned the inconceivable into fact with this letter. Published in the Moscow daily Kommersant (“Why It Is Senseless to Deal with the Current Ukrainian Leadership,” Kommersant, October 11) and amply rebroadcast by Russia’s media, the letter carries the byline of Russian Security Council’s Deputy Chairman (and former president and prime minister) Dmitry Medvedev." (Eurasia Daily Monitor : 13 October 2021) (my emphasis)

What is even more significant is that Dmitry Medvedev, the author of this letter and former stand-in for Putin as President of Russia, could not have published this letter WITHOUT the approval of Putin.

As Peter Dickinson also reports,

"Writing in Russian daily Kommersant on October 11, Medvedev outlined five reasons why he believes it is “meaningless” to engage in talks with the current Ukrainian authorities. He did so in strikingly inflammatory and vulgar language that hinted at the degree of Russian rage over Ukraine’s defiant refusal to accept Kremlin dominance." (Atlantic Council : 12 October 2021) (my emphasis)

As Dickinson further reports, and what is highly disconcerting,

"In one borderline antisemitic passage, Medvedev declared, “the current president of this exhausted country is a person of certain ethnic roots,” before going on to compare Zelenskyy to German Jews forced to collaborate with the Nazi regime" (ibid Dickinson)(my emphasis)

In light of the assertion of this letter that " .. It Is Senseless to Deal with the Current Ukrainian Leadership", value will that meeting of the foreign ministers of Germany, France, Ukraine, and Russia proposed by Merkel and Macron really be?

This ominous letter preceded Putin's assertion that, "Putin explained that modern pumping equipment and new pipes allow increasing the pressure, which was not possible with the Ukrainian pipes." (ibid Georgi Gotev).

More than ever now,  Zelensky must confront Merkel, Ursula von der Leyen, and Macron, who are on the verge of selling out Ukraine.

 

 

 

 

 

(to be continued)

Is Putin now ready to cut off gas supplies to Ukraine?

The current spike in the global price of oil and gas is beginning to cause international concern.

Patti Domm : CNBC: 10 Sept. 2021

 As reported by BBC News,

"Oil prices slumped at the start of the coronavirus pandemic, but demand has been rising in recent months as economies around the world have started to reopen.

Global oil supplies have also taken a hit from hurricanes Ida and Nicholas passing through the Gulf of Mexico and damaging US oil infrastructure.

The price of Brent crude oil rose above $80 a barrel on Tuesday for the first time since October 2018." (BBC News : 28 Sept 2021) (my emphasis)

Sonja van Renssen  (left) also reports that,

"Certainly, the immediate [gas] crisis revolves around security of supply. This dates back to the Russia-Ukraine crisis in 2009. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2014 drove the point home. The vulnerability of gas supply to geopolitics is once again on display today. Plenty of factors help explain the current price crisis, including weather and rebounding post-pandemic demand, but Russia is definitely on the list. 

On Tuesday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said it believed Russia “could do more” to increase gas availability to Europe and ensure adequate supplies in time for winter. Russia has suggested the Nord Stream 2 pipeline could help." (Energy Monitor : 27 Sept 2021) (my emphasis)

 It is no wonder that Putin is now pressing harder for Nord Stream2 to become fully operational, just as he signs a new deal with Victor Orban of Hungary to supply Hungary with (cheap?) gas via the TurkStream pipeline, thus bypassing supplying Hungary via Ukraine's pipelines.

As reported by Ukrinform,

"Against the backdrop of an impending crisis over the Kremlin's barely concealed plans to make full use of Nord Stream 2 as a hybrid energy weapon against Ukraine's gas transmission system, Hungary's move looks insidious, to say the least.." (Ukrinform : 29 Sept 2021) (my emphasis)

Ukrinform further reports that,

"The Ministry of Foreign Affairs [Dmytro Kuleba (left)]of Ukraine reacted immediately to the news, stating it considered Budapest's step "purely political and economically unviable decision taken in favor of the Kremlin," adding that the move failed to comply with “the principles of the Treaty on Good Neighborliness and Cooperation between Ukraine and Hungary of December 6, 1991.”

Moreover, it was stressed that "the Hungarian-Russian gas agreement will have “a significant impact on the energy security of Ukraine and Europe.” (ibid Ukrinform)
 

Dmytro Kuleba is not alone in pointing out that Putin's manipulation of the price and supply of gas to the EU is a security issue for the EU.

Kate Abnett reports that,

"A group of European Parliament lawmakers has asked the European Commission to investigate Gazprom's role in soaring European gas prices, saying the company's behaviour had made them
suspect market manipulation.

In a letter to the EU's executive Commission, dated Sept. 16, around 40 of the Parliament's 700 lawmakers said they suspected Russia's Gazprom had acted to push up gas prices.

"We call on the European Commission to urgently open an investigation into possible deliberate market manipulation by Gazprom and potential violation of EU competition rules," said the letter." (Reuters : 17 September 2021) (my emphasis)

Which rather brings into sharp focus that Putin is now using Nord Stream2 as an energy weapon against the EU. 

Not only is he calling for the green light for Nord Stream2 to pump gas via Germany into the EU but, one suspects, also putting pressure on the EU to end sanctions against himself and his cronies.

Bear in mind that Putinversteher Merkel now acts as the Caretaker Chancellor of Germany until a post-election coalition can emerge, which will then appoint the new Chancellor for Germany. And Nord Stream2 is the pet project of BOTH Putin and Merkel.

Putin may, indeed, be riding high on the wave of the world-wide gas crisis.

However, Zelensky and US President Biden are countering the invasion threats of Putin that he will invade Ukraine should HIS "red" lines be crossed.

As reported by RFERL,

"The Kremlin has reiterated that any expansion of NATO military infrastructure in Ukraine would cross one of President Vladimir Putin's "red lines" as Belarus's authoritarian ruler Alyaksandr Lukashenka accused Washington of using training centers as a guise for setting up bases for the Western military alliance.

Speaking in Kyiv, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba sharply rejected the notion of a Russian "red line" outside of its own borders.

"Putin's 'red lines' are limited to Russia's borders," he tweeted.

"On our side of the Ukrainian-Russian border we can figure out ourselves what to do in the interests of the Ukrainian people, as well as Ukraine's and Europe's security." (RFERL : 27 September 2021) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, 

"Ukraine began joint military exercises with the United States and other NATO member troops last week, while Russia and Belarus held large-scale drills that alarmed the West." (ibid RFERL)

YouTube : 25 September 2021

Added to which, as reported by Daniel N. Hoffman (right),

"During a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House earlier this month, President Biden “firmly committed” to supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and “Euro-Atlantic aspiration.” Washington also reaffirmed Ukraine’s right to decide its own foreign policy without foreign interference." (Washington Times : 22 September 2021) (my emphasis)

Zelensky is also pushing back against Putin on the diplomatic front.

As reported by Peter Dickinson,

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy used his September 22 address at the United Nations General Assembly to criticize the international community’s ineffective response to Russian aggression in Ukraine and support calls for the reform of the UN itself, which he branded a “retired superhero.”

The Ukrainian leader painted a grim picture of the damage done to international security by the failure to stand up for international law and hold Vladimir Putin accountable for his attack on Ukraine. “No one in the world feels safe anymore. I emphasize: no one feels safe. And no one can hide behind international law as if behind a stone wall,” commented Zelenskyy." (Atlantic Council : 23 September 2021) (my emphasis)

Notwithstanding his speech at the UN, Zelensky continues to have an  uphill political struggle to gain more concrete support from the EU as Putin stands ready in the wings to cut off gas supplies to Ukraine this coming winter.

How will the EU respond to Putin cutting off, or severely limiting, gas supplies to Ukraine this coming winter?

This is the potential political hurdle that Zelensky may soon be facing.

(to be  continued)

Putin and Lukashenka are now staring into the abyss of all-out war with Ukraine.

 

In my blog post of 15th July, I wrote that,

"It is therefore not surprising that, as reported by Will Stewart and Imogen Braddick,

"VLADIMIR Putin could be heading for war with Ukraine as he plots a new land grab of the disputed region of Donbass, experts have warned.

In an article published this week, Putin described Russians and Ukrainians as "one people" and said he has "become convinced" that Ukraine "does not need" Donbass.

The Russian leader's chilling remarks have prompted speculation he is now plotting new military action after thousands of troops were recently marched to the border of the disputed Ukrainian region." (The Sun : 14 July 2021) (my emphasis)"

Alexandra Odynova : CBS News : April 12 2021

 And on the 24th August I reported that,

"More recently, Zelensky described Putin as,

"As for his feelings about Putin, Zelensky described his Russian counterpart as being “irrational” and “emotional, sometimes even highly emotional.”

“He is too emotional when it comes to Ukraine,” Zelensky added." (ibid Isabelle Khurshudyan) (my emphasis)"

Against this backdrop, as reported by Paul McLearly (left),

"Since taking office, the Biden administration has kept up Washington’s shipments of weapons and training to the Ukrainian military, including $275 million worth of equipment and support packages since March.

But some in Congress are looking to do more and have included an amendment attached to the 2022 defense bill that would pressure the Biden administration to sell or transfer new air and missile defense systems to Ukraine, including potentially sending an Iron Dome battery currently being operated by the U.S. Army.

..... Since being deployed in Israel in 2011, the system, built by the Israeli defense company Rafael in partnership with Raytheon, has proven itself one of the world’s most effective killers of short-range missiles. The Israeli military has said Iron Dome has knocked down about 90 percent of missiles fired into Israel over the past several years." (Politico : 14 September 2021) (my emphasis)

The necessity of supplying Zelensky with Iron Dome comes as Putin and  Lukashenka, the beleaguered President of Belarus, join military forces in surrounding Ukraine's Northern border.

As reported by Lisa Yasko (left),

"Belarus dictator Alyaksandr Lukashenka has announced plans to deploy Russian S-400 air defense systems along the Ukrainian border, raising fears that he is prepared to play a more prominent role in Russia’s ongoing hybrid war against Ukraine.

Speaking on September 12 during joint Belarusian-Russian military exercises, Lukashenka said the S-400 systems were part of an anticipated USD 1 billion arms package agreed during his most recent summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
......

It would appear that a significant portion of these security discussions focused on Ukraine. “We should get ready,” Lukashenka (right) commented on Sunday. “Our border with Ukraine is 1,200 kilometers. And we discussed [with Putin] that we could use the S-400s.”  (Atlantic Council : 14 September 2021) (my emphasis)

Besides the facts that Biden is now President of the US, and Putin's closest supporter in the EU, Angela Merkel, will soon be off the political stage in Germany and the EU, the Council of Europe released the following press statement :-

"Ukraine: EU sanctions over territorial integrity prolonged for a further six months

The Council today decided to prolong the sanctions targeting those responsible for undermining or threatening the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine for a further six months until 15 March 2022.

The existing restrictive measures provide for travel restrictions, the freezing of assets, and a ban on making funds or other economic resources available to the listed persons and entities. Sanctions will continue to apply to 177 individuals and 48 entities.

The legal acts were adopted by the Council by written procedure." (European Council : 10 September 2021) (my emphasis)

As Lukashenka and Putin deploy Russian S-400's near the Ukrainian-Belarus border, and thousands of troops were recently marched to the border of the disputed Ukrainian region

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Friday that all-out war with neighbouring Russia was a possibility, and that he wanted to have a substantive meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Asked at the Yalta European Strategy (YES) summit if there could really be all out-war with Russia, which seized the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine in 2014 and backs pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine's east, Zelenskiy said: "I think there can be." (Pavel Polityuk : Reuters : 10 September 2021) (my emphasis) 

US President Biden now needs to disprove Dmytro Kuleba (right), Ukraine’s youngest ever foreign minister, who recently stated that,

"This country [Ukraine] has learnt a number of bitter lessons that western promises are likely unfulfilled,” he says. “We do not believe in promises.”

The 40-year-old says Ukraine has come to understand [Ukraine] can only rely on itself. What that means in the short to mid-term, he says, is learning to become an agile military state like Israel: “The circumstances leave no choice. Army, diplomacy and the Ukrainian people — that’s what we have to survive.” (Oliver Carroll : The Independent : 14 September 2021) (my emphasis)

Putin, together with Lukashenka, are now staring into the abyss of all-out war with Ukraine.

The US and Western Europe now, more than ever, need to step up to the plate to support Ukraine both in deed and in supplying Zelensky with the necessary military equipment to defend Ukraine.

(to be continued)