Is Putin now ready to cut off gas supplies to Ukraine?

The current spike in the global price of oil and gas is beginning to cause international concern.

Patti Domm : CNBC: 10 Sept. 2021

 As reported by BBC News,

"Oil prices slumped at the start of the coronavirus pandemic, but demand has been rising in recent months as economies around the world have started to reopen.

Global oil supplies have also taken a hit from hurricanes Ida and Nicholas passing through the Gulf of Mexico and damaging US oil infrastructure.

The price of Brent crude oil rose above $80 a barrel on Tuesday for the first time since October 2018." (BBC News : 28 Sept 2021) (my emphasis)

Sonja van Renssen  (left) also reports that,

"Certainly, the immediate [gas] crisis revolves around security of supply. This dates back to the Russia-Ukraine crisis in 2009. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2014 drove the point home. The vulnerability of gas supply to geopolitics is once again on display today. Plenty of factors help explain the current price crisis, including weather and rebounding post-pandemic demand, but Russia is definitely on the list. 

On Tuesday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said it believed Russia “could do more” to increase gas availability to Europe and ensure adequate supplies in time for winter. Russia has suggested the Nord Stream 2 pipeline could help." (Energy Monitor : 27 Sept 2021) (my emphasis)

 It is no wonder that Putin is now pressing harder for Nord Stream2 to become fully operational, just as he signs a new deal with Victor Orban of Hungary to supply Hungary with (cheap?) gas via the TurkStream pipeline, thus bypassing supplying Hungary via Ukraine's pipelines.

As reported by Ukrinform,

"Against the backdrop of an impending crisis over the Kremlin's barely concealed plans to make full use of Nord Stream 2 as a hybrid energy weapon against Ukraine's gas transmission system, Hungary's move looks insidious, to say the least.." (Ukrinform : 29 Sept 2021) (my emphasis)

Ukrinform further reports that,

"The Ministry of Foreign Affairs [Dmytro Kuleba (left)]of Ukraine reacted immediately to the news, stating it considered Budapest's step "purely political and economically unviable decision taken in favor of the Kremlin," adding that the move failed to comply with “the principles of the Treaty on Good Neighborliness and Cooperation between Ukraine and Hungary of December 6, 1991.”

Moreover, it was stressed that "the Hungarian-Russian gas agreement will have “a significant impact on the energy security of Ukraine and Europe.” (ibid Ukrinform)
 

Dmytro Kuleba is not alone in pointing out that Putin's manipulation of the price and supply of gas to the EU is a security issue for the EU.

Kate Abnett reports that,

"A group of European Parliament lawmakers has asked the European Commission to investigate Gazprom's role in soaring European gas prices, saying the company's behaviour had made them
suspect market manipulation.

In a letter to the EU's executive Commission, dated Sept. 16, around 40 of the Parliament's 700 lawmakers said they suspected Russia's Gazprom had acted to push up gas prices.

"We call on the European Commission to urgently open an investigation into possible deliberate market manipulation by Gazprom and potential violation of EU competition rules," said the letter." (Reuters : 17 September 2021) (my emphasis)

Which rather brings into sharp focus that Putin is now using Nord Stream2 as an energy weapon against the EU. 

Not only is he calling for the green light for Nord Stream2 to pump gas via Germany into the EU but, one suspects, also putting pressure on the EU to end sanctions against himself and his cronies.

Bear in mind that Putinversteher Merkel now acts as the Caretaker Chancellor of Germany until a post-election coalition can emerge, which will then appoint the new Chancellor for Germany. And Nord Stream2 is the pet project of BOTH Putin and Merkel.

Putin may, indeed, be riding high on the wave of the world-wide gas crisis.

However, Zelensky and US President Biden are countering the invasion threats of Putin that he will invade Ukraine should HIS "red" lines be crossed.

As reported by RFERL,

"The Kremlin has reiterated that any expansion of NATO military infrastructure in Ukraine would cross one of President Vladimir Putin's "red lines" as Belarus's authoritarian ruler Alyaksandr Lukashenka accused Washington of using training centers as a guise for setting up bases for the Western military alliance.

Speaking in Kyiv, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba sharply rejected the notion of a Russian "red line" outside of its own borders.

"Putin's 'red lines' are limited to Russia's borders," he tweeted.

"On our side of the Ukrainian-Russian border we can figure out ourselves what to do in the interests of the Ukrainian people, as well as Ukraine's and Europe's security." (RFERL : 27 September 2021) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, 

"Ukraine began joint military exercises with the United States and other NATO member troops last week, while Russia and Belarus held large-scale drills that alarmed the West." (ibid RFERL)

YouTube : 25 September 2021

Added to which, as reported by Daniel N. Hoffman (right),

"During a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House earlier this month, President Biden “firmly committed” to supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and “Euro-Atlantic aspiration.” Washington also reaffirmed Ukraine’s right to decide its own foreign policy without foreign interference." (Washington Times : 22 September 2021) (my emphasis)

Zelensky is also pushing back against Putin on the diplomatic front.

As reported by Peter Dickinson,

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy used his September 22 address at the United Nations General Assembly to criticize the international community’s ineffective response to Russian aggression in Ukraine and support calls for the reform of the UN itself, which he branded a “retired superhero.”

The Ukrainian leader painted a grim picture of the damage done to international security by the failure to stand up for international law and hold Vladimir Putin accountable for his attack on Ukraine. “No one in the world feels safe anymore. I emphasize: no one feels safe. And no one can hide behind international law as if behind a stone wall,” commented Zelenskyy." (Atlantic Council : 23 September 2021) (my emphasis)

Notwithstanding his speech at the UN, Zelensky continues to have an  uphill political struggle to gain more concrete support from the EU as Putin stands ready in the wings to cut off gas supplies to Ukraine this coming winter.

How will the EU respond to Putin cutting off, or severely limiting, gas supplies to Ukraine this coming winter?

This is the potential political hurdle that Zelensky may soon be facing.

(to be  continued)