Zelensky should not hold his breath over the outcome of the upcoming German elections.

The dust has now settled on the meeting between US President Biden and Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky.

During this meeting US President Biden promised that,

"Alexander Vershbow, Distinguished Fellow, Atlantic Council: The Zelenskyy-Biden meeting was a success for both sides. Biden made clear that Ukraine’s security remains a US priority, dispelling doubts about the US commitment that had arisen from the Nord Stream 2 decision, the chaotic exit from Afghanistan, and the perceived prioritization of Russia since Biden’s meeting with Putin in June.

The two presidents issued a meaty joint statement laying out a robust agenda for renewed cooperation on multiple fronts including defense, energy security, climate change, investment, space, and research and development. The sides agreed to disagree on whether to stop Nord Stream 2, focusing instead on mitigating the risks and imposing costs on Moscow if it uses the pipeline as a geopolitical weapon. Zelenskyy reaffirmed his commitment to reforms and the rule of law that will be essential if Ukraine is to take full advantage of the initiatives in the joint statement and attract foreign investment." (Peter Dickinson : Atlantic Council : 2nd September 2021) (my emphasis)

Whether focussing on the geopolitical risks of Nord Stream2 will somehow square with the soon to be elected new Chancellor of Germany really remains to be seen.

Just prior to their meeting, Eric  Tucker (right) reported that,

"The United States is promising up to $60 million in military aid to Ukraine in advance of a White House meeting on Wednesday between President Joe Biden and his counterpart in Kyiv, Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
.......
“Russia’s buildup along the Ukrainian border has highlighted capability shortfalls in the Ukrainian military’s ability to defend against a Russian incursion,” the notification states. “Ukraine’s significant capability gaps must be urgently addressed to reinforce deterrence in light of the current Russian threat.” (AP News : 1 Sept 2021) (my emphasis)

This military aid to Ukraine President Zelensky promised by US President Biden comes at a moment when,

"In addition to previously revealed satellite imagery showing a large buildup of aircraft on the airfield near Novofedorivka (on the western coast), the Orbital Insight analysis (with images from PLANET and partner AllSource Analysis) shows trucks near the Opuk training ground practicing to use smoke to obscure troop movements
... 

“When you have this many trucks out there doing smoke operations, that’s pretty significant because that’s a costly exercise to do,” said Soller, a former Army and NGA intelligence officer. “Smoke operations in general are used for two things: One is offensive operations, and one is retrograde. As you can imagine, highly unlikely Russians were training to retrograde out of Crimea.”
...
“With 100,000 Russian troops in the area during this exercise...yes, this was a demonstration to show that they were training to conduct operations into Ukraine if necessary,” he said. (Patrick Tucker : Defence One : 2 Sept 2021) (my emphasis)

Now recall that in my blog entry of  15 July 2021 I wrote that,

"The Russian leader's chilling remarks have prompted speculation he is now plotting new military action after thousands of troops were recently marched to the border of the disputed Ukrainian region." (The Sun : 14 July 2021) (my emphasis)

 What is highly dis-concerting is that,

"Putin ally, [Mikhail Khodarenok] warns that [the current] crisis with Ukraine could go NUCLEAR as tensions rise" (ibid Will Stewart and Imogen Braddick)

Recall that in April of this year, Putin massed thousands of combat-ready troops on the Russian-Ukraine border. Now these troops are being supplemented by more Russian troops and hardware being built up in Russian occupied Ukrainian Crimea." (blog entry 15 July 2021)

As Mikhail Khodarenok warned,

" ..... [the current] crisis with Ukraine could go NUCLEAR as tensions rise" (ibid Will Stewart and Imogen Braddick)

It would seem that Putin is living up to his "nuclear threat" posture, as indirectly reported by Patrick Tucker, brought about no doubt by the fact that Emperor Xi of China has his eyes on Afghanistan now that the Taliban are in control of that country.

As reported by Derek Grossman,

"With a Taliban takeover looming, China received some good news two weeks ago: Taliban spokesman Suhail Shaheen (left) said in an interview that “China is a friendly country and we welcome it for reconstruction and developing Afghanistan … if [the Chinese] have investments, of course we will ensure their safety.” Moreover, on the sensitive issue of whether the Taliban might support alleged Uyghur militants against China in neighboring Xinjiang, Shaheen noted, “We care about the oppression of Muslims, be it in Palestine, in Myanmar, or in China, and we care about the oppression of non-Muslims anywhere in the world. But what we are not going to do is interfere in China’s internal affairs.” These words were clearly intended to please Beijing, which appears to be starting off on exactly the right foot with the Taliban should the group regain control over Afghanistan. (Foreign Policy News: 21 July 2021) (my emphasis)

This Taliban overture to Emperor Xi of China has rather spiked the political guns of Putin to use the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan against US President Biden and, in so doing, divert his eyes away from Ukraine.

The upcoming Bundestag elections in Germany could pose an even bigger problem for Putin.

As reported by AP,

"German Chancellor Angela Merkel expressed full support Sunday for Armin Laschet, the center-right Union bloc’s candidate who is hoping to succeed her as chancellor in this month’s German national election.

Merkel and Armin Laschet

Laschet, who also leads the Christian Democratic Union party, is lagging behind the center-left Social Democrats in the polls. He has received particularly unfavorable reviews after a series of slips on the campaign trail in recent months. " (AP : 5 Sept 2021) (my emphasis)

A Laschet failure to become Chancellor of Germany will slightly .... only slightly ... muddy the political waters between Germany and Putin.

The "bonhomie" that Putin enjoyed between Merkel and himself will be gone.

Or will a new centre-left Chancellor of Germany simply follow in the footsteps of the Socialist Chancellor of Germany from 1998 to 2009, Gerhard Schröder, who is deeply involved in Putin's Gazprom and fully supportive of Putin's political actions in Ukraine.

In which case, the "bonhomie" that existed between Merkel and Putin may actually be further reinforced by the centre-left SDU candidate,  Olaf Scholz. (left)

Olaf Scholz, the Socialists candidate for chancellor  and current German Finance Minister and Vice-Chancellor, has a clear lead over other candidates in personal ratings.

For Zelensky, Merkel always covered Putin's economic and political back when it came to Ukraine, especially when it came to Ukraine's Crimea. To a certain extent, Merkel did not hide her tacit support of Putin.

Will an Olaf Scholz (SDU) Chancellorship of Germany also embrace Putin as does Gerhard Schröder?

Like Merkel, Olaf Scholz knows by whom a large slice of Germany's economic bread is buttered viz Putin!

An Olaf Scholz Chancellorship of Germany will NOT stray from the Merkel-Putin economic-political partnership.

Zelensky should not hold his breath that in Germany, things will change in favour of Ukraine once Merkel finally leaves the political stage.

(to be continued)