Is Putin now ready to cut off gas supplies to Ukraine?

The current spike in the global price of oil and gas is beginning to cause international concern.

Patti Domm : CNBC: 10 Sept. 2021

 As reported by BBC News,

"Oil prices slumped at the start of the coronavirus pandemic, but demand has been rising in recent months as economies around the world have started to reopen.

Global oil supplies have also taken a hit from hurricanes Ida and Nicholas passing through the Gulf of Mexico and damaging US oil infrastructure.

The price of Brent crude oil rose above $80 a barrel on Tuesday for the first time since October 2018." (BBC News : 28 Sept 2021) (my emphasis)

Sonja van Renssen  (left) also reports that,

"Certainly, the immediate [gas] crisis revolves around security of supply. This dates back to the Russia-Ukraine crisis in 2009. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2014 drove the point home. The vulnerability of gas supply to geopolitics is once again on display today. Plenty of factors help explain the current price crisis, including weather and rebounding post-pandemic demand, but Russia is definitely on the list. 

On Tuesday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said it believed Russia “could do more” to increase gas availability to Europe and ensure adequate supplies in time for winter. Russia has suggested the Nord Stream 2 pipeline could help." (Energy Monitor : 27 Sept 2021) (my emphasis)

 It is no wonder that Putin is now pressing harder for Nord Stream2 to become fully operational, just as he signs a new deal with Victor Orban of Hungary to supply Hungary with (cheap?) gas via the TurkStream pipeline, thus bypassing supplying Hungary via Ukraine's pipelines.

As reported by Ukrinform,

"Against the backdrop of an impending crisis over the Kremlin's barely concealed plans to make full use of Nord Stream 2 as a hybrid energy weapon against Ukraine's gas transmission system, Hungary's move looks insidious, to say the least.." (Ukrinform : 29 Sept 2021) (my emphasis)

Ukrinform further reports that,

"The Ministry of Foreign Affairs [Dmytro Kuleba (left)]of Ukraine reacted immediately to the news, stating it considered Budapest's step "purely political and economically unviable decision taken in favor of the Kremlin," adding that the move failed to comply with “the principles of the Treaty on Good Neighborliness and Cooperation between Ukraine and Hungary of December 6, 1991.”

Moreover, it was stressed that "the Hungarian-Russian gas agreement will have “a significant impact on the energy security of Ukraine and Europe.” (ibid Ukrinform)
 

Dmytro Kuleba is not alone in pointing out that Putin's manipulation of the price and supply of gas to the EU is a security issue for the EU.

Kate Abnett reports that,

"A group of European Parliament lawmakers has asked the European Commission to investigate Gazprom's role in soaring European gas prices, saying the company's behaviour had made them
suspect market manipulation.

In a letter to the EU's executive Commission, dated Sept. 16, around 40 of the Parliament's 700 lawmakers said they suspected Russia's Gazprom had acted to push up gas prices.

"We call on the European Commission to urgently open an investigation into possible deliberate market manipulation by Gazprom and potential violation of EU competition rules," said the letter." (Reuters : 17 September 2021) (my emphasis)

Which rather brings into sharp focus that Putin is now using Nord Stream2 as an energy weapon against the EU. 

Not only is he calling for the green light for Nord Stream2 to pump gas via Germany into the EU but, one suspects, also putting pressure on the EU to end sanctions against himself and his cronies.

Bear in mind that Putinversteher Merkel now acts as the Caretaker Chancellor of Germany until a post-election coalition can emerge, which will then appoint the new Chancellor for Germany. And Nord Stream2 is the pet project of BOTH Putin and Merkel.

Putin may, indeed, be riding high on the wave of the world-wide gas crisis.

However, Zelensky and US President Biden are countering the invasion threats of Putin that he will invade Ukraine should HIS "red" lines be crossed.

As reported by RFERL,

"The Kremlin has reiterated that any expansion of NATO military infrastructure in Ukraine would cross one of President Vladimir Putin's "red lines" as Belarus's authoritarian ruler Alyaksandr Lukashenka accused Washington of using training centers as a guise for setting up bases for the Western military alliance.

Speaking in Kyiv, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba sharply rejected the notion of a Russian "red line" outside of its own borders.

"Putin's 'red lines' are limited to Russia's borders," he tweeted.

"On our side of the Ukrainian-Russian border we can figure out ourselves what to do in the interests of the Ukrainian people, as well as Ukraine's and Europe's security." (RFERL : 27 September 2021) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, 

"Ukraine began joint military exercises with the United States and other NATO member troops last week, while Russia and Belarus held large-scale drills that alarmed the West." (ibid RFERL)

YouTube : 25 September 2021

Added to which, as reported by Daniel N. Hoffman (right),

"During a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House earlier this month, President Biden “firmly committed” to supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and “Euro-Atlantic aspiration.” Washington also reaffirmed Ukraine’s right to decide its own foreign policy without foreign interference." (Washington Times : 22 September 2021) (my emphasis)

Zelensky is also pushing back against Putin on the diplomatic front.

As reported by Peter Dickinson,

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy used his September 22 address at the United Nations General Assembly to criticize the international community’s ineffective response to Russian aggression in Ukraine and support calls for the reform of the UN itself, which he branded a “retired superhero.”

The Ukrainian leader painted a grim picture of the damage done to international security by the failure to stand up for international law and hold Vladimir Putin accountable for his attack on Ukraine. “No one in the world feels safe anymore. I emphasize: no one feels safe. And no one can hide behind international law as if behind a stone wall,” commented Zelenskyy." (Atlantic Council : 23 September 2021) (my emphasis)

Notwithstanding his speech at the UN, Zelensky continues to have an  uphill political struggle to gain more concrete support from the EU as Putin stands ready in the wings to cut off gas supplies to Ukraine this coming winter.

How will the EU respond to Putin cutting off, or severely limiting, gas supplies to Ukraine this coming winter?

This is the potential political hurdle that Zelensky may soon be facing.

(to be  continued)

Putin and Lukashenka are now staring into the abyss of all-out war with Ukraine.

 

In my blog post of 15th July, I wrote that,

"It is therefore not surprising that, as reported by Will Stewart and Imogen Braddick,

"VLADIMIR Putin could be heading for war with Ukraine as he plots a new land grab of the disputed region of Donbass, experts have warned.

In an article published this week, Putin described Russians and Ukrainians as "one people" and said he has "become convinced" that Ukraine "does not need" Donbass.

The Russian leader's chilling remarks have prompted speculation he is now plotting new military action after thousands of troops were recently marched to the border of the disputed Ukrainian region." (The Sun : 14 July 2021) (my emphasis)"

Alexandra Odynova : CBS News : April 12 2021

 And on the 24th August I reported that,

"More recently, Zelensky described Putin as,

"As for his feelings about Putin, Zelensky described his Russian counterpart as being “irrational” and “emotional, sometimes even highly emotional.”

“He is too emotional when it comes to Ukraine,” Zelensky added." (ibid Isabelle Khurshudyan) (my emphasis)"

Against this backdrop, as reported by Paul McLearly (left),

"Since taking office, the Biden administration has kept up Washington’s shipments of weapons and training to the Ukrainian military, including $275 million worth of equipment and support packages since March.

But some in Congress are looking to do more and have included an amendment attached to the 2022 defense bill that would pressure the Biden administration to sell or transfer new air and missile defense systems to Ukraine, including potentially sending an Iron Dome battery currently being operated by the U.S. Army.

..... Since being deployed in Israel in 2011, the system, built by the Israeli defense company Rafael in partnership with Raytheon, has proven itself one of the world’s most effective killers of short-range missiles. The Israeli military has said Iron Dome has knocked down about 90 percent of missiles fired into Israel over the past several years." (Politico : 14 September 2021) (my emphasis)

The necessity of supplying Zelensky with Iron Dome comes as Putin and  Lukashenka, the beleaguered President of Belarus, join military forces in surrounding Ukraine's Northern border.

As reported by Lisa Yasko (left),

"Belarus dictator Alyaksandr Lukashenka has announced plans to deploy Russian S-400 air defense systems along the Ukrainian border, raising fears that he is prepared to play a more prominent role in Russia’s ongoing hybrid war against Ukraine.

Speaking on September 12 during joint Belarusian-Russian military exercises, Lukashenka said the S-400 systems were part of an anticipated USD 1 billion arms package agreed during his most recent summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
......

It would appear that a significant portion of these security discussions focused on Ukraine. “We should get ready,” Lukashenka (right) commented on Sunday. “Our border with Ukraine is 1,200 kilometers. And we discussed [with Putin] that we could use the S-400s.”  (Atlantic Council : 14 September 2021) (my emphasis)

Besides the facts that Biden is now President of the US, and Putin's closest supporter in the EU, Angela Merkel, will soon be off the political stage in Germany and the EU, the Council of Europe released the following press statement :-

"Ukraine: EU sanctions over territorial integrity prolonged for a further six months

The Council today decided to prolong the sanctions targeting those responsible for undermining or threatening the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine for a further six months until 15 March 2022.

The existing restrictive measures provide for travel restrictions, the freezing of assets, and a ban on making funds or other economic resources available to the listed persons and entities. Sanctions will continue to apply to 177 individuals and 48 entities.

The legal acts were adopted by the Council by written procedure." (European Council : 10 September 2021) (my emphasis)

As Lukashenka and Putin deploy Russian S-400's near the Ukrainian-Belarus border, and thousands of troops were recently marched to the border of the disputed Ukrainian region

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Friday that all-out war with neighbouring Russia was a possibility, and that he wanted to have a substantive meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Asked at the Yalta European Strategy (YES) summit if there could really be all out-war with Russia, which seized the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine in 2014 and backs pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine's east, Zelenskiy said: "I think there can be." (Pavel Polityuk : Reuters : 10 September 2021) (my emphasis) 

US President Biden now needs to disprove Dmytro Kuleba (right), Ukraine’s youngest ever foreign minister, who recently stated that,

"This country [Ukraine] has learnt a number of bitter lessons that western promises are likely unfulfilled,” he says. “We do not believe in promises.”

The 40-year-old says Ukraine has come to understand [Ukraine] can only rely on itself. What that means in the short to mid-term, he says, is learning to become an agile military state like Israel: “The circumstances leave no choice. Army, diplomacy and the Ukrainian people — that’s what we have to survive.” (Oliver Carroll : The Independent : 14 September 2021) (my emphasis)

Putin, together with Lukashenka, are now staring into the abyss of all-out war with Ukraine.

The US and Western Europe now, more than ever, need to step up to the plate to support Ukraine both in deed and in supplying Zelensky with the necessary military equipment to defend Ukraine.

(to be continued)

Zelensky should not hold his breath over the outcome of the upcoming German elections.

The dust has now settled on the meeting between US President Biden and Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky.

During this meeting US President Biden promised that,

"Alexander Vershbow, Distinguished Fellow, Atlantic Council: The Zelenskyy-Biden meeting was a success for both sides. Biden made clear that Ukraine’s security remains a US priority, dispelling doubts about the US commitment that had arisen from the Nord Stream 2 decision, the chaotic exit from Afghanistan, and the perceived prioritization of Russia since Biden’s meeting with Putin in June.

The two presidents issued a meaty joint statement laying out a robust agenda for renewed cooperation on multiple fronts including defense, energy security, climate change, investment, space, and research and development. The sides agreed to disagree on whether to stop Nord Stream 2, focusing instead on mitigating the risks and imposing costs on Moscow if it uses the pipeline as a geopolitical weapon. Zelenskyy reaffirmed his commitment to reforms and the rule of law that will be essential if Ukraine is to take full advantage of the initiatives in the joint statement and attract foreign investment." (Peter Dickinson : Atlantic Council : 2nd September 2021) (my emphasis)

Whether focussing on the geopolitical risks of Nord Stream2 will somehow square with the soon to be elected new Chancellor of Germany really remains to be seen.

Just prior to their meeting, Eric  Tucker (right) reported that,

"The United States is promising up to $60 million in military aid to Ukraine in advance of a White House meeting on Wednesday between President Joe Biden and his counterpart in Kyiv, Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
.......
“Russia’s buildup along the Ukrainian border has highlighted capability shortfalls in the Ukrainian military’s ability to defend against a Russian incursion,” the notification states. “Ukraine’s significant capability gaps must be urgently addressed to reinforce deterrence in light of the current Russian threat.” (AP News : 1 Sept 2021) (my emphasis)

This military aid to Ukraine President Zelensky promised by US President Biden comes at a moment when,

"In addition to previously revealed satellite imagery showing a large buildup of aircraft on the airfield near Novofedorivka (on the western coast), the Orbital Insight analysis (with images from PLANET and partner AllSource Analysis) shows trucks near the Opuk training ground practicing to use smoke to obscure troop movements
... 

“When you have this many trucks out there doing smoke operations, that’s pretty significant because that’s a costly exercise to do,” said Soller, a former Army and NGA intelligence officer. “Smoke operations in general are used for two things: One is offensive operations, and one is retrograde. As you can imagine, highly unlikely Russians were training to retrograde out of Crimea.”
...
“With 100,000 Russian troops in the area during this exercise...yes, this was a demonstration to show that they were training to conduct operations into Ukraine if necessary,” he said. (Patrick Tucker : Defence One : 2 Sept 2021) (my emphasis)

Now recall that in my blog entry of  15 July 2021 I wrote that,

"The Russian leader's chilling remarks have prompted speculation he is now plotting new military action after thousands of troops were recently marched to the border of the disputed Ukrainian region." (The Sun : 14 July 2021) (my emphasis)

 What is highly dis-concerting is that,

"Putin ally, [Mikhail Khodarenok] warns that [the current] crisis with Ukraine could go NUCLEAR as tensions rise" (ibid Will Stewart and Imogen Braddick)

Recall that in April of this year, Putin massed thousands of combat-ready troops on the Russian-Ukraine border. Now these troops are being supplemented by more Russian troops and hardware being built up in Russian occupied Ukrainian Crimea." (blog entry 15 July 2021)

As Mikhail Khodarenok warned,

" ..... [the current] crisis with Ukraine could go NUCLEAR as tensions rise" (ibid Will Stewart and Imogen Braddick)

It would seem that Putin is living up to his "nuclear threat" posture, as indirectly reported by Patrick Tucker, brought about no doubt by the fact that Emperor Xi of China has his eyes on Afghanistan now that the Taliban are in control of that country.

As reported by Derek Grossman,

"With a Taliban takeover looming, China received some good news two weeks ago: Taliban spokesman Suhail Shaheen (left) said in an interview that “China is a friendly country and we welcome it for reconstruction and developing Afghanistan … if [the Chinese] have investments, of course we will ensure their safety.” Moreover, on the sensitive issue of whether the Taliban might support alleged Uyghur militants against China in neighboring Xinjiang, Shaheen noted, “We care about the oppression of Muslims, be it in Palestine, in Myanmar, or in China, and we care about the oppression of non-Muslims anywhere in the world. But what we are not going to do is interfere in China’s internal affairs.” These words were clearly intended to please Beijing, which appears to be starting off on exactly the right foot with the Taliban should the group regain control over Afghanistan. (Foreign Policy News: 21 July 2021) (my emphasis)

This Taliban overture to Emperor Xi of China has rather spiked the political guns of Putin to use the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan against US President Biden and, in so doing, divert his eyes away from Ukraine.

The upcoming Bundestag elections in Germany could pose an even bigger problem for Putin.

As reported by AP,

"German Chancellor Angela Merkel expressed full support Sunday for Armin Laschet, the center-right Union bloc’s candidate who is hoping to succeed her as chancellor in this month’s German national election.

Merkel and Armin Laschet

Laschet, who also leads the Christian Democratic Union party, is lagging behind the center-left Social Democrats in the polls. He has received particularly unfavorable reviews after a series of slips on the campaign trail in recent months. " (AP : 5 Sept 2021) (my emphasis)

A Laschet failure to become Chancellor of Germany will slightly .... only slightly ... muddy the political waters between Germany and Putin.

The "bonhomie" that Putin enjoyed between Merkel and himself will be gone.

Or will a new centre-left Chancellor of Germany simply follow in the footsteps of the Socialist Chancellor of Germany from 1998 to 2009, Gerhard Schröder, who is deeply involved in Putin's Gazprom and fully supportive of Putin's political actions in Ukraine.

In which case, the "bonhomie" that existed between Merkel and Putin may actually be further reinforced by the centre-left SDU candidate,  Olaf Scholz. (left)

Olaf Scholz, the Socialists candidate for chancellor  and current German Finance Minister and Vice-Chancellor, has a clear lead over other candidates in personal ratings.

For Zelensky, Merkel always covered Putin's economic and political back when it came to Ukraine, especially when it came to Ukraine's Crimea. To a certain extent, Merkel did not hide her tacit support of Putin.

Will an Olaf Scholz (SDU) Chancellorship of Germany also embrace Putin as does Gerhard Schröder?

Like Merkel, Olaf Scholz knows by whom a large slice of Germany's economic bread is buttered viz Putin!

An Olaf Scholz Chancellorship of Germany will NOT stray from the Merkel-Putin economic-political partnership.

Zelensky should not hold his breath that in Germany, things will change in favour of Ukraine once Merkel finally leaves the political stage.

(to be continued)